DC United Playoff Chances

Lost to NYCFC 0-2, playoff odds down 17.5 to 40.2%
10 points   2-4-4

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 5/8100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
DC United 0 NYCFC 2 -12.2
-1.2
-0.4
+3.7
-0.7
Galaxy 4 Revolution 2 +0.6
-0.0
-0.2
+0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
DC United vs Red Bulls+7.4-5.4-11.8
+0.6-0.5-0.9
+0.1-0.1-0.1
-3.6+2.3+6.3
+0.4-0.3-0.7
Crew vs Rapids-1.3+0.5+1.2
-0.1+0.0+0.1
+0.4-0.1-0.4
-0.1+0.0+0.1
Whitecaps vs Fire+0.7+0.0-1.7
+0.0+0.0-0.1
-0.1-0.1+0.2
+0.0-0.0-0.1
Revolution vs Fire-0.0+0.7-0.6
+0.0+0.0-0.1
+0.5-0.4-0.5
Union vs Galaxy-0.5+0.2+0.6
-0.1+0.0+0.1
Toronto FC vs Whitecaps-0.2+0.1+0.4
-0.0+0.0+0.1
-0.1+0.0+0.3
Impact vs Union-0.2+0.3+0.1
Earthquakes vs Dynamo-0.2-0.0+0.4
FC Dallas vs Timbers-0.1-0.0+0.2
FC Dallas vs Sounders-0.0-0.0+0.1
Rapids vs Sporting KC-0.1+0.0+0.2
Dynamo vs Real Salt Lake+0.4-0.2-0.6
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 5/15100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
Union vs DC United-5.3+0.4+13.2
-0.5+0.0+1.2
-0.1-0.0+0.2
+2.2-0.5-5.2
-0.3+0.0+0.8
Fire vs Dynamo-1.0+0.7+1.4
-0.1+0.0+0.1
+0.1-0.2-0.1
-0.1+0.0+0.1
Sporting KC vs Orlando+0.7+0.0-1.5
+0.1+0.0-0.1
+0.0+0.0-0.1
Timbers vs NYCFC+0.7+0.0-1.5
+0.1+0.0-0.1
+0.2-0.1-0.2
+0.0+0.0-0.1
Toronto FC vs Crew+0.5+0.1-1.5
-0.2+0.1+0.5
+0.0+0.0-0.1
Revolution vs FC Dallas-0.9+0.5+1.1
+0.7-0.4-1.0
-0.1+0.0+0.1
Toronto FC vs NYCFC+0.4+0.0-1.2
+0.0+0.0-0.1
-0.1+0.0+0.2
+0.0+0.0-0.1
Orlando vs Impact-0.6+0.6+0.7
-0.0+0.1*-0.0
+0.1-0.1-0.2
Red Bulls vs Fire-0.2+0.8-0.4
+0.1-0.2-0.1
NYCFC vs Red Bulls-0.2+0.7-0.3
-0.0+0.1+0.0
-0.1-0.0+0.4
Sounders vs Rapids+0.1-0.0-0.2
Sporting KC vs Real Salt Lake+0.1-0.1-0.2

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well DC United finishes out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inSupportersChance will finish regular season at seedWooden
TPW-D-LplayoffsShield12345678910SpoonCount
72-82In100.0%100No710,492*
7119-4-1In97.51000No1,278*
7019-3-2In97.11000No3,063*
6919-2-3In95.21000No6,708*
6818-4-2In93.21000No15,296*
6718-3-3In90.2991No32,305*
6617-5-2In85.99910No66,344*
6517-4-3In80.69820No132,864*
6417-3-4In74.09730No257,164*
6316-5-3In66.39550No480,193*
6216-4-4In57.193700No872,651*
6115-6-3In47.0891100No1,536,382*
6015-5-4In36.4841510No2,624,102*
5915-4-5In26.47821100No4,362,197*
5814-6-4In17.47027200No7,033,313*
5714-5-5In10.26134400No11,031,723*
5614-4-6In5.251418000No16,854,609*
5513-6-5In2.2404613100No25,011,656*
5413-5-6100.0%0.73048203000No36,159,157*
5312-7-5100.00.22046285000No50,867,163*
5212-6-6100.00.012413610100No69,648,138*
5112-5-7100.00.073241183000No92,892,303*
5011-7-6100.00.032241277100No120,655,416*
4911-6-799.90.01133635132000No152,578,827*
4811-5-899.50.0062739225000No187,943,116*
4710-7-798.3No02163732112000No225,416,582*
4610-6-895.0No0182837205000No263,278,477*
4510-5-987.9No00318363011100No299,405,837*
449-7-875.6No00192937204000.0%331,471,625*
439-6-958.7No000419363010100.0357,185,212*
429-5-1040.3No00110293719400.0374,580,976*
418-7-924.1No0004203729910.0382,154,234*
408-6-1012.4No00011131371720.1379,194,553*
397-8-95.5No000522402750.8365,878,191*
387-7-102.1No0002143737112.7343,064,734*
377-6-110.7No00173044197.0312,489,464*
366-8-100.2No000321462914.6276,336,425*
356-7-110.0No000113454025.4237,157,826*
346-6-120.0No0008395238.3197,384,269*
335-8-110.0No0004326451.8159,176,744*
325-7-120.0No002257364.2124,264,238*
315-6-130.0No001188174.793,858,243*
304-8-120.0No000128782.968,488,242*
294-7-13OutNo0089289.048,241,765*
284-6-14OutNo0059593.132,758,890*
273-8-13OutNo0039795.921,398,924*
263-7-14OutNo029897.613,425,750*
253-6-15OutNo019998.78,071,547*
243-5-16OutNo019999.34,642,969*
232-7-15OutNo010099.62,547,368*
222-6-16OutNo0010099.81,326,246*
212-5-17OutNo010099.9654,615*
201-7-16OutNo010099.9302,804*
191-6-17OutNo010099.9132,275*
181-5-18OutNo010099.953,383*
10-17OutNo100100.0738,892*
Total:40.2%0.2%136810121415161511.0%5,706,857,760

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well DC United finishes out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPW-D-LWin CupByeToronto FCUnionImpactOrlandoNYCFCCrewFireRed BullsRevolution
63-8212.5%Yes
6216-4-412.41000
6115-6-312.5100000000
6015-5-412.5100000000000
5915-4-512.5100000000000
5814-6-412.5100000000000
5714-5-512.5100000000000
5614-4-612.5100000000000
5513-6-512.599000000000
5413-5-612.497000010000
5312-7-512.294011111100
13-4-712.294011111100
5212-6-612.088122221111
13-3-812.089122221111
5112-5-711.579233342211
11-8-511.579233342211
5011-7-610.766355563322
12-4-810.766355563322
4911-6-79.650477785532
10-9-59.650477785533
12-3-99.650477785532
4811-5-88.2336899106643
10-8-68.1336899106643
12-2-108.2336899106643
4710-7-76.519691010117754
11-4-96.619691010117753
9-10-56.519691010117754
4610-6-84.8969910107654
9-9-64.7959910107654
11-3-104.9959910107654
4510-5-93.34478896553
9-8-73.23477886543
8-11-53.23478896553
449-7-81.91355664432
10-4-102.01355664432
8-10-61.91355664432
439-6-91.00233342221
8-9-71.00233342221
429-5-100.50112221111
8-8-80.40111221111
418-7-90.20011110000
408-6-100.10000000000
398-5-110.00000000000
387-7-100.00000000000
377-6-110.0000000000
367-5-120.0000000000
356-7-110.0000000000
346-6-120.000000000
335-8-11No0000
10-32No
Total:2.3%10.31.52.42.52.72.91.81.71.41.0
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 5/8100.0*Lottery seed
DC United 0 NYCFC 2 +1.5
Galaxy 4 Revolution 2 -0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
DC United vs Red Bulls-0.9+0.7+1.4
Crew vs Rapids+0.1-0.0-0.1
Whitecaps vs Fire-0.0-0.0+0.1
Union vs Galaxy+0.1-0.0-0.1
Revolution vs Fire+0.0-0.1+0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 5/15100.0*Lottery seed
Union vs DC United+0.7-0.0-1.6
Revolution vs FC Dallas+0.1-0.1-0.1
Sporting KC vs Orlando-0.0-0.0+0.1
Fire vs Dynamo+0.1-0.1-0.1
Timbers vs NYCFC-0.0-0.0+0.1
Toronto FC vs Crew-0.0-0.0+0.1
Toronto FC vs NYCFC-0.0-0.0+0.1
Orlando vs Impact+0.0-0.1-0.0
Red Bulls vs Fire+0.0-0.1+0.0
NYCFC vs Red Bulls+0.0-0.1+0.0

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPW-D-L1234567891011121314151617181920
8224-0-01000
74-77100
7320-3-1991
7220-2-2991
7119-4-19720
7019-3-29730
6919-2-39550
6818-4-29360
6718-3-39091
6617-5-28613100
6517-4-38117200
6417-3-47423300
6316-5-36629500
6216-4-457357000
6115-6-34742101000
6015-5-43648142100
5915-4-526521731000
5814-6-4175321720000
5714-5-51051221240000
5614-4-65462120710000
5513-6-523817281121000
5413-5-61291236146200000
5312-7-50207391612500000
5212-6-601233814219210000
5112-5-7071311031126300000
5011-7-6030225361314611000
4911-6-7010131341025103200000
4811-5-800060266331210510000
4710-7-7002016235102283200000
4610-6-80108028632119410000
4510-5-900030182349218310000
449-7-8000109028531109410000
439-6-9000040182349151251000
429-5-10000101002951520144100
418-7-900004019210232413300
408-6-1000001011151729241020
397-8-90000502924322171
387-7-1000002003153031153
377-6-11000100172235267
366-8-10000000313323715
356-7-1100000016254325
346-6-120000003164338
335-8-1100000193852
325-7-120000053164
315-6-13000022375
304-8-12000011683
294-7-130001189
284-6-1400793
273-8-1300496
263-7-1400298
253-6-150199
243-5-160199
232-7-1500100
222-6-1600100
212-5-170100
201-7-160100
191-6-170100
181-5-180100
171-4-190100
160-6-180100
10-15100
Total:010315172821024689101011