Toronto FC Playoff Chances

Did not play, playoff odds up 0.0008 to 57.3%
10 points   3-1-3

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 4/6100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
Vancouver 4 Toronto 0 -3.7
-0.5
-1.1
+0.1
-0.4
Chicago 2 Houston 1 -0.6
+0.1
Seattle 5 Montreal 0 +0.4
+0.1
+0.0
Miami CF 2 Colorado 2 +0.3
+0.1
+0.0
NYCFC 1 Atlanta 1 +0.3
New England 1 Charlotte 0 +0.2
+0.1
+0.0
Columbus 1 DC United 1 +0.2
+0.1
+0.1
Nashville 1 Philadelphia 2 +0.2
-0.1
-0.1
Cincinnati 1 NY Red Bulls 2 -0.1
Minnesota 1 RSL 1 +0.1
LAFC 2 LA Galaxy 1 +0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 4/13100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
Charlotte vs Toronto-5.1+1.2+12.9
-0.4+0.0+1.0
-0.3-0.1+1.0
+0.4-0.2-1.0
-0.5+0.1+1.2
NY Red Bulls vs Chicago+0.3+0.1-1.0
-0.0+0.0+0.1
Sporting KC vs Miami CF+0.4-0.0-0.8
+0.0+0.0-0.1
+0.0+0.0-0.1
RSL vs Columbus+0.3-0.0-0.6
+0.0*+0.0-0.1
+0.0-0.0-0.1
Montreal vs Cincinnati-0.4+0.4+0.3
+0.0+0.0-0.1
NYCFC vs New England-0.2+0.5-0.0
DC United vs Orlando-0.2+0.4-0.0
-0.0+0.0+0.1
-0.0+0.0+0.1
Atlanta vs Philadelphia-0.2+0.2+0.2
Dallas vs Seattle+0.1-0.0-0.1
San Jose vs Colorado+0.1-0.1-0.1
Vancouver vs LA Galaxy-0.0+0.1+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well Toronto finishes out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inSupportersChance will finish regular season at seedWooden
TPW-D-LplayoffsShield123456789101112131415SpoonCount
80-91In100.0%100No2,648,701*
7922-3-2In99.91000No2,234*
7822-2-3In99.9100No4,955*
7721-4-2In99.81000No11,743*
7621-3-3In99.81000No25,836*
7520-5-2In99.71000No55,117*
7420-4-3In99.510000No113,825*
7320-3-4In99.31000No228,652*
7219-5-3In98.91000No440,496*
7119-4-4In98.29910No831,495*
7019-3-5In97.29910No1,527,204*
6918-5-4In95.698200No2,716,033*
6818-4-5In93.297300No4,718,152*
6717-6-4In89.895500No7,974,898*
6617-5-5In85.092800No13,124,004*
6517-4-6In78.78812000No21,088,223*
6416-6-5In70.68316100No33,029,924*
6316-5-6In60.876222000No50,453,830*
6216-4-7In49.668283000No75,289,122*
6115-6-6In37.6593560000No109,621,282*
6015-5-7In26.14840111000No155,860,229*
5914-7-6In16.237441730000No216,582,088*
5814-6-7In8.626442451000No293,810,154*
5714-5-8In3.91740311020000No389,577,421*
5613-7-7In1.41033361740000No504,784,643*
5513-6-8100.0%0.45233725810000No639,032,848*
5413-5-9100.00.121432321540000No790,658,316*
5312-7-8100.00.017243424920000No956,173,958*
5212-6-9100.00.0031430311741000No1,130,045,847*
5112-5-10100.00.00172133261120000No1,305,218,978*
5011-7-999.90.000212273220610000No1,473,446,040*
4911-6-1099.6No00151731291430000No1,625,300,235*
4811-5-1198.1No00018233224920000No1,751,839,783*
4710-7-1093.5No000031328311961000No1,844,707,384*
4610-6-1183.2No000151831281330000No1,897,642,197*
459-8-1066.3No00002923332491000No1,906,634,315*
449-7-1145.3No00003132932185100No1,870,403,882*
439-6-1225.9No0001619332811200No1,791,414,244*
428-8-1112.2No00002102634216100.0%1,674,592,708*
418-7-124.7No0000417323013200.01,527,287,708*
408-6-131.5No00019253523610.01,358,558,654*
397-8-120.4No000041634321320.01,178,279,682*
387-7-130.1No00001927372240.2995,873,432*
377-6-140.0No0000419383180.8819,873,435*
366-8-130.0No00002113339152.5657,122,199*
356-7-140.0No000162644236.3512,478,016*
346-6-150.0No000318453412.7388,530,788*
335-8-140.0No000112424522.0286,203,840*
325-7-15OutNo0007375633.3204,693,202*
315-6-16OutNo0004306645.5141,963,199*
304-8-15OutNo002237557.495,387,082*
294-7-16OutNo001178268.162,015,860*
284-6-17OutNo000128777.038,954,911*
273-8-16OutNo0089184.123,620,838*
263-7-17OutNo0059489.313,792,134*
253-6-18OutNo0039793.07,740,127*
243-5-19OutNo029895.64,166,355*
232-7-18OutNo019997.32,142,916*
222-6-19OutNo019998.41,051,600*
212-5-20OutNo0010099.0489,405*
201-7-19OutNo010099.4215,225*
191-6-20OutNo010099.689,284*
181-5-21OutNo010099.834,327*
171-4-22OutNo010099.912,282*
10-16OutNo100100.02,652,829*
Total:57.3%1.0%2356788999987531.6%30,864,860,326

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well Toronto finishes out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPW-D-LWin CupByeNY Red BullsPhiladelphiaAtlantaColumbusCincinnatiMiami CFDC UnitedCharlotteMontrealChicagoNashvilleNYCFCOrlandoNew England
70-9112.5%Yes
6918-5-412.51000
6818-4-512.510000
6717-6-412.510000000000
6617-5-512.51000000000000000
6517-4-612.510000000000000000
6416-6-512.510000000000000000
6316-5-612.510000000000000000
6216-4-712.510000000000000000
6115-6-612.510000000000000000
6015-5-712.49900000000000000
5914-7-612.49700000000000000
15-4-812.49700000000000000
5814-6-712.29411111110000000
15-3-912.29411111110000000
5714-5-811.98911111111100000
13-8-611.88811222111100000
5613-7-711.27823333221110000
14-4-911.37923333221110000
5513-6-810.46544444332210000
12-9-610.26344444432221000
14-3-1010.36544444332211000
5413-5-99.14955666543321100
12-8-78.94856666553321110
14-2-118.94756666553321110
5312-7-87.33267777654331111
13-4-107.43267777654331110
11-10-67.12977777664331111
5212-6-95.61877777664431111
11-9-75.31677777664431111
13-3-115.51777777664431111
5112-5-103.8866666654331111
11-8-83.6766666554331111
10-11-63.5756666553331111
5011-7-92.1344444443221110
12-4-112.2344454443221110
10-10-71.9244444432221110
4911-6-101.1122333222111100
10-9-81.0122222221111000
12-3-121.0122222221111000
4811-5-110.4011111111110000
10-8-90.4011111111100000
4710-7-100.1000000000000000
4610-6-110.0000000000000000
4510-5-120.0000000000000000
449-7-110.0000000000000000
439-6-120.000000000000000
428-8-110.000000000000000
418-7-120.000000000000
10-40No
Total:1.9%10.21.31.41.51.51.51.31.20.80.80.60.30.20.20.1
Points
Chance Will Make Playoffs