San Jose Earthquakes Playoff Chances

Did not play, playoff odds up 0.2 to 35.8%
5 points   1-2-2

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 4/14100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
San Jose 2 Houston 2 -4.6
-0.5
-0.3
+0.7
-0.4
Chicago 0 LA Galaxy 1 -1.2
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
New England 0 FC Dallas 1 -1.1
-0.1
-0.1
Colorado 2 Toronto FC 0 -0.6
-0.1
-0.0
Sporting KC 2 Seattle 2 +0.3
Portland 3 Minnesota 2 +0.1
DC United 1 Columbus 0 +0.2
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Sporting KC vs Vancouver+0.1+0.3-0.6
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 4/21100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
Orlando vs San Jose-4.4*-0.0+11.0
-0.4-0.0+1.0
-0.2-0.0+0.6
+1.1-0.3-2.4
-0.3+0.0+0.9
LA Galaxy vs Atlanta-0.7+0.4+0.9
-0.1+0.0+0.1
-0.1+0.0+0.1
Houston vs Toronto FC-0.6+0.6+1.0
-0.0+0.0+0.1
-0.0-0.0+0.1
-0.0+0.0+0.1
Portland vs NYCFC-0.8+0.3+0.7
-0.1+0.0+0.0
+0.1+0.0-0.1
+0.1-0.0-0.1
-0.1+0.0+0.1
FC Dallas vs Philadelphia-0.5+0.4+0.9
-0.1+0.1+0.1
-0.1+0.0+0.3
-0.0+0.0+0.1
Montreal vs LAFC+0.5+0.1-0.8
+0.1+0.0-0.1
+0.1-0.1-0.2
+0.0+0.0-0.1
Seattle vs Minnesota+0.2+0.3-0.6
+0.0+0.0-0.1
+0.2-0.1-0.3
Vancouver vs RSL-0.3+0.6+0.1
-0.0-0.0+0.1
RSL vs Colorado-0.1+0.4-0.2
+0.0+0.0-0.1
+0.2-0.0-0.1
NY Red Bulls vs Chicago-0.1+0.0+0.2

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the San Jose finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inSupportersChance will finish regular season at seedWooden
TPW-D-LplayoffsShield123456789101112SpoonCount
76-92In100.0%100No263,242*
7522-4-3In98.41000No3,684*
7422-3-4In97.51000No7,323*
7321-5-3In96.81000No14,188*
7221-4-4In95.81000No27,371*
7121-3-5In93.51000No50,718*
7020-5-4In91.29910No92,303*
6920-4-5In87.99910No160,849*
6819-6-4In83.79820No277,771*
6719-5-5In78.49730No464,139*
6619-4-6In72.195400No761,314*
6518-6-5In64.493700No1,213,769*
6418-5-6In55.8901000No1,892,725*
6318-4-7In46.3861410No2,889,043*
6217-6-6In36.48019100No4,309,167*
6117-5-7In26.77325200No6,288,446*
6016-7-6In18.064315000No8,966,546*
5916-6-7In11.054378100No12,502,370*
5816-5-8100.0%5.94442132000No17,075,837*
5715-7-7100.02.73344193000No22,800,492*
5615-6-8100.01.02343267100No29,820,661*
5515-5-9100.00.3153833122000No38,185,531*
5414-7-8100.00.193037195100No47,847,589*
5314-6-999.90.0421362792000No58,681,876*
5213-8-899.50.021331331740000No70,490,665*
5113-7-998.30.01723342592000No82,911,597*
5013-6-1095.10.0031430321741000No95,449,594*
4912-8-988.0No017213326102000No107,619,608*
4812-7-1075.5No0031228321851000No118,777,184*
4712-6-1158.0No0016193228122000No128,329,484*
4611-8-1038.7No0002102633216100No135,730,157*
4511-7-1121.9No0001417323014300No140,462,858*
4411-6-1210.3No00019243423710No142,307,583*
4310-8-114.0No0000415313215300.0%141,032,686*
4210-7-121.3No00018243524710.0136,778,064*
4110-6-130.3No000031533331420.0129,704,211*
409-8-120.1No0001826382340.1120,311,990*
399-7-130.0No0000418373290.3109,118,242*
389-6-140.0No0001113340151.396,669,987*
378-8-130.0No00162545243.683,702,982*
368-7-140.0No00031846348.270,772,520*
358-6-150.0No000112434515.558,437,194*
347-8-14OutNo0007385525.547,077,145*
337-7-15OutNo004316537.137,003,431*
326-9-14OutNo002247449.328,343,699*
316-8-15OutNo001188160.921,162,191*
306-7-16OutNo00138671.015,371,966*
296-6-17OutNo0099179.410,872,358*
285-8-16OutNo0069485.87,474,191*
275-7-17OutNo0049690.64,992,173*
265-6-18OutNo039794.03,232,406*
254-8-17OutNo029896.22,029,058*
244-7-18OutNo019997.71,235,807*
234-6-19OutNo19998.7724,936*
223-8-18OutNo010099.2411,835*
213-7-19OutNo010099.6224,690*
203-6-20OutNo010099.8118,020*
192-8-19OutNo010099.959,265*
182-7-20OutNo010099.928,655*
172-6-21OutNo010099.912,963*
162-5-22OutNo100100.05,677*
151-7-21OutNo010099.92,431*
5-14OutNo100100.0261,335*
Total:35.8%0.5%3467891011111211104.6%2,403,847,792

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the San Jose finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPW-D-LWin CupByeSporting KCLAFCFC DallasColoradoLA GalaxyVancouverHoustonMinnesotaPortlandRSLSeattle
67-9212.5%Yes
6619-4-612.51000
6518-6-512.4100000000
6418-5-612.510000000000000
6318-4-712.510000000000000
6217-6-612.510000000000000
6117-5-712.510000000000000
6016-7-612.510000000000000
5916-6-712.59900000000000
5816-5-812.49800000000000
15-8-612.49800000000000
5715-7-712.39601111000000
16-4-912.39700000000000
5615-6-812.29311111110000
14-9-612.29211111110000
5515-5-911.98622222111100
14-8-711.88522222111110
5414-7-811.27533333222110
15-4-1011.37733333221110
13-10-611.27533333222110
5314-6-910.46245555332211
13-9-710.36055555333221
15-3-1110.56345454332211
5213-8-89.04566666543321
14-5-109.34766666543321
12-11-69.14566666543321
5113-7-97.52977777654431
14-4-117.83277777654431
12-10-77.42878887554431
5013-6-105.91778888654432
12-9-85.61578888654432
14-3-125.91778888654432
4912-8-93.9766677554431
13-5-114.2867777554432
11-11-73.9767777554432
4812-7-102.4355555443321
13-4-122.6355555443321
11-10-82.3245555433321
4712-6-111.3133333322211
11-9-91.2133333222211
4611-8-100.6011111111110
4511-7-110.2011111000000
4411-6-120.1000000000000
4310-8-110.0000000000000
4210-7-120.0000000000000
4110-6-130.0000000000000
409-8-120.000000000000
399-7-130.00000000000
389-6-14No0000
5-37No
Total:2.4%12.41.71.81.81.81.81.41.31.01.00.70.4
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 4/14100.0*Lottery seed
San Jose 2 Houston 2 +0.7
New England 0 FC Dallas 1 +0.1
Chicago 0 LA Galaxy 1 +0.1
Colorado 2 Toronto FC 0 +0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 4/21100.0*Lottery seed
Orlando vs San Jose+0.7-0.0-1.7
Portland vs NYCFC+0.1-0.0-0.1
LA Galaxy vs Atlanta+0.1-0.0-0.1
Houston vs Toronto FC+0.0-0.1-0.0
Vancouver vs RSL+0.0-0.1+0.0

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPW-D-L1234567891011121314151617181920212223
79-92100
7823-4-2991
7723-3-31000
7622-5-2991
7522-4-39810
7422-3-49820
7321-5-39730
7221-4-49640
7121-3-59460
7020-5-491810
6920-4-58811100
6819-6-48414200
6719-5-57819300
6619-4-672234000
6518-6-564297000
6418-5-65634100000
6318-4-74639131100
6217-6-636441711000
6117-5-7274622320000
6016-7-61846256400000
5916-6-711432710801000
5816-5-86382616121200000
5715-7-73312222172300000
5615-6-81221528215701000
5515-5-90159292210111200000
5414-7-8094262017172501000
5314-6-90412013232169020000
5213-8-8020137242112161400000
5113-7-901072201619214902000
5013-6-100003113822221016141000
4912-8-90010731916172231020000
4812-7-100000311282023918610000
4712-6-1100010631716162414410000
4611-8-10000002010818232311300000
4511-7-11000010421516272210300000
4411-6-12000001087212821930000
4310-8-110000004211232820920000
4210-7-12000001041224282092000
4110-6-1300000015142528197200
409-8-120000001616272717610
399-7-13000000271929261330
389-6-1400000021023312391
378-8-13000014142932174
368-7-1400000172135278
358-6-1500000313323616
347-8-14000017254225
337-7-1500003174237
326-9-140001113949
316-8-1500063361
306-7-1600032671
296-6-170011979
285-8-160011386
275-7-17000991
265-6-1800694
254-8-170496
244-7-180298
234-6-190199
223-8-180199
213-7-190100
203-6-200100
192-8-190100
182-7-200100
172-6-210100
162-5-220100
151-7-210100
13-14100
121-4-24199
5-11100
Total:12132434445466666666655