Tampa Bay Lightning Playoff Chances 2018-2019

Beat Florida Panthers 3-1, playoff odds up 0.6 to 99.5%

35 points 17 4-1

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Chicago Blackhawks vs Tampa Bay Lightning	-2.4+0.3+0.2+2.9+3.1+3.1		-1.6-0.3-0.5+1.6+1.8+2.2		-0.3+0.0*+0.0+0.4+0.4+0.4
Montreal Canadiens vs Buffalo Sabres	+0.3+0.0+0.1-0.5*-0.1-0.1				+0.1+0.0*+0.0-0.1-0.0-0.0
Toronto Maple Leafs vs Columbus Blue Jackets	-0.2-0.0-0.1+0.2+0.1+0.3		+0.1+0.1-0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1
Ottawa Senators vs Dallas Stars	-0.1-0.4-0.1+0.2-0.0+0.2		+0.2+0.1-0.0-0.3*-0.1-0.1
Florida Panthers vs Carolina Hurricanes					-0.0-0.0-0.0+0.0-0.0+0.1
Colorado Avalanche vs Arizona Coyotes			-0.1+0.0-0.1+0.2+0.0+0.1
Pittsburgh Penguins vs Boston Bruins			+0.1+0.1-0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1		+0.1+0.0-0.0-0.1-0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Tampa Bay Lightning finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

131	-155						In		Yes		100																864	*
130		46	11		-	3	In		99.1	%	100	0															450	*
129		45	11		-	4	In		99.8		100	0															803	*
128		45	12		-	3	In		99.6		100	0	0														1,266	*
127		44	12		-	4	In		99.6		100	0															2,023	*
126		44	13		-	3	In		99.3		99	1															3,029	*
125		43	13		-	4	In		98.7		99	1	0														4,487	*
124		42	13		-	5	In		98.0		98	1	0														6,645	*
123		42	14		-	4	In		97.3		98	2	0														9,212	*
122		41	14		-	5	In		95.8		97	3	0														13,129	*
121		41	15		-	4	In		94.0		96	4	0														17,628	*
120		40	15		-	5	In		91.5		94	5	0														23,505	*
119		40	16		-	4	In		88.2		92	7	1														30,785	*
118		39	16		-	5	In		84.1		89	10	1														38,804	*
117		39	17		-	4	In		78.7		86	13	1	0													48,222	*
116		38	17		-	5	In		72.7		82	16	2														58,392	*
115		38	18		-	4	In		64.9		77	20	3	0													69,909	*
114		37	18		-	5	In		56.7		72	24	4	0													81,276	*
113		37	19		-	4	In		47.3		65	29	6	0	0												93,853	*
112		36	19		-	5	In		38.1		59	34	8	0	0												104,277	*
111		36	20		-	4	In		29.0		51	39	10	0	0												115,120	*
110		35	20		-	5	In		20.4		43	44	13	0	0												123,752	*
109		35	21		-	4	In		13.7		36	48	16	1	0												130,780	*
108		34	21		-	5	In		8.2		28	51	19	2	0												135,761	*
107		34	22		-	4	In		4.6		22	53	22	3	0	0	0										137,901	*
106		33	22		-	5	In		2.2		16	54	25	5	0	0											137,191	*
105		33	23		-	4	In		1.0		11	53	27	8	1	0	0										134,616	*
104		32	23		-	5	In		0.3		7	51	28	13	1	0	0										129,592	*
103		32	24		-	4	In		0.1		4	47	29	18	2	0	0										122,142	*
102		31	24		-	5	In		0.0		3	42	27	25	3	0	0										112,736	*
101		31	25		-	4	In		0.0		1	37	24	33	4	1	0										102,943	*
100		30	25		-	5	In		No		1	32	21	40	6	1	0	0									91,160	*
99		30	26		-	4	In		No		0	26	16	47	7	2	0	0									80,469	*
98		29	26		-	5	In		No		0	20	12	53	9	5	1	0									68,994	*
97		29	27		-	4	100.0	%	No		0	15	8	56	11	8	1	0	0								58,122	*
96		28	27		-	5	100.0		No		0	11	5	56	12	13	2	0	0								47,980	*
95		28	28		-	4	100.0		No		0	8	3	53	12	19	4	1	0								39,453	*
94		27	28		-	5	99.8		No			5	2	49	10	26	6	2	0	0							31,450	*
93		27	29		-	4	99.4		No			3	1	42	9	32	8	4	1	0							24,524	*
92		26	29		-	5	98.4		No			2	0	35	6	38	10	7	2	0							18,757	*
91		26	30		-	4	96.5		No			1	0	28	4	41	11	11	3	0	0						14,539	*
90		25	30		-	5	92.5		No			1	0	21	2	40	12	17	6	1	0						10,667	*
89		25	31		-	4	85.8		No			0	0	14	1	38	10	21	11	2	0	0					7,719	*
88		24	31		-	5	75.9		No			0		9	1	34	8	24	18	5	1	0					5,565	*
87		24	32		-	4	63.2		No					6	0	27	6	24	25	10	2	0					3,916	*
86		23	32		-	5	49.5		No					3	0	21	3	22	28	17	5	1	0				2,649	*
85		23	33		-	4	34.7		No					2		15	2	16	28	24	11	3	0				1,828	*
84		22	33		-	5	19.8		No					1		9	1	9	26	30	18	5	1				1,212	*
83		22	34		-	4	12.7		No					1		6	1	5	20	30	24	12	2				789	*
82		21	34		-	5	7.6		No					0		4	0	3	12	29	29	16	5	0	0		543	*
81		21	35		-	4	4.8		No							3		2	7	20	31	27	8	3			314	*
80		20	35		-	5	2.0		No							1		2	4	15	29	35	9	5	1		197	*
79		19	35		-	6	0.9		No									1	2	7	25	26	25	11	3		106	*
78		19	36		-	5	Out		No											7	15	25	32	18	1	1	72	*
77		19	37		-	4	Out		No												10	20	33	25	10	3	40	*
76		17	36		-	7	Out		No													10	43	19	29		21	*
75		18	38		-	4	Out		No												10	10	30	20	20	10	10	*
74		17	38		-	5	Out		No													11	11	67	11		9	*
73		16	38		-	6	Out		No														50	50			2
35		0	60		-	0	Out		No																	100	200

Total:							99.5	%	19.7	%	30	34	15	14	2	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2,502,400

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Chicago Blackhawks vs Tampa Bay Lightning	+0.7-0.0-0.0-0.8-0.8-0.8
Pittsburgh Penguins vs Boston Bruins	-0.1-0.0+0.0+0.1+0.2+0.1
Montreal Canadiens vs Buffalo Sabres	-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Florida Panthers vs Carolina Hurricanes	+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.0+0.0-0.1
Toronto Maple Leafs vs Columbus Blue Jackets	+0.0+0.0+0.0-0.1-0.0-0.1
Ottawa Senators vs Dallas Stars	+0.0+0.1+0.0-0.0+0.0-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31

131	-155						100
130		46	11		-	3	99	0	0
129		45	11		-	4	100	0	0
128		45	12		-	3	100	0	0		0
127		44	12		-	4	100	0	0
126		44	13		-	3	99	0	1
125		43	13		-	4	99	0	1		0
124		42	13		-	5	98	0	1		0
123		42	14		-	4	97	1	2		0
122		41	14		-	5	96	1	3		0
121		41	15		-	4	94	2	4		0
120		40	15		-	5	91	3	5		0
119		40	16		-	4	88	4	7		1
118		39	16		-	5	84	5	10		1	0
117		39	17		-	4	79	7	13	0	1		0
116		38	17		-	5	73	10	16	0	2	0
115		38	18		-	4	65	12	20	0	3	0	0
114		37	18		-	5	57	15	24	0	4	0	0
113		37	19		-	4	47	18	29	0	6	0	0		0
112		36	19		-	5	38	20	33	0	7	0	0		0
111		36	20		-	4	29	22	38	1	9	0	0		0
110		35	20		-	5	20	23	42	1	12	1	0		0
109		35	21		-	4	14	22	45	3	14	2	1		0
108		34	21		-	5	8	20	47	4	16	3	2		0
107		34	22		-	4	5	17	46	7	17	5	3	0	0	0	0		0
106		33	22		-	5	2	13	44	10	17	8	5	0	0	0	0
105		33	23		-	4	1	10	39	14	16	12	8	0	1	0	0		0
104		32	23		-	5	0	7	33	17	13	15	12	0	1	0	0		0
103		32	24		-	4	0	4	27	21	10	18	18	1	1	0	0		0
102		31	24		-	5	0	2	20	23	7	20	24	2	2	1	0		0	0
101		31	25		-	4	0	1	14	23	4	20	29	4	3	1	1		0	0
100		30	25		-	5		1	9	23	2	19	33	7	3	3	1	0	0	0	0
99		30	26		-	4		0	5	21	1	15	34	13	3	4	2	0	0	0	0
98		29	26		-	5		0	3	17	0	12	32	20	3	6	4	0	1	0	0
97		29	27		-	4		0	1	14	0	8	28	28	2	9	7	1	1	0	0	0	0
96		28	27		-	5		0	1	11	0	5	21	35	1	11	11	2	1	1	0	0	0
95		28	28		-	4		0	0	8		3	14	39	1	11	14	5	2	2	1	0	0
94		27	28		-	5			0	5		2	9	40	0	10	16	9	2	4	2	0	0	0
93		27	29		-	4			0	3		1	5	37	0	9	16	16	2	7	3	1	1	0
92		26	29		-	5			0	2		0	2	33	0	6	14	24	2	8	4	3	1	0	0
91		26	30		-	4				1		0	1	27		4	10	30	1	10	5	6	3	1	0	0
90		25	30		-	5				1		0	0	20		2	7	34	0	11	5	12	5	2	1	0	0
89		25	31		-	4				0		0	0	14		1	4	35	0	10	4	18	7	5	2	1	0	0
88		24	31		-	5				0				9		1	2	32		8	2	22	6	8	6	2	1	0
87		24	32		-	4								6		0	1	27		6	1	23	6	11	11	7	2	1	0	0
86		23	32		-	5								3		0	0	21		3	0	21	4	9	15	12	7	2	1	0	0
85		23	33		-	4								2			0	15		2	0	15	1	6	14	19	15	8	2	0
84		22	33		-	5								1				9		1	0	9	0	3	11	20	21	16	8	2	0	0
83		22	34		-	4								1				6		1		5	0	1	5	12	22	26	13	6	2	0
82		21	34		-	5								0				4		0		3		1	2	6	16	23	24	13	6	1
81		21	35		-	4												3				2			2	3	9	21	24	20	11	5	1
80		20	35		-	5												1				2				1	3	12	20	24	25	9	3	1	1
79		19	35		-	6																1					2	4	16	20	23	20	11	4
78		19	36		-	5																					1	1	13	14	22	22	17	6	4
77		18	36		-	6																							5	8	18	23	23	18	5	3
76		17	36		-	7																									5	33	5	29	19	10
75		18	38		-	4																									10	10	30	10	30	10
74		17	38		-	5																											33	33	33
73		16	38		-	6																											50	50
35		0	60		-	0																															100

Total:							20	10	26	9	8	7	9	5	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0