Los Angeles Galaxy Playoff Chances

Beat Orlando 1-0, playoff odds up 7.4 to 91.9%
25 points   8-1-5

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 5/18100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
Orlando 0 LA Galaxy 1 +6.9
+1.4
+0.6
+0.6
LA Galaxy 0 Colorado 1 -5.4
-1.3
-0.8
+0.1
-0.6
RSL 2 Atlanta 1 -0.8
-0.1
-0.1
RSL 3 Toronto FC 0 -0.5
-0.1
San Jose 4 Chicago 1 -0.4
Sporting KC 1 Vancouver 1 +0.3
+0.1
Minnesota 1 Columbus 0 -0.3
-0.1
-0.0
FC Dallas 1 LAFC 1 +0.1
+0.1
+0.0
Houston 2 DC United 1 -0.1
-0.1
-0.1
LAFC 4 Montreal 2 -0.1
Philadelphia 0 Seattle 0 +0.1
-0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 5/25100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
Sporting KC vs LA Galaxy-2.5+0.6+4.6
-0.7*-0.0+1.5
-0.4-0.1+0.9
-0.3+0.0+0.6
Philadelphia vs Portland+0.2-0.1-0.9
+0.0*-0.0-0.1
-0.0+0.1+0.1
+0.0-0.0-0.1
Toronto FC vs San Jose+0.3+0.0-0.8
+0.0*+0.0-0.1
Montreal vs RSL+0.4+0.1-0.6
+0.1+0.0-0.2
+0.0+0.0-0.1
Sporting KC vs Seattle-0.5+0.2+0.5
+0.1+0.0-0.1
+0.0+0.0-0.1
Atlanta vs Minnesota+0.2-0.0-0.6
+0.1*-0.0-0.3
+0.0-0.0-0.1
Vancouver vs Toronto FC-0.4+0.2+0.4
Minnesota vs Houston-0.3+0.2+0.4
-0.1+0.1+0.0
+0.0+0.0-0.1
Vancouver vs FC Dallas+0.0+0.3-0.3
+0.1+0.0-0.2
+0.0+0.0-0.1
Philadelphia vs Colorado+0.0*-0.0-0.1
-0.0+0.1+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the LA Galaxy finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inSupportersChance will finish regular season at seedWooden
TPW-D-LplayoffsShield123456789101112SpoonCount
80-85InYes100No15,655*
7917-3-0In98.4%982No63*
7817-2-1In99.51000No214
7717-1-2In98.8991No488*
7616-3-1In97.2973No1,165*
7516-2-2In94.1946No2,664*
7415-4-1In91.89280No5,550*
7315-3-2In88.389110No11,348*
7215-2-3In82.183170No22,693*
7114-4-2In75.877230No41,629*
7014-3-3In68.4703000No77,233*
6914-2-4In59.5613810No134,636*
6813-4-3In50.3534620No224,250*
6713-3-4In40.7445330No366,423*
6612-5-3In31.4356050No574,442*
6512-4-4In22.72765800No868,601*
6412-3-5In15.420671310No1,279,001*
6311-5-4In9.614671810No1,811,641*
6211-4-5In5.49642520No2,489,748*
6111-3-6In2.755833400No3,323,614*
6010-5-5In1.235039800No4,282,196*
5910-4-6In0.4241451210No5,358,560*
5810-3-7In0.11314819100No6,506,135*
579-5-6In0.00224826300No7,640,591*
569-4-7100.0%0.001545346000No8,718,824*
558-6-6100.00.0093841111000No9,636,908*
548-5-7100.00.005304518200No10,313,211*
538-4-8100.0No022145265000No10,722,176*
527-6-7100.0No0113413410100No10,781,212*
517-5-899.9No0073340173000No10,504,535*
507-4-999.5No032341256100No9,919,162*
496-6-898.3No01143734122000No9,062,758*
486-5-995.4No0082938204000No8,004,277*
476-4-1089.4No0031938299100No6,840,947*
465-6-979.2No001113136173000No5,639,623*
455-5-1064.6No0052237268100No4,493,388*
445-4-1147.5No00213333415300No3,452,378*
434-6-1030.9No0016243725710No2,554,544*
424-5-1117.5No0031534331320No1,816,653*
414-4-128.4No001826382350No1,242,939*
403-6-113.5No0031737321000.0%812,262*
393-5-121.2No0011031401710.0510,048*
383-4-130.4No00523432720.0305,589*
372-6-120.1No00214413850.1173,840*
362-5-130.0No018354890.392,816*
352-4-140.0No0042655141.047,870*
341-6-13OutNo021958222.722,727*
331-5-14OutNo11258306.210,225*
321-4-15OutNo07543912.64,218*
311-3-16OutNo04484820.91,592*
300-5-15OutNo2435528.2554*
290-4-16OutNo1366343.2169*
280-3-17OutNo2277155.149*
270-2-18OutNo307050.010
260-1-19OutNo100Yes2
250-0-20OutNo0128882.315,618
Total:91.9%1.0%112192218128421000.0%150,739,664

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the LA Galaxy finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPW-D-LWin CupByeLAFCSeattleHoustonMinnesotaRSLFC DallasPortlandSporting KCSan JoseVancouverColorado
71-8512.4%Yes
7014-3-312.510000
6914-2-412.51000
6813-4-312.610000000
6713-3-412.5100000000000
6612-5-312.51000000000000
6512-4-412.410000000000000
6412-3-512.59900000000000
6311-5-412.49900000000000
6211-4-512.49800011000000
6111-3-612.39600011100000
10-6-412.49600011100000
6010-5-512.29201122100000
11-2-712.29201122100000
5910-4-612.08701143210000
9-7-412.08701243210000
5810-3-711.78002264311100
9-6-511.78002364311100
579-5-611.27103486421110
10-2-811.27003486521110
569-4-710.760046108621110
8-7-510.659056108621110
558-6-69.9470681310832210
9-3-89.9470681310832210
548-5-79.03507101512942210
9-2-99.0350791512943210
7-8-58.833081015121032210
538-4-88.024081117131043320
7-7-67.823081117131143320
527-6-76.714091217141143320
8-3-96.814091217141143320
517-5-85.58081117131143320
6-8-65.27081116131143320
8-2-105.58081117141154320
507-4-94.34071015121043320
6-7-74.0307101411943320
496-6-82.91058129733210
7-3-103.010581210833220
486-5-91.9004697522210
5-8-71.8003586522210
476-4-101.1002354311110
465-6-90.5001232211100
455-5-100.2000111100000
445-4-110.1000010000000
434-6-100.0000000000000
424-5-110.000000000000
414-4-120.0000000000
403-6-110.000000000
393-5-12No0
25-38No
Total:6.7%32.30.14.36.09.47.45.92.31.71.61.00.0
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 5/18100.0*Lottery seed
Orlando 0 LA Galaxy 1 -1.3
LA Galaxy 0 Colorado 1 +1.2
RSL 2 Atlanta 1 +0.1
Houston 2 DC United 1 +0.1
Minnesota 1 Columbus 0 +0.1
FC Dallas 1 LAFC 1 -0.0
NY Red Bulls 2 Vancouver 2 -0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 5/25100.0*Lottery seed
Sporting KC vs LA Galaxy+0.6-0.0-1.2
Atlanta vs Minnesota-0.1-0.0+0.2
Montreal vs RSL-0.1-0.0+0.1
Vancouver vs FC Dallas-0.0-0.0+0.1
Sporting KC vs Seattle-0.0-0.0+0.1
Philadelphia vs Portland-0.0-0.0+0.1
Minnesota vs Houston+0.0-0.1+0.0
Toronto FC vs San Jose-0.0-0.0+0.1

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPW-D-L123456789101112131415161718192021222324
80-85100
7917-3-0982
7817-2-11000
7717-1-2991
7616-3-1973
7516-2-29406
7415-4-192080
7315-3-2880110
7215-2-3821170
7114-4-2761230
7014-3-36813000
6914-2-460238010
6813-4-350346020
6713-3-441353030
6612-5-331459050
6512-4-42346408000
6412-3-515466113010
6311-5-410465118010
6211-4-55461325020
6111-3-6335343204000
6010-5-5124363908000
5910-4-60132944112010
5810-3-7012110462190100
579-5-60012104352603000
569-4-7006936933160000
558-6-60027261239211010000
548-5-7001415144061802000
538-4-8002714341125150000
527-6-700121124173131001000
517-5-800017132031916130000
507-4-90003518251623260100
496-6-800111315222771202000
486-5-90000772224141824000
476-4-100000321716222369100
465-6-900010107242313164100
455-5-1000005220162122113000
445-4-110002012825222082000
434-6-1000010632117261861000
424-5-110003114924271651000
414-4-120001074162826134100
403-6-110000317213024112000
393-5-12000102112531217100
383-4-130001415293016400
372-6-120000172133271010
362-5-1300021128341940
352-4-1400015193530101
341-6-13002103038183
331-5-140052239286
321-4-150212363813
311-3-1605294421
300-5-1502234728
290-4-161114443
280-3-17162955
270-2-18203050
260-1-19100
250-0-20011782
Total:109314516712684533211100000