DC United Playoff Chances

Did not play, playoff odds down 0.2 to 33%
22 points   5-7-8

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 7/24100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
Red Bulls 4 NYCFC 1 -0.5
Sporting KC 3 Sounders 0 -0.2
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
NYCFC vs Rapids-0.6+0.1+0.6
-0.1+0.0+0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 7/31100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
DC United vs Union+10.8-4.6-10.7
+0.7-0.3-0.7
-3.1+0.9+3.5
+0.6-0.2-0.6
DC United vs Impact+11.4-4.1-10.1
+0.7-0.3-0.6
-3.2+0.6+3.3
+0.6-0.2-0.5
Toronto FC vs Real Salt Lake-1.1+0.8+1.7
-0.1+0.1+0.1
-0.0+0.0+0.1
Orlando vs Revolution-0.3+1.4-1.1
Toronto FC vs Revolution+0.3+0.7-1.7
-0.0+0.1+0.0
-0.1+0.0+0.1
+0.0+0.0-0.1
Union vs Real Salt Lake-0.7+0.5+1.1
-0.1+0.1+0.1
-0.0+0.0+0.1
Real Salt Lake vs Fire+0.4+0.0-1.2
-0.4+0.1+1.2
+0.0-0.0-0.1
Toronto FC vs Crew-0.6+0.9+0.3
-0.1+0.1+0.1
-0.4+0.1+1.0
Impact vs Dynamo-0.5+0.3+0.9
-0.1+0.0+0.1
-0.3+0.1+0.7
Earthquakes vs NYCFC+0.3-0.1-0.7
+0.1-0.0-0.1
+0.0-0.0-0.1
Fire vs Red Bulls-0.4+0.3+0.1
+0.1+0.0-0.1
+0.9-0.2-0.8
-0.1+0.0+0.0
Sounders vs Galaxy+0.8-0.0-0.5
Dynamo vs Earthquakes+0.5-0.3-0.7

What If

Chances based on how well DC United finishes out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inSupportersChance will finish regular season at seedWooden
TPW-D-LplayoffsShield12345678910SpoonCount
6414-0-0In66.3%1000No8,520,994
6213-1-0In43.31000No60,532
6113-0-1In32.210000No98,485
6012-2-0In20.910000No386,069
5912-1-1In13.19910No1,243,453
5811-3-0In6.89820No2,493,360*
5711-2-1In3.295500No7,131,907
5611-1-2In1.291900No15,201,992*
5510-3-1In0.48415100No30,508,885*
5410-2-2In0.17325200No65,012,513*
5310-1-3In0.059356000No116,588,594*
529-3-2100.0%0.04343121000No208,855,788*
519-2-3100.00.02746224000No362,761,661*
508-4-2100.00.014403411100No571,118,174*
498-3-3100.00.062840214000No891,372,589*
488-2-4100.0No215363312100No1,320,873,046*
477-4-399.7No062539245000No1,835,204,397*
467-3-498.5No0212343714100No2,496,877,016*
457-2-594.4No004214128500No1,707,653,358*
6-5-394.2No0042141286000No1,510,124,443
446-4-484.4No0019334114100No3,943,020,180*
436-3-567.4No0003204428500No4,689,013,203*
425-5-446.1No0019374013100.0%2,778,432,226
6-2-646.8No0019374012100.02,509,819,267*
415-4-527.4No0003244624300.03,985,405,879
6-1-726.3No0003234625300.01,711,373,561*
405-3-613.5No001134137800.03,771,802,663
4-6-412.6No001124138800.02,147,625,912*
394-5-55.3No000530471710.13,246,668,481
5-2-75.3No000530471610.02,586,229,682*
384-4-61.8No00219482830.33,794,760,606
3-7-41.7No00218482940.31,694,049,580*
374-3-70.5No00010424081.43,009,092,052
3-6-50.4No0009414181.71,945,835,596*
363-5-60.1No0043149164.92,412,306,847
4-2-80.1No0043149164.51,818,913,151*
353-4-70.0No00120522711.33,436,714,071*
343-3-80.0No00011494021.72,660,724,742*
332-5-70.0No005415435.41,935,651,468*
322-4-80.0No002316750.61,327,742,591*
312-3-90.0No001227865.0859,543,747*
301-5-8OutNo00148677.2515,546,632*
291-4-9OutNo0089286.4286,207,484*
281-3-10OutNo049692.5147,172,491*
271-2-11OutNo029896.367,891,813*
260-4-10OutNo019998.327,566,402*
250-3-11OutNo0010099.49,863,436*
240-2-12OutNo010099.82,870,033
230-1-13OutNo010099.9550,694
220-0-14OutNo0100100.08,564,974
Total:33.0%0.0%1235914192117105.9%68,483,046,720

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well DC United finishes out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPW-D-LWin CupByeRed BullsNYCFCImpactUnionToronto FCRevolutionOrlandoCrewFire
58-6412.5%Yes
5711-2-112.5100000
5611-1-212.510000000000
5510-3-112.5100000000000
5410-2-212.5100000000000
5310-1-312.5100000000000
9-4-112.5100000000000
529-3-212.499000000000
10-0-412.499000000000
8-6-012.499000000000
519-2-312.396111110000
8-5-112.396111110000
508-4-211.988222221100
9-1-411.888222221100
7-7-012.090222221000
498-3-311.074454442100
7-6-111.075444442100
9-0-510.872454552200
488-2-49.553787884300
7-5-29.554787784300
477-4-37.63110121011116410
8-1-57.53010121011115410
6-7-17.63210121010106410
467-3-45.41410131012126511
6-6-25.41411131111127511
8-0-65.31310131012126511
457-2-53.44912911105511
6-5-33.44912910106411
5-8-13.4591299106411
446-4-41.91686774311
7-1-61.91686773311
5-7-21.81686774310
436-3-50.90353442200
5-6-30.80353442100
7-0-70.80343442200
425-5-40.30121221100
6-2-60.30121221100
4-8-20.30121111100
415-4-50.10110100000
6-1-70.10010110000
4-7-30.10010000000
405-3-60.00000000000
4-6-40.00000000000
394-5-50.00000000000
384-4-60.0000000000
374-3-70.0000000000
363-5-60.000000000
353-4-70.000000
343-3-8No0
22-33No
Total:1.3%5.52.02.62.02.32.31.10.90.20.1
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 7/24100.0*Lottery seed
NYCFC vs Rapids+0.1-0.0-0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 7/31100.0*Lottery seed
DC United vs Union-1.2+0.5+1.2
DC United vs Impact-1.2+0.4+1.1
Toronto FC vs Real Salt Lake+0.1-0.1-0.1
Real Salt Lake vs Fire-0.0-0.0+0.1
Sounders vs Galaxy+0.1-0.0-0.1
Union vs Real Salt Lake+0.1-0.0-0.1
Toronto FC vs Revolution-0.0-0.1+0.1
Orlando vs Revolution+0.0-0.1+0.0
Toronto FC vs Crew+0.0-0.1+0.0

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPW-D-L1234567891011121314151617181920
6414-0-0663400
6213-1-0435700
6113-0-13268000
6012-2-02179000
5912-1-11386100
5811-3-07911100
5711-2-139213000
5611-1-2189270000
5510-3-108421400000
5410-2-207312311000
5310-1-30591342400000
529-3-2043043210100000
519-2-30270462213100000
508-4-20140401335610000
498-3-306028039615310000
488-2-420150365287510000
477-4-3060252361015410000
467-3-4020121338299510000
457-2-500040214371215510000
6-5-300040213381118410000
446-4-4001091339329510000
436-3-500003020441111371000
425-5-40001091368191971000
6-2-600010913610201751000
415-4-50000302441829174000
6-1-70000302341829184000
405-3-60001013110293013200
4-6-4000101219283215300
394-5-500000503183528910
5-2-70000504203526810
384-4-6000201928362050
3-7-4000201827362050
374-3-70000003173532121
3-6-5000002153433132
363-5-60000172539245
4-2-80000172638234
353-4-700000215363611
343-3-8000017284322
332-5-700003174535
322-4-8000193951
312-3-9000043165
301-5-80022177
291-4-90011386
281-3-1000793
271-2-1100496
260-4-1000298
250-3-110199
240-2-1200100
230-1-130100
220-0-140100
Total:010203051821235912121196