San Jose Earthquakes Playoff Chances

Did not play, playoff odds up 2.5 to 78.4%
31 points   9-4-7

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 7/13100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Average seed
RSL 4 Philadelphia 0 -1.6
-0.1
-0.1
Atlanta 5 Houston 0 +0.9
+0.1
+0.0
Vancouver 0 Sporting KC 3 -0.7
Portland 2 Colorado 2 +0.6
+0.1
+0.1
Seattle 2 Atlanta 1 -0.4
-0.2
-0.1
Minnesota 1 FC Dallas 0 +0.1
-0.1
-0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Portland vs Orlando-1.1+0.7+1.5
-0.1+0.1+0.2
-0.1+0.0+0.1
LA Galaxy vs LAFC-0.8+0.0+0.5
-0.3+0.0+0.2
-0.1+0.0+0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 7/20100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Average seed
Vancouver vs San Jose-7.8-2.0+9.1
-1.1-0.4+1.4
-0.6-0.2+0.7
Toronto FC vs Houston+0.8*-0.0-2.2
+0.0+0.0-0.1
+0.0+0.0-0.1
NYCFC vs Sporting KC+0.6-0.0-2.0
+0.0*+0.0-0.1
+0.0-0.0-0.1
RSL vs Minnesota-0.9+0.6+1.0
*-0.0+0.1-0.1
-0.0+0.1-0.0
Sporting KC vs FC Dallas+0.1+0.8-1.0
+0.1+0.1-0.2
+0.0+0.0-0.1
Seattle vs Portland+0.4+0.1-1.2
-0.0+0.1-0.0
Colorado vs NYCFC-0.2+0.1+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the San Jose finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inSupportersChance will finish regular season at seedWooden
TPW-D-LplayoffsShield123456789101112SpoonCount
7314-0-0In72.0%7228No88,529
7113-1-0In53.25347No2,326
7013-0-1In40.54159No4,178
6912-2-0In33.333670No12,194
6812-1-1In23.423760No44,407
6711-3-0In16.817830No78,878*
6611-2-1In11.8128710No212,222
6511-1-2In7.479120No457,402*
6410-3-1In4.559240No821,783*
6310-2-2In2.5390700No1,705,822*
6210-1-3In1.31871100No2,944,142*
619-3-2In0.618117100No4,852,125*
609-2-3In0.207325200No8,191,640*
598-4-2In0.106233400No12,177,448*
588-3-3In0.004941910No17,799,314*
578-2-4In0.00364616200No25,403,534*
567-4-3100.0%0.002447254000No33,176,224*
557-3-4100.00.0014413410100No42,579,899*
547-2-5100.0No07324018300No32,043,462*
6-5-3100.0No063041203000No20,344,438
536-4-4100.0No021940308100No40,096,280
7-1-6100.0No032141287100No20,147,871*
526-3-599.8No01103238163000No67,679,409*
516-2-699.3No052239267100No38,108,181
5-5-499.1No032039298100No34,313,512*
505-4-596.9No0110323717300No49,913,423
6-1-797.4No0112333615200No23,232,163*
495-3-691.7No0042138288100No50,001,709
4-6-490.9No0042038298100No21,685,979*
484-5-578.9No00110313818300No32,757,564
5-2-782.1No00112333616200No33,923,022*
474-4-663.0No0004203929700No40,347,062
5-1-865.3No0005223928700No18,393,468*
464-3-744.3No00111323816200No49,881,275*
453-5-624.6No004214128600No22,175,264*
4-2-828.6No0005234225400No17,869,210
443-4-713.2No0011237381200No30,360,733*
433-3-85.5No000527452210No22,048,902*
422-5-71.9No00216443440No15,020,800*
412-4-80.5No0008364690No9,589,727*
402-3-90.1No00326521710.0%5,812,513*
391-5-80.0No0115522830.03,259,098*
381-4-90.0No008454070.01,681,637*
371-3-10OutNo033448140.1805,673*
361-2-11OutNo012352250.3347,818*
350-4-10OutNo001349381.4131,960*
340-3-11OutNo0741524.244,071*
330-2-12OutNo0330689.812,328
320-1-13OutNo1188119.92,216
310-0-14OutNo099134.088,541
Total:78.4%0.0%0712141616141173100.0%852,671,376

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the San Jose finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPW-D-LWin CupByeLAFCSeattleMinnesotaLA GalaxyPortlandRSLFC DallasHoustonSporting KCColoradoVancouver
67-7312.5%Yes
6611-2-112.4100000
6511-1-212.51000000000
6410-3-112.510000000000
6310-2-212.510000000000
6210-1-312.5100000000000
9-4-112.510000000000
619-3-212.59900000000000
609-2-312.49800010000000
8-5-112.4980001000000
598-4-212.39501111110000
9-1-412.39601111000000
588-3-312.19102221110000
9-0-512.29201121110000
7-6-112.1890223111000
578-2-411.88303342220000
7-5-211.78103452221000
567-4-311.06905674431100
8-1-511.37304564331100
6-7-111.06805684431000
557-3-410.255079106641100
6-6-210.052089116652100
8-0-610.56006896541100
547-2-59.1400911138862100
6-5-38.73601012148862100
536-4-47.22101113159973200
7-1-67.72501013159972200
5-7-27.02001114169983200
526-3-55.611011131510973200
5-6-35.3901113159973200
7-0-76.1130111415101072200
516-2-64.050912138862200
5-5-43.640911138862200
4-8-23.530911138763200
505-4-52.2106896642200
6-1-72.62079106752200
4-7-32.1106895542100
495-3-61.2003563331100
4-6-41.0003453321100
6-0-81.4004664431100
485-2-70.6002332210100
4-5-50.4001231110000
474-4-60.2001111100000
464-3-70.0000000000000
454-2-80.0000000000000
443-4-70.000000000000
433-3-80.00000000000
423-2-90.0000000
411-7-6No0
31-40No
Total:4.2%18.70.04.65.96.74.14.03.11.10.90.00.0
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 7/13100.0*Lottery seed
RSL 4 Philadelphia 0 +0.1
Seattle 2 Atlanta 1 +0.1
Portland 2 Colorado 2 -0.1
Atlanta 5 Houston 0 -0.1
Minnesota 1 FC Dallas 0 +0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
LA Galaxy vs LAFC+0.2-0.0-0.1
Portland vs Orlando+0.1-0.1-0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 7/20100.0*Lottery seed
Vancouver vs San Jose+1.1+0.4-1.3
Sporting KC vs FC Dallas-0.0-0.1+0.1
Toronto FC vs Houston-0.0-0.0+0.1
NYCFC vs Sporting KC-0.0-0.0+0.1
Seattle vs Portland+0.0-0.1+0.1
RSL vs Minnesota+0.0-0.1+0.0

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPW-D-L123456789101112131415161718192021222324
7314-0-07228
7113-1-05347
7013-0-140059
6912-2-0330670
6812-1-1230760
6711-3-0170830
6611-2-112087010
6511-1-27091020
6410-3-15092040
6310-2-230900700
6210-1-3108701100
619-3-210810170100
609-2-300721250200
598-4-2006123304000
588-3-3004634109010
578-2-4003154611602000
567-4-30017745225040000
557-3-40076374340100100
547-2-50352573911803000
6-5-302422739220030000
536-4-4002118364290801000
526-3-50014724836216030000
5-6-301362393621703000
516-2-60014121035526070100
5-5-40003101033628180100
505-4-50001372210352170300
6-1-70001482410342150200
495-3-60001410113262718100
4-6-4000038123182818100
484-5-500001281812343183000
5-2-70000139221134216200
474-4-60000048123082881000
5-1-8000004913318277100
464-3-70000129191435183000
453-5-6000047143131112000
4-2-8000000491434288100
443-4-7000012102236226100
433-3-8000005103033174000
422-5-7000023173329132000
412-4-800000172335258100
402-3-900002112935194000
391-5-8000417353112200
381-4-900017253723600
371-3-100021433351420
361-2-1100522392760
350-4-10002123338141
340-3-110052242274
330-2-1200110384110
320-1-1304274820
310-0-1401155034
Total:0061921131331231139632110000