DC United Playoff Chances

Did not play, playoff odds down 0.005 to 99.7%
34 points   10-4-5

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 7/26100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Average seed
Toronto FC 1 Sporting KC 2 -1.3
Sounders 0 Galaxy 3 +2.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
DC United vs Toronto FC+0.2-0.1-0.5
+0.1-0.0-0.2
+4.5-3.6-6.1
+0.2-0.1-0.3
Sporting KC vs Union+0.0*-0.0-0.1
-1.4+1.3+2.2
-0.1+0.1+0.1
Real Salt Lake vs Red Bulls+0.0*+0.0-0.1
-0.2+0.1+0.2
New England vs Rapids-0.1+0.0+0.0
+0.1+0.1-0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 8/2100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Average seed
Dynamo vs DC United-0.4-0.0+0.2
-0.1-0.0+0.1
-5.6-3.1+5.2
-0.2-0.1+0.2
Impact vs Toronto FC+0.1+0.0-0.1
+0.0+0.0-0.1
Galaxy vs Earthquakes-0.8+0.7+1.2
Earthquakes vs Sounders+1.5+0.4-2.9
Galaxy vs Timbers-0.8+0.7+1.2
Rapids vs Real Salt Lake+0.1+0.1-0.3

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well DC United finishes out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inSupportersChance will finish regular season at seedWooden
TPW-D-LplayoffsShield12345678910SpoonCount
75-79In100.0%100No2,525,594*
7413-1-1In99.91000No1,282,560
7312-3-0In99.71000No2,569,705*
7212-2-1In99.41000No6,400,328
7112-1-2In98.91000No11,623,619*
7011-3-1In97.91000No22,348,960*
6911-2-2In96.4991No40,712,814*
6810-4-1In93.99910No66,151,483*
6710-3-2In90.09820No108,666,813*
6610-2-3In84.59640No165,508,853*
659-4-2In76.89370No239,340,558*
649-3-3In67.388120No338,387,378*
638-5-2In56.0821800No449,724,301*
628-4-3In43.7752500No576,207,369*
618-3-4In31.7663400No712,356,800*
607-5-3In20.5574300No495,095,091
8-2-5In21.5564400No342,402,166*
597-4-4In12.4465310No950,795,760*
587-3-5In6.7366320No584,177,257
6-6-3In6.1366220No453,190,855*
576-5-4In2.82769300No679,865,620
7-2-6In2.92770300No402,368,148*
566-4-5In1.11975600No729,438,716
5-7-3In1.01975600No359,542,316*
556-3-6In0.31278900No516,708,407
5-6-4In0.312771100No534,414,015*
545-5-5In0.17761600No621,263,518
6-2-7In0.17771500No350,366,284*
535-4-6100.0%0.047322100No546,229,325
4-7-4100.00.047124100No317,929,245*
524-6-5100.00.026332300No365,591,982
5-3-7100.00.026531200No370,067,114*
514-5-6100.00.0153405000No599,060,841*
504-4-7100.00.00414711100No467,555,004*
493-6-699.9No02851192000No348,025,513*
483-5-799.7No01748295000No246,721,466*
473-4-898.8No09403812100No166,672,922*
462-6-795.8No04274322400No106,650,059*
452-5-888.9No0115393310100No64,465,630*
442-4-975.6No07294020400No36,746,891*
431-6-856.4No021638321010No19,598,059*
421-5-935.3No01728402140No9,715,340*
411-4-1017.6No00215383410000.0%4,457,310*
401-3-116.8No006284221200.01,864,213*
390-5-102.0No02154136600.0694,566*
380-4-110.4No00631471400.0227,733*
370-3-120.1No0219512710.363,462*
360-2-13OutNo010464131.213,479
350-1-14OutNo04355563.61,843
340-0-150.0No0012364127.81,759,237
Total:99.7%14.4%32521331000000.0%13,437,546,522

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well DC United finishes out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPW-D-LWin CupByeSporting KCToronto FCCrewRed BullsNew EnglandUnionFireDynamoImpact
64-7912.5%Yes
638-5-212.51000
9-2-412.510000
628-4-312.51000000
9-1-512.510000
618-3-412.5100000000
7-6-212.510000000
607-5-312.510000000000
8-2-512.5100000000
597-4-412.510000000000
6-7-212.51000000000
8-1-612.51000000000
587-3-512.5100000000000
6-6-312.5100000000000
576-5-412.5100000000000
7-2-612.5100000000000
5-8-212.5100000000000
566-4-512.5100000000000
5-7-312.5100000000000
7-1-712.5100000000000
556-3-612.5100000000000
5-6-412.5100000000000
545-5-512.5100000000000
6-2-712.5100000000000
4-8-312.5100000000000
535-4-612.599000000000
4-7-412.599000000000
524-6-512.497000100000
5-3-712.498000100000
514-5-612.395001111100
5-2-812.395001111100
3-8-412.394001211100
504-4-712.190012322100
3-7-512.188012322100
493-6-611.779024534200
4-3-811.880024533200
483-5-711.266047856410
473-4-810.34906111178610
462-6-79.231071414911810
452-5-87.7170815161012920
442-4-96.070714151012920
431-6-84.1205111289720
421-5-92.41037856510
411-4-101.20014423210
401-3-110.40012211100
390-5-100.100100000
380-4-110.000000000
370-3-120.00000000
35-36No
340-0-15No0
Total:12.3%95.90.00.40.80.90.60.60.40.10.0
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 7/26100.0*Lottery seed
Toronto FC 1 Sporting KC 2 +0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
DC United vs Toronto FC-0.4+0.2+0.7
Sporting KC vs Union+0.1-0.1-0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 8/2100.0*Lottery seed
Dynamo vs DC United+0.5+0.2-0.4
Impact vs Toronto FC-0.1-0.0+0.1

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPW-D-L12345678910111213141516171819
7915-0-01000
7714-1-01000
7614-0-11000
7513-2-01000
7413-1-110000
7312-3-010000
7212-2-19910
7112-1-29910
7011-3-19820
6911-2-296310
6810-4-1945100
6710-3-2908200
6610-2-38511400
659-4-27716700
649-3-367211200
638-5-25626180000
628-4-34431241000
618-3-43234322000
607-5-32135385000
597-4-412344310100
587-3-57294517200
6-6-363043182000
576-5-4324412930000
7-2-6324422830000
566-4-5118344151000
5-7-3118334261000
556-3-6012255382000
5-6-4012235492000
545-5-50714621150000
535-4-604765121110000
524-6-502261112120000
5-3-702362111920000
514-5-601153832420000
504-4-7000415435510000
493-6-6002824961320000
483-5-70017048424320000
473-4-80090402364710000
462-6-704027142417310000
452-5-801015039330552000
442-4-900702913951072000
431-6-8020160384141771000
421-5-901702821325186100
411-4-10002015172430164000
401-3-1100060215322912200
390-5-1002016223525810
380-4-11000021129361830
370-3-12000418373190
360-2-130193040201
350-1-14031942324
340-0-150001936468
Total:14172229481201000000000