DC United Playoff Chances

Did not play, playoff odds down 0.005 to 99.7%

34 points 10-4-5

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 7/26	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Win MLS Cup	100.0*	Supporters Shield	100.0*	Average seed
Toronto FC 1 Sporting KC 2					-1.3
Sounders 0 Galaxy 3					+2.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
DC United vs Toronto FC	+0.2-0.1-0.5		+0.1-0.0-0.2		+4.5-3.6-6.1		+0.2-0.1-0.3
Sporting KC vs Union	+0.0*-0.0-0.1				-1.4+1.3+2.2		-0.1+0.1+0.1
Real Salt Lake vs Red Bulls	+0.0*+0.0-0.1				-0.2+0.1+0.2
New England vs Rapids	-0.1+0.0+0.0				+0.1+0.1-0.1

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 8/2	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Win MLS Cup	100.0*	Supporters Shield	100.0*	Average seed
Dynamo vs DC United	-0.4-0.0+0.2		-0.1-0.0+0.1		-5.6-3.1+5.2		-0.2-0.1+0.2
Impact vs Toronto FC					+0.1+0.0-0.1		+0.0+0.0-0.1
Galaxy vs Earthquakes					-0.8+0.7+1.2
Earthquakes vs Sounders					+1.5+0.4-2.9
Galaxy vs Timbers					-0.8+0.7+1.2
Rapids vs Real Salt Lake					+0.1+0.1-0.3

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well DC United finishes out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Supporters		Chance will finish regular season at seed										Wooden
TP		W	-	D	-	L	playoffs		Shield		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	Spoon		Count

75	-79						In		100.0	%	100										No		2,525,594	*
74		13	-	1	-	1	In		99.9		100	0									No		1,282,560
73		12	-	3	-	0	In		99.7		100	0									No		2,569,705	*
72		12	-	2	-	1	In		99.4		100	0									No		6,400,328
71		12	-	1	-	2	In		98.9		100	0									No		11,623,619	*
70		11	-	3	-	1	In		97.9		100	0									No		22,348,960	*
69		11	-	2	-	2	In		96.4		99	1									No		40,712,814	*
68		10	-	4	-	1	In		93.9		99	1	0								No		66,151,483	*
67		10	-	3	-	2	In		90.0		98	2	0								No		108,666,813	*
66		10	-	2	-	3	In		84.5		96	4	0								No		165,508,853	*
65		9	-	4	-	2	In		76.8		93	7	0								No		239,340,558	*
64		9	-	3	-	3	In		67.3		88	12	0								No		338,387,378	*
63		8	-	5	-	2	In		56.0		82	18	0	0							No		449,724,301	*
62		8	-	4	-	3	In		43.7		75	25	0	0							No		576,207,369	*
61		8	-	3	-	4	In		31.7		66	34	0	0							No		712,356,800	*
60		7	-	5	-	3	In		20.5		57	43	0	0							No		495,095,091
		8	-	2	-	5	In		21.5		56	44	0	0							No		342,402,166	*
59		7	-	4	-	4	In		12.4		46	53	1	0							No		950,795,760	*
58		7	-	3	-	5	In		6.7		36	63	2	0							No		584,177,257
		6	-	6	-	3	In		6.1		36	62	2	0							No		453,190,855	*
57		6	-	5	-	4	In		2.8		27	69	3	0	0						No		679,865,620
		7	-	2	-	6	In		2.9		27	70	3	0	0						No		402,368,148	*
56		6	-	4	-	5	In		1.1		19	75	6	0	0						No		729,438,716
		5	-	7	-	3	In		1.0		19	75	6	0	0						No		359,542,316	*
55		6	-	3	-	6	In		0.3		12	78	9	0	0						No		516,708,407
		5	-	6	-	4	In		0.3		12	77	11	0	0						No		534,414,015	*
54		5	-	5	-	5	In		0.1		7	76	16	0	0						No		621,263,518
		6	-	2	-	7	In		0.1		7	77	15	0	0						No		350,366,284	*
53		5	-	4	-	6	100.0	%	0.0		4	73	22	1	0	0					No		546,229,325
		4	-	7	-	4	100.0		0.0		4	71	24	1	0	0					No		317,929,245	*
52		4	-	6	-	5	100.0		0.0		2	63	32	3	0	0					No		365,591,982
		5	-	3	-	7	100.0		0.0		2	65	31	2	0	0					No		370,067,114	*
51		4	-	5	-	6	100.0		0.0		1	53	40	5	0	0	0				No		599,060,841	*
50		4	-	4	-	7	100.0		0.0		0	41	47	11	1	0	0				No		467,555,004	*
49		3	-	6	-	6	99.9		No		0	28	51	19	2	0	0	0			No		348,025,513	*
48		3	-	5	-	7	99.7		No		0	17	48	29	5	0	0	0			No		246,721,466	*
47		3	-	4	-	8	98.8		No		0	9	40	38	12	1	0	0			No		166,672,922	*
46		2	-	6	-	7	95.8		No		0	4	27	43	22	4	0	0			No		106,650,059	*
45		2	-	5	-	8	88.9		No		0	1	15	39	33	10	1	0	0		No		64,465,630	*
44		2	-	4	-	9	75.6		No			0	7	29	40	20	4	0	0		No		36,746,891	*
43		1	-	6	-	8	56.4		No			0	2	16	38	32	10	1	0		No		19,598,059	*
42		1	-	5	-	9	35.3		No			0	1	7	28	40	21	4	0		No		9,715,340	*
41		1	-	4	-	10	17.6		No			0	0	2	15	38	34	10	0	0	0.0	%	4,457,310	*
40		1	-	3	-	11	6.8		No				0	0	6	28	42	21	2	0	0.0		1,864,213	*
39		0	-	5	-	10	2.0		No					0	2	15	41	36	6	0	0.0		694,566	*
38		0	-	4	-	11	0.4		No					0	0	6	31	47	14	0	0.0		227,733	*
37		0	-	3	-	12	0.1		No						0	2	19	51	27	1	0.3		63,462	*
36		0	-	2	-	13	Out		No							0	10	46	41	3	1.2		13,479
35		0	-	1	-	14	Out		No							0	4	35	55	6	3.6		1,843
34		0	-	0	-	15	0.0		No						0	0	1	23	64	12	7.8		1,759,237

Total:							99.7	%	14.4	%	32	52	13	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0.0	%	13,437,546,522

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well DC United finishes out the regular season. Explain


If finish:									Chance will play in first round
TP		W	-	D	-	L	Win Cup		Bye	Sporting KC	Toronto FC	Crew	Red Bulls	New England	Union	Fire	Dynamo	Impact

64	-79						12.5	%	Yes
63		8	-	5	-	2	12.5		100					0
		9	-	2	-	4	12.5		100						0	0
62		8	-	4	-	3	12.5		100				0	0	0	0
		9	-	1	-	5	12.5		100				0	0
61		8	-	3	-	4	12.5		100			0	0	0	0	0	0
		7	-	6	-	2	12.5		100			0	0	0	0	0
60		7	-	5	-	3	12.5		100		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
		8	-	2	-	5	12.5		100			0	0	0	0	0	0
59		7	-	4	-	4	12.5		100		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
		6	-	7	-	2	12.5		100			0	0	0	0	0	0	0
		8	-	1	-	6	12.5		100		0	0	0	0	0	0	0
58		7	-	3	-	5	12.5		100	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
		6	-	6	-	3	12.5		100	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
57		6	-	5	-	4	12.5		100	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
		7	-	2	-	6	12.5		100	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
		5	-	8	-	2	12.5		100	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
56		6	-	4	-	5	12.5		100	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
		5	-	7	-	3	12.5		100	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
		7	-	1	-	7	12.5		100	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
55		6	-	3	-	6	12.5		100	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
		5	-	6	-	4	12.5		100	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
54		5	-	5	-	5	12.5		100	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
		6	-	2	-	7	12.5		100	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
		4	-	8	-	3	12.5		100	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
53		5	-	4	-	6	12.5		99	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
		4	-	7	-	4	12.5		99	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
52		4	-	6	-	5	12.4		97	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
		5	-	3	-	7	12.4		98	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
51		4	-	5	-	6	12.3		95	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	0
		5	-	2	-	8	12.3		95	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	0
		3	-	8	-	4	12.3		94	0	0	1	2	1	1	1	0	0
50		4	-	4	-	7	12.1		90	0	1	2	3	2	2	1	0	0
		3	-	7	-	5	12.1		88	0	1	2	3	2	2	1	0	0
49		3	-	6	-	6	11.7		79	0	2	4	5	3	4	2	0	0
		4	-	3	-	8	11.8		80	0	2	4	5	3	3	2	0	0
48		3	-	5	-	7	11.2		66	0	4	7	8	5	6	4	1	0
47		3	-	4	-	8	10.3		49	0	6	11	11	7	8	6	1	0
46		2	-	6	-	7	9.2		31	0	7	14	14	9	11	8	1	0
45		2	-	5	-	8	7.7		17	0	8	15	16	10	12	9	2	0
44		2	-	4	-	9	6.0		7	0	7	14	15	10	12	9	2	0
43		1	-	6	-	8	4.1		2	0	5	11	12	8	9	7	2	0
42		1	-	5	-	9	2.4		1	0	3	7	8	5	6	5	1	0
41		1	-	4	-	10	1.2		0	0	1	4	4	2	3	2	1	0
40		1	-	3	-	11	0.4		0	0	1	2	2	1	1	1	0	0
39		0	-	5	-	10	0.1				0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
38		0	-	4	-	11	0.0				0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
37		0	-	3	-	12	0.0			0	0	0	0		0	0	0
35	-36						No
34		0	-	0	-	15	No					0

Total:							12.3	%	95.9	0.0	0.4	0.8	0.9	0.6	0.6	0.4	0.1	0.0

Points (Full Screen)

Chance Will Make Playoffs (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 7/26	100.0*	Lottery seed
Toronto FC 1 Sporting KC 2	+0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
DC United vs Toronto FC	-0.4+0.2+0.7
Sporting KC vs Union	+0.1-0.1-0.1

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 8/2	100.0*	Lottery seed
Dynamo vs DC United	+0.5+0.2-0.4
Impact vs Toronto FC	-0.1-0.0+0.1

What If

						100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W	-	D	-	L	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19

79	15	-	0	-	0	100	0
77	14	-	1	-	0	100	0
76	14	-	0	-	1	100	0
75	13	-	2	-	0	100	0
74	13	-	1	-	1	100	0	0
73	12	-	3	-	0	100	0	0
72	12	-	2	-	1	99	1	0
71	12	-	1	-	2	99	1	0
70	11	-	3	-	1	98	2	0
69	11	-	2	-	2	96	3	1	0
68	10	-	4	-	1	94	5	1	0	0
67	10	-	3	-	2	90	8	2	0	0
66	10	-	2	-	3	85	11	4	0	0
65	9	-	4	-	2	77	16	7	0	0
64	9	-	3	-	3	67	21	12	0	0
63	8	-	5	-	2	56	26	18	0	0	0	0
62	8	-	4	-	3	44	31	24	1	0	0	0
61	8	-	3	-	4	32	34	32	2	0	0	0
60	7	-	5	-	3	21	35	38	5	0	0	0
59	7	-	4	-	4	12	34	43	10	1	0	0
58	7	-	3	-	5	7	29	45	17	2	0	0
	6	-	6	-	3	6	30	43	18	2	0	0	0
57	6	-	5	-	4	3	24	41	29	3	0	0	0	0
	7	-	2	-	6	3	24	42	28	3	0	0	0	0
56	6	-	4	-	5	1	18	34	41	5	1	0	0	0
	5	-	7	-	3	1	18	33	42	6	1	0	0	0
55	6	-	3	-	6	0	12	25	53	8	2	0	0	0
	5	-	6	-	4	0	12	23	54	9	2	0	0	0
54	5	-	5	-	5	0	7	14	62	11	5	0	0	0	0
53	5	-	4	-	6	0	4	7	65	12	11	1	0	0	0	0
52	4	-	6	-	5	0	2	2	61	11	21	2	0	0	0	0
	5	-	3	-	7	0	2	3	62	11	19	2	0	0	0	0
51	4	-	5	-	6	0	1	1	53	8	32	4	2	0	0	0	0
50	4	-	4	-	7	0	0	0	41	5	43	5	5	1	0	0	0	0
49	3	-	6	-	6		0	0	28	2	49	6	13	2	0	0	0	0
48	3	-	5	-	7		0	0	17	0	48	4	24	3	2	0	0	0	0
47	3	-	4	-	8		0	0	9	0	40	2	36	4	7	1	0	0	0	0
46	2	-	6	-	7		0		4	0	27	1	42	4	17	3	1	0	0	0	0
45	2	-	5	-	8		0		1	0	15	0	39	3	30	5	5	2	0	0	0
44	2	-	4	-	9				0	0	7	0	29	1	39	5	10	7	2	0	0	0
43	1	-	6	-	8				0		2	0	16	0	38	4	14	17	7	1	0	0	0
42	1	-	5	-	9				0		1		7	0	28	2	13	25	18	6	1	0	0
41	1	-	4	-	10				0		0		2	0	15	1	7	24	30	16	4	0	0	0
40	1	-	3	-	11						0		0	0	6	0	2	15	32	29	12	2	0	0
39	0	-	5	-	10								0		2	0	1	6	22	35	25	8	1	0
38	0	-	4	-	11								0		0	0	0	2	11	29	36	18	3	0
37	0	-	3	-	12										0		0	0	4	18	37	31	9	0
36	0	-	2	-	13													0	1	9	30	40	20	1
35	0	-	1	-	14														0	3	19	42	32	4
34	0	-	0	-	15										0			0	0	1	9	36	46	8

Total:						14	17	22	29	4	8	1	2	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0