DC United Playoff Chances

Tied Toronto FC 4-4, playoff odds up 3.4 to 25.2%
10 points   2-4-6

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 6/23100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
Seattle vs Chicago+1.0+0.3-1.8
+0.2-0.1-0.3
+0.1+0.0-0.1
Philadelphia vs Vancouver-1.0+0.7+1.3
+0.0-0.0-0.1
-0.1+0.0+0.1
NYCFC vs Toronto FC+0.5*+0.0-1.6
-0.0+0.0+0.1
+0.0-0.0-0.1
Orlando vs Montreal-0.8+1.0+1.0
-0.1+0.0+0.2
LAFC vs Columbus+0.4-0.0-0.7
+0.0*+0.0-0.1
NY Red Bulls vs FC Dallas-0.1+0.0+0.1
Minnesota vs FC Dallas+0.1-0.0-0.1
Colorado vs Minnesota+0.4-0.3-0.5
RSL vs San Jose-0.2-0.0+0.4

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well DC United finishes out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inSupportersChance will finish regular season at seedWooden
TPW-D-LplayoffsShield123456789101112SpoonCount
7622-0-0In99.8%1000No791,325
73-74InYes100No34*
7220-2-0In96.4991No83
7120-1-1In92.6964No310
7019-3-0In91.5973No765*
6919-2-1In86.39460No2,578
6819-1-2In77.689100No6,056*
6718-3-1In69.284150No14,749*
6618-2-2In58.7782110No35,729*
6517-4-1In45.6692920No76,410*
6417-3-2In33.7593650No164,241*
6317-2-3In22.14843900No336,748*
6216-4-2In12.936481410No648,367*
6116-3-3In6.726502220No1,234,922*
6016-2-4In2.9174731500No2,236,967*
5915-4-3In1.01041391000No3,897,612*
5815-3-4In0.3632441610No6,640,904*
5714-5-3100.0%0.13234625300No10,850,745*
5614-4-4100.00.01144335700No17,178,886*
5514-3-5100.00.00836431210No26,470,612*
5413-5-4100.00.004274720200No39,335,276*
5313-4-599.90.002174630500No56,834,883*
5213-3-699.7No0110413810000No79,766,418*
5112-5-599.1No005324417100No108,400,256*
5012-4-697.5No0022246272000No143,424,642*
4911-6-594.1No0011443376000No184,316,672*
4811-5-687.9No008354511100No229,911,159*
4711-4-778.3No0042549192000No279,172,090*
4610-6-665.3No0011648286000No329,394,555*
4510-5-750.1No009413712100No377,698,466*
4410-4-834.9No004314120400No421,549,709*
439-6-721.7No002204029810No457,161,217*
429-5-811.9No0011134361520No482,070,830*
419-4-95.7No006253924600.0%494,487,963*
408-6-82.3No0021636331210.0492,807,782*
398-5-90.8No001929392030.0477,440,313*
387-7-80.2No000420403060.0449,508,385*
377-6-90.1No002123540120.1410,977,241*
367-5-100.0No00062746200.4364,893,847*
356-7-90.0No0031948311.3314,567,235*
346-6-100.0No0011144433.6262,951,099*
336-5-110.0No000638568.1213,119,794*
325-7-100.0No0003306715.4167,406,938*
315-6-11OutNo001227725.4127,233,516*
305-5-12OutNo000158537.393,561,301*
294-7-11OutNo0099149.966,473,676*
284-6-12OutNo0069461.945,583,694*
274-5-13OutNo0039772.330,112,862*
263-7-12OutNo029880.819,156,843*
253-6-13OutNo019987.311,693,609*
243-5-14OutNo0010092.06,842,899*
233-4-15OutNo010095.13,831,073*
222-6-14OutNo010097.22,044,629*
212-5-15OutNo010098.51,031,959*
202-4-16OutNo010099.2496,024*
191-6-15OutNo010099.6223,450*
181-5-16OutNo010099.893,941*
10-17OutNo100100.0846,661*
Total:25.2%0.0%001371415161615133.4%7,317,010,950

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well DC United finishes out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPW-D-LWin CupByeAtlantaNYCFCNY Red BullsColumbusNew EnglandOrlandoChicagoPhiladelphiaToronto FCMontreal
67-7612.5%Yes
6618-2-212.210000
6517-4-112.510000000
6417-3-212.610000000000
6317-2-312.41000000000000
6216-4-212.4990000000000
6116-3-312.4980001100000
6016-2-412.2950012100000
5915-4-311.9900114300000
5815-3-411.4821227400000
5714-5-310.87113411710100
5614-4-49.958256151011110
5514-3-58.844278201421110
13-6-38.844278201321110
5413-5-47.7313810231621210
14-2-67.6303810241721210
5313-4-56.5193911261822210
12-7-36.41931011261832210
5213-3-65.31131011272032210
12-6-45.31131012271932220
5112-5-54.253911261832220
13-2-74.253910271932220
11-8-34.1531012261732220
5012-4-63.322810241732210
11-7-43.222810231632210
13-1-83.22289241732210
4911-6-52.31278201322210
12-3-72.41268201422210
10-9-32.21268191322210
4811-5-61.60156161021110
12-2-81.70155161121110
10-8-41.5015615921110
4711-4-71.0013411711110
10-7-51.0013411711110
12-1-91.0013411711110
4610-6-60.600227410000
11-3-80.600227411000
4510-5-70.300114200000
9-8-50.300114200000
4410-4-80.100012100000
9-7-60.100002100000
439-6-70.000001000000
429-5-80.000000000000
419-4-90.00000000000
408-6-80.00000000000
398-5-90.00000000000
388-4-100.00000000000
377-6-90.00000
367-5-10No00
10-35No
Total:0.6%1.20.31.21.43.72.50.40.30.30.20.0
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 6/23100.0*Lottery seed
NYCFC vs Toronto FC-0.0-0.0+0.1
Minnesota vs FC Dallas+0.1-0.0-0.1
Philadelphia vs Vancouver+0.1-0.1-0.1
Seattle vs Chicago-0.0-0.0+0.1
Orlando vs Montreal+0.0-0.1-0.0
LAFC vs Columbus-0.0-0.0+0.1

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPW-D-L1234567891011121314151617181920212223
7622-0-010000
73-74100
7220-2-09621
7120-1-19344
7019-3-09253
6919-2-1867600
6819-1-278121000
6718-3-169151500
6618-2-2591921010
6517-4-14623281200
6417-3-23425352500
6317-2-322264048000
6216-4-21324417140100
6116-3-37203812210200
6016-2-431431162915000
5915-4-3192120354100000
5815-3-4051220368160100
5714-5-30361732132413000
5614-4-401212241932370000
5514-3-500181421357120100
5413-5-4000472033141912000
5313-4-5000221525212735000
5213-3-60011101526318100000
5112-5-5000057252916161100
5012-4-60000222022252342000
4911-6-500011131330271050000
4811-5-60000753025201020000
4711-4-700004224183115510000
4610-6-600010161037181241000
4510-5-70000943717191130000
4410-4-800004129112320920000
439-6-700020206192818610000
429-5-8000101121226281541000
419-4-900006151830251230000
408-6-8000202923312292000
398-5-90001003132730186100
387-7-8000001517302814300
377-6-90000028223224910
367-5-1000000031328321850
356-7-9000016193429111
346-6-10000002102836204
336-5-110000151937318
325-7-100000211324015
315-6-11000005244525
305-5-120002164537
294-7-11000194050
284-6-1200053362
274-5-130022572
263-7-120011881
253-6-13001287
243-5-14000892
233-4-1500595
222-6-140397
212-5-150298
202-4-160199
191-6-150100
181-5-160100
171-4-170100
161-3-180100
150-5-170100
10-14100
Total:000001122541046899988753