DC United Playoff Chances

Lost to NYCFC 0-4, playoff odds down 16.9 to 42.8%
1 points   0-1-1

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 3/11100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
NYCFC 4 DC United 0 -5.6
-0.7
-1.3
+1.0
-0.4
Minnesota 1 Atlanta 6 -1.1
-0.1
-0.1
Fire 2 Real Salt Lake 0 -0.7
-0.1
-0.0
Red Bulls 1 Rapids 0 -0.6
-0.1
-0.0
Dynamo 3 Crew 1 +0.5
+0.1
-0.1
+0.0
Impact 2 Sounders 2 +0.4
+0.0
Union 2 Toronto FC 2 +0.4
+0.1
+0.1
Galaxy 0 Timbers 1 -0.2
-0.1
Sporting KC 0 FC Dallas 0 +0.1
Earthquakes 3 Whitecaps 2 -0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Revolution vs Orlando-0.2+0.5-0.1
*+0.0+0.0-0.1
+0.0+0.0-0.1
+0.1-0.1-0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 3/18100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
DC United vs Crew+6.5-4.8-10.2
+0.6-0.5-0.9
+0.6-0.5-0.9
-1.9+1.2+3.3
+0.5-0.3-0.8
Whitecaps vs Toronto FC+0.5*+0.0-1.1
+0.0+0.0-0.1
+0.1-0.1-0.1
+0.0+0.0-0.1
FC Dallas vs Revolution+0.4-0.0-1.2
+0.0*+0.0-0.1
-0.1*+0.0+0.1
+0.0-0.0-0.1
Sounders vs Red Bulls+0.4*-0.0-0.7
+0.1*+0.0-0.1
+0.0+0.0-0.1
+0.1-0.1-0.2
+0.0+0.0-0.1
Orlando vs Union-0.1+0.4-0.3
-0.0+0.1*-0.0
-0.0-0.0+0.1
NYCFC vs Impact-0.2+0.4-0.2
-0.0+0.1+0.0
-0.0*-0.0+0.1
Atlanta vs Fire-0.2+0.4*+0.0
-0.0+0.1-0.0
Timbers vs Dynamo-0.0+0.1-0.0
Sporting KC vs Earthquakes*-0.0+0.0-0.1
Rapids vs Minnesota-0.1-0.0+0.3
Real Salt Lake vs Galaxy-0.0-0.0+0.2

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well DC United finishes out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inSupportersChance will finish regular season at seedWooden
TPW-D-LplayoffsShield1234567891011SpoonCount
75-97In100.0%100No39,627*
7423-4-5In99.71000No2,049*
7322-6-4In99.71000No3,644*
7222-5-5In99.61000No6,788*
7121-7-4In99.21000No12,047*
7021-6-5In98.71000No20,641*
6921-5-6In97.9991No35,027*
6820-7-5In96.8991No57,677*
6720-6-6In95.29820No93,035*
6620-5-7In92.69730No147,290*
6519-7-6In89.096400No227,321*
6419-6-7In84.194600No344,177*
6318-8-6In77.891900No511,215*
6218-7-7In69.6871300No740,765*
6118-6-8In59.78217100No1,051,052*
6017-8-7In48.67523200No1,464,247*
5917-7-8In36.867294000No1,997,912*
5816-9-7In25.457357000No2,671,670*
5716-8-8In15.7474111100No3,505,068*
5616-7-9100.0%8.33644173000No4,500,600*
5515-9-8100.03.62644246100No5,669,023*
5415-8-9100.01.3174031112000No6,990,100*
5315-7-10100.00.3103236174000No8,460,976*
5214-9-999.90.1523362581000No10,030,183*
5114-8-1099.50.02143232154000No11,658,817*
5014-7-1198.40.01824342481000No13,283,481*
4913-9-1095.30.003153031164100No14,844,860*
4813-8-1188.5No018223325102000No16,252,664*
4712-10-1076.6No003132931185100No17,434,472*
4612-9-1159.7No001620322711200No18,336,528*
4512-8-1240.8No000211273220610No18,887,477*
4411-10-1123.9No00151832291320No19,076,312*
4311-9-1211.9No000210263422610.0%18,861,429*
4211-8-135.0No00141733311220.018,280,440*
4110-10-121.8No00021027362140.017,341,097*
4010-9-130.5No001519373190.116,101,003*
3910-8-140.1No0002123239150.714,641,697*
389-10-130.0No000162544242.313,025,431*
379-9-140.0No00031844355.911,342,061*
369-8-150.0No000111414612.39,656,632*
358-10-140.0No0007365721.58,039,851*
348-9-150.0No0004296732.96,548,104*
338-8-16OutNo002227645.25,206,745*
327-10-15OutNo001178357.04,045,270*
317-9-16OutNo00128867.73,066,334*
307-8-17OutNo0089276.72,269,644*
296-10-16OutNo0059583.71,634,865*
286-9-17OutNo0039788.91,150,644*
276-8-18OutNo029892.7786,041*
265-10-17OutNo019995.3525,475*
255-9-18OutNo019997.1339,239*
245-8-19OutNo010098.3212,960*
234-10-18OutNo010099.0130,440*
224-9-19OutNo010099.476,644*
214-8-20OutNo010099.643,837*
203-10-19OutNo010099.824,427*
193-9-20OutNo010099.912,930*
183-8-21OutNo010099.96,580*
1-17OutNo100100.043,699*
Total:42.8%1.8%46789910111112135.8%331,770,264

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well DC United finishes out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPW-D-LWin CupByeRed BullsFireOrlandoNYCFCAtlantaToronto FCUnionRevolutionImpactCrew
66-9712.6%Yes
6519-7-612.51000
6419-6-712.51000
6318-8-612.51000000000
6218-7-712.51000000000000
6118-6-812.41000000000000
6017-8-712.41000000000000
5917-7-812.51000000000000
5816-9-712.5990000000000
5716-8-812.5990000000000
17-5-1012.4990000000000
5616-7-912.4970000000000
15-10-712.4970000000000
5515-9-812.2931111111000
16-6-1012.2941111111000
5415-8-911.9881212111111
16-5-1111.9881111111111
14-11-711.9872222211111
5315-7-1011.5793333222111
14-10-811.4783333322221
5214-9-910.5644444443332
15-6-1110.7664444433222
13-12-710.5644444443322
5114-8-109.4495666554443
13-11-89.2476666654443
15-5-129.5505655554333
5014-7-117.9337777765444
13-10-97.7317777765444
15-4-137.9327777765444
4913-9-106.0187777766554
14-6-126.2207777766554
12-12-85.9177777766554
4813-8-114.396666665444
12-11-94.086666665444
14-5-134.496766665444
4713-7-122.745555544343
12-10-102.534555544333
4612-9-111.413333332222
13-6-131.413333333222
4512-8-120.601222211111
4412-7-130.301111111000
4311-9-120.100000000000
4211-8-130.000000000000
4111-7-140.000000000000
4010-9-130.00000000000
3910-8-140.00000000000
389-10-130.00000000000
379-9-14No0000
369-8-15No000
1-35No
Total:3.1%17.11.81.91.91.91.91.71.51.31.31.2
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 3/11100.0*Lottery seed
NYCFC 4 DC United 0 +0.9
Minnesota 1 Atlanta 6 +0.1
Red Bulls 1 Rapids 0 +0.1
Fire 2 Real Salt Lake 0 +0.1
Union 2 Toronto FC 2 -0.1
Impact 2 Sounders 2 -0.0
Dynamo 3 Crew 1 -0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 3/18100.0*Lottery seed
DC United vs Crew-1.0+0.7+1.5
FC Dallas vs Revolution-0.0-0.0+0.1
Whitecaps vs Toronto FC-0.0-0.0+0.1
Sounders vs Red Bulls-0.0-0.0+0.1
NYCFC vs Impact+0.0-0.1+0.0

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPW-D-L12345678910111213141516171819202122
78-97100
7724-4-41000
7623-6-3100
7523-5-41000
7423-4-510000
7322-6-410000
7222-5-510000
7121-7-49910
7021-6-59910
6921-5-69821
6820-7-59721
6720-6-695320
6620-5-7935300
6519-7-68974000
6419-6-784106000
6318-8-678139000
6218-7-7701712000
6118-6-860221701000
6017-8-749272212000
5917-7-8373027240000
5816-9-72532314700000
5716-8-816313381101000
5616-7-9828311316130000
5515-9-84222519222601000
5415-8-9116172326510020000
5315-7-100109242511171400000
5214-9-90532019182238010000
5114-8-1002114102223815140000
5014-7-1101074201816213801000
4913-9-10000311410212281514100
4813-8-1100107319171621392000
4712-10-100003113821221017610000
4612-9-110001062181518221341000
4512-8-1200000201162121231231000
4411-10-110001052161325231231000
4311-9-120000201051727231241000
4211-8-1300010418202823123100
4110-10-1200002021021282311300
4010-9-13000100311232921920
3910-8-1400000141427301861
389-10-1300000016183028132
379-9-140000002102534236
369-8-150000001416333312
358-10-14000029284022
348-9-1500004204233
338-8-160002134045
327-10-1500173557
317-9-1600042868
307-8-1700022177
296-10-160011584
286-9-17001189
276-8-1800793
265-10-1700595
255-9-180397
245-8-190298
234-10-180199
224-9-19199
214-8-200100
203-10-1900100
193-9-200100
183-8-210100
173-7-220100
162-9-210100
1-15100
Total:2333344444555566666666