Houston Dynamo Playoff Chances

Did not play, playoff odds down 0.5 to 87.3%
13 points   4-1-1

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 4/20100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
Columbus 1 Portland 3 -0.6
+0.1
Atlanta 1 FC Dallas 2 -0.5
-0.2
-0.1
-0.1
Orlando 1 Vancouver 0 +0.3
Chicago 4 Colorado 1 +0.2
San Jose 4 Sporting KC 1 +0.2
+0.1
+0.1
+0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Minnesota vs LA Galaxy-0.4+0.3+0.5
-0.0+0.1-0.0
+0.2+0.1-0.4
Seattle vs San Jose+0.2+0.1-0.6
-0.1+0.1+0.2
-0.2+0.2+0.4
LAFC vs Seattle+0.0*+0.0-0.1
+0.0+0.0-0.1
-0.2+0.4+0.1
Columbus vs DC United+0.1+0.1-0.2
DC United vs NYCFC-0.1+0.1+0.2
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 4/27100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
Houston vs Columbus+3.2-2.6-5.7
+0.7-0.6-1.2
+1.4-1.4-2.2
-0.0+0.0+0.1
+0.3-0.3-0.6
LA Galaxy vs RSL+0.3*+0.0-1.1
-0.1+0.1+0.1
-0.2+0.2+0.4
Sporting KC vs New England-0.5+0.5+0.9
-0.1+0.1+0.1
-0.0+0.0+0.1
Toronto FC vs Portland+0.3-0.0-0.9
-0.1+0.1+0.2
Minnesota vs DC United-0.5+0.3+0.7
-0.1+0.1+0.2
+0.1+0.1-0.2
-0.1+0.0+0.1
Vancouver vs Philadelphia-0.4+0.2+0.3
+0.1+0.0-0.1
FC Dallas vs San Jose+0.1+0.1-0.4
-0.1+0.1+0.2
-0.1+0.1+0.2
Colorado vs Vancouver+0.1+0.1-0.4
Atlanta vs Colorado+0.1+0.0-0.3
Seattle vs LAFC-0.1+0.0+0.1
-0.1+0.1+0.1
+0.1+0.3-0.5
Philadelphia vs Cincinnati-0.1+0.1+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well Houston finishes out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inSupportersChance will finish regular season at seedWooden
TPW-D-LplayoffsShield123456789101112SpoonCount
82-97In100.0%100No62,245*
8121-5-2In99.91000No4,548*
8021-4-3In99.81000No8,600*
7921-3-4In99.81000No16,349*
7820-5-3In99.61000No28,750*
7720-4-4In99.4991No51,704*
7620-3-5In99.09910No88,027*
7519-5-4In98.49910No148,730*
7419-4-5In97.49820No243,117*
7318-6-4In95.99640No388,338*
7218-5-5In93.994600No603,754*
7118-4-6In90.992800No914,772*
7017-6-5In86.9881100No1,350,877*
6917-5-6In81.7841610No1,952,290*
6817-4-7In75.17821100No2,753,557*
6716-6-6In67.07127200No3,796,490*
6616-5-7In57.76333400No5,124,799*
6515-7-6In47.55439700No6,756,730*
6415-6-7In37.1444411100No8,704,224*
6315-5-8In27.0354617200No10,972,533*
6214-7-7In18.1264723400No13,541,245*
6114-6-8In11.01844307100No16,328,468*
6014-5-9In6.012393612100No19,274,247*
5913-7-8In2.87314019300No22,256,755*
5813-6-9100.0%1.142341266000No25,141,806*
5712-8-8100.00.4216383311100No27,812,491*
5612-7-9100.00.1193238173000No30,104,154*
5512-6-10100.00.0052440255000No31,857,869*
5411-8-9100.00.00216373310100No33,000,258*
5311-7-1099.90.00193139173000No33,446,687*
5211-6-1199.6No0052341256000No33,138,582*
5110-8-1098.9No00215383310100No32,133,533*
5010-7-1197.2No0019313918300No30,475,357*
4910-6-1293.8No00042341266000No28,242,972*
489-8-1187.8No00215373411100No25,605,707*
479-7-1278.7No00183039183000No22,674,852*
469-6-1366.6No0042240276100No19,622,387*
458-8-1252.5No00214373412100No16,595,093*
448-7-1338.1No0018303919400No13,693,462*
438-6-1425.3No0004214027710No11,031,168*
427-8-1315.2No0021336341320No8,673,450*
417-7-148.2No0018293920400.0%6,645,427*
407-6-154.0No004213928810.04,961,230*
396-8-141.7No0021335351310.03,609,054*
386-7-150.6No001828402130.12,556,390*
376-6-160.2No00421412960.51,761,853*
365-8-150.1No002143837101.61,180,914*
355-7-160.0No0183243164.3768,576*
345-6-170.0No0052546249.2484,940*
334-8-16OutNo0218473316.6296,492*
324-7-170.0No00112444326.5175,569*
314-6-18OutNo007405337.899,911*
303-8-17OutNo004346249.655,370*
293-7-18OutNo002277161.129,261*
283-6-19OutNo01217870.714,974*
272-8-18OutNo1158579.97,342*
262-7-19OutNo0128884.63,431*
252-6-20OutNo099188.81,535*
242-5-21OutNo69492.6639*
231-7-20OutNo49696.4249*
221-6-21OutNo29897.685*
17-21OutNo100Yes53*
130-0-28OutNo0100100.058,176
Total:87.3%5.1%7111416161411742100.1%561,332,448

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well Houston finishes out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPW-D-LWin CupByeLAFCSeattleLA GalaxyFC DallasMinnesotaSporting KCRSLPortlandSan JoseVancouverColorado
73-9712.5%Yes
7218-5-512.51000
7118-4-612.5100000
7017-6-512.5100000000
6917-5-612.5100000000000
6817-4-712.510000000000000
6716-6-612.510000000000000
6616-5-712.510000000000000
6515-7-612.510000000000000
6415-6-712.49900000000000
6315-5-812.49800010000000
6214-7-712.39601111000000
15-4-912.39601111000000
6114-6-812.29211121100000
13-9-612.29211121100000
6014-5-911.98712232110000
13-8-711.98612232210000
5913-7-811.57823353210000
14-4-1011.57923353210000
5813-6-910.96835575420000
12-9-710.96735575420000
5712-8-810.154477107531100
13-5-1010.256477107521000
5612-7-99.141599129631100
13-4-119.344589128631100
11-10-79.140699139731100
5512-6-108.130610101410841100
11-9-88.028610101410841100
5411-8-96.718711111511841110
12-5-116.919611111511841110
5311-7-105.410611111511851110
12-4-125.510611111511851110
5211-6-114.35510101410841110
10-9-94.1559101310841110
5110-8-103.02488118631110
11-5-123.12489118641110
5010-7-112.0136696531100
4910-6-121.3024464321100
489-8-110.7012342210000
479-7-120.4011221110000
469-6-130.2001111000000
458-8-120.1000000000000
448-7-130.0000000000000
438-6-140.0000000000000
427-8-130.000000000000
417-7-140.000000000000
407-6-150.0000000000
396-8-14No00000
385-10-13No0
13-37No
Total:5.8%30.72.94.85.17.04.93.72.00.60.50.30.1
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 4/20100.0*Lottery seed
Atlanta 1 FC Dallas 2 +0.1
San Jose 4 Sporting KC 1 -0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Seattle vs San Jose+0.1-0.1-0.1
Minnesota vs LA Galaxy+0.0-0.1+0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 4/27100.0*Lottery seed
Houston vs Columbus-0.7+0.6+1.2
Minnesota vs DC United+0.1-0.1-0.1
Sporting KC vs New England+0.1-0.1-0.1
FC Dallas vs San Jose+0.1-0.1-0.1
LA Galaxy vs RSL+0.0-0.1-0.0
Seattle vs LAFC+0.0-0.1-0.0
Toronto FC vs Portland-0.0-0.0+0.1

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPW-D-L123456789101112131415161718192021222324
86-97100
8523-3-21000
82-84100
8121-5-210000
8021-4-310000
7921-3-410000
7820-5-310000
7720-4-49901
7620-3-599010
7519-5-498010
7419-4-597020
7318-6-496040
7218-5-5941600
7118-4-6911800
7017-6-587111000
6917-5-682216010
6817-4-7753210100
6716-6-6674270200
6616-5-7585330400
6515-7-64863907000
6415-6-7377430110100
6315-5-8278461170200
6214-7-71884612304000
6114-6-811742230070100
6014-5-966363360120100
5913-7-834274400180300
5813-6-91318540126060000
5712-8-801105362330110100
5612-7-9015428338017030000
5512-6-10002319539125050000
5411-8-90012115352330100100
5311-7-1000015527438117030000
5211-6-110002317639225060000
5110-8-100000287335330100100
5010-7-110000136238372180300
4910-6-12000001413103652606000
489-8-1100002510281032211100
479-7-1200001171614345183000
469-6-130000471529122571000
458-8-12000022121818291530000
448-7-1300010792126231020000
438-6-14000004318182719820000
427-8-130002113923261872000
417-7-1400010741425261661000
407-6-15000416172726145100
396-8-14000202820292412300
386-7-1500100311233022920
376-6-160000151528301751
365-8-150000017203227112
355-7-1600003122734204
345-6-17000161935309
334-8-16000211313817
324-7-1700016244327
314-6-18003164338
303-8-1701103950
293-7-180053361
283-6-19032671
272-8-18011980
262-7-1911585
252-6-2001189
242-5-210793
231-7-20496
221-6-21298
17-21100
130-0-280100
Total:5191122142142123825321110000