DC United Playoff Chances

Did not play, playoff odds up 0.001 to 0.07%

18 points 5-3-13

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 7/21	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Supporters Shield	100.0*	Wooden Spoon	100.0*	Average seed
DC United 1 Houston 3	-0.2		No		+8.0		-0.1
Minnesota 0 NY Red Bulls 3	-0.1				-5.1
Columbus 1 Philadelphia 0					-0.1
New England 4 Los Angeles 3					+0.4		-0.0
Toronto FC 1 Colorado 1					+0.5
Real Salt Lake 1 Sporting KC 1					*+0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Philadelphia vs Columbus					+0.2-0.1-0.3

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 7/29	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Supporters Shield	100.0*	Wooden Spoon	100.0*	Average seed
Minnesota vs DC United	-0.0-0.0+0.2		NoNo+0.0		+11.8-6.2-24.1		-0.1-0.0+0.2
Real Salt Lake vs Columbus					+0.5-0.1-0.6
Atlanta vs Orlando					-0.0+0.0+0.1
New England vs Philadelphia					+0.1-0.0-0.2
NY Red Bulls vs Montreal					-0.1+0.0+0.1
San Jose vs Colorado					-0.6+0.1+1.3
Los Angeles vs Seattle					+0.6-0.2-0.7

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the DC United finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Supporters		Chance will finish regular season at seed											Wooden
TP		W	-	D	-	L	playoffs		Shield		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	Spoon		Count

57		13	-	0	-	0	In		0.8	%	3	23	43	25	5	0						No		85,827
55		12	-	1	-	0	In		No				25	60	15							No		20
54		12	-	0	-	1	In		No				16	55	22	7						No		58
53		11	-	2	-	0	99.2	%	No			1	14	43	33	9	1					No		266
52		11	-	1	-	1	99.5		No			0	5	30	49	16	1					No		976
51		10	-	3	-	0	97.5		No			0	2	17	53	25	2	0				No		2,252	*
50		10	-	2	-	1	91.4		No				1	9	46	36	8	0				No		7,792
49		10	-	1	-	2	82.2		No				0	4	33	45	16	2	0			No		19,421	*
48		9	-	3	-	1	67.4		No				0	1	21	46	27	5	0	0		No		44,533	*
47		9	-	2	-	2	49.8		No				0	0	10	39	38	11	1	0		No		112,108	*
46		9	-	1	-	3	31.2		No					0	4	27	44	22	4	0	0	No		233,970	*
45		8	-	3	-	2	16.8		No					0	1	15	41	33	9	1	0	No		480,833	*
44		8	-	2	-	3	7.4		No					0	0	7	31	40	18	3	0	No		977,360	*
43		7	-	4	-	2	2.5		No						0	2	19	40	30	8	1	No		1,760,907	*
42		7	-	3	-	3	0.7		No						0	1	10	33	39	16	2	No		3,144,525	*
41		7	-	2	-	4	0.1		No						0	0	4	22	42	27	5	No		5,376,962	*
40		6	-	4	-	3	0.0		No						0	0	1	12	37	39	11	0.0	%	8,488,044	*
39		6	-	3	-	4	0.0		No							0	0	5	27	46	21	0.0		13,136,214	*
38		6	-	2	-	5	0.0		No							0	0	2	18	47	32	0.0		11,005,065
		5	-	5	-	3	0.0		No							0	0	2	16	47	36	0.0		8,306,625	*
37		5	-	4	-	4	0.0		No							0	0	1	9	42	48	0.3		18,130,801
		6	-	1	-	6	Out		No								0	1	9	42	48	0.2		8,523,309	*
36		5	-	3	-	5	Out		No								0	0	4	34	61	1.0		26,001,948
		4	-	6	-	3	Out		No								0	0	4	32	65	1.3		9,749,358	*
35		5	-	2	-	6	Out		No								0	0	2	25	73	3.0		23,199,864
		4	-	5	-	4	Out		No								0	0	1	23	76	3.7		22,254,678	*
34		4	-	4	-	5	Out		No									0	1	15	84	8.5		42,776,395	*
		5	-	1	-	7	Out		No								0	0	1	16	83	7.5		11,756,422
33		4	-	3	-	6	Out		No									0	0	10	90	15.8		44,091,513
		3	-	6	-	4	Out		No									0	0	8	92	17.6		19,096,284	*
32		3	-	5	-	5	Out		No									0	0	5	95	28.2		33,846,299
		4	-	2	-	7	Out		No									0	0	5	95	26.6		35,343,397	*
31		3	-	4	-	6	Out		No										0	3	97	40.3		49,178,632
		4	-	1	-	8	Out		No									0	0	3	97	39.3		14,445,242
		2	-	7	-	4	Out		No										0	2	98	43.0		7,793,176	*
30		3	-	3	-	7	Out		No										0	1	99	53.2		48,723,588
		2	-	6	-	5	Out		No										0	1	99	55.3		22,012,436	*
29		2	-	5	-	6	Out		No										0	0	100	66.9		32,232,887
		3	-	2	-	8	Out		No										0	1	99	65.8		33,596,770	*
28		2	-	4	-	7	Out		No										0	0	100	77.0		39,459,275
		3	-	1	-	9	Out		No										0	0	100	77.4		17,817,151	*
27		2	-	3	-	8	Out		No										0	0	100	85.3		33,624,796
		1	-	6	-	6	Out		No											0	100	86.3		13,789,902	*
26		2	-	2	-	9	Out		No											0	100	91.5		18,988,419
		1	-	5	-	7	Out		No											0	100	91.9		17,490,897	*
25		1	-	4	-	8	Out		No											0	100	95.6		17,612,734
		2	-	1	-	10	Out		No											0	100	95.7		8,116,953	*
24		1	-	3	-	9	Out		No											0	100	98.1		16,980,778	*
23		1	-	2	-	10	Out		No											0	100	99.3		10,178,371	*
18	-22						Out		No												100	99.9		9,150,355	*

Total:							0.1	%	0.0	%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	3	10	86	42.8	%	759,146,388

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 7/21	100.0*	Lottery seed
DC United 1 Houston 3	+0.4
Minnesota 0 NY Red Bulls 3	-0.1
Toronto FC 1 Colorado 1	+0.0

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 7/29	100.0*	Lottery seed
Minnesota vs DC United	+0.3-0.1-0.8

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W	-	D	-	L	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22

57		13	-	0	-	0	1	3	18	5	43	0	25	0	5		0
55		12	-	1	-	0					20	5	60		15
54		12	-	0	-	1					16		55		22		7
53		11	-	2	-	0				1	11	3	42	1	33		9		1
52		11	-	1	-	1				0	3	2	28	2	49	0	16		1
51		10	-	3	-	0				0	1	1	14	4	52	1	25	0	2	0
50		10	-	2	-	1					0	0	6	3	43	2	36	0	8	0
49		10	-	1	-	2					0	0	2	2	29	4	44	0	16	2	0
48		9	-	3	-	1						0	0	1	15	6	44	1	27	5	0	0
47		9	-	2	-	2						0	0	0	6	5	35	4	38	11	1	0
46		9	-	1	-	3							0	0	1	3	21	6	43	22	4	0	0
45		8	-	3	-	2							0	0	0	1	9	6	38	33	10	1	0	0
44		8	-	2	-	3								0	0	0	3	4	26	39	21	5	0	0	0
43		7	-	4	-	2									0	0	0	2	13	34	33	14	3	0	0	0
42		7	-	3	-	3										0	0	1	5	21	35	27	10	2	0	0	0
41		7	-	2	-	4										0	0	0	1	8	24	33	23	9	2	0	0
40		6	-	4	-	3										0	0	0	0	2	11	27	32	20	7	1	0	0
39		6	-	3	-	4												0	0	0	4	14	29	31	17	4	0	0
38		6	-	2	-	5												0	0	0	1	5	18	32	29	12	2	0
37		5	-	4	-	4												0		0	0	1	8	23	36	25	6	0
		6	-	1	-	6													0	0	0	1	8	24	36	25	6	0
36		5	-	3	-	5														0	0	0	3	13	32	36	14	1
		4	-	6	-	3														0	0	0	2	11	30	39	17	1
35		5	-	2	-	6														0	0	0	1	5	23	42	26	3
		4	-	5	-	4															0	0	0	4	20	42	30	4
34		4	-	4	-	5															0	0	0	1	11	37	42	8
		5	-	1	-	7																0	0	1	11	38	42	8
33		4	-	3	-	6															0	0	0	0	5	28	51	16
		3	-	6	-	4																0	0	0	4	26	53	18
32		3	-	5	-	5																0	0	0	1	16	55	28
		4	-	2	-	7																0	0	0	2	18	54	27
31		3	-	4	-	6																	0	0	0	9	51	40
		4	-	1	-	8																	0	0	0	9	50	41
30		3	-	3	-	7																	0	0	0	4	43	53
		2	-	6	-	5																		0	0	3	41	55
29		2	-	5	-	6																		0	0	1	32	67
		3	-	2	-	8																		0	0	2	33	66
28		2	-	4	-	7																		0	0	0	23	77
		3	-	1	-	9																			0	1	22	77
27		2	-	3	-	8																			0	0	15	85
		1	-	6	-	6																			0	0	14	86
26		2	-	2	-	9																			0	0	9	91
		1	-	5	-	7																			0	0	8	92
25		1	-	4	-	8																				0	4	96
24		1	-	3	-	9																				0	2	98
23		1	-	2	-	10																				0	1	99
22		0	-	4	-	9																					0	100
21		0	-	3	-	10																					0	100
20		0	-	2	-	11																					0	100
18	-19																											100

Total:							0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	2	3	6	13	30	43