DC United Playoff Chances

Did not play, playoff odds unchanged at 99.9%
40 points   12-4-7

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 8/16100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
DC United 4 Rapids 2 +0.3
+0.2
+3.7
No
+0.2
Crew 4 Galaxy 1 -0.1
+0.8
Impact 1 Fire 0 +0.1
New England 1 Timbers 1 *+0.0
Sporting KC 4 Toronto FC 1 -0.5
-0.0
Sounders 1 Earthquakes 1 +1.5
Rapids 3 Galaxy 4 -0.9
Real Salt Lake 2 Sounders 1 +0.7
Earthquakes 0 FC Dallas 5 -0.2
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
FC Dallas vs Real Salt Lake+0.4+0.5-1.4
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 8/23100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
Galaxy vs DC United-0.1+0.0+0.1
-0.0+0.0+0.1
-5.3-0.4+11.9
-0.1+0.0+0.2
Sporting KC vs DC United-0.1+0.0+0.1
-0.0+0.0+0.1
-5.6+0.0+13.0
-0.2+0.1+0.4
Toronto FC vs Fire-0.1+0.1+0.1
-0.0+0.0+0.1
Sporting KC vs Dynamo-1.0+1.3+2.0
-0.1+0.1+0.1
Timbers vs Sounders+1.5+0.5-2.5
Galaxy vs Whitecaps-0.9+0.7+1.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well DC United finishes out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inSupportersChance will finish regular season at seedWooden
TPW-D-LplayoffsShield12345678910SpoonCount
69-73In99.7%100No41,912,350*
689-1-1In99.010000No57,222,148
678-3-0In97.810000No91,837,210*
668-2-1In95.79910No205,721,923
658-1-2In91.99910No333,095,408*
647-3-1In85.09730No526,177,336*
637-2-2In75.79370No751,332,577
6-5-0In76.09640No102,795,896
626-4-1In62.490100No594,112,735
7-1-3In62.488120No571,172,351
616-3-2In47.282180No1,356,878,914
7-0-4In46.180190No241,334,539*
606-2-3In31.8722800No1,530,022,601
5-5-1In31.2752400No552,623,596
595-4-2In17.9633710No1,560,544,373
6-1-4In17.9594000No896,181,484*
585-3-3In8.7494910No2,320,598,706
4-6-1In8.2534620No353,727,000
6-0-5In8.0445510No187,084,552
575-2-4In3.3366130No1,916,211,327
4-5-2In3.1395830No1,202,924,143*
564-4-3In0.92768600No2,180,592,110
5-1-5In0.92471500No832,898,914
3-7-1In0.8296560No153,860,465
554-3-4In0.21774900No2,375,561,329
3-6-2In0.218711100No595,497,313
5-0-6In0.21577800No153,202,607*
544-2-5In0.010761400No1,532,642,097
3-5-3In0.011731600No1,344,178,888*
533-4-4100.0%0.057123100No1,752,903,148
4-1-6In0.05752010No542,106,939
2-7-2In0.06682610No191,356,372*
523-3-5100.00.026531200No1,492,580,190
2-6-3100.00.026233200No569,309,685*
513-2-6100.00.015639400No784,040,111
2-5-4100.00.015342400No805,486,234*
502-4-5100.0No042499000No811,678,315
3-1-7100.0No042489000No333,655,240*
492-3-6100.0No0295317100No562,949,713
1-6-4100.0No0275418100No219,218,813*
482-2-799.8No01850284000No247,776,160
1-5-599.8No01651284000No242,916,128*
471-4-699.1No08413911100No282,807,006*
461-3-796.1No032644234000No151,562,395*
451-2-887.9No0113393511100No72,432,620*
440-4-771.0No04254224500No30,183,466*
430-3-846.4No011135381420No11,155,484*
420-2-922.5No00319413070No3,344,959
410-1-107.6No00730421920No650,094
400-0-111.6No00215423660No4,465,454
Total:99.9%14.1%3549132000000No33,674,523,418

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well DC United finishes out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPW-D-LWin CupByeSporting KCToronto FCCrewRed BullsNew EnglandUnionFireDynamoImpact
61-7312.5%Yes
606-2-312.51000000
5-5-112.510000000
595-4-212.51000000000
6-1-412.51000000000
4-7-012.510000000
585-3-312.51000000000
4-6-112.5100000000
6-0-512.510000000000
575-2-412.510000000000
4-5-212.5100000000000
3-8-012.5100000000
564-4-312.5100000000000
5-1-512.5100000000000
3-7-112.5100000000000
554-3-412.5100000000000
3-6-212.5100000000000
5-0-612.5100000000000
544-2-512.5100000000000
3-5-312.5100000000000
2-8-112.5100000000000
533-4-412.599000000000
4-1-612.599000000000
2-7-212.599000000000
523-3-512.498000100000
2-6-312.498000100000
4-0-712.498000100000
513-2-612.496001111000
2-5-412.496001111000
1-8-212.395001211000
502-4-512.291002321100
3-1-712.291012221100
1-7-312.189012322100
492-3-611.882014533110
1-6-411.880014643110
3-0-811.881024533210
482-2-711.367037855310
1-5-511.368037855210
471-4-610.44905111288420
2-1-810.34805111288420
0-7-410.24604111499420
461-3-79.1290715161011630
0-6-59.0290615161111530
451-2-87.3130716171112740
0-5-67.5140716181212630
440-4-75.350614151011640
430-3-83.2104101177530
420-2-91.40025534210
410-1-100.5012211100
400-0-110.1000000000
Total:12.4%97.30.00.20.50.70.40.40.20.10.0
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 8/16100.0*Lottery seed
DC United 4 Rapids 2 -0.4
Sporting KC 4 Toronto FC 1 +0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 8/23100.0*Lottery seed
Sporting KC vs DC United+0.4-0.1-0.8
Galaxy vs DC United+0.3-0.0-0.6
Sporting KC vs Dynamo+0.1-0.1-0.2
Toronto FC vs Fire+0.1-0.1-0.1

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPW-D-L12345678910111213141516171819
7311-0-01000
7110-1-01000
7010-0-11000
699-2-01000
689-1-1991000
678-3-0982000
668-2-1964100
658-1-2927100
647-3-18512300
637-2-276186000
626-4-1622810000
7-1-3622512000
616-3-2473517100
7-0-4463418100
606-2-33240253000
5-5-13144213000
595-4-21845298100
6-1-418413280000
585-3-394132181000
4-6-184528181000
6-0-58363519100
575-2-433329322000
4-5-233626323000
564-4-3126194841000
5-1-5124214941000
554-3-4017126254000
3-6-2017106264000
544-2-5010571680000
3-5-30114696100000
533-4-40517051800000
4-1-6052735150000
2-7-2061675201000
523-3-50206532711000
2-6-30206233011000
513-2-601056237120000
2-5-401052241130000
502-4-50041149270000
3-1-700441472700000
492-3-6002905321510000
1-6-4002705421611000
482-2-70018050127220000
1-5-50016051127220000
471-4-608041039381000
461-3-70302604441931000
451-2-80113039333751000
440-4-70402514010135100
430-3-801110341024154000
420-2-900301962529143000
410-1-100007215322912200
400-0-11000205203527910
Total:14211436210020000000000