SPORTS CLUB STATS

Your team’s chances of making the playoffs

Holy capitalism Batman,
we’re in the Wall Street Journal

DC United Playoff Chances

Did not play, playoff odds up 0.1 to 99.7%

34 points 10-4-5

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 7/19	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Win MLS Cup	100.0*	Supporters Shield	100.0*	Wooden Spoon	100.0*	Average seed
DC United 3 Chivas USA 1	+0.6		+0.2		+2.6				+0.2
Red Bulls 1 Earthquakes 1	+0.1		+0.0
FC Dallas 2 New England 0	+0.1		+0.0
Fire 1 Union 1	+0.1
Crew 2 Impact 1	-0.1
Dynamo 2 Toronto FC 2					+0.1				+0.0
Sporting KC 2 Galaxy 1					-0.1				-0.1
Real Salt Lake 1 Whitecaps 1					+0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Real Salt Lake vs Impact					-0.1+0.1+0.1

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 7/26	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Win MLS Cup	100.0*	Supporters Shield	100.0*	Wooden Spoon	100.0*	Average seed
DC United vs Toronto FC	+0.2-0.1-0.5		+0.1-0.1-0.2		+4.3-3.3-5.7		NoNo+0.0		+0.2-0.1-0.3
Sporting KC vs Union	+0.0*-0.0-0.1				-0.8+0.8+1.3				-0.1+0.1+0.1
Real Salt Lake vs Red Bulls	+0.0*-0.0-0.1				-0.1+0.1+0.1
New England vs Rapids	-0.1+0.0+0.1				+0.0*+0.0-0.1
Toronto FC vs Sporting KC					+0.7+0.4-1.3
Sounders vs Galaxy					-2.5+1.8+2.5
Whitecaps vs FC Dallas					*-0.0+0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well DC United finishes out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Supporters		Chance will finish regular season at seed										Wooden
TP		W	-	D	-	L	playoffs		Shield		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	Spoon		Count

72	-79						In		98.4	%	100										No		32,901	*
71		12	-	1	-	2	In		95.7		100	0									No		30,082	*
70		11	-	3	-	1	In		93.6		100	0									No		58,179	*
69		11	-	2	-	2	In		90.9		100	0									No		104,625	*
68		10	-	4	-	1	In		86.7		100	0									No		169,329	*
67		10	-	3	-	2	In		81.8		99	1									No		276,680	*
66		10	-	2	-	3	In		75.4		98	2	0								No		421,665	*
65		9	-	4	-	2	In		67.5		96	4	0								No		609,185	*
64		9	-	3	-	3	In		58.6		94	6	0								No		859,535	*
63		8	-	5	-	2	In		47.3		91	9	0								No		592,847
		9	-	2	-	4	In		50.1		90	10	0								No		545,734	*
62		8	-	4	-	3	In		38.3		85	15	0								No		1,456,347	*
61		8	-	3	-	4	In		29.1		78	22	0								No		1,161,157
		7	-	6	-	2	In		27.0		79	21	0								No		634,526	*
60		7	-	5	-	3	In		18.6		71	29	1	0							No		1,263,152
		8	-	2	-	5	In		20.3		70	30	0	0							No		843,524	*
59		7	-	4	-	4	In		12.1		61	38	1	0							No		1,690,291
		6	-	7	-	2	In		11.6		61	38	1	0							No		695,840	*
58		7	-	3	-	5	In		7.0		50	47	2	0							No		1,435,429
		6	-	6	-	3	In		6.1		51	47	2	0							No		1,160,714	*
57		6	-	5	-	4	In		3.0		40	55	5	0							No		1,712,700
		7	-	2	-	6	In		3.3		40	56	4	0							No		991,564	*
56		6	-	4	-	5	In		1.3		30	62	8	0							No		1,804,732
		5	-	7	-	3	In		1.2		30	62	8	0							No		909,421	*
55		6	-	3	-	6	In		0.4		21	66	12	0	0						No		1,252,780
		5	-	6	-	4	In		0.4		21	65	14	0	0						No		1,356,253	*
54		5	-	5	-	5	In		0.1		14	66	20	0	0						No		1,546,688
		6	-	2	-	7	In		0.1		13	66	20	0	0						No		860,574	*
53		5	-	4	-	6	In		0.0		8	63	28	1	0						No		1,336,199
		4	-	7	-	4	In		0.0		8	62	30	1	0						No		798,518	*
52		4	-	6	-	5	100.0	%	0.0		4	54	39	3	0	0					No		916,679
		5	-	3	-	7	100.0		0.0		4	56	37	3	0	0					No		893,184	*
51		4	-	5	-	6	100.0		0.0		2	45	47	6	0	0					No		1,470,070	*
50		4	-	4	-	7	100.0		No		1	33	53	12	1	0					No		1,142,588	*
49		3	-	6	-	6	99.9		No		0	22	55	21	2	0	0				No		846,643	*
48		3	-	5	-	7	99.7		No		0	13	50	31	6	0	0				No		598,100	*
47		3	-	4	-	8	98.6		No		0	7	40	40	13	1	0	0			No		401,343	*
46		2	-	6	-	7	95.6		No			3	27	44	23	4	0	0			No		255,437	*
45		2	-	5	-	8	88.5		No			1	15	39	33	10	1	0			No		153,303	*
44		2	-	4	-	9	75.3		No			0	7	28	40	21	4	0			No		87,280	*
43		1	-	6	-	8	56.5		No			0	2	16	38	32	10	1	0		No		46,258	*
42		1	-	5	-	9	34.9		No			0	1	7	28	40	22	4	0		No		22,800	*
41		1	-	4	-	10	17.3		No				0	2	15	39	34	10	0		No		10,539	*
40		1	-	3	-	11	7.1		No					1	7	27	42	21	2	0	No		4,330	*
39		0	-	5	-	10	1.9		No					0	2	13	42	37	6	0	0.1	%	1,621	*
38		0	-	4	-	11	0.2		No						0	5	34	45	15	1	No		518	*
37		0	-	3	-	12	Out		No							1	21	45	27	5	1.9		157	*
36		0	-	2	-	13	Out		No							3	14	39	36	8	2.8		36
35		0	-	1	-	14	Out		No									67		33	33.3		3
34		0	-	0	-	15	Out		No								1	17	57	26	18.4		4,380

Total:							99.7	%	13.2	%	40	41	15	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0.0	%	33,466,440

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well DC United finishes out the regular season. Explain


If finish:									Chance will play in first round
TP		W	-	D	-	L	Win Cup		Bye	Sporting KC	Toronto FC	New England	Red Bulls	Crew	Union	Fire	Dynamo	Impact

61	-79						12.5	%	Yes
60		7	-	5	-	3	12.5		100					0
		8	-	2	-	5	12.5		100			0
		6	-	8	-	1	12.4		Yes
59		7	-	4	-	4	12.5		100			0	0	0	0
		6	-	7	-	2	12.5		100			0	0	0
		8	-	1	-	6	12.5		Yes
58		7	-	3	-	5	12.5		100				0	0	0	0	0
		6	-	6	-	3	12.5		100			0	0	0	0	0
57		6	-	5	-	4	12.5		100		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
		7	-	2	-	6	12.5		100			0	0	0	0	0	0
		5	-	8	-	2	12.5		100			0	0	0	0	0		0
56		6	-	4	-	5	12.5		100		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
		5	-	7	-	3	12.6		100			0	0	0	0	0	0	0
		7	-	1	-	7	12.5		100		0	0	0	0	0	0
55		6	-	3	-	6	12.5		100	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
		5	-	6	-	4	12.5		100	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
		4	-	9	-	2	12.5		100			0	0	0	0	0	0
54		5	-	5	-	5	12.5		100	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
		6	-	2	-	7	12.6		100	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
		4	-	8	-	3	12.5		100	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
53		5	-	4	-	6	12.4		99	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
		4	-	7	-	4	12.5		99	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
		6	-	1	-	8	12.5		99	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
52		4	-	6	-	5	12.4		97	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	0
		5	-	3	-	7	12.5		97	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	0
		3	-	9	-	3	12.5		97	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	0
51		4	-	5	-	6	12.3		94	0	0	1	2	1	1	1	0	0
		5	-	2	-	8	12.4		94	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	0
		3	-	8	-	4	12.3		93	0	0	2	2	1	1	1	0	0
50		4	-	4	-	7	12.1		88	0	1	2	3	2	2	1	0	0
		3	-	7	-	5	12.1		86	0	1	3	3	2	3	1	0	0
49		3	-	6	-	6	11.7		77	0	2	5	5	4	4	3	0	0
		4	-	3	-	8	11.7		77	0	2	4	5	4	4	3	0	0
48		3	-	5	-	7	11.2		64	0	3	7	8	6	6	4	1	0
		4	-	2	-	9	11.2		63	0	3	7	8	6	6	4	1	0
		2	-	8	-	5	11.0		60	0	3	8	9	7	7	4	1	0
47		3	-	4	-	8	10.4		47	0	4	10	11	9	9	6	1	0
		2	-	7	-	6	10.2		45	0	4	10	12	10	10	6	1	0
46		2	-	6	-	7	9.2		29	0	6	13	14	11	12	8	1	1
		3	-	3	-	9	9.2		29	0	6	13	14	11	12	8	2	1
45		2	-	5	-	8	7.7		16	0	6	14	16	13	13	9	2	1
44		2	-	4	-	9	6.0		7	0	5	13	15	12	12	9	2	1
43		1	-	6	-	8	4.2		2	0	4	11	12	9	10	7	2	1
42		1	-	5	-	9	2.5		1	0	2	6	7	6	6	5	1	0
41		1	-	4	-	10	1.1		0		1	4	4	3	3	2	1	0
40		1	-	3	-	11	0.5			0	0	1	2	1	1	1	0	0
39		0	-	5	-	10	0.1				0	0	0	0	1	0	0
38		1	-	1	-	13	No							0
34	-37						No

Total:							12.3	%	95.7	0.0	0.3	0.8	0.9	0.7	0.7	0.5	0.1	0.0

Points (Full Screen)

Chance Will Make Playoffs (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 7/19	100.0*	Lottery seed
DC United 3 Chivas USA 1	-0.4
Sporting KC 2 Galaxy 1	+0.1
Dynamo 2 Toronto FC 2	-0.0
FC Dallas 2 New England 0	-0.0

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 7/26	100.0*	Lottery seed
DC United vs Toronto FC	-0.4+0.2+0.7
Sporting KC vs Union	+0.1-0.1-0.1
Toronto FC vs Sporting KC	+0.0-0.1+0.1

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W	-	D	-	L	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19

77	-79						100
76		14	-	0	-	1	100	0
75		13	-	2	-	0	99	1
74		13	-	1	-	1	99	1
73		12	-	3	-	0	98	2
72		12	-	2	-	1	98	2
71		12	-	1	-	2	96	4	0
70		11	-	3	-	1	94	6	0
69		11	-	2	-	2	91	9	0
68		10	-	4	-	1	87	13	0
67		10	-	3	-	2	82	17	1
66		10	-	2	-	3	75	23	2	0	0
65		9	-	4	-	2	67	29	3	0	0
64		9	-	3	-	3	59	35	6	0	0
63		8	-	5	-	2	49	42	10	0	0
62		8	-	4	-	3	38	47	15	0	0
61		8	-	3	-	4	28	50	21	1	0
60		7	-	5	-	3	19	51	27	2	0	0	0
59		7	-	4	-	4	12	49	34	5	1	0	0
58		7	-	3	-	5	7	43	39	9	2	0	0
		6	-	6	-	3	6	45	37	9	2	0	0
57		6	-	5	-	4	3	37	39	16	4	0	0
		7	-	2	-	6	3	37	40	16	4	0	0
56		6	-	4	-	5	1	29	37	25	7	0	0
		5	-	7	-	3	1	29	36	26	8	0	0
55		6	-	3	-	6	0	21	31	36	11	1	0	0	0
		5	-	6	-	4	0	20	29	36	12	1	0	0	0
54		5	-	5	-	5	0	13	21	45	17	4	0	0	0
		6	-	2	-	7	0	13	21	45	16	4	0	0	0
53		5	-	4	-	6	0	8	12	50	20	9	1	0	0
52		4	-	6	-	5	0	4	6	48	20	18	3	0	0	0	0
		5	-	3	-	7	0	4	6	50	20	17	2	0	0	0	0
51		4	-	5	-	6	0	2	2	43	17	30	5	1	0	0	0
50		4	-	4	-	7		1	1	33	11	42	8	4	1	0	0	0
49		3	-	6	-	6		0	0	22	5	50	10	11	2	0	0	0
48		3	-	5	-	7		0	0	13	2	48	8	23	4	2	0	0	0	0
47		3	-	4	-	8		0	0	7	0	39	5	35	6	6	1	0	0	0
46		2	-	6	-	7				3	0	27	2	42	7	16	3	1	0	0	0
45		2	-	5	-	8				1	0	15	0	39	5	29	6	4	1	0	0
44		2	-	4	-	9				0		7	0	28	2	38	7	10	6	1	0	0
43		1	-	6	-	8				0		2		16	0	37	5	16	15	6	1	0	0
42		1	-	5	-	9				0		1		7	0	28	3	15	25	17	5	1	0
41		1	-	4	-	10						0		2	0	15	1	9	26	28	15	4	0	0
40		1	-	3	-	11								1		7	0	3	16	31	29	12	3	0
39		0	-	5	-	10								0		2		1	5	21	35	27	8	1	0
38		0	-	4	-	11										0			2	11	30	33	18	5
37		0	-	3	-	12													1	4	17	34	32	11	2
36		0	-	2	-	13														3	11	39	28	17	3
35		0	-	1	-	14															33	33			33
34		0	-	0	-	15															0	6	28	48	18

Total:							13	27	21	20	7	8	1	2	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0