San Jose Earthquakes Playoff Chances

Beat Chicago 4-1, playoff odds up 10 to 27.9%
14 points   4-2-6

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 5/18100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
San Jose 4 Chicago 1 +6.4
+0.2
-2.0
+0.4
RSL 3 Toronto FC 0 -0.9
-0.1
Sporting KC 1 Vancouver 1 +0.7
Minnesota 1 Columbus 0 -0.6
-0.0
Houston 2 DC United 1 -0.2
Montreal 0 New England 0 +0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
RSL vs Atlanta-1.4+0.6+1.4
-0.1+0.0+0.1
FC Dallas vs LAFC-1.5+0.3+1.0
-0.1+0.0+0.0
NY Red Bulls vs Vancouver+0.4+0.0-1.3
+0.0-0.0-0.1
LA Galaxy vs Colorado-0.4+0.4+0.7
-0.0+0.0+0.1
-0.2+0.0+0.5
Orlando vs LA Galaxy+0.4+0.0-0.6
+0.0+0.0-0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 5/25100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
Toronto FC vs San Jose-4.4-0.1+11.6
-0.1-0.0+0.4
-0.0-0.0+0.1
+0.4-0.1-0.9
-0.3+0.0+0.7
Montreal vs RSL+0.9+0.1-1.8
+0.0+0.0-0.1
Philadelphia vs Portland+0.5-0.2-1.9
+0.0-0.0-0.1
Sporting KC vs Seattle-1.0+0.5+1.0
-0.1+0.0+0.1
Atlanta vs Minnesota+0.5-0.1-1.2
+0.0-0.0-0.1
+0.0-0.0-0.1
Vancouver vs Toronto FC-0.8+0.4+0.8
-0.1+0.0+0.1
Minnesota vs Houston-0.7+0.4+0.8
Vancouver vs FC Dallas+0.2+0.6-0.8
Sporting KC vs LA Galaxy-0.6+0.6+0.6
Philadelphia vs Colorado+0.0*+0.0-0.1
-0.1+0.0+0.5
Colorado vs Columbus+0.2-0.2-0.3
New England vs DC United+0.3-0.0-0.2
Cincinnati vs NY Red Bulls+0.1-0.0-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the San Jose finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inSupportersChance will finish regular season at seedWooden
TPW-D-LplayoffsShield123456789101112SpoonCount
8022-0-0In99.6%1000No166,680
7520-1-1InYes100No3
7420-0-2In87.58813No8*
7319-2-1In85.28515No27
7219-1-2In85.78614No84*
7118-3-1In81.582171No162*
7018-2-2In70.071281No484*
6917-4-1In65.566331No1,199*
6817-3-2In54.857412No2,831*
6717-2-3In47.2504820No6,221*
6616-4-2In37.5425450No13,297*
6516-3-3In28.1336070No28,037*
6416-2-4In20.125631200No56,294*
6315-4-3In13.218641710No107,842*
6215-3-4In7.9136124200No202,407*
6114-5-3In4.28573140No365,180*
6014-4-4In2.054938700No639,680*
5914-3-5In0.83404312100No1,089,478*
5813-5-4In0.21314719200No1,793,523*
5713-4-5In0.11224627400No2,871,120*
5613-3-6100.0%0.001442349100No4,465,262*
5512-5-5100.00.008354015200No6,730,484*
5412-4-6100.00.0042643234000No9,876,562*
5311-6-5100.0No021740319100No14,096,442*
5211-5-699.9No0110343715200No19,517,381*
5111-4-799.5No0052540245000No26,320,723*
5010-6-698.5No002163732111000No34,512,089*
4910-5-796.0No0193038194000No43,959,382*
4810-4-890.7No0042038288100No54,525,753*
479-6-781.7No00212333516300No65,738,256*
469-5-868.5No00062438256100No77,025,083*
459-4-952.6No000215353313200No87,830,818*
448-6-836.2No0018283821400No97,293,913*
438-5-922.2No0004193730910No104,714,171*
428-4-1012.0No0011132371720No109,567,713*
417-6-95.7No000524402650No111,291,080*
407-5-102.3No00021538351000.0%109,740,490*
397-4-110.8No001931421700.0105,049,195*
386-6-100.3No000423452610.097,502,382*
376-5-110.1No00216443720.087,715,458*
365-7-100.0No0019394740.176,425,571*
355-6-110.0No0005315680.564,444,079*
345-5-120.0No0022462121.552,532,333*
334-7-110.0No0011665183.541,392,247*
324-6-120.0No0001064257.231,439,281*
314-5-13OutNo006613312.823,016,211*
304-4-14OutNo003554120.416,221,345*
293-6-13OutNo002495029.710,958,105*
283-5-14OutNo01415840.17,096,207*
273-4-15OutNo00346650.84,397,172*
262-6-14OutNo00277361.12,597,248*
252-5-15OutNo0217970.51,454,208*
242-4-16OutNo0158578.5772,393*
231-6-15OutNo0118984.9386,488*
221-5-16OutNo079390.0179,894*
211-4-17OutNo059593.377,752*
201-3-18OutNo39796.030,687*
190-5-17OutNo29897.610,944*
180-4-18OutNo19998.63,498*
170-3-19OutNo010099.5881*
15-16OutNo100Yes220*
140-0-22OutNo0100100.0166,682
Total:27.9%0.0%001358111517191841.5%1,608,420,640

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the San Jose finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPW-D-LWin CupByeLAFCSeattleHoustonLA GalaxyMinnesotaFC DallasRSLPortlandSporting KCVancouverColorado
68-8012.5%Yes
6717-2-312.11000
6616-4-212.51000000
6516-3-311.91000000000
6416-2-412.810000000000000
6315-4-312.5990000000000
6215-3-412.39800010000000
6114-5-312.2960001110000
6014-4-412.19201122110000
5914-3-511.88701243210000
5813-5-411.47903364221100
5713-4-510.76904586421100
12-7-310.66804586421100
5613-3-610.057167108532100
12-6-49.855167118532100
5512-5-58.9431791310642210
13-2-78.9431791310642210
5412-4-67.83119111511753210
11-7-47.62919111612853210
5311-6-56.419110121712863210
12-3-76.520110121712863210
5211-5-65.111110121612863210
12-2-85.311110121612863310
10-8-44.91019121612863210
5111-4-74.0609111511753210
10-7-53.7508111511753210
12-1-93.9509111511753210
5010-6-62.72079129642210
11-3-82.82079129652210
9-9-42.52068129642210
4910-5-71.8105797432210
11-2-91.8105797432210
9-8-51.6104686432110
4810-4-81.0003464321100
9-7-60.9003464321100
11-1-101.0003464321100
479-6-70.5002232111100
10-3-90.5002232111100
469-5-80.2001121110000
8-8-60.2001121100000
459-4-90.1000010000000
8-7-70.1000010000000
448-6-80.0000000000000
438-5-90.0000000000000
428-4-100.000000000000
417-6-90.000000000000
407-5-100.000000000000
397-4-110.00000000
387-3-12No0000
14-37No
Total:0.5%1.40.10.91.31.81.30.80.60.30.30.10.0
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 5/18100.0*Lottery seed
San Jose 4 Chicago 1 -1.0
RSL 3 Toronto FC 0 +0.1
Sporting KC 1 Vancouver 1 -0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
RSL vs Atlanta+0.1-0.0-0.1
FC Dallas vs LAFC+0.1-0.0-0.1
NY Red Bulls vs Vancouver-0.0-0.0+0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 5/25100.0*Lottery seed
Toronto FC vs San Jose+0.6-0.0-1.5
Philadelphia vs Portland-0.0+0.0+0.1
Sporting KC vs Seattle+0.1-0.0-0.1
Montreal vs RSL-0.0-0.0+0.1
Vancouver vs Toronto FC+0.1-0.0-0.1
Atlanta vs Minnesota-0.0+0.0+0.1
Colorado vs Columbus-0.0-0.0+0.1
Vancouver vs FC Dallas+0.0-0.1+0.0

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPW-D-L123456789101112131415161718192021222324
8022-0-01000
7520-1-1100
7420-0-28813
7319-2-18515
7219-1-28614
7118-3-1811171
7018-2-2701281
6917-4-1651331
6817-3-2552412
6717-2-347348020
6616-4-237454050
6516-3-328559070
6416-2-42056211200
6315-4-313562117010
6215-3-485592240200
6114-5-34452431040
6014-4-4234373807000
5914-3-512319421120100
5813-5-40120114431902000
5713-4-50111114152604000
5613-3-6005933933180100
5512-5-5002722133731502000
5412-4-60004121436722040000
5311-6-50025122912292901000
5211-5-60012918163351502000
5111-4-700005817301023150000
5010-6-60000231321162941101000
4910-5-70011811192991814000
4810-4-800004416221625381000
479-6-7000021111320288153000
469-5-800000651923152381000
459-4-90000021141421271641000
448-6-800010862125251130000
438-5-900000321617292182000
428-4-100001010925291861000
417-6-90000053152928154100
407-5-1000000217203025112000
397-4-11000102112531217100
386-6-10000001416303016400
376-5-11000017223326910
365-7-100000031329341730
355-6-11000001621372871
345-5-1200002123337141
334-7-11000162542234
324-6-12000031641337
314-5-1300019354213
304-4-140005284720
293-6-13002194930
283-5-14001134640
273-4-150084151
262-6-140043561
252-5-15022770
242-4-16012178
231-6-15001585
221-5-16001090
211-4-170793
201-3-180496
190-5-17298
180-4-18199
170-3-190100
15-16100
140-0-220100
Total:000011112344567899998741