DC United Playoff Chances

Tied Toronto FC 4-4, playoff odds up 3.4 to 25.2%

10 points 2-4-6

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 6/23	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Win MLS Cup	100.0*	Wooden Spoon	100.0*	Average seed
Seattle vs Chicago	+1.0+0.3-1.8				+0.2-0.1-0.3		+0.1+0.0-0.1
Philadelphia vs Vancouver	-1.0+0.7+1.3				+0.0-0.0-0.1		-0.1+0.0+0.1
NYCFC vs Toronto FC	+0.5*+0.0-1.6				-0.0+0.0+0.1		+0.0-0.0-0.1
Orlando vs Montreal	-0.8+1.0+1.0				-0.1+0.0+0.2
LAFC vs Columbus	+0.4-0.0-0.7		+0.0*+0.0-0.1
NY Red Bulls vs FC Dallas	-0.1+0.0+0.1
Minnesota vs FC Dallas					+0.1-0.0-0.1
Colorado vs Minnesota					+0.4-0.3-0.5
RSL vs San Jose					-0.2-0.0+0.4

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well DC United finishes out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Supporters		Chance will finish regular season at seed												Wooden
TP		W	-	D	-	L	playoffs		Shield		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	Spoon		Count

76		22	-	0	-	0	In		99.8	%	100	0											No		791,325
73	-74						In		Yes		100												No		34	*
72		20	-	2	-	0	In		96.4		99	1											No		83
71		20	-	1	-	1	In		92.6		96	4											No		310
70		19	-	3	-	0	In		91.5		97	3											No		765	*
69		19	-	2	-	1	In		86.3		94	6	0										No		2,578
68		19	-	1	-	2	In		77.6		89	10	0										No		6,056	*
67		18	-	3	-	1	In		69.2		84	15	0										No		14,749	*
66		18	-	2	-	2	In		58.7		78	21	1	0									No		35,729	*
65		17	-	4	-	1	In		45.6		69	29	2	0									No		76,410	*
64		17	-	3	-	2	In		33.7		59	36	5	0									No		164,241	*
63		17	-	2	-	3	In		22.1		48	43	9	0	0								No		336,748	*
62		16	-	4	-	2	In		12.9		36	48	14	1	0								No		648,367	*
61		16	-	3	-	3	In		6.7		26	50	22	2	0								No		1,234,922	*
60		16	-	2	-	4	In		2.9		17	47	31	5	0	0							No		2,236,967	*
59		15	-	4	-	3	In		1.0		10	41	39	10	0	0							No		3,897,612	*
58		15	-	3	-	4	In		0.3		6	32	44	16	1	0							No		6,640,904	*
57		14	-	5	-	3	100.0	%	0.1		3	23	46	25	3	0	0						No		10,850,745	*
56		14	-	4	-	4	100.0		0.0		1	14	43	35	7	0	0						No		17,178,886	*
55		14	-	3	-	5	100.0		0.0		0	8	36	43	12	1	0						No		26,470,612	*
54		13	-	5	-	4	100.0		0.0		0	4	27	47	20	2	0	0					No		39,335,276	*
53		13	-	4	-	5	99.9		0.0		0	2	17	46	30	5	0	0					No		56,834,883	*
52		13	-	3	-	6	99.7		No		0	1	10	41	38	10	0	0	0				No		79,766,418	*
51		12	-	5	-	5	99.1		No		0	0	5	32	44	17	1	0	0				No		108,400,256	*
50		12	-	4	-	6	97.5		No		0	0	2	22	46	27	2	0	0	0			No		143,424,642	*
49		11	-	6	-	5	94.1		No		0	0	1	14	43	37	6	0	0	0			No		184,316,672	*
48		11	-	5	-	6	87.9		No			0	0	8	35	45	11	1	0	0			No		229,911,159	*
47		11	-	4	-	7	78.3		No			0	0	4	25	49	19	2	0	0	0		No		279,172,090	*
46		10	-	6	-	6	65.3		No			0	0	1	16	48	28	6	0	0	0		No		329,394,555	*
45		10	-	5	-	7	50.1		No				0	0	9	41	37	12	1	0	0		No		377,698,466	*
44		10	-	4	-	8	34.9		No				0	0	4	31	41	20	4	0	0		No		421,549,709	*
43		9	-	6	-	7	21.7		No				0	0	2	20	40	29	8	1	0		No		457,161,217	*
42		9	-	5	-	8	11.9		No				0	0	1	11	34	36	15	2	0		No		482,070,830	*
41		9	-	4	-	9	5.7		No					0	0	6	25	39	24	6	0		0.0	%	494,487,963	*
40		8	-	6	-	8	2.3		No					0	0	2	16	36	33	12	1		0.0		492,807,782	*
39		8	-	5	-	9	0.8		No					0	0	1	9	29	39	20	3		0.0		477,440,313	*
38		7	-	7	-	8	0.2		No					0	0	0	4	20	40	30	6		0.0		449,508,385	*
37		7	-	6	-	9	0.1		No						0	0	2	12	35	40	12		0.1		410,977,241	*
36		7	-	5	-	10	0.0		No						0	0	0	6	27	46	20		0.4		364,893,847	*
35		6	-	7	-	9	0.0		No							0	0	3	19	48	31		1.3		314,567,235	*
34		6	-	6	-	10	0.0		No							0	0	1	11	44	43		3.6		262,951,099	*
33		6	-	5	-	11	0.0		No							0	0	0	6	38	56		8.1		213,119,794	*
32		5	-	7	-	10	0.0		No							0	0	0	3	30	67		15.4		167,406,938	*
31		5	-	6	-	11	Out		No								0	0	1	22	77		25.4		127,233,516	*
30		5	-	5	-	12	Out		No								0	0	0	15	85		37.3		93,561,301	*
29		4	-	7	-	11	Out		No									0	0	9	91		49.9		66,473,676	*
28		4	-	6	-	12	Out		No									0	0	6	94		61.9		45,583,694	*
27		4	-	5	-	13	Out		No									0	0	3	97		72.3		30,112,862	*
26		3	-	7	-	12	Out		No										0	2	98		80.8		19,156,843	*
25		3	-	6	-	13	Out		No										0	1	99		87.3		11,693,609	*
24		3	-	5	-	14	Out		No										0	0	100		92.0		6,842,899	*
23		3	-	4	-	15	Out		No											0	100		95.1		3,831,073	*
22		2	-	6	-	14	Out		No											0	100		97.2		2,044,629	*
21		2	-	5	-	15	Out		No											0	100		98.5		1,031,959	*
20		2	-	4	-	16	Out		No											0	100		99.2		496,024	*
19		1	-	6	-	15	Out		No											0	100		99.6		223,450	*
18		1	-	5	-	16	Out		No											0	100		99.8		93,941	*
10	-17						Out		No												100		100.0		846,661	*

Total:							25.2	%	0.0	%	0	0	1	3	7	14	15	16	16	15	13		3.4	%	7,317,010,950

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well DC United finishes out the regular season. Explain


If finish:									Chance will play in first round
TP		W	-	D	-	L	Win Cup		Bye	Atlanta	NYCFC	NY Red Bulls	Columbus	New England	Orlando	Chicago	Philadelphia	Toronto FC	Montreal

67	-76						12.5	%	Yes
66		18	-	2	-	2	12.2		100				0					0
65		17	-	4	-	1	12.5		100			0	0	0	0		0
64		17	-	3	-	2	12.6		100	0	0	0	0	0	0		0	0
63		17	-	2	-	3	12.4		100	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
62		16	-	4	-	2	12.4		99	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
61		16	-	3	-	3	12.4		98	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
60		16	-	2	-	4	12.2		95	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	0	0	0
59		15	-	4	-	3	11.9		90	0	1	1	4	3	0	0	0	0	0
58		15	-	3	-	4	11.4		82	1	2	2	7	4	0	0	0	0	0
57		14	-	5	-	3	10.8		71	1	3	4	11	7	1	0	1	0	0
56		14	-	4	-	4	9.9		58	2	5	6	15	10	1	1	1	1	0
55		14	-	3	-	5	8.8		44	2	7	8	20	14	2	1	1	1	0
		13	-	6	-	3	8.8		44	2	7	8	20	13	2	1	1	1	0
54		13	-	5	-	4	7.7		31	3	8	10	23	16	2	1	2	1	0
		14	-	2	-	6	7.6		30	3	8	10	24	17	2	1	2	1	0
53		13	-	4	-	5	6.5		19	3	9	11	26	18	2	2	2	1	0
		12	-	7	-	3	6.4		19	3	10	11	26	18	3	2	2	1	0
52		13	-	3	-	6	5.3		11	3	10	11	27	20	3	2	2	1	0
		12	-	6	-	4	5.3		11	3	10	12	27	19	3	2	2	2	0
51		12	-	5	-	5	4.2		5	3	9	11	26	18	3	2	2	2	0
		13	-	2	-	7	4.2		5	3	9	10	27	19	3	2	2	2	0
		11	-	8	-	3	4.1		5	3	10	12	26	17	3	2	2	2	0
50		12	-	4	-	6	3.3		2	2	8	10	24	17	3	2	2	1	0
		11	-	7	-	4	3.2		2	2	8	10	23	16	3	2	2	1	0
		13	-	1	-	8	3.2		2	2	8	9	24	17	3	2	2	1	0
49		11	-	6	-	5	2.3		1	2	7	8	20	13	2	2	2	1	0
		12	-	3	-	7	2.4		1	2	6	8	20	14	2	2	2	1	0
		10	-	9	-	3	2.2		1	2	6	8	19	13	2	2	2	1	0
48		11	-	5	-	6	1.6		0	1	5	6	16	10	2	1	1	1	0
		12	-	2	-	8	1.7		0	1	5	5	16	11	2	1	1	1	0
		10	-	8	-	4	1.5		0	1	5	6	15	9	2	1	1	1	0
47		11	-	4	-	7	1.0		0	1	3	4	11	7	1	1	1	1	0
		10	-	7	-	5	1.0		0	1	3	4	11	7	1	1	1	1	0
		12	-	1	-	9	1.0		0	1	3	4	11	7	1	1	1	1	0
46		10	-	6	-	6	0.6		0	0	2	2	7	4	1	0	0	0	0
		11	-	3	-	8	0.6		0	0	2	2	7	4	1	1	0	0	0
45		10	-	5	-	7	0.3		0	0	1	1	4	2	0	0	0	0	0
		9	-	8	-	5	0.3		0	0	1	1	4	2	0	0	0	0	0
44		10	-	4	-	8	0.1		0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	0	0	0
		9	-	7	-	6	0.1		0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	0	0
43		9	-	6	-	7	0.0		0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
42		9	-	5	-	8	0.0		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
41		9	-	4	-	9	0.0			0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
40		8	-	6	-	8	0.0			0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
39		8	-	5	-	9	0.0			0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
38		8	-	4	-	10	0.0			0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
37		7	-	6	-	9	0.0				0	0	0	0
36		7	-	5	-	10	No						0	0
10	-35						No

Total:							0.6	%	1.2	0.3	1.2	1.4	3.7	2.5	0.4	0.3	0.3	0.2	0.0

Points (Full Screen)

Chance Will Make Playoffs (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 6/23	100.0*	Lottery seed
NYCFC vs Toronto FC	-0.0-0.0+0.1
Minnesota vs FC Dallas	+0.1-0.0-0.1
Philadelphia vs Vancouver	+0.1-0.1-0.1
Seattle vs Chicago	-0.0-0.0+0.1
Orlando vs Montreal	+0.0-0.1-0.0
LAFC vs Columbus	-0.0-0.0+0.1

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W	-	D	-	L	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23

76		22	-	0	-	0	100	0	0
73	-74						100
72		20	-	2	-	0	96	2	1
71		20	-	1	-	1	93	4	4
70		19	-	3	-	0	92	5	3
69		19	-	2	-	1	86	7	6	0	0
68		19	-	1	-	2	78	12	10	0	0
67		18	-	3	-	1	69	15	15	0	0
66		18	-	2	-	2	59	19	21	0	1		0
65		17	-	4	-	1	46	23	28	1	2	0	0
64		17	-	3	-	2	34	25	35	2	5	0	0
63		17	-	2	-	3	22	26	40	4	8	0	0		0
62		16	-	4	-	2	13	24	41	7	14	0	1	0	0
61		16	-	3	-	3	7	20	38	12	21	0	2	0	0
60		16	-	2	-	4	3	14	31	16	29	1	5	0	0		0
59		15	-	4	-	3	1	9	21	20	35	4	10	0	0	0	0
58		15	-	3	-	4	0	5	12	20	36	8	16	0	1	0	0
57		14	-	5	-	3	0	3	6	17	32	13	24	1	3	0	0		0
56		14	-	4	-	4	0	1	2	12	24	19	32	3	7	0	0	0	0
55		14	-	3	-	5	0	0	1	8	14	21	35	7	12	0	1	0	0
54		13	-	5	-	4	0	0	0	4	7	20	33	14	19	1	2	0	0	0
53		13	-	4	-	5	0	0	0	2	2	15	25	21	27	3	5	0	0	0
52		13	-	3	-	6		0	0	1	1	10	15	26	31	8	10	0	0	0	0
51		12	-	5	-	5		0	0	0	0	5	7	25	29	16	16	1	1	0	0
50		12	-	4	-	6		0	0	0	0	2	2	20	22	25	23	4	2	0	0	0
49		11	-	6	-	5		0		0	0	1	1	13	13	30	27	10	5	0	0	0	0
48		11	-	5	-	6				0	0	0	0	7	5	30	25	20	10	2	0	0	0	0
47		11	-	4	-	7				0	0	0	0	4	2	24	18	31	15	5	1	0	0	0	0
46		10	-	6	-	6				0		0	0	1	0	16	10	37	18	12	4	1	0	0	0
45		10	-	5	-	7						0	0	0	0	9	4	37	17	19	11	3	0	0	0	0
44		10	-	4	-	8						0	0	0	0	4	1	29	11	23	20	9	2	0	0	0	0
43		9	-	6	-	7						0		0	0	2	0	20	6	19	28	18	6	1	0	0	0	0
42		9	-	5	-	8						0		0	0	1	0	11	2	12	26	28	15	4	1	0	0	0
41		9	-	4	-	9								0	0	0	0	6	1	5	18	30	25	12	3	0	0	0	0
40		8	-	6	-	8								0		0	0	2	0	2	9	23	31	22	9	2	0	0	0
39		8	-	5	-	9								0		0	0	1	0	0	3	13	27	30	18	6	1	0	0
38		7	-	7	-	8								0		0		0	0	0	1	5	17	30	28	14	3	0	0
37		7	-	6	-	9										0		0	0	0	0	2	8	22	32	24	9	1	0
36		7	-	5	-	10										0		0	0	0	0	0	3	13	28	32	18	5	0
35		6	-	7	-	9												0		0	0	0	1	6	19	34	29	11	1
34		6	-	6	-	10												0		0	0	0	0	2	10	28	36	20	4
33		6	-	5	-	11												0			0	0	0	1	5	19	37	31	8
32		5	-	7	-	10												0				0	0	0	2	11	32	40	15
31		5	-	6	-	11															0	0	0	0	0	5	24	45	25
30		5	-	5	-	12																	0	0	0	2	16	45	37
29		4	-	7	-	11																	0	0	0	1	9	40	50
28		4	-	6	-	12																		0	0	0	5	33	62
27		4	-	5	-	13																			0	0	2	25	72
26		3	-	7	-	12																			0	0	1	18	81
25		3	-	6	-	13																				0	0	12	87
24		3	-	5	-	14																			0	0	0	8	92
23		3	-	4	-	15																				0	0	5	95
22		2	-	6	-	14																					0	3	97
21		2	-	5	-	15																					0	2	98
20		2	-	4	-	16																					0	1	99
19		1	-	6	-	15																						0	100
18		1	-	5	-	16																						0	100
17		1	-	4	-	17																						0	100
16		1	-	3	-	18																						0	100
15		0	-	5	-	17																						0	100
10	-14																												100

Total:							0	0	0	0	0	1	1	2	2	5	4	10	4	6	8	9	9	9	8	8	7	5	3