DC United Playoff Chances

Did not play, playoff odds up 0.1 to 99.7%
34 points   10-4-5

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 7/19100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
DC United 3 Chivas USA 1 +0.6
+0.2
+2.6
+0.2
Red Bulls 1 Earthquakes 1 +0.1
+0.0
FC Dallas 2 New England 0 +0.1
+0.0
Fire 1 Union 1 +0.1
Crew 2 Impact 1 -0.1
Dynamo 2 Toronto FC 2 +0.1
+0.0
Sporting KC 2 Galaxy 1 -0.1
-0.1
Real Salt Lake 1 Whitecaps 1 +0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Real Salt Lake vs Impact-0.1+0.1+0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 7/26100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
DC United vs Toronto FC+0.2-0.1-0.5
+0.1-0.1-0.2
+4.3-3.3-5.7
NoNo+0.0
+0.2-0.1-0.3
Sporting KC vs Union+0.0*-0.0-0.1
-0.8+0.8+1.3
-0.1+0.1+0.1
Real Salt Lake vs Red Bulls+0.0*-0.0-0.1
-0.1+0.1+0.1
New England vs Rapids-0.1+0.0+0.1
+0.0*+0.0-0.1
Toronto FC vs Sporting KC+0.7+0.4-1.3
Sounders vs Galaxy-2.5+1.8+2.5
Whitecaps vs FC Dallas*-0.0+0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well DC United finishes out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inSupportersChance will finish regular season at seedWooden
TPW-D-LplayoffsShield12345678910SpoonCount
72-79In98.4%100No32,901*
7112-1-2In95.71000No30,082*
7011-3-1In93.61000No58,179*
6911-2-2In90.91000No104,625*
6810-4-1In86.71000No169,329*
6710-3-2In81.8991No276,680*
6610-2-3In75.49820No421,665*
659-4-2In67.59640No609,185*
649-3-3In58.69460No859,535*
638-5-2In47.39190No592,847
9-2-4In50.190100No545,734*
628-4-3In38.385150No1,456,347*
618-3-4In29.178220No1,161,157
7-6-2In27.079210No634,526*
607-5-3In18.6712910No1,263,152
8-2-5In20.3703000No843,524*
597-4-4In12.1613810No1,690,291
6-7-2In11.6613810No695,840*
587-3-5In7.0504720No1,435,429
6-6-3In6.1514720No1,160,714*
576-5-4In3.0405550No1,712,700
7-2-6In3.3405640No991,564*
566-4-5In1.3306280No1,804,732
5-7-3In1.2306280No909,421*
556-3-6In0.421661200No1,252,780
5-6-4In0.421651400No1,356,253*
545-5-5In0.114662000No1,546,688
6-2-7In0.113662000No860,574*
535-4-6In0.08632810No1,336,199
4-7-4In0.08623010No798,518*
524-6-5100.0%0.045439300No916,679
5-3-7100.00.045637300No893,184*
514-5-6100.00.024547600No1,470,070*
504-4-7100.0No133531210No1,142,588*
493-6-699.9No0225521200No846,643*
483-5-799.7No0135031600No598,100*
473-4-898.6No07404013100No401,343*
462-6-795.6No3274423400No255,437*
452-5-888.5No11539331010No153,303*
442-4-975.3No0728402140No87,280*
431-6-856.5No021638321010No46,258*
421-5-934.9No01728402240No22,800*
411-4-1017.3No02153934100No10,539*
401-3-117.1No1727422120No4,330*
390-5-101.9No02134237600.1%1,621*
380-4-110.2No053445151No518*
370-3-12OutNo121452751.9157*
360-2-13OutNo314393682.836
350-1-14OutNo673333.33
340-0-15OutNo117572618.44,380
Total:99.7%13.2%40411531000000.0%33,466,440

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well DC United finishes out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPW-D-LWin CupByeSporting KCToronto FCNew EnglandRed BullsCrewUnionFireDynamoImpact
61-7912.5%Yes
607-5-312.51000
8-2-512.51000
6-8-112.4Yes
597-4-412.51000000
6-7-212.5100000
8-1-612.5Yes
587-3-512.510000000
6-6-312.510000000
576-5-412.510000000000
7-2-612.5100000000
5-8-212.5100000000
566-4-512.510000000000
5-7-312.61000000000
7-1-712.5100000000
556-3-612.5100000000000
5-6-412.5100000000000
4-9-212.5100000000
545-5-512.5100000000000
6-2-712.6100000000000
4-8-312.5100000000000
535-4-612.499000000000
4-7-412.599000000000
6-1-812.599000000000
524-6-512.497001111000
5-3-712.597001111000
3-9-312.597001111000
514-5-612.394001211100
5-2-812.494001111100
3-8-412.393002211100
504-4-712.188012322100
3-7-512.186013323100
493-6-611.777025544300
4-3-811.777024544300
483-5-711.264037866410
4-2-911.263037866410
2-8-511.060038977410
473-4-810.44704101199610
2-7-610.2450410121010610
462-6-79.2290613141112811
3-3-99.2290613141112821
452-5-87.7160614161313921
442-4-96.070513151212921
431-6-84.22041112910721
421-5-92.51026766510
411-4-101.1014433210
401-3-110.5001211100
390-5-100.10000100
381-1-13No0
34-37No
Total:12.3%95.70.00.30.80.90.70.70.50.10.0
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 7/19100.0*Lottery seed
DC United 3 Chivas USA 1 -0.4
Sporting KC 2 Galaxy 1 +0.1
Dynamo 2 Toronto FC 2 -0.0
FC Dallas 2 New England 0 -0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 7/26100.0*Lottery seed
DC United vs Toronto FC-0.4+0.2+0.7
Sporting KC vs Union+0.1-0.1-0.1
Toronto FC vs Sporting KC+0.0-0.1+0.1

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPW-D-L12345678910111213141516171819
77-79100
7614-0-11000
7513-2-0991
7413-1-1991
7312-3-0982
7212-2-1982
7112-1-29640
7011-3-19460
6911-2-29190
6810-4-187130
6710-3-282171
6610-2-37523200
659-4-26729300
649-3-35935600
638-5-249421000
628-4-338471500
618-3-428502110
607-5-31951272000
597-4-41249345100
587-3-5743399200
6-6-3645379200
576-5-43373916400
7-2-63374016400
566-4-51293725700
5-7-31293626800
556-3-60213136111000
5-6-40202936121000
545-5-50132145174000
6-2-70132145164000
535-4-6081250209100
524-6-504648201830000
5-3-704650201720000
514-5-602243173051000
504-4-711331142841000
493-6-6002255010112000
483-5-70013248823420000
473-4-8007039535661000
462-6-7302724271631000
452-5-8101503952964100
442-4-9070282387106100
431-6-80216037516156100
421-5-90170283152517510
411-4-100201519262815400
401-3-1117031631291230
390-5-100215213527810
380-4-1102113033185
370-3-1214173432112
360-2-133113928173
350-1-14333333
340-0-1506284818
Total:13272120781201000000000