DC United Playoff Chances

Did not play, playoff odds up 0.1 to 97.6%
21 points   6-3-2

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 5/17100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Average seed
Union 1 DC United 0 -0.6
-0.4
-5.5
-0.2
Orlando 4 Galaxy 0 -0.1
+0.1
Sporting KC 4 Revolution 2 +0.1
+0.3
+0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 5/22100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Average seed
Revolution vs DC United-0.8+0.2+1.5
-0.4+0.1+0.8
-3.7-0.4+7.9
-0.3+0.0+0.5
Timbers vs DC United-0.9-0.0+1.3
-0.4-0.0+0.6
-4.0-1.2+6.7
-0.2-0.0+0.4
Earthquakes vs Orlando+0.1-0.0-0.4
+0.0*+0.0-0.1
-0.3+0.3+0.3
Impact vs FC Dallas-0.2+0.1+0.2
-0.1+0.0+0.1
+0.5+0.2-0.9
Toronto FC vs Timbers-0.1+0.1+0.2
-0.1+0.1+0.1
-0.1+0.1+0.1
-0.0+0.0+0.1
Crew vs Fire+0.0+0.1-0.2
-0.0+0.1+0.0
-0.2+0.2+0.2
Real Salt Lake vs NYCFC+0.1+0.0-0.2
Red Bulls vs Union*-0.0+0.0-0.1
-0.0+0.0+0.1
-0.5+0.6+0.9
-0.0+0.1+0.1
Sounders vs Rapids-1.2+1.1+1.9
Sounders vs Sporting KC-1.1+1.1+1.5
Rapids vs Whitecaps+0.3+0.1-0.6
Galaxy vs Dynamo+0.0+0.0-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well DC United finishes out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inSupportersChance will finish regular season at seedWooden
TPW-D-LplayoffsShield12345678910SpoonCount
81-90In100.0%100No211,042*
8019-2-2In99.91000No8,823*
7918-4-1In99.91000No18,617*
7818-3-2In99.91000No40,092*
7718-2-3In99.91000No79,609*
7617-4-2In99.81000No154,166*
7517-3-3In99.81000No288,669*
7416-5-2In99.61000No514,433*
7316-4-3In99.41000No897,163*
7216-3-4In99.11000No1,507,087*
7115-5-3In98.51000No2,443,475*
7015-4-4In97.610000No3,856,405*
6914-6-3In96.39910No5,888,747*
6814-5-4In94.49910No8,729,611*
6714-4-5In91.79910No12,569,863*
6613-6-4In88.09820No17,553,354*
6513-5-5In83.096400No23,845,011*
6413-4-6In76.595500No31,494,266*
6312-6-5In68.492800No40,387,978*
6212-5-6In58.8881200No50,418,577*
6111-7-5In48.18316100No61,226,829*
6011-6-6In36.97722100No72,273,833*
5911-5-7In26.16928300No83,074,765*
5810-7-6In16.760355000No92,852,203*
5710-6-7In9.450418000No100,979,792*
5610-5-8In4.5404613100No106,857,877*
559-7-7100.0%1.82947203000No109,971,985*
549-6-8100.00.52046286000No110,112,346*
539-5-9100.00.113403511100No107,184,643*
528-7-8100.00.07324018300No101,461,679*
518-6-9100.00.032341266000No93,316,494*
507-8-8100.00.0114373511100No83,397,116*
497-7-999.80.0072940203000No72,398,465*
487-6-1099.4No032040297100No60,984,272*
476-8-998.1No0111343715200No49,876,594*
466-7-1095.0No005254124500No39,538,785*
456-6-1188.6No00215383410100No30,360,952*
445-8-1078.0No0017304019300No22,589,435*
435-7-1163.5No003204129700No16,257,252*
425-6-1246.9No00111353814100.0%11,299,955*
414-8-1131.1No0005264223400.07,589,266*
404-7-1218.3No002164033800.04,918,318*
394-6-139.5No01933411510.23,061,921*
383-8-124.3No00424442430.81,835,861*
373-7-131.7No00215423372.51,054,701*
363-6-140.6No0193642136.1580,008*
352-8-130.2No00428472112.5305,339*
342-7-140.0No00220483021.6152,617*
332-6-150.0No0113464133.172,283*
322-5-16OutNo08405245.332,062*
311-7-15OutNo04336358.313,709*
301-6-16OutNo02267167.85,333*
291-5-17OutNo1198178.32,000*
281-4-18OutNo0128886.2647*
270-6-17OutNo69490.6192*
260-5-18OutNo29897.948*
250-4-19OutNo100Yes11*
210-0-23OutNo010099.9204,784
Total:97.6%15.9%352417117421000.0%1,646,751,360

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well DC United finishes out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPW-D-LWin CupByeRed BullsRevolutionCrewToronto FCOrlandoImpactFireNYCFCUnion
66-9012.5%Yes
6513-5-512.510000
6413-4-612.510000000
6312-6-512.510000000000
6212-5-612.5100000000000
11-8-412.5100000000000
6111-7-512.5100000000000
12-4-712.5100000000000
6011-6-612.5100000000000
12-3-812.5100000000000
5911-5-712.5100000000000
10-8-512.5100000000000
5810-7-612.5100000000000
11-4-812.5100000000000
5710-6-712.599000000000
9-9-512.5100000000000
11-3-912.5100000000000
5610-5-812.599000000000
9-8-612.599000000000
559-7-712.497000100000
10-4-912.497000100000
549-6-812.394111111100
8-9-612.394111111100
539-5-912.188122321100
8-8-712.188122321100
528-7-811.779233432200
9-4-1011.780233432200
518-6-911.167355754310
7-9-711.168355753300
507-8-810.352578975511
8-5-1010.353578975511
497-7-99.23669101297611
8-4-119.33869101287611
487-6-107.9237101113108711
6-9-87.9237101113108711
476-8-96.4127101214108821
466-7-104.9569111297721
456-6-113.425791076611
445-8-102.21356754411
435-7-111.20234532311
425-6-120.60122321100
414-8-110.30011111100
404-7-120.10000100000
394-6-130.0000000000
384-5-140.0000000000
373-7-130.0000000000
363-6-140.000000000
353-5-15No000
342-7-14No0
21-33No
Total:10.9%76.41.72.62.93.52.62.01.80.40.3
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 5/17100.0*Lottery seed
Union 1 DC United 0 +0.5
Sporting KC 4 Revolution 2 -0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 5/22100.0*Lottery seed
Revolution vs DC United+0.5-0.1-1.0
Timbers vs DC United+0.5+0.1-0.8
Red Bulls vs Union+0.1-0.1-0.1
Toronto FC vs Timbers+0.1-0.1-0.1
Crew vs Fire+0.1-0.1-0.1
Earthquakes vs Orlando-0.0-0.0+0.1

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPW-D-L1234567891011121314151617181920
82-90100
8119-3-11000
8019-2-210000
7918-4-110000
7818-3-210000
7718-2-310000
7617-4-210000
7517-3-310000
7416-5-210000
7316-4-39910
7216-3-49910
7115-5-39910
7015-4-4982000
6914-6-3963100
6814-5-4945100
6714-4-5927100
6613-6-48810200
6513-5-583134000
6413-4-676185000
6312-6-5682380000
6212-5-65929110000
6111-7-548351511000
6011-6-637402021000
5911-5-7264324430000
5810-7-61744277500000
5710-6-79412813800000
5610-5-8435252112110000
559-7-72281928173300000
549-6-81201234208500000
539-5-9012634201610110000
528-7-807230152514430000
518-6-903122932179500000
507-8-80101443316191021000
497-7-90007128103014630000
487-6-100030195351415611000
476-8-900101113310271042000
466-7-100005024536121241000
456-6-1100020152361024731000
445-8-100010702953510841000
435-7-110003020239913104100
425-6-1200101113461519113000
414-8-110000502531223219200
404-7-1200201616202919610
394-6-130109031329291430
383-8-12000401622342581
373-7-13002002133134162
363-6-140100162238276
352-8-1300000214343713
342-7-1400017274422
332-6-150003194533
322-5-1601124245
311-7-150063658
301-6-16032968
291-5-17012178
281-4-1811386
270-6-17991
260-5-18298
250-4-19100
210-0-230100
Total:161911147956341211000000