Toronto Maple Leafs Playoff Chances 2018-2019

Beat Carolina Hurricanes 3-2, playoff odds up 8.1 to 53.4%

22 points 11 11-0

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Toronto Maple Leafs vs Columbus Blue Jackets	+4.2+4.1+4.0-1.1-1.6-5.4		+0.2+0.1+0.1-0.1-0.1-0.2		+0.4+0.4+0.4-0.1-0.1-0.5
Montreal Canadiens vs Buffalo Sabres	+0.5+0.1+0.2-0.6*-0.2-0.3
Chicago Blackhawks vs Tampa Bay Lightning	+0.4-0.0+0.1-0.3-0.2-0.4

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Toronto Maple Leafs finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

119	-142						In		99.5	%	100																208	*
118		46	10		-	4	In		90.9		91	9															11	*
117		45	10		-	5	In		81.3		88	6	6														16	*
116		45	11		-	4	In		71.4		77	14	9														35	*
115		45	12		-	3	In		70.5		79	13	8														61	*
114		44	12		-	4	In		60.6		75	17	7		1												99	*
113		43	12		-	5	In		50.5		63	21	15		1												186	*
112		43	13		-	4	In		35.8		53	28	19		1												330	*
111		42	13		-	5	In		31.8		49	28	21	1	1												506	*
110		42	14		-	4	In		18.0		34	33	31	1	2												873	*
109		41	14		-	5	In		12.5		30	32	34	1	3												1,292	*
108		41	15		-	4	In		7.2		22	33	38	2	4												2,077	*
107		40	15		-	5	In		3.6		16	33	40	4	8	0											2,989	*
106		40	16		-	4	In		1.4		10	31	42	7	10	0											4,419	*
105		39	16		-	5	In		0.8		7	27	41	10	15	0	0										6,363	*
104		39	17		-	4	In		0.2		4	23	39	14	19	0	0										9,186	*
103		38	17		-	5	In		0.1		2	19	35	19	24	1	0										12,345	*
102		38	18		-	4	In		0.0		1	15	29	24	29	2	1										16,929	*
101		37	18		-	5	In		No		0	11	23	26	34	4	1	0									22,240	*
100		36	18		-	6	In		No		0	8	17	28	38	7	2	0									28,456	*
99		36	19		-	5	In		No		0	5	12	29	40	11	3	0									36,067	*
98		35	19		-	6	100.0	%	No		0	4	7	27	40	17	5	0	0								45,500	*
97		35	20		-	5	100.0		No		0	2	4	25	37	23	8	1	0								54,794	*
96		34	20		-	6	99.9		No			1	2	20	33	31	11	1	0	0							65,690	*
95		34	21		-	5	99.8		No			1	1	16	27	38	14	3	0	0							76,552	*
94		33	21		-	6	99.5		No			0	0	12	21	43	17	5	0	0							88,044	*
93		33	22		-	5	98.8		No			0	0	9	14	46	20	9	1	0							99,708	*
92		32	22		-	6	97.2		No			0	0	6	9	47	21	14	3	0	0						109,929	*
91		32	23		-	5	94.2		No			0	0	4	6	44	21	20	5	1	0						119,516	*
90		31	23		-	6	89.0		No			0	0	2	3	39	19	25	9	1	0	0					127,425	*
89		31	24		-	5	81.4		No			0		1	1	33	16	29	15	3	0	0					132,424	*
88		30	24		-	6	70.5		No			0		1	1	27	12	30	22	6	1	0	0				135,666	*
87		30	25		-	5	57.9		No					0	0	20	8	29	28	11	2	0	0				136,301	*
86		29	25		-	6	43.9		No					0	0	14	5	24	32	18	5	1	0				134,796	*
85		29	26		-	5	30.7		No					0	0	10	3	18	33	25	9	2	0	0	0		130,560	*
84		28	26		-	6	19.4		No					0	0	6	1	12	30	31	15	4	1	0	0		123,934	*
83		28	27		-	5	11.5		No					0		4	1	7	24	33	22	8	1	0	0		116,250	*
82		27	27		-	6	5.9		No					0		2	0	4	17	31	29	14	3	0	0		106,477	*
81		27	28		-	5	2.8		No					0		1	0	2	10	26	32	21	7	1	0	0	96,475	*
80		26	28		-	6	1.3		No					0		1	0	1	6	19	31	27	13	3	0	0	85,121	*
79		26	29		-	5	0.5		No							0	0	0	3	12	27	31	19	6	1	0	73,128	*
78		25	29		-	6	0.2		No							0		0	1	7	20	32	26	11	2	0	62,920	*
77		25	30		-	5	0.1		No							0		0	0	3	14	28	31	18	5	1	52,299	*
76		24	30		-	6	0.0		No							0			0	2	8	22	32	25	9	1	43,363	*
75		24	31		-	5	0.0		No							0			0	1	4	15	31	31	15	3	34,700	*
74		23	31		-	6	Out		No										0	0	2	10	26	35	22	5	27,404	*
73		23	32		-	5	Out		No											0	1	6	20	35	29	9	21,215	*
72		22	32		-	6	Out		No											0	0	3	14	33	36	15	16,299	*
71		22	33		-	5	Out		No											0	0	1	8	28	40	21	12,170	*
70		21	33		-	6	Out		No												0	1	5	21	43	29	8,736	*
69		21	34		-	5	Out		No													0	3	17	41	39	6,423	*
68		20	34		-	6	Out		No													0	1	11	39	48	4,589	*
67		20	35		-	5	Out		No														1	6	35	58	3,129	*
66		20	36		-	4	Out		No													0	0	5	30	65	2,098	*
65		19	36		-	5	Out		No															2	23	74	1,492	*
64		19	37		-	4	Out		No														0	1	17	82	899	*
63		18	37		-	5	Out		No															1	12	87	600	*
62		17	37		-	6	Out		No															0	9	91	324	*
61		17	38		-	5	Out		No																6	94	213	*
60		17	39		-	4	Out		No																5	95	154	*
59		16	39		-	5	Out		No																6	94	86	*
58		16	40		-	4	Out		No																2	98	52	*
57		15	40		-	5	Out		No																	100	22	*
56		15	41		-	4	Out		No																6	94	18	*
22	-55						Out		No																	100	217	*

Total:							53.4	%	0.1	%	0	1	2	5	7	19	8	12	12	10	8	6	4	3	2	1	2,502,400

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Toronto Maple Leafs vs Columbus Blue Jackets	-0.8-0.8-0.8+0.2+0.2+1.0
Montreal Canadiens vs Buffalo Sabres	-0.1*+0.0-0.0+0.1+0.0+0.0
Chicago Blackhawks vs Tampa Bay Lightning	-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.1+0.0+0.1
Florida Panthers vs Carolina Hurricanes	+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0-0.1
Pittsburgh Penguins vs Boston Bruins	-0.1+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0
Nashville Predators vs St. Louis Blues	-0.0+0.0-0.0-0.0+0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31

122	-142						100
120		48	10		-	2	50	50
119		47	10		-	3	100
118		46	10		-	4	91		9
117		46	11		-	3	81	6	6		6
116		45	11		-	4	71	6	14		9
115		45	12		-	3	70	8	13		8
114		44	12		-	4	61	14	17		7				1
113		43	12		-	5	51	12	21		15				1
112		43	13		-	4	36	17	27	0	19	0			1
111		42	13		-	5	32	17	28	1	21	0	1		1
110		42	14		-	4	18	16	32	1	29	2	1		2
109		41	14		-	5	13	17	30	1	31	3	1		3
108		41	15		-	4	7	15	30	2	33	6	2		4	0
107		40	15		-	5	4	12	28	4	31	8	4		7	0	0
106		40	16		-	4	1	9	26	5	30	12	7	0	9	0	0
105		39	16		-	5	1	6	20	7	26	15	10	0	14	1	0		0
104		39	17		-	4	0	4	15	7	20	19	14	0	17	2	0		0
103		38	17		-	5	0	2	11	8	14	21	19	1	20	4	1		0
102		38	18		-	4	0	1	7	7	8	21	22	1	23	6	2	0	1	0
101		37	18		-	5		0	4	7	4	19	24	2	23	11	4	0	1	0	0
100		36	18		-	6		0	2	5	2	15	24	5	22	16	7	0	2	0	0
99		36	19		-	5		0	1	4	1	11	22	7	18	22	11	0	3	0	0
98		35	19		-	6		0	1	3	0	7	17	10	13	26	17	1	4	1	0	0	0
97		35	20		-	5		0	0	2	0	4	13	12	9	29	22	2	6	2	1	0	0
96		34	20		-	6			0	1	0	2	8	12	5	28	27	4	7	4	1	0	0	0
95		34	21		-	5			0	1		1	5	12	2	25	30	8	7	7	3	0	0	0
94		33	21		-	6			0	0		0	3	10	1	20	29	14	7	10	4	1	0	0
93		33	22		-	5			0	0		0	1	8	0	14	25	21	6	14	7	2	1	0	0
92		32	22		-	6				0		0	0	6	0	9	19	27	4	17	9	5	2	0	0	0
91		32	23		-	5			0	0		0	0	4	0	5	13	31	2	19	10	10	5	1	0	0	0
90		31	23		-	6				0		0	0	2		3	8	32	1	18	8	17	7	3	1	0	0	0
89		31	24		-	5				0			0	1	0	1	4	29	0	16	6	23	9	6	3	1	0	0	0
88		30	24		-	6				0			0	1		1	2	25	0	12	3	27	10	10	7	2	1	0	0
87		30	25		-	5							0	0		0	1	19	0	8	1	28	8	13	12	7	2	0	0	0
86		29	25		-	6								0		0	0	14	0	5	0	24	5	12	17	13	7	2	0	0	0
85		29	26		-	5								0		0	0	10		3	0	18	2	9	17	19	14	6	2	0	0	0
84		28	26		-	6								0		0	0	6		1	0	12	1	5	13	21	21	13	5	1	0	0	0
83		28	27		-	5								0			0	4		1	0	7	0	2	7	17	24	21	12	5	1	0	0	0
82		27	27		-	6								0			0	2		0		4	0	0	3	10	20	25	20	11	4	1	0	0
81		27	28		-	5								0				1		0		2	0	0	1	5	13	22	25	19	10	3	1	0	0
80		26	28		-	6								0				1		0		1	0	0	0	2	6	15	23	25	17	8	2	0	0	0
79		26	29		-	5												0		0		0		0	0	0	2	8	17	25	24	15	6	2	0	0
78		25	29		-	6												0				0				0	1	3	10	19	26	23	13	5	1	0	0
77		25	30		-	5												0				0				0	0	1	4	12	22	27	21	10	3	0	0
76		24	30		-	6												0									0	0	2	6	15	25	26	18	7	1	0
75		24	31		-	5												0									0	0	0	2	8	19	28	25	13	4	0
74		23	31		-	6																						0	0	1	4	12	24	29	21	8	1
73		23	32		-	5																							0	0	1	6	18	29	28	14	3
72		22	32		-	6																							0	0	0	3	11	25	33	22	6
71		22	33		-	5																								0	0	1	6	19	33	30	11
70		21	33		-	6																								0	0	0	3	13	30	37	17
69		21	34		-	5																										0	1	8	24	41	26
68		20	34		-	6																											1	4	18	41	36
67		20	35		-	5																											0	2	12	40	46
66		20	36		-	4																											0	1	9	36	54
65		19	36		-	5																											0	0	5	30	65
64		19	37		-	4																												0	3	22	75
63		18	37		-	5																													3	15	83
62		17	37		-	6																													1	15	85
61		17	38		-	5																														10	90
60		17	39		-	4																														5	95
59		16	39		-	5																													1	6	93
58		16	40		-	4																														4	96
57		15	40		-	5																															100
56		15	41		-	4																														6	94
22	-55																																				100

Total:							0	0	0	1	0	1	2	3	2	5	7	12	1	6	2	9	3	3	4	5	5	5	4	4	3	3	2	2	1	1	1