How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 5/18100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
Montreal 0 New England 0 -4.6
-0.7
-0.2
-0.4
San Jose 4 Chicago 1 +0.9
+0.1
+0.1
RSL 3 Toronto FC 0 +0.6
+0.1
+0.1
Minnesota 1 Columbus 0 +0.5
+0.0
Houston 2 DC United 1 +0.1
+0.1
+0.0
Philadelphia 0 Seattle 0 +0.1
+0.1
+0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
LAFC vs Montreal-2.5+1.8+10.3
-0.4+0.2+1.7
-0.1+0.0+0.6
-0.2+0.1+0.9
NY Red Bulls vs Vancouver-1.0+0.9+1.6
-0.1+0.1+0.1
-0.0+0.0+0.1
NY Red Bulls vs Atlanta-1.0+0.6+1.1
+0.0+0.1-0.1
Orlando vs LA Galaxy-0.9+0.5+0.9
Orlando vs Cincinnati-0.3+0.7*-0.0
RSL vs Atlanta+0.2+0.0-0.3
+0.1+0.0-0.2
+0.0+0.0-0.1
FC Dallas vs LAFC+0.1+0.0-0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 5/25100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
Montreal vs RSL+6.1-3.8-8.7
+0.8-0.6-1.1
+0.1-0.1-0.1
-0.0-0.0+0.1
+0.5-0.3-0.6
Toronto FC vs San Jose-0.8+0.6+1.3
-0.1+0.1+0.2
-0.1+0.0+0.1
Vancouver vs Toronto FC+0.7+0.1-1.2
+0.1+0.0-0.2
+0.1+0.0-0.1
DC United vs Chicago+0.5+0.0-1.4
-0.0+0.1*+0.0
Colorado vs Columbus+0.5+0.1-1.3
+0.0+0.0-0.1
Chicago vs NYCFC-0.7+0.7+0.9
+0.0+0.1-0.1
Cincinnati vs NY Red Bulls+0.4+0.6-0.9
+0.1+0.0-0.1
+0.0+0.0-0.1
Atlanta vs Minnesota-0.2+0.2+0.4
-0.1+0.1+0.2
-0.0+0.0+0.1
Philadelphia vs Portland-0.1+0.1+0.2
-0.1+0.1+0.1
-0.0+0.0+0.1
Philadelphia vs Colorado-0.1+0.1+0.2
-0.1+0.1+0.1
-0.0+0.0+0.1
New England vs DC United+0.1+0.1-0.1
+0.1+0.1-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Montreal finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inSupportersChance will finish regular season at seedWooden
TPW-D-LplayoffsShield123456789101112SpoonCount
76-81In99.8%100No106,758*
7517-3-0In94.31000No522*
7417-2-1In90.21000No1,708
7317-1-2In86.51000No3,935*
7216-3-1In80.9991No8,970*
7116-2-2In74.9991No21,610*
7015-4-1In68.09810No43,762*
6915-3-2In59.99820No89,943*
6815-2-3In50.99640No177,666*
6714-4-2In41.994600No323,944*
6614-3-3In32.8901000No590,866*
6514-2-4In24.2851400No1,019,600*
6413-4-3In16.77919100No1,687,093*
6313-3-4In10.67226200No2,730,539*
6212-5-3In6.06333400No4,236,355*
6112-4-4In3.152398100No6,348,735*
6012-3-5In1.3424413100No9,273,399*
5911-5-4In0.5314619300No13,010,935*
5811-4-5In0.12245276000No17,732,029*
5711-3-6In0.014403411100No23,475,025*
5610-5-5100.0%0.083239183000No30,011,451*
5510-4-6100.00.042340267100No37,284,388*
5410-3-7100.00.0215363412200No44,943,886*
539-5-6100.0No182838204000No52,435,116*
529-4-7100.0No041938299100No59,451,492*
518-6-699.9No01113236163000No65,401,108*
508-5-799.4No0062339256100No69,692,002*
498-4-898.2No00214353413200No72,131,042*
487-6-795.2No00172738214000No72,405,799*
477-5-889.3No000318373110100No70,391,739*
467-4-979.4No001103137183000No66,418,177*
456-6-865.6No00052239277100No60,679,433*
446-5-949.3No000213353613200No53,659,823*
436-4-1033.3No0016264022400No45,967,149*
425-6-919.9No0003173932910No38,066,467*
415-5-1010.4No001932391620No30,455,135*
405-4-114.7No0004234126500.0%23,545,448*
394-6-101.8No0021538351010.017,554,783*
384-5-110.6No001831411720.012,595,337*
374-4-120.2No00422442730.08,703,790*
363-6-110.0No00214413670.25,772,068*
353-5-120.0No00183545110.63,669,020*
343-4-130.0No0042750181.72,227,834*
332-6-120.0No0021952273.91,291,472*
322-5-13OutNo011351367.7711,783*
312-4-14OutNo007464613.5371,834*
301-6-13OutNo04405621.1181,894*
291-5-14OutNo02336529.883,341*
281-4-15OutNo01267340.135,604*
271-3-16OutNo0198150.213,807*
260-5-15OutNo0148660.45,051*
250-4-16OutNo0108966.11,502*
240-3-17OutNo79378.3406*
230-2-18OutNo39782.491
220-1-19OutNo10092.313
210-0-20OutNo29891.0106,441
Total:76.8%0.2%3610131516141174100.0%1,027,149,120

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Montreal finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPW-D-LWin CupByePhiladelphiaDC UnitedAtlantaNYCFCToronto FCChicagoNY Red BullsOrlandoColumbusCincinnatiNew England
68-8112.5%Yes
6714-4-212.51000
6614-3-312.510000
6514-2-412.510000000000
6413-4-312.510000000000
6313-3-412.51000000000000
6212-5-312.510000000000000
6112-4-412.59900000000000
6012-3-512.49900000000000
5911-5-412.39700110000000
12-2-612.39700110000000
5811-4-512.19411111110000
10-7-312.19311111110000
5711-3-611.88812222110000
10-6-411.88712232110000
5610-5-511.27923443220000
11-2-711.37923343220000
5510-4-610.46735565331000
9-7-410.36535675331000
11-1-810.56835565331000
5410-3-79.45457797541100
9-6-59.25157897541100
539-5-68.037699118661110
10-2-88.239699118651110
8-8-47.8356910128661110
529-4-76.624610101310771110
8-7-56.422610111310771110
10-1-96.724610101310771110
518-6-65.012610111310772110
9-3-85.214610111310872110
7-9-44.912610111310772110
508-5-73.766910129761110
9-2-93.97699129761110
7-8-53.555910129762110
498-4-82.53478107651110
7-7-62.4247897551110
487-6-71.5135575441110
8-3-91.6135575441110
477-5-80.8023343221100
6-8-60.8023343221100
467-4-90.4012222110000
456-6-80.2001111000000
446-5-90.1000000000000
436-4-100.0000000000000
425-6-90.0000000000000
415-5-100.000000000000
405-4-110.00000000000
394-6-100.000000000
383-8-9No000
21-37No
Total:3.8%19.12.64.24.45.44.13.02.80.60.60.40.0
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 5/18100.0*Lottery seed
Montreal 0 New England 0 +0.7
San Jose 4 Chicago 1 -0.1
RSL 3 Toronto FC 0 -0.1
Philadelphia 0 Seattle 0 -0.0
Houston 2 DC United 1 -0.0
Minnesota 1 Columbus 0 -0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
LAFC vs Montreal+0.4-0.2-1.7
NY Red Bulls vs Vancouver+0.1-0.1-0.1
RSL vs Atlanta-0.0-0.0+0.1
NY Red Bulls vs Atlanta+0.0-0.1-0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 5/25100.0*Lottery seed
Montreal vs RSL-0.9+0.6+1.3
Vancouver vs Toronto FC-0.1-0.0+0.1
Toronto FC vs San Jose+0.1-0.1-0.1
New England vs DC United-0.1-0.0+0.1
Atlanta vs Minnesota+0.1-0.1-0.1
Cincinnati vs NY Red Bulls-0.0-0.1+0.1
Philadelphia vs Colorado+0.0-0.1-0.1
Colorado vs Columbus-0.0-0.0+0.1
DC United vs Chicago+0.0-0.1+0.1
Chicago vs NYCFC+0.0-0.1+0.0
Philadelphia vs Portland+0.0-0.0-0.1

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPW-D-L123456789101112131415161718192021222324
8120-0-01000
7919-1-08911
7819-0-1100
7718-2-0982
7618-1-1973
7517-3-09460
7417-2-190100
7317-1-287130
7216-3-181181
7116-2-275241
7015-4-16830100
6915-3-26038200
6815-2-35145400
6714-4-242526000
6614-3-333579100
6514-2-42461131000
6413-4-317631731000
6313-3-4116120520000
6212-5-3657231040000
6112-4-43492316701000
6012-3-514021231211000
5911-5-4031173016330000
5811-4-50211134207600000
5711-3-601463421131011000
5610-5-5083291920162300000
5510-4-6041221326215601000
5410-3-70201482822111212000
539-5-61083251919182400000
529-4-70041181325227801000
518-6-6001011626221415130000
508-5-700006221172221460100
498-4-8000201492623111212000
487-6-700010732419191834000
477-5-8000003117112622891000
467-4-9000101052620171641000
456-6-80000051201325211130000
446-5-9000020136282119920000
436-4-1000010622416241872000
425-6-900003116922261761000
415-5-100001093142726144100
405-4-1100000417203024113000
394-6-10000202112531217100
384-5-11000101415293016400
374-4-120000172133261010
363-6-110000031228341940
353-5-12000001520362981
343-4-1300002113138162
332-6-12000152342254
322-5-130021540358
312-4-140018344313
301-6-13004274821
291-5-1402194930
281-4-1501124740
271-3-160074350
260-5-15043560
250-4-1623166
240-3-1702178
230-2-181882
220-1-19892
210-0-200991
Total:031537587978776543221100