SPORTS CLUB STATS

Your team’s chances of making the playoffs

DC United Playoff Chances

Beat Atlanta 2-1, playoff odds up 2.1 to 3.3%

18 points 5-3-8

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 6/17	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Supporters Shield	100.0*	Wooden Spoon	100.0*	Average seed
DC United 2 Atlanta 1	+1.2				-10.9		+0.3
Toronto FC 2 DC United 0	-0.6		-0.0		+2.4		-0.1
New England 1 Chicago 2	+0.2
Orlando 3 Montreal 3	+0.1
NYCFC 2 Seattle 1	-0.1				-0.1
Seattle 1 Orlando 1					-0.1
Minnesota 3 Portland 2					+3.0
Real Salt Lake 1 Minnesota 0					+2.2
Colorado 2 Portland 1					+1.4
Colorado 1 Los Angeles 3					-0.8

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 6/23	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Supporters Shield	100.0*	Wooden Spoon	100.0*	Average seed
Philadelphia vs DC United	-1.1+0.1+4.1		-0.0-0.0+0.1		+3.5-1.8-10.4		-0.2+0.1+0.6
Chicago vs Orlando	+0.1-0.0-0.4
Toronto FC vs New England	+0.1-0.0-0.4				-0.0+0.0+0.1		+0.0-0.0-0.1
Atlanta vs Colorado	-0.2+0.2+0.3				-0.5+0.2+1.6
NY Red Bulls vs NYCFC	-0.2+0.1+0.2				+0.1*-0.0-0.1
Columbus vs Montreal	-0.1+0.2-0.1
NYCFC vs Minnesota	-0.1+0.1+0.1				-0.5+0.3+1.8
San Jose vs Real Salt Lake					-1.1+0.3+3.5
Minnesota vs Vancouver					+1.3-0.4-1.3
Portland vs Seattle					-0.1+0.1+0.3

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the DC United finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Supporters		Chance will finish regular season at seed											Wooden
TP		W	-	D	-	L	playoffs		Shield		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	Spoon		Count

72		18	-	0	-	0	In		99.4	%	99	1										No		80,622
67		16	-	1	-	1	In		50.0		50	50										No		2
66		15	-	3	-	0	In		Yes		100											No		1
65		15	-	2	-	1	In		80.0		80	20										No		15
64		15	-	1	-	2	In		77.5		78	23										No		40	*
63		14	-	3	-	1	In		51.8		56	38	4	1								No		112	*
62		14	-	2	-	2	In		49.2		59	33	7	1								No		323	*
61		13	-	4	-	1	In		26.6		38	51	11	1								No		779	*
60		13	-	3	-	2	In		21.9		33	47	18	1								No		1,946	*
59		13	-	2	-	3	In		13.7		23	49	24	3	0							No		4,445	*
58		12	-	4	-	2	In		6.8		15	46	34	6	0	0						No		9,781	*
57		12	-	3	-	3	In		2.8		9	38	42	11	1							No		21,290	*
56		12	-	2	-	4	In		0.9		4	29	47	18	2	0						No		44,816	*
55		11	-	4	-	3	In		0.2		2	20	47	27	4	0						No		88,669	*
54		11	-	3	-	4	100.0	%	0.0		1	12	42	36	8	0	0					No		171,142	*
53		10	-	5	-	3	99.9		0.0		0	6	34	43	15	2	0	0				No		316,878	*
52		10	-	4	-	4	99.8		0.0		0	3	23	45	25	4	0	0				No		567,032	*
51		10	-	3	-	5	99.0		No		0	1	14	40	34	10	1	0	0			No		981,272	*
50		9	-	5	-	4	96.5		No		0	0	7	31	40	18	3	0	0			No		1,636,996	*
49		9	-	4	-	5	90.6		No		0	0	3	19	40	29	8	1	0	0		No		2,634,923	*
48		9	-	3	-	6	79.2		No		0	0	1	10	32	36	17	3	0	0	0	No		4,116,308	*
47		8	-	5	-	5	62.0		No			0	0	4	21	37	28	9	1	0	0	No		6,191,562	*
46		8	-	4	-	6	41.9		No			0	0	1	11	30	35	18	4	0	0	No		9,029,694	*
45		7	-	6	-	5	23.7		No				0	0	4	19	35	29	11	1	0	No		12,724,166	*
44		7	-	5	-	6	10.8		No				0	0	1	9	28	36	20	5	0	No		17,297,949	*
43		7	-	4	-	7	3.9		No				0	0	0	4	17	35	31	11	1	No		22,769,417	*
42		6	-	6	-	6	1.1		No					0	0	1	8	27	38	21	4	0.0	%	28,953,747	*
41		6	-	5	-	7	0.2		No					0	0	0	3	17	38	33	8	0.0		35,509,841	*
40		6	-	4	-	8	0.0		No						0	0	1	9	31	42	17	0.0		42,094,690	*
39		5	-	6	-	7	0.0		No						0	0	0	4	22	47	28	0.1		48,119,018	*
38		5	-	5	-	8	0.0		No						0	0	0	1	13	45	41	0.5		52,972,902	*
37		5	-	4	-	9	0.0		No							0	0	0	7	39	53	1.7		31,545,674
		4	-	7	-	7	0.0		No							0	0	0	6	38	56	2.0		24,692,120	*
36		4	-	6	-	8	0.0		No							0	0	0	3	30	67	5.1		57,418,235	*
35		4	-	5	-	9	Out		No								0	0	1	22	77	11.3		56,286,237	*
34		4	-	4	-	10	Out		No								0	0	0	15	85	20.7		53,008,724	*
33		3	-	6	-	9	Out		No									0	0	10	90	32.7		47,810,326	*
32		3	-	5	-	10	Out		No									0	0	6	94	46.1		41,204,869	*
31		3	-	4	-	11	Out		No									0	0	3	97	59.2		33,913,777	*
30		2	-	6	-	10	Out		No										0	2	98	71.0		26,545,041	*
29		2	-	5	-	11	Out		No										0	1	99	80.6		19,667,762	*
28		2	-	4	-	12	Out		No										0	1	99	87.8		13,795,219	*
27		2	-	3	-	13	Out		No											0	100	92.8		9,087,980	*
26		1	-	5	-	12	Out		No											0	100	96.1		5,584,562	*
25		1	-	4	-	13	Out		No											0	100	98.1		3,183,751	*
24		1	-	3	-	14	Out		No											0	100	99.1		1,666,589	*
23		0	-	5	-	13	Out		No											0	100	99.6		783,454	*
22		0	-	4	-	14	Out		No											0	100	99.9		325,370	*
21		0	-	3	-	15	Out		No											0	100	100.0		116,908	*
18	-20						Out		No												100	100.0		120,392	*

Total:							3.3	%	0.0	%	0	0	0	0	1	2	3	6	10	22	56	20.1	%	713,097,368

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 6/17	100.0*	Lottery seed
DC United 2 Atlanta 1	-0.7
Toronto FC 2 DC United 0	+0.2
Minnesota 3 Portland 2	+0.1
Colorado 2 Portland 1	+0.1

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 6/23	100.0*	Lottery seed
Philadelphia vs DC United	+0.4-0.1-1.3
NYCFC vs Minnesota	-0.0+0.0+0.1
Minnesota vs Vancouver	+0.1-0.0-0.1
Atlanta vs Colorado	-0.0-0.0+0.1
San Jose vs Real Salt Lake	-0.0-0.0+0.1
Toronto FC vs New England	-0.0+0.0+0.1
Portland vs Seattle	-0.0+0.0+0.1

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W	-	D	-	L	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22

72		18	-	0	-	0	99	0	1
67		16	-	1	-	1	50		50
66		15	-	3	-	0	100
65		15	-	2	-	1	80		20
64		15	-	1	-	2	78		23
63		14	-	3	-	1	52	4	38		4		1
62		14	-	2	-	2	49	10	33	1	7		1
61		13	-	4	-	1	27	11	50	1	11		1
60		13	-	3	-	2	22	11	46	1	18	0	1
59		13	-	2	-	3	14	10	47	2	24	0	3		0
58		12	-	4	-	2	7	8	41	4	34	0	6		0		0
57		12	-	3	-	3	3	6	32	7	41	1	11	0	1
56		12	-	2	-	4	1	3	21	8	45	2	18	0	2		0
55		11	-	4	-	3	0	2	12	9	43	4	27	0	4		0
54		11	-	3	-	4	0	1	5	7	36	7	36	1	8	0	0		0
53		10	-	5	-	3	0	0	1	5	24	10	41	2	15	0	2		0	0
52		10	-	4	-	4	0	0	0	2	12	11	40	5	24	0	4	0	0	0
51		10	-	3	-	5		0	0	1	5	9	31	10	33	1	10	0	1	0	0
50		9	-	5	-	4		0	0	0	1	6	18	13	36	4	18	0	3	0	0
49		9	-	4	-	5		0	0	0	0	3	7	12	31	9	28	1	8	1	0	0
48		9	-	3	-	6		0		0	0	1	2	8	19	13	33	3	17	4	0	0	0
47		8	-	5	-	5				0	0	0	0	4	8	13	29	8	27	10	1	0	0	0
46		8	-	4	-	6				0	0	0	0	1	2	9	18	12	33	20	5	1	0	0
45		7	-	6	-	5						0	0	0	0	4	7	12	29	30	14	3	0	0	0
44		7	-	5	-	6						0	0	0	0	1	2	8	18	32	26	11	2	0	0	0
43		7	-	4	-	7						0		0	0	0	0	3	7	23	32	23	9	2	0	0	0
42		6	-	6	-	6								0	0	0	0	1	2	11	25	31	21	8	1	0	0	0
41		6	-	5	-	7								0		0	0	0	0	3	13	27	31	19	6	1	0	0
40		6	-	4	-	8										0	0	0	0	1	4	15	29	30	16	4	0	0
39		5	-	6	-	7										0		0	0	0	1	6	19	33	28	11	2	0
38		5	-	5	-	8										0		0	0	0	0	2	9	25	35	23	6	0
37		5	-	4	-	9												0		0	0	0	3	14	33	34	14	2
36		4	-	6	-	8												0		0	0	0	1	6	23	39	26	5
35		4	-	5	-	9															0	0	0	2	14	36	37	11
34		4	-	4	-	10															0	0	0	1	7	28	44	21
33		3	-	6	-	9																0	0	0	3	18	46	33
32		3	-	5	-	10																0	0	0	1	11	42	46
31		3	-	4	-	11																	0	0	0	5	35	59
30		2	-	6	-	10																		0	0	2	27	71
29		2	-	5	-	11																		0	0	1	18	81
28		2	-	4	-	12																			0	0	12	88
27		2	-	3	-	13																			0	0	7	93
26		1	-	5	-	12																			0	0	4	96
25		1	-	4	-	13																				0	2	98
24		1	-	3	-	14																				0	1	99
23		0	-	5	-	13																					0	100
22		0	-	4	-	14																					0	100
21		0	-	3	-	15																					0	100
20		0	-	2	-	16																					0	100
18	-19																											100

Total:							0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	2	3	4	5	7	9	12	16	19	20