DC United Playoff Chances

Tied Fire 1-1, playoff odds up 1.4 to 57.4%
10 points   2-4-3

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 4/24100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
NYCFC 3 Whitecaps 2 -0.9
-0.1
+0.2
-0.0
Red Bulls 4 FC Dallas 0 -0.9
+0.4
-0.1
Sounders 1 Crew 0 +0.7
+0.1
+0.1
+0.0
Revolution 1 Timbers 1 +0.7
+0.1
-0.1
+0.0
Revolution 2 Orlando 2 +0.7
+0.1
-0.1
Fire 1 DC United 1 +0.6
-0.1
-0.3
+0.0
NYCFC 1 Impact 1 +0.6
+0.1
-0.1
Impact 2 Rapids 2 +0.3
+0.1
+0.0
Union 1 Earthquakes 1 +0.3
+0.1
+0.0
Red Bulls 3 Orlando 2 +0.2
+0.1
+0.4
Real Salt Lake 2 Dynamo 1 -0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 5/1100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
Crew vs Impact-0.8+0.6+0.6
-0.0+0.1-0.0
+0.2-0.1-0.2
Orlando vs Red Bulls-0.1+0.6-0.4
-0.1+0.1+0.0
-0.1*-0.0+0.2
Toronto FC vs FC Dallas-0.2+0.2+0.4
-0.1+0.0+0.1
Timbers vs Toronto FC+0.2+0.0-0.3
+0.1+0.0-0.1
+0.0+0.0-0.1
+0.2-0.1-0.2
Sporting KC vs Galaxy+0.0+0.0-0.1
Sounders vs Earthquakes+0.1-0.1-0.2
Dynamo vs Sporting KC+0.3-0.2-0.4
Whitecaps vs Timbers+0.1-0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well DC United finishes out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inSupportersChance will finish regular season at seedWooden
TPW-D-LplayoffsShield12345678910SpoonCount
72-85In100.0%100No228,663*
7119-4-2In98.61000No5,715*
7019-3-3In97.71000No12,210*
6918-5-2In96.21000No24,859*
6818-4-3In94.7991No48,838*
6718-3-4In91.89910No92,938*
6617-5-3In88.29820No172,187*
6517-4-4In83.19730No308,416*
6416-6-3In76.896400No537,008*
6316-5-4In68.79370No906,995*
6216-4-5In59.3901000No1,490,712*
6115-6-4In48.8861400No2,375,860*
6015-5-5In37.68119100No3,690,701*
5915-4-6In26.97425200No5,580,304*
5814-6-5In17.46631300No8,208,925*
5714-5-6In10.05638600No11,758,584*
5613-7-5In4.9464310100No16,411,190*
5513-6-6In2.0364716200No22,298,802*
5413-5-7In0.6264823300No29,539,319*
5312-7-6100.0%0.21744317000No38,094,743*
5212-6-7100.00.0103838131000No47,886,072*
5112-5-8100.00.052942213000No58,687,476*
5011-7-7100.00.021941308100No70,059,753*
4911-6-899.90.01113437152000No81,526,248*
4811-5-999.5No052440246100No92,453,836*
4710-7-898.1No02153633122000No102,157,967*
4610-6-994.4No0172738225000No109,972,991*
459-8-886.7No00317363112200No115,357,565*
449-7-973.7No0018283721500No117,835,695*
439-6-1056.5No000317353111200.0%117,219,247*
428-8-938.2No0019283720400.0113,556,352*
418-7-1022.5No00041836301010.0107,013,748*
408-6-1111.4No00011030371930.198,143,123*
397-8-104.9No000521392970.687,550,856*
387-7-111.8No002123538132.175,915,099*
377-6-120.6No00162744225.863,963,404*
366-8-110.2No000319463312.452,333,863*
356-7-120.0No000112434522.341,552,510*
346-6-130.0No0006365734.632,007,350*
335-8-120.0No003296847.823,894,532*
325-7-130.0No001217760.517,269,478*
315-6-140.0No001158471.612,075,959*
304-8-13OutNo00109080.58,153,917*
294-7-14OutNo0069487.25,314,738*
284-6-15OutNo049691.93,337,203*
273-8-14OutNo029895.12,019,585*
263-7-15OutNo019997.11,171,592*
253-6-16OutNo019998.3650,658*
242-8-15OutNo010099.1345,679*
232-7-16OutNo010099.5175,403*
222-6-17OutNo010099.784,761*
212-5-18OutNo010099.838,296*
201-7-17OutNo010099.916,299*
10-19OutNo100100.0234,336*
Total:57.4%0.6%471012131313121084.6%1,801,762,560

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well DC United finishes out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPW-D-LWin CupByeToronto FCUnionImpactOrlandoNYCFCCrewFireRed BullsRevolution
65-8512.6%Yes
6416-6-312.51000
6316-5-412.5Yes
6216-4-512.51000000
6115-6-412.5100000000000
6015-5-512.5100000000000
5915-4-612.5100000000000
5814-6-512.5100000000000
5714-5-612.5100000000000
5613-7-512.599000000000
5513-6-612.498000000000
5413-5-712.496000100000
12-8-512.497000100000
5312-7-612.293111111111
13-4-812.293111111111
5212-6-711.986122321211
11-9-511.986122221111
5112-5-811.476233432322
11-8-611.476233432222
5011-7-710.662355644433
12-4-910.662355644433
10-10-510.763355644433
4911-6-89.546577965544
10-9-69.546577955544
12-3-109.646577955544
4811-5-98.1306891177755
10-8-78.1296891077755
9-11-58.2306891077655
4710-7-86.51669101177766
11-4-106.51769101187765
9-10-66.51769101177766
4610-6-94.886891177765
9-9-74.776891077765
11-3-114.886891177765
459-8-83.13467866554
10-5-103.23477966554
449-7-91.91345644433
10-4-111.91345644433
439-6-101.00233422222
8-9-81.00223322222
428-8-90.40111211111
418-7-100.20001100000
408-6-110.10000000000
397-8-100.00000000000
387-7-110.0000000000
377-6-120.0000000000
366-8-110.0000000000
356-7-120.0000000000
346-6-13No0000000
10-33No
Total:4.0%20.02.13.13.44.02.72.62.52.12.0
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 4/24100.0*Lottery seed
Red Bulls 4 FC Dallas 0 +0.1
Revolution 2 Orlando 2 -0.1
Revolution 1 Timbers 1 -0.1
NYCFC 3 Whitecaps 2 +0.1
NYCFC 1 Impact 1 -0.1
Union 1 Earthquakes 1 -0.0
Impact 2 Rapids 2 -0.0
Sounders 1 Crew 0 -0.0
Fire 1 DC United 1 -0.0
Red Bulls 3 Orlando 2 -0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 5/1100.0*Lottery seed
Toronto FC vs FC Dallas+0.0-0.0-0.1
Orlando vs Red Bulls+0.0-0.1+0.0
Crew vs Impact+0.0-0.1+0.0

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPW-D-L1234567891011121314151617181920
76-85100
7521-2-2991
7420-4-11000
7320-3-2991
7220-2-3991
7119-4-29910
7019-3-39820
6918-5-29630
6818-4-39551
6718-3-4927100
6617-5-38810200
6517-4-48314300
6416-6-377194000
6316-5-46925600
6216-4-559319000
6115-6-44937131000
6015-5-538431721000
5915-4-627472142000
5814-6-5174823830000
5714-5-61046241360000
5613-7-55412221911000
5513-6-6234173013320000
5413-5-7125113616830000
5312-7-601763916156100000
5212-6-70102361325103100000
5112-5-805128834138300000
5011-7-7020193371217611000
4911-6-80101113392810520000
4811-5-90050244361113511000
4710-7-80020151359249420000
4610-6-901070274341111510000
459-8-800030171349228410000
449-7-9000108027532111041000
439-6-100000301723410161241000
428-8-900010902861721134100
418-7-1000004018312252411300
408-6-110000101016202922920
397-8-1000005021126311851
387-7-110002015183129132
377-6-12000100292535236
366-8-11000000416343412
356-7-1200000018274122
346-6-13000004194335
335-8-1200001113948
325-7-13000063360
315-6-14000032572
304-8-130011880
294-7-140011287
284-6-1500892
273-8-1400595
263-7-150397
253-6-160298
242-8-150199
232-7-16199
222-6-170100
212-5-180100
201-7-170100
191-6-180100
181-5-190100
171-4-200100
10-16100
Total:13162821021031034677665