Carolina Hurricanes Playoff Chances 2018-2019

Lost to Toronto Maple Leafs 2-3, playoff odds down 1.1 to 5%

12 points 5 14-2

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Florida Panthers vs Carolina Hurricanes	-4.1-0.5-0.6+4.5+4.7+4.8		-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1		-0.4-0.0-0.0+0.4+0.5+0.5
Pittsburgh Penguins vs Boston Bruins	-0.3-0.5-0.4-0.2-0.2+0.4
Chicago Blackhawks vs Tampa Bay Lightning	+0.2-0.1-0.0-0.4-0.1-0.3
Montreal Canadiens vs Buffalo Sabres	+0.2-0.1-0.0-0.3-0.1-0.2

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Carolina Hurricanes finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

134		61	0		-	0	In		Yes		100																200
108		46	11		-	4	In		33.3	%	67	33															3	*
107		45	11		-	5	In		No						100												1
106		44	11		-	6	In		No		20	20	20	10	20		10										10	*
105		44	12		-	5	In		4.2		13	25	38	8	13		4										24	*
104		43	12		-	6	In		No		9	20	46	9	14		3										35	*
103		43	13		-	5	In		No			8	49	17	26												65	*
102		43	14		-	4	In		No		2	5	32	22	27		12										113	*
101		42	14		-	5	In		No			10	22	19	40		8	1									192	*
100		41	14		-	6	In		No			5	21	17	43	2	10	2									303	*
99		41	15		-	5	In		No			2	12	16	45	3	20	2									484	*
98		41	16		-	4	In		No			1	8	15	43	3	26	3									841	*
97		40	16		-	5	99.9	%	No			0	5	15	40	5	29	6	0								1,274	*
96		39	16		-	6	99.6		No			0	2	11	34	8	36	8	0								1,918	*
95		39	17		-	5	99.2		No				1	7	26	10	43	12	1	0							2,982	*
94		38	17		-	6	98.6		No			0	0	5	20	12	43	19	1	0							4,175	*
93		38	18		-	5	97.0		No			0	0	4	14	11	43	25	3	0							6,005	*
92		37	18		-	6	94.0		No				0	2	8	10	40	33	6	0	0						8,439	*
91		37	19		-	5	88.5		No			0	0	1	4	9	35	39	10	1	0						11,708	*
90		36	19		-	6	79.5		No				0	1	2	7	28	42	17	3	0						15,564	*
89		36	20		-	5	69.1		No					0	1	5	21	42	24	6	1	0	0				20,590	*
88		35	20		-	6	55.9		No					0	0	3	14	39	31	11	2	0					26,636	*
87		35	21		-	5	42.1		No					0	0	2	8	32	35	18	5	1	0				33,897	*
86		34	21		-	6	28.7		No					0	0	1	4	23	35	25	9	2	0	0			41,956	*
85		34	22		-	5	17.2		No					0	0	0	2	15	32	31	16	4	1	0	0		51,431	*
84		33	22		-	6	9.5		No					0	0	0	1	9	25	33	23	8	1	0	0		61,548	*
83		33	23		-	5	4.5		No							0	0	4	17	31	29	14	4	0	0	0	72,641	*
82		32	23		-	6	2.0		No							0	0	2	11	26	32	21	7	1	0	0	83,485	*
81		32	24		-	5	0.7		No							0	0	1	6	18	32	27	13	3	0	0	94,423	*
80		31	24		-	6	0.2		No							0	0	0	2	12	26	32	20	6	1	0	104,960	*
79		31	25		-	5	0.1		No								0	0	1	6	20	32	27	11	2	0	113,905	*
78		30	25		-	6	0.0		No									0	0	3	13	28	31	18	5	1	122,910	*
77		30	26		-	5	0.0		No									0	0	1	8	22	33	25	9	1	129,359	*
76		29	26		-	6	Out		No										0	0	4	16	31	31	15	3	133,996	*
75		29	27		-	5	Out		No										0	0	2	10	26	35	22	5	135,021	*
74		28	27		-	6	Out		No											0	1	6	20	35	29	9	134,761	*
73		28	28		-	5	Out		No											0	0	3	14	33	36	14	131,716	*
72		27	28		-	6	Out		No											0	0	1	9	28	41	21	126,569	*
71		27	29		-	5	Out		No												0	1	5	22	43	29	118,646	*
70		26	29		-	6	Out		No												0	0	3	16	42	39	110,449	*
69		26	30		-	5	Out		No												0	0	1	11	39	48	100,715	*
68		25	30		-	6	Out		No												0	0	1	7	35	57	89,482	*
67		25	31		-	5	Out		No													0	0	5	30	65	78,200	*
66		24	31		-	6	Out		No													0	0	3	24	73	67,352	*
65		24	32		-	5	Out		No													0	0	2	19	80	56,818	*
64		23	32		-	6	Out		No														0	1	15	85	47,004	*
63		23	33		-	5	Out		No															0	11	89	38,357	*
62		22	33		-	6	Out		No															0	8	92	30,522	*
61		22	34		-	5	Out		No															0	5	95	24,077	*
60		21	34		-	6	Out		No															0	4	96	18,580	*
59		21	35		-	5	Out		No															0	2	98	14,029	*
58		20	35		-	6	Out		No															0	2	98	10,219	*
57		20	36		-	5	Out		No																1	99	7,390	*
56		19	36		-	6	Out		No																1	99	5,228	*
55		19	37		-	5	Out		No																0	100	3,781	*
54		18	37		-	6	Out		No																0	100	2,636	*
53		18	38		-	5	Out		No																0	100	1,726	*
52		17	38		-	6	Out		No																0	100	1,067	*
50	-51						Out		No																	100	1,146	*
49		16	40		-	5	Out		No																0	100	279	*
12	-48						Out		No																	100	557	*

Total:							5.0	%	0.0	%	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	3	4	6	8	10	12	14	18	23	2,502,400

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Florida Panthers vs Carolina Hurricanes	+0.8+0.1+0.1-0.9-0.9-1.0
Pittsburgh Penguins vs Boston Bruins	+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.0*+0.0-0.1
Detroit Red Wings vs Washington Capitals	-0.0+0.1+0.0+0.0*+0.0+0.0
Ottawa Senators vs Dallas Stars	+0.0+0.0+0.0*+0.0+0.1-0.0
New York Islanders vs New Jersey Devils	-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.0
Vancouver Canucks vs San Jose Sharks	-0.0+0.1-0.0+0.0*+0.0+0.0
Edmonton Oilers vs Anaheim Ducks	+0.0+0.1+0.0+0.0*-0.0-0.0
New York Rangers vs Philadelphia Flyers	-0.0+0.0+0.1+0.0+0.0+0.0
Toronto Maple Leafs vs Columbus Blue Jackets	-0.0+0.1+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0
Chicago Blackhawks vs Tampa Bay Lightning	-0.0+0.1-0.0+0.0*+0.0+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31

134		61	0		-	0	100
108		46	11		-	4	33	33	33
107		45	11		-	5									100
106		44	11		-	6		20	20		20		10		20				10
105		44	12		-	5	4	8	21	4	25	13	8		13				4
104		43	12		-	6		9	14	6	17	29	9		9	6			3
103		43	13		-	5			8		14	35	17		18	8
102		43	14		-	4		2	3	3	9	23	21	1	21	6			12
101		42	14		-	5			5	5	3	19	18	1	24	16			8	1	1
100		41	14		-	6			2	3	3	19	14	4	24	19	2		10		2
99		41	15		-	5			1	1	1	11	13	3	21	25	3		17	2	2
98		41	16		-	4			0	1	0	8	9	6	14	29	3		21	5	3
97		40	16		-	5			0	0	0	5	8	6	9	31	5	0	21	9	6		0
96		39	16		-	6			0	0		2	4	7	5	29	7	1	22	14	7	0	0
95		39	17		-	5						1	2	5	2	24	8	2	21	23	11	1	1	0
94		38	17		-	6				0		0	1	4	1	19	8	4	17	27	16	3	1	0
93		38	18		-	5				0		0	0	3	0	13	6	5	12	31	19	6	3	0
92		37	18		-	6						0	0	2	0	8	4	6	7	34	20	14	5	1	0
91		37	19		-	5				0		0	0	1		4	3	6	3	32	18	21	9	2	0	0	0
90		36	19		-	6						0		1		2	1	6	1	27	13	28	13	5	2	0	0	0
89		36	20		-	5								0		1	0	4	0	20	8	35	14	10	5	1	0	0
88		35	20		-	6								0		0	0	3	0	14	4	35	13	15	10	4	1	0	0
87		35	21		-	5								0		0	0	2	0	8	1	31	9	17	17	11	4	1	0	0
86		34	21		-	6								0		0	0	1		4	0	23	5	14	20	18	10	4	1	0	0
85		34	22		-	5								0		0	0	0		2	0	15	2	8	18	23	18	10	3	1	0	0
84		33	22		-	6								0		0		0		1	0	9	1	4	12	21	24	17	8	3	1	0	0
83		33	23		-	5												0		0		4	0	1	6	15	23	24	16	8	2	0	0	0
82		32	23		-	6												0		0		2	0	0	2	7	17	24	24	15	7	2	0	0	0
81		32	24		-	5												0		0		1	0	0	1	3	9	18	25	23	14	5	1	0	0	0
80		31	24		-	6												0		0		0		0	0	1	4	11	20	25	22	12	4	1	0	0
79		31	25		-	5														0		0		0	0	0	1	5	13	22	26	20	10	3	1	0	0
78		30	25		-	6																0			0	0	0	2	6	15	24	26	18	8	2	0	0
77		30	26		-	5																0				0	0	0	2	8	18	26	25	14	5	1	0
76		29	26		-	6																					0	0	1	3	11	22	28	22	11	3	0
75		29	27		-	5																					0	0	0	1	5	15	26	28	18	6	1
74		28	27		-	6																						0	0	0	2	8	20	30	26	12	2
73		28	28		-	5																							0	0	1	4	14	27	31	19	5
72		27	28		-	6																							0	0	0	2	8	21	33	27	9
71		27	29		-	5																								0	0	1	4	15	32	34	15
70		26	29		-	6																									0	0	2	9	27	39	23
69		26	30		-	5																									0	0	1	5	21	41	32
68		25	30		-	6																									0	0	0	3	15	40	42
67		25	31		-	5																										0	0	1	10	37	52
66		24	31		-	6																											0	1	6	32	62
65		24	32		-	5																											0	0	4	26	70
64		23	32		-	6																											0	0	2	21	77
63		23	33		-	5																												0	1	16	83
62		22	33		-	6																												0	1	11	88
61		22	34		-	5																												0	0	8	92
60		21	34		-	6																													0	6	94
59		21	35		-	5																													0	4	96
58		20	35		-	6																													0	3	97
57		20	36		-	5																														2	98
56		19	36		-	6																													0	1	99
55		19	37		-	5																														1	99
54		18	37		-	6																														0	100
53		18	38		-	5																														0	100
52		17	38		-	6																														0	100
51		17	39		-	5																														0	100
50		16	39		-	6																															100
49		16	40		-	5																														0	100
48		16	41		-	4																														1	99
12	-47																																				100

Total:							0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	1	1	2	2	3	4	4	5	6	7	8	10	11	14	17