DC United Playoff Chances

Lost to Red Bulls 0-3, playoff odds down 0.002 to 99.995%
44 points   13-5-10

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 8/28100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Average seed
NYCFC 1 Crew 2 -0.1
-0.1
Union 0 Revolution 1 -0.1
Red Bulls 3 DC United 0 -0.3
-4.1
-0.3
Toronto FC 2 Impact 1 -0.1
-0.1
Dynamo 2 Whitecaps 0 +1.5
Earthquakes 1 Galaxy 0 +0.7
Rapids 2 Sporting KC 1 +0.3
FC Dallas 2 Real Salt Lake 0 -0.2
Sounders 2 Timbers 1 +0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 9/5100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Average seed
Impact vs Fire-0.0+0.0+0.1
Revolution vs Orlando-0.2+0.2+0.3
-0.1+0.1+0.1
Earthquakes vs Union-0.1+0.1+0.1
Sounders vs Toronto FC+0.1*-0.0-0.2
+0.1+0.0-0.2
+0.1+0.0-0.2
Crew vs FC Dallas-0.2+0.1+0.2
+0.2+0.1-0.4
-0.1+0.1+0.1
Whitecaps vs Rapids-0.5+0.5+0.9
Timbers vs Sporting KC+0.1+0.1-0.2

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well DC United finishes out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inSupportersChance will finish regular season at seedWooden
TPW-D-LplayoffsShield12345678910SpoonCount
626-0-0In84.5%9190No13,748,557
605-1-0In54.977230No65,627,536
595-0-1In40.5693000No95,236,985
584-2-0In18.9544410No135,076,380
574-1-1In10.74652300No382,493,468
564-0-2In4.23460600No264,907,165
3-3-0In2.32963700No143,634,099
553-2-1In0.721661300No592,920,694
543-1-2In0.1136322100No794,497,352
2-4-0In0.010642410No83,104,737
532-3-1In0.055436400No443,342,007
3-0-3In0.065336500No343,317,248
522-2-2In0.0240461110No859,564,560
1-5-0In0.0240471010No24,836,123
512-1-3In0.0123492430No712,732,399
1-4-1InNo124502330No160,461,270
501-3-2100.0%No0114337800No400,596,533
2-0-4InNo010424080No211,149,190
0-6-0InNo012453680No3,006,956
491-2-3100.0No0429481810No480,578,318
0-5-1100.0No0430471900No22,570,404
481-1-4100.0No0115503220No275,630,011
0-4-2100.0No0115473420No68,226,526
470-3-3100.0No006394960No105,763,180
1-0-5100.0No006424750No60,510,268
460-2-499.9No0227581200No88,439,411
450-1-599.7No0016612200No37,926,245
440-0-698.8No085734100No7,394,538
Total:100.0%2.5%1237281661000No6,877,292,160

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well DC United finishes out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPW-D-LWin CupByeRed BullsCrewToronto FCRevolutionImpactOrlandoFireNYCFCUnion
60-6212.5%Yes
595-0-112.51000
584-2-012.5100000
574-1-112.5100000000000
564-0-212.5100000000000
3-3-012.5100000000000
553-2-112.5100000000000
543-1-212.599000100000
2-4-012.599010000000
532-3-112.396021200000
3-0-312.395011310000
522-2-212.088032510000
1-5-012.189042410000
512-1-311.4730541340000
1-4-111.4740841130000
501-3-210.45411182060000
2-0-410.4521792380000
0-6-010.55711571640000
491-2-39.2331121230100000
0-5-19.134117122780000
481-1-47.8161121637130110
0-4-27.6171171536111100
470-3-36.261151740131110
1-0-56.471101941151110
460-2-45.021111840131110
450-1-53.90171737121110
440-0-63.0014153390110
Total:11.3%77.00.44.24.110.23.10.10.20.10.0
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 8/28100.0*Lottery seed
Red Bulls 3 DC United 0 +0.6
NYCFC 1 Crew 2 +0.2
Toronto FC 2 Impact 1 +0.1
Union 0 Revolution 1 +0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 9/5100.0*Lottery seed
Sounders vs Toronto FC-0.1-0.0+0.3
Crew vs FC Dallas+0.1-0.1-0.2
Revolution vs Orlando+0.1-0.1-0.2

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPW-D-L1234567891011121314151617181920
626-0-0847900
605-1-0552222000
595-0-14029292000
584-2-01935378100
574-1-11135371530000
564-0-2430322761000
3-3-0227273661000
553-2-11201848940000
543-1-2013955121010000
2-4-001055910141000
532-3-10515292831000
3-0-306351122441000
522-2-202039541661000
1-5-00204034446000
512-1-3010232487172100
1-4-110241494192100
501-3-2001104333435000
2-0-400100415354400
0-6-00120452343500
491-2-30040291474140000
0-5-104030146316000
481-1-40101505032911000
0-4-20101504723211000
470-3-30006039148150000
1-0-50006042146140000
460-2-40202705811200000
450-1-50001606102200000
440-0-608057033001000
Total:298295232131500000000