How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 5/18100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
Orlando 5 Cincinnati 1 -2.9
-0.1
+1.3
-0.3
NY Red Bulls 1 Atlanta 0 -0.6
San Jose 4 Chicago 1 +0.5
+0.2
Orlando 0 LA Galaxy 1 +0.4
-0.1
+0.1
RSL 3 Toronto FC 0 +0.4
+0.1
Montreal 0 New England 0 +0.3
+0.1
+0.0
NY Red Bulls 2 Vancouver 2 +0.2
Minnesota 1 Columbus 0 +0.2
+0.0
LAFC 4 Montreal 2 +0.1
RSL 2 Atlanta 1 +0.1
Houston 2 DC United 1 +0.1
LA Galaxy 0 Colorado 1 +1.8
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 5/25100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
Cincinnati vs NY Red Bulls+3.6-1.1-2.8
+0.1-0.0-0.0
-5.1+1.0+4.3
+0.4-0.1-0.3
Montreal vs RSL-0.4+0.2+0.4
Toronto FC vs San Jose-0.3+0.2+0.5
-0.1+0.0+0.2
Vancouver vs Toronto FC+0.3+0.0-0.4
+0.2-0.1-0.3
DC United vs Chicago+0.2*-0.0-0.5
Chicago vs NYCFC-0.2+0.2+0.3
Colorado vs Columbus+0.2+0.0-0.4
+1.5-1.1-2.1
+0.0-0.0-0.1
Atlanta vs Minnesota-0.2+0.1+0.3
New England vs DC United+2.0-0.2-1.3
-0.1+0.0+0.0
Philadelphia vs Portland-0.0+0.0+0.1
-0.1+0.0+0.2
Philadelphia vs Colorado-0.8+0.3+2.9
Vancouver vs FC Dallas+0.2-0.1-0.3
Sporting KC vs LA Galaxy+0.2-0.1-0.2
Sporting KC vs Seattle+0.2-0.0-0.2

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Cincinnati finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inSupportersChance will finish regular season at seedWooden
TPW-D-LplayoffsShield123456789101112SpoonCount
7421-0-0In83.0%1000No15,618
6718-2-1InYes100No1
6618-1-2InNo8020No5*
6517-3-1In33.3100No9*
6417-2-2In12.1919No33*
6316-4-1In4.7919No64*
6216-3-2In6.569282No169*
6116-2-3In1.9653230No411*
6015-4-2In1.2553860No865*
5915-3-3In0.4464591No1,828*
5815-2-4In0.233501520No3,709*
5714-4-3In0.025492240No7,319*
5614-3-4In0.0164530710No14,181*
5513-5-3InNo9373814200No26,129*
5413-4-4InNo5274122500No47,310*
5313-3-5InNo21838301010No80,902*
5212-5-4100.0%No110313618400No135,829*
5112-4-599.9No05213727910No221,090*
5012-3-699.7No02123134174000No351,464*
4911-5-598.6No0052136279100No539,295*
4811-4-695.6No002123034184000No803,511*
4711-3-788.8No001521352710100No1,167,759*
4610-5-676.9No00211293519400No1,641,277*
4510-4-760.2No000520352910100No2,247,719*
449-6-641.5No00211293619400No2,992,658*
439-5-724.8No0005203729810No3,862,929*
429-4-812.6No0021131381620No4,857,297*
418-6-75.5No000522412750No5,935,619*
408-5-82.0No0021337371000.0%7,038,974*
398-4-90.6No001730441810.08,112,667*
387-6-80.1No00321462820.09,087,233*
377-5-90.0No00113433950.19,875,115*
367-4-100.0No007364890.310,423,632*
356-6-90.0No0032855151.010,676,508*
346-5-100.0No0011958222.710,593,207*
336-4-11OutNo011257305.810,189,433*
325-6-10OutNo007534010.99,491,750*
315-5-11OutNo004474918.28,550,992*
305-4-12OutNo02395927.27,449,949*
294-6-11OutNo01326737.66,269,164*
284-5-12OutNo00247548.55,080,663*
274-4-13OutNo00188259.03,969,909*
263-6-12OutNo00138768.72,983,583*
253-5-13OutNo099177.02,147,010*
243-4-14OutNo069483.81,481,494*
232-6-13OutNo049689.0974,766*
222-5-14OutNo029892.9611,442*
212-4-15OutNo019995.6362,275*
201-6-14OutNo19997.4202,808*
191-5-15OutNo010098.5106,686*
181-4-16OutNo010099.251,892*
171-3-17OutNo010099.623,593*
160-5-16OutNo010099.89,482*
11-15OutNo100100.020,437*
Total:6.1%0.0%000012361019322713.2%150,739,664

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Cincinnati finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPW-D-LWin CupByePhiladelphiaDC UnitedNYCFCAtlantaToronto FCMontrealNY Red BullsChicagoOrlandoColumbusNew England
62-7412.4%Yes
6116-2-312.41000
6015-4-212.51000
5915-3-312.3990000
5815-2-412.6980000000000
5714-4-312.896001100000
5614-3-412.1920111111100
13-6-212.7920121111000
5513-5-311.48412332211000
14-2-511.1841223222100
5413-4-410.67424443332100
14-1-69.8722455433210
12-7-210.3722455333210
5313-3-59.65935675543100
12-6-39.85836675543100
5212-5-47.94247997665110
13-2-68.04147997665110
11-8-27.84048997665210
5112-4-56.2265810118776210
11-7-36.3254910108876210
13-1-76.0255810118776210
5012-3-64.5145810118876210
11-6-44.4144910108876210
10-9-23.9124910108775210
13-0-83.8125810118876210
4911-5-53.0647997765210
12-2-73.0647997765210
10-8-32.9537997765210
4811-4-61.8235775554110
10-7-41.7225675554110
12-1-81.6235675544110
4711-3-70.9123443332110
10-6-50.9113443332110
9-9-30.8013443332100
12-0-90.8013443332100
4610-5-60.4012222211000
11-2-80.4012222211000
9-8-40.4011221111000
4510-4-70.2001111111000
9-7-50.1001111110000
11-1-90.1001111110000
449-6-60.0000000000000
10-3-80.0000000000000
439-5-70.0000000000000
10-2-90.0000000000000
429-4-80.000000000000
418-6-70.000000000000
408-5-80.0000000000
398-4-9No00000
11-38No
Total:0.1%0.20.10.20.20.20.20.10.10.10.00.00.0
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 5/18100.0*Lottery seed
Orlando 5 Cincinnati 1 +0.5
LA Galaxy 0 Colorado 1 +0.1
Orlando 0 LA Galaxy 1 -0.1
Minnesota 1 Columbus 0 -0.0
Montreal 0 New England 0 -0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 5/25100.0*Lottery seed
Cincinnati vs NY Red Bulls-0.8+0.2+0.7
New England vs DC United+0.1-0.0-0.0
Philadelphia vs Colorado-0.0+0.0+0.1
Sporting KC vs Seattle+0.0-0.0-0.1
Sporting KC vs LA Galaxy+0.0-0.0-0.1
Philadelphia vs Portland-0.0+0.0+0.1

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPW-D-L123456789101112131415161718192021222324
7421-0-083170
6718-2-1100
6618-1-28020
6517-3-13367
6417-2-2127936
6316-4-158663
6216-3-276317122
6116-2-3263239200
6015-4-21541721600
5915-3-30461826811
5815-2-40331535123200
5714-4-30251039167300
5614-3-4016540181371100
5513-5-3923516221222000
5413-4-4512712291755000
5313-3-52018632181291100
5212-5-4101022815211534000
5112-4-5005120102719880100
5012-3-6002012427181715240000
4911-5-50005120122420790100
4811-4-6000201252519151624000
4711-3-70010511913222169200
4610-5-6000201162421141751000
4510-4-700005218142123133000
449-6-600020106232323102000
439-5-700000521816272192000
429-4-80002011823291971000
418-6-70000053132728176100
408-5-8000215172927144000
398-4-9000102822312510200
387-6-800000312273220510
377-5-90000151732301320
367-4-1000002925362350
356-6-900004163533111
346-5-100000182840193
336-4-1100041942296
325-6-10000111383911
315-5-110006304518
305-4-12003224827
294-6-11001154738
284-5-1200094248
274-4-130053659
263-6-120032969
253-5-130012277
243-4-14011684
232-6-13001189
222-5-140793
212-4-150496
201-6-140397
191-5-150199
181-4-16199
171-3-170100
160-5-160100
150-4-170100
140-3-180100
11-13100
Total:00000000010112234681013171713