DC United Playoff Chances

Did not play, playoff odds up 1.2 to 77.2%
6 points   2-0-1

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 3/28100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
DC United 1 Galaxy 0 +6.7
+0.8
+1.1
-1.7
+0.4
Revolution 2 Earthquakes 1 -0.8
-0.1
+0.1
-0.0
NYCFC 0 Sporting KC 1 +0.8
+0.1
+0.1
+0.3
+0.1
Impact 2 Orlando 2 +0.5
+0.1
Real Salt Lake 2 Toronto FC 1 +0.4
+0.1
+0.0
Crew 1 Red Bulls 2 +0.1
-0.1
Fire 1 Union 0 +0.1
FC Dallas 0 Sounders 0 +0.2
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 4/3100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
Orlando vs DC United-4.0+0.7+8.5
-0.7+0.1+1.4
-1.4-0.2+3.6
+0.5-0.1-1.0
-0.3+0.0+0.7
Rapids vs Revolution+0.4-0.0-1.2
+0.0*-0.0-0.1
-0.1+0.1+0.2
-0.0*+0.0+0.1
+0.0-0.0-0.1
Sporting KC vs Union+0.4*-0.0-1.1
+0.0*+0.0-0.1
+0.0+0.0-0.1
Whitecaps vs Crew+0.4-0.0-1.0
+0.1*-0.0-0.2
-0.1+0.2+0.1
+0.0-0.0-0.1
Red Bulls vs Impact+0.2+0.1-0.7
-0.2+0.2+0.3
-0.0*+0.0+0.1
Fire vs Toronto FC-0.2+0.4-0.1
+0.0+0.1-0.1
+0.0+0.0-0.1
+0.1-0.0-0.1
Timbers vs FC Dallas+0.3+0.1-0.6
+0.1-0.0-0.1
Whitecaps vs Galaxy-0.1+0.2+0.1
Earthquakes vs Real Salt Lake-0.0+0.1-0.1
Sounders vs Dynamo-0.0+0.1*+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well DC United finishes out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inSupportersChance will finish regular season at seedWooden
TPW-D-LplayoffsShield12345678910SpoonCount
76-99In100.0%100No37,029*
7521-6-4In99.81000No6,463*
7421-5-5In99.71000No11,563*
7320-7-4In99.61000No19,777*
7220-6-5In99.31000No33,636*
7120-5-6In98.91000No55,252*
7019-7-5In98.41000No88,245*
6919-6-6In97.69910No138,621*
6819-5-7In96.39910No214,088*
6718-7-6In94.59910No321,722*
6618-6-7In92.09820No473,776*
6517-8-6In88.59730No683,252*
6417-7-7In83.79550No964,437*
6317-6-8In77.793700No1,331,567*
6216-8-7In70.1901000No1,801,971*
6116-7-8In61.1861300No2,381,760*
6016-6-9In50.78118100No3,094,771*
5915-8-8In39.67523100No3,926,741*
5815-7-9In28.76829300No4,885,148*
5714-9-8In18.85935500No5,952,001*
5614-8-9In10.850419100No7,111,472*
5514-7-10In5.3404514100No8,316,646*
5413-9-9100.0%2.13047203000No9,517,184*
5313-8-10100.00.62145286100No10,679,487*
5213-7-11100.00.1134035111000No11,737,188*
5112-9-10100.00.073139194000No12,637,795*
5012-8-11100.00.042239278100No13,310,871*
4912-7-1299.80.01133434153000No13,733,092*
4811-9-1199.2No072537247100No13,878,391*
4711-8-1297.4No03153432132000No13,732,939*
4610-10-1192.9No0182636236100No13,296,537*
4510-9-1284.0No00316333113200No12,599,576*
4410-8-1370.0No0018253623610No11,673,717*
439-10-1252.4No000316333213200.0%10,585,805*
429-9-1334.5No00018253623600.09,381,424*
419-8-1419.7No00031635321210.08,128,795*
408-10-139.7No001928382140.26,883,377*
398-9-144.2No000419383180.95,699,745*
388-8-151.5No001113439143.04,603,691*
377-10-140.5No00062645237.63,633,094*
367-9-150.1No00318453415.42,796,029*
357-8-160.0No00111424526.02,097,635*
346-10-150.0No007365738.51,537,183*
336-9-160.0No003296751.41,095,786*
326-8-170.0No002227663.5760,046*
315-10-16OutNo01168373.6512,057*
305-9-17OutNo00118881.9336,479*
295-8-18OutNo0079288.0213,251*
284-10-17OutNo0059592.2132,105*
274-9-18OutNo039795.278,699*
264-8-19OutNo029897.245,609*
253-10-18OutNo19998.425,643*
243-9-19OutNo19999.113,705*
233-8-20OutNo010099.57,241*
223-7-21OutNo010099.73,381*
212-9-20OutNo010099.71,739*
6-20OutNo100Yes30,846*
Total:77.2%5.7%15151412111087531.8%237,250,080

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well DC United finishes out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPW-D-LWin CupByeRed BullsNYCFCToronto FCOrlandoCrewImpactRevolutionUnionFire
64-9912.5%Yes
6317-6-812.51000000
6216-8-712.510000000
6116-7-812.5100000000000
6016-6-912.5100000000000
5915-8-812.5100000000000
5815-7-912.5100000000000
5714-9-812.5100000000000
15-6-1012.5100000000000
5614-8-912.599000000000
15-5-1112.599000000000
5514-7-1012.599000000000
13-10-812.499000000000
5413-9-912.497000000000
14-6-1112.497000000000
5313-8-1012.293111111100
12-11-812.393111111101
14-5-1212.294111111100
5213-7-1112.088122221111
12-10-911.987122222111
5112-9-1011.577233333222
13-6-1211.578233333222
11-12-811.577233333222
5012-8-1110.765355554333
11-11-910.663355554333
13-5-1310.765355554333
4912-7-129.749576766444
11-10-109.547577766444
10-13-89.548577776444
4811-9-118.232688887555
12-6-138.333688887555
10-12-98.131688887655
4711-8-126.619699998665
10-11-106.417699998665
12-5-146.619699998665
4610-10-114.79588887655
11-7-134.89588887655
4510-9-123.13466766544
11-6-143.13466766544
4410-8-131.81344444333
439-10-120.90122322222
429-9-130.40111111111
419-8-140.20000000000
408-10-130.00000000000
398-9-140.00000000000
388-8-150.0000000000
377-10-140.0000000000
367-9-150.0000000000
357-8-16No00000
6-34No
Total:7.0%44.22.13.23.23.23.12.72.22.01.9
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 3/28100.0*Lottery seed
DC United 1 Galaxy 0 -1.0
NYCFC 0 Sporting KC 1 -0.1
Revolution 2 Earthquakes 1 +0.1
Impact 2 Orlando 2 -0.1
Real Salt Lake 2 Toronto FC 1 -0.0
Crew 1 Red Bulls 2 +0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 4/3100.0*Lottery seed
Orlando vs DC United+0.7-0.1-1.5
Whitecaps vs Crew-0.0-0.0+0.1
Rapids vs Revolution-0.0-0.0+0.1
Sporting KC vs Union-0.0-0.0+0.1
Fire vs Toronto FC-0.0-0.0+0.1
Red Bulls vs Impact+0.0-0.1+0.0

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPW-D-L1234567891011121314151617181920
77-99100
7622-4-51000
7521-6-410000
7421-5-510000
7320-7-410000
7220-6-59910
7120-5-69910
7019-7-59810
6919-6-698210
6819-5-796310
6718-7-694410
6618-6-7926200
6517-8-6888300
6417-7-78411500
6317-6-878157000
6216-8-7702010000
6116-7-8612513000
6016-6-951311711000
5915-8-840362221000
5815-7-929392633000
5714-9-8194129750000
5614-8-911392912801000
5514-7-1053426191311000
5413-9-92282027173300000
5313-8-101201332208601000
5213-7-110136341915101100000
5112-9-10072291425154400000
5012-8-11040218311710711000
4912-7-1201013331142012330000
4811-9-11007124829159611000
4711-8-12003015331121911320000
4610-10-11010812572913961000
4510-9-12000301623111201041000
4410-8-1300108025630131151000
439-10-120000301623111171351000
429-9-13000010802561722155100
419-8-1400003016211232514410
408-10-13000109151729251120
398-9-140000402923322271
388-8-15001003143031163
377-10-1400000172235278
367-9-1500000313323715
357-8-16000017244226
346-10-1500003164239
336-9-160001103851
326-8-1700053164
315-10-160022474
305-9-17011782
295-8-18001288
284-10-1700892
274-9-180595
264-8-190397
253-10-180298
243-9-19199
233-8-20199
223-7-210100
212-9-200100
6-20100
Total:696105948383733343322