DC United Playoff Chances

Tied Crew 1-1, playoff odds up 1.6 to 48.6%
8 points   2-2-2

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 4/19100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
Crew 1 DC United 1 +0.8
+0.1
-0.3
+0.1
Union 0 Dynamo 0 +0.6
+0.1
Fire 1 New England 1 +0.6
+0.1
FC Dallas 2 Toronto FC 1 +0.4
-0.1
+0.0
Sporting KC 4 Impact 0 -0.3
-0.1
-0.1
Chivas USA 1 Sounders 2 -0.1
-0.2
Real Salt Lake 1 Timbers 0 -0.1
-0.2
Rapids 0 Earthquakes 0 +0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 4/26100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
DC United vs FC Dallas+8.0-3.6-8.5
+0.9-0.4-0.9
+0.7-0.4-0.7
-1.2+0.4+1.5
+0.5-0.2-0.5
Dynamo vs Timbers-0.9+0.7+1.4
-0.1+0.1+0.2
-0.1*+0.0+0.3
-0.0+0.0+0.1
Impact vs Union+0.5+0.4-1.1
+0.1+0.0-0.1
+0.2-0.1-0.2
New England vs Sporting KC-0.8+0.5+0.5
-0.1+0.1+0.0
+0.1+0.0-0.1
+0.1-0.0-0.1
Crew vs Red Bulls+0.1+0.3-0.8
-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.1+0.0+0.1
-0.0+0.0+0.1
Real Salt Lake vs Whitecaps-0.1+0.1+0.1
Sounders vs Rapids-0.0+0.1-0.0
Earthquakes vs Chivas USA+0.0-0.1+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well DC United finishes out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inSupportersChance will finish regular season at seedWooden
TPW-D-LplayoffsShield12345678910SpoonCount
77-92InYes100No116,405*
7621-5-2In99.5%1000No439*
74-75In99.8100No2,804*
7320-5-3In99.71000No3,901*
7220-4-4In99.61000No7,662*
7119-6-3In99.11000No14,445*
7019-5-4In98.510000No26,857*
6919-4-5In97.6991No48,204*
6818-6-4In96.29910No85,253*
6718-5-5In94.39820No146,451*
6617-7-4In91.29730No245,440*
6517-6-5In87.19640No397,970*
6417-5-6In81.594600No633,493*
6316-7-5In74.492800No984,673*
6216-6-6In65.6881100No1,493,640*
6116-5-7In55.3841610No2,209,681*
6015-7-6In44.1782110No3,198,074*
5915-6-7In32.87127200No4,529,366*
5814-8-6In22.46333400No6,262,850*
5714-7-7100.0%13.754397000No8,461,217*
5614-6-8100.07.3444411100No11,186,315*
5513-8-7100.03.3344717200No14,454,385*
5413-7-8100.01.22447244000No18,261,510*
5313-6-9100.00.41644327000No22,556,254*
5212-8-899.90.1103739131000No27,231,132*
5112-7-999.80.052842214000No32,177,126*
5012-6-1099.20.021941308100No37,146,295*
4911-8-997.60.01113437152000No41,923,404*
4811-7-1093.80.0052540246100No46,279,475*
4710-9-986.1No0215363312200No49,917,930*
4610-8-1073.5No0182838215000No52,620,088*
4510-7-1156.7No00317363111200No54,196,744*
449-9-1038.6No0019293720400No54,559,911*
439-8-1122.8No000419363010100.0%53,615,132*
429-7-1211.5No00110303619400.051,449,934*
418-9-114.9No0005203729810.048,211,206*
408-8-121.8No00021232371620.044,053,413*
398-7-130.6No001624402540.139,291,608*
387-9-120.1No000215383590.634,159,712*
377-8-130.0No00193243151.928,945,635*
367-7-140.0No00042447244.923,894,201*
356-9-130.0No000216473510.219,200,444*
346-8-140.0No00110444618.115,003,568*
336-7-150.0No0006385728.311,410,853*
325-9-14OutNo003306739.98,424,973*
315-8-15OutNo01237551.86,041,382*
305-7-16OutNo01178262.94,195,433*
294-9-15OutNo00128872.72,826,101*
284-8-16OutNo0089280.71,841,448*
274-7-17OutNo0059586.81,160,077*
263-9-16OutNo039791.4704,761*
253-8-17OutNo029894.6409,710*
243-7-18OutNo019996.7230,939*
232-9-17OutNo019998.1124,498*
222-8-18OutNo010098.964,370*
212-7-19OutNo010099.431,446*
202-6-20OutNo010099.714,585*
191-8-19OutNo010099.86,408*
181-7-20OutNo0100100.02,616*
8-17OutNo100100.0117,687*
Total:48.6%1.3%581112131212111062.8%886,811,534

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well DC United finishes out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPW-D-LWin CupByeSporting KCCrewToronto FCDynamoUnionNew EnglandFireRed BullsImpact
65-9212.5%Yes
6417-5-612.510000
6316-7-512.51000000
6216-6-612.51000000000
6116-5-712.510000000000
6015-7-612.5100000000000
5915-6-712.5100000000000
5814-8-612.5100000000000
5714-7-712.5100000000000
5614-6-812.599000000000
5513-8-712.498000000000
14-5-912.498000000000
5413-7-812.496001111000
12-10-612.496001111000
5313-6-912.293111111110
12-9-712.292111111110
5212-8-811.985112222220
13-5-1011.986112222220
5112-7-911.476234433331
11-10-711.375234433331
5012-6-1010.663346554441
11-9-810.661446655441
4911-8-99.546568876661
12-5-119.648568766651
10-11-79.445568876661
4811-7-108.2316710988772
10-10-88.0296710988772
12-4-128.2316710988772
4710-9-96.41767101098882
11-6-116.61868101098882
9-12-76.41767101098882
4610-8-104.886710988772
11-5-125.0967101088872
9-11-84.776710988782
4510-7-113.33468877662
9-10-93.23458876662
449-9-101.91346655441
10-6-122.01346655442
439-8-111.10223333331
429-7-120.50112221110
418-9-110.20001111110
408-8-120.10000000000
398-7-130.00000000000
387-9-120.00000000000
377-8-130.0000000000
367-7-140.0000000000
356-9-130.0000000000
346-8-140.000000000
335-10-13No00
8-32No
Total:4.5%23.92.12.63.73.63.23.02.82.80.8
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 4/19100.0*Lottery seed
Crew 1 DC United 1 -0.1
Union 0 Dynamo 0 -0.1
Fire 1 New England 1 -0.1
FC Dallas 2 Toronto FC 1 -0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 4/26100.0*Lottery seed
DC United vs FC Dallas-1.0+0.4+1.0
Dynamo vs Timbers+0.1-0.1-0.1
Impact vs Union-0.0-0.0+0.1

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPW-D-L12345678910111213141516171819
77-92100
7621-5-210000
7521-4-31000
7421-3-41000
7320-5-310000
7220-4-410000
7119-6-39910
7019-5-498100
6919-4-59821
6818-6-496310
6718-5-5944200
6617-7-4916300
6517-6-5879400
6417-5-682136000
6316-7-574178000
6216-6-6662311000
6116-5-75528151100
6015-7-64434201100
5915-6-733382432000
5814-8-622402764000
5714-7-714402910700000
5614-6-873727171011000
5513-8-733123241522000
5413-7-81231631196400000
5313-6-90169352012700000
5212-8-8010433192011210000
5112-7-905127132916530000
5012-6-10020197331812711000
4911-8-90101133215221222000
4811-7-100005124103017751000
4710-9-90020154321716113000
4610-8-1000108126122517820000
4510-7-110003017630191761000
449-9-1000010922616251541000
439-8-11000041181026261330000
429-7-1200010104193023102000
418-9-110000051102531207100
408-8-12000020415292916410
398-7-1300010172032261120
387-9-120000021126332161
377-8-13000015173230132
367-7-1400000292636225
356-9-1300000417353210
346-8-140000210304018
336-7-15000005234428
325-9-140002154340
315-8-1500193852
305-7-1600053263
294-9-150022573
284-8-160011881
274-7-17011387
263-9-1600891
253-8-1700595
243-7-180397
232-9-170298
222-8-18199
212-7-19199
202-6-200100
191-8-190100
181-7-200100
171-6-210100
8-16100
Total:1426383948577776543