New England Revolution Playoff Chances

Lost to NYCFC 1-2, playoff odds down 3.2 to 7.3%
29 points   8-5-11

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 8/19100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
NYCFC 2 New England 1 -3.2
-0.1
+0.0
-0.2
Montreal 3 Real Salt Lake 1 -1.2
-0.1
Orlando 1 Columbus 1 +0.6
Portland 2 NY Red Bulls 0 +0.3
San Jose 2 Philadelphia 2 +0.2
+0.0
Chicago 1 Toronto FC 3 +0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Columbus vs Los Angeles-1.2+1.0+1.8
-0.1+0.0+0.1
DC United vs Atlanta+0.4+0.1-0.3
+0.1-0.0-0.0
Toronto FC vs Philadelphia+0.1*+0.0-0.5
+0.0-0.0-0.2
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 8/25100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
DC United vs New England-3.8-2.1+4.7
-0.1-0.0+0.1
+0.2-0.0-0.1
-0.4-0.1+0.4
Columbus vs FC Dallas-1.5+0.7+1.5
-0.1+0.0+0.1
Montreal vs Toronto FC-1.6+0.4+1.3
-0.1+0.0+0.0
NY Red Bulls vs NYCFC-0.5+0.2+0.6
Chicago vs Minnesota-0.1+0.1+0.3
-0.0+0.0+0.1
Orlando vs Vancouver-0.2+0.1+0.1
-0.1+0.0+0.1
Philadelphia vs Atlanta-0.0+0.1-0.1
-0.1+0.1+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the New England finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inSupportersChance will finish regular season at seedWooden
TPW-D-LplayoffsShield1234567891011SpoonCount
5910-0-0In3.4%45139600No1,067,154
579-1-0In0.2022492540No820,258
569-0-1100.0%0.00114336910No1,299,614
558-2-0100.00.004294420300No3,443,816
548-1-199.80.001174232700No10,730,869
537-3-099.0No00833431610No16,660,477*
527-2-195.9No03204430400No38,597,857
517-1-289.6No011038421010No71,768,270*
506-3-176.4No003244921300No79,391,194
7-0-378.4No00427481920No29,341,549
496-2-258.9No001134534700No191,809,455*
486-1-341.7No00635431500No175,288,771
5-4-139.9No00535441610No102,848,794
475-3-222.8No00221462920No302,905,014
6-0-424.8No00223462720No73,858,143*
465-2-311.4No000114043600No440,621,083
4-5-110.9No00010404360No87,229,308
455-1-45.0No000530521200No316,506,770
4-4-24.4No00429531310No321,150,012*
444-3-31.4No00117562420No604,472,070
5-0-51.7No00219562220No89,755,520
3-6-11.2No00116552620No48,461,124
434-2-40.4No008503650No641,642,815
3-5-20.3No007493860No209,367,688*
423-4-30.1No0033847120No489,442,155
4-1-50.1No0033946110No375,575,450*
413-3-40.0No0012552230No682,701,019
2-6-20.0No0012353240No84,028,853
4-0-60.0No0012652210No82,631,585*
403-2-50.0No0014503600.0%563,971,256
2-5-30.0No0013493800.0237,518,542*
392-4-40.0No006415210.0402,386,931
3-1-60.0No007425010.0274,562,208*
382-3-5OutNo02306620.0437,001,777
1-6-3OutNo02286920.061,277,397
3-0-7OutNo03316420.049,197,193*
372-2-6OutNo01197640.0292,674,359
1-5-4OutNo01177840.0126,550,013*
361-4-5OutNo098190.1173,699,743*
2-1-7OutNo00118180.0110,454,029
351-3-6OutNo0480160.3146,974,519
2-0-8OutNo0481150.333,844,579*
341-2-7OutNo0274241.082,041,137
0-5-5OutNo0174251.425,150,715
330-4-6OutNo063374.127,297,117
1-1-8OutNo0165352.826,319,023
320-3-7OutNo051498.723,731,098*
310-2-8OutNo0396117.19,503,919
300-1-9OutNo0277328.92,630,564
290-0-10OutNo138746.81,303,590
Total:7.3%0.0%0000251226282520.1%8,681,506,396

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the New England finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPW-D-LWin CupByeToronto FCNYCFCChicagoAtlantaNY Red BullsMontrealColumbusPhiladelphiaOrlandoDC United
5910-0-012.2%94011220000
579-1-010.871047971100
569-0-19.854061113121200
558-2-08.134081518162400
548-1-16.51901018201834000
538-0-24.9801019201844000
7-3-04.77091821193500
527-2-13.230716171634000
517-1-22.010513131133000
6-4-01.91051213122300
506-3-11.000378711000
7-0-31.200398721000
496-2-20.500144311000
5-5-00.50014430100
486-1-30.200122100000
5-4-10.200022100000
475-3-20.100011000000
6-0-40.100011000000
4-6-00.00000000000
465-2-30.000000000000
4-5-10.000000000000
455-1-40.000000000000
4-4-20.00000000000
3-7-00.0000000000
444-3-30.0000000000
5-0-50.00000000000
3-6-10.0000000000
434-2-40.000000000
3-5-20.000000
2-8-0No00
424-1-50.00000
3-4-30.00000
2-7-10.00
414-0-6No00
3-3-4No0
2-6-2No0
1-9-0No
29-40No
Total:0.1%0.10.00.20.50.50.50.10.10.00.00.0
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 8/19100.0*Lottery seed
NYCFC 2 New England 1 +0.4
San Jose 2 Philadelphia 2 -0.1
Orlando 1 Columbus 1 -0.1
Montreal 3 Real Salt Lake 1 +0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Toronto FC vs Philadelphia-0.0+0.0+0.2
Columbus vs Los Angeles+0.0-0.1-0.0
Real Salt Lake vs San Jose+0.0-0.1+0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 8/25100.0*Lottery seed
DC United vs New England+0.7+0.3-0.8
Philadelphia vs Atlanta+0.1-0.1-0.1
Orlando vs Vancouver+0.1-0.0-0.1
Columbus vs FC Dallas+0.1-0.0-0.1
Montreal vs Toronto FC+0.1-0.0-0.1
Real Salt Lake vs Colorado+0.1-0.1-0.0
Los Angeles vs San Jose-0.0-0.0+0.1

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPW-D-L12345678910111213141516171819202122
5910-0-031510390600
579-1-0002114902540
569-0-100102420360910
558-2-00031281440200300
548-1-10011152410320700
537-3-00005231242016010
527-2-10011163431300400
517-1-20001643534101010
506-3-10001219547121300
7-0-3000222154711920
496-2-2000018541434700
486-1-30000242974215100
5-4-10000232784316100
475-3-20000113844303000
6-0-40000214945282000
465-2-3000005636439100
4-5-10000047354311100
455-1-40000142549193000
4-4-2000132248224000
444-3-300001114234101000
5-0-5000011344328100
3-6-1000019373814200
434-2-4000042941214000
3-5-200032441256100
423-4-30001123535142000
4-1-5000115373312200
413-3-4000052339256000
2-6-2000031938309100
4-0-6000062640235000
403-2-50001123436152000
2-5-300193038193000
392-4-400031939318000
3-1-600042240285000
382-3-50019324116200
1-6-30006274420200
3-0-700111353912100
372-2-6003204427500
1-5-4002154333700
361-4-5000734421420
2-1-70011039391110
351-3-6000323452450
2-0-800324452340
341-2-7001134134101
0-5-50093838131
330-4-60042642244
1-1-80063141193
320-3-70021740339
310-2-8008324217
300-1-903224629
290-0-1001104247
Total:0000000010411016161614116210