How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 3/7100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
New England 1 Chicago 1 +0.4
Colorado 2 Orlando 1 +0.4
+0.1
-0.1
+0.0
FC Dallas 2 Montreal 2 +0.3
-0.1
-0.1
+0.0
Toronto FC 1 NYCFC 0 -0.1
DC United 2 Miami 1 -0.1
Atlanta 2 Cincinnati 1 -0.1
-0.1
RSL 1 NY Red Bulls 1 +0.1
Seattle 1 Columbus 1 +0.1
LAFC 3 Philadelphia 3 +0.1
San Jose 2 Minnesota 5 -0.2
Sporting KC 4 Houston 0 -0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 3/14100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
Philadelphia vs San Jose-0.5+0.4+0.8
-0.1+0.0+0.1
-0.0+0.0+0.1
New England vs Portland-0.5+0.4+0.8
-0.1+0.0+0.1
-0.0+0.0+0.1
Miami vs LA Galaxy-0.5+0.4+0.7
-0.0+0.0+0.1
-0.0+0.0+0.1
Toronto FC vs Nashville-0.4+0.4+0.7
-0.1+0.1+0.1
-0.1+0.1+0.1
-0.0*+0.0+0.1
-0.0+0.0+0.1
NYCFC vs FC Dallas-0.5+0.3+0.6
-0.0+0.0+0.1
+0.1+0.0-0.1
Columbus vs RSL-0.4+0.3+0.7
-0.1+0.1+0.1
-0.0+0.1+0.0
-0.0+0.0+0.1
Minnesota vs NY Red Bulls+0.3*-0.0-0.8
+0.1*-0.0-0.1
-0.1+0.2+0.1
+0.0+0.0-0.1
Atlanta vs Sporting KC-0.4+0.2+0.5
-0.1+0.1+0.1
*+0.0+0.1-0.2
-0.0+0.0+0.1
Orlando vs Chicago-0.1+0.4-0.2
Cincinnati vs DC United-0.1+0.4-0.1
*+0.0+0.0-0.1
+0.0+0.0-0.1
Vancouver vs Colorado+0.1+0.1-0.2
Houston vs Seattle+0.0+0.0-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Montreal finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inSupportersChance will finish regular season at seedWooden
TPW-D-LplayoffsShield12345678910111213SpoonCount
79-100InYes100No9,362*
7823-5-4In99.8%1000No842*
76-77In99.9100No4,663*
7522-5-5In99.61000No5,175*
7422-4-6In99.51000No8,516*
7321-6-5In99.21000No14,169*
7221-5-6In99.01000No22,873*
7120-7-5In98.1991No36,226*
7020-6-6In97.3991No56,691*
6920-5-7In95.99910No85,571*
6819-7-6In93.89820No126,969*
6719-6-7In90.79730No182,191*
6619-5-8In86.79640No259,768*
6518-7-7In81.194600No361,713*
6418-6-8In74.091900No494,427*
6317-8-7In65.2871300No659,927*
6217-7-8In54.98217100No867,619*
6117-6-9In43.77523200No1,113,088*
6016-8-8In32.26729400No1,407,142*
5916-7-9In21.658357000No1,733,397*
5816-6-10In12.7484011100No2,101,424*
5715-8-9In6.43743173000No2,496,699*
5615-7-10100.0%2.726432461000No2,907,329*
5515-6-11100.00.9173931112000No3,320,036*
5414-8-10100.00.21032351841000No3,723,324*
5314-7-11100.00.0523362592000No4,090,540*
5213-9-10100.00.02143131164100No4,404,235*
5113-8-1199.70.017223325102000No4,659,425*
5013-7-1298.90.0031328311861000No4,824,775*
4912-9-1196.3No016193126123000No4,897,627*
4812-8-1289.7No0021124312182000No4,881,803*
4712-7-1377.1No00141528291751000No4,766,348*
4611-9-1258.7No00017203026123000No4,558,524*
4511-8-1338.1No0003112430218200No4,271,799*
4411-7-1420.7No0001515282916510No3,922,884*
4310-9-139.1No0001721312611200.0%3,529,439*
4210-8-143.3No000312273220610.03,111,881*
4110-7-151.0No000161832291220.02,685,246*
409-9-140.2No00021027352150.12,271,128*
399-8-150.0No001519353190.51,878,336*
389-7-160.0No0002113138171.81,521,470*
378-9-150.0No000162443264.91,200,941*
368-8-16OutNo00317433710.8929,420*
358-7-17OutNo00111404919.7701,744*
347-9-16OutNo0006346031.0518,386*
337-8-17OutNo003276943.3373,333*
327-7-18OutNo002217855.7263,222*
316-9-17OutNo001158466.8180,456*
306-8-18OutNo00118975.8120,442*
296-7-19OutNo0079383.578,540*
285-9-18OutNo049589.049,751*
275-8-19OutNo039792.830,477*
265-7-20OutNo029895.318,405*
254-9-19OutNo19997.310,738*
244-8-20OutNo19998.35,998*
234-7-21OutNo010099.03,351*
223-9-20OutNo010099.41,781*
213-8-21OutNo010099.9867*
4-20OutNo100100.09,095*
Total:67.1%4.8%111110109887765431.4%86,771,548

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Montreal finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPW-D-LWin CupByeAtlantaColumbusToronto FCNY Red BullsDC UnitedChicagoPhiladelphiaNew EnglandCincinnatiOrlandoMiamiNYCFC
66-10012.5%Yes
6518-7-712.510000000
6418-6-812.6100000
6317-8-712.4100000000000000
6217-7-812.5100000000000000
6117-6-912.5100000000000000
16-9-712.5100000000000000
6016-8-812.5100000000000000
17-5-1012.4100000000000000
5916-7-912.599000000000000
15-10-712.499000000000000
5816-6-1012.599000000000000
15-9-812.499000000000000
5715-8-912.497000000000000
16-5-1112.497000000000000
5615-7-1012.294111111000000
14-10-812.293111111100000
16-4-1212.394111110000000
5515-6-1111.988111111111111
14-9-911.987111111111111
13-12-712.088111111111111
5414-8-1011.477223222222111
15-5-1211.679222222211111
13-11-811.477222222222111
5314-7-1110.664444433322222
13-10-910.462444433333222
15-4-1310.865444433322222
5213-9-109.246555544444332
14-6-129.449555544433332
12-12-89.347555544433332
5113-8-117.630666655544443
14-5-137.933666654444433
12-11-97.529666655544443
5013-7-125.817666655544443
12-10-105.615666655544443
14-4-145.918666655544443
4912-9-113.77555544444433
13-6-134.08555554444433
11-12-93.87555554444433
4812-8-122.23344433333222
13-5-142.23344433333322
4712-7-131.11222222211111
4611-9-120.40111111111111
4511-8-130.10000000000000
4411-7-140.00000000000000
4311-6-150.00000000000000
4210-8-140.0000000000000
4110-7-150.0000000000000
409-9-14No000
4-39No
Total:5.2%32.11.92.02.02.01.71.51.51.41.41.31.21.0
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 3/7100.0*Lottery seed
New England 1 Chicago 1 -0.1
FC Dallas 2 Montreal 2 -0.0
Colorado 2 Orlando 1 -0.0
Atlanta 2 Cincinnati 1 +0.0
Toronto FC 1 NYCFC 0 +0.0
DC United 2 Miami 1 +0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 3/14100.0*Lottery seed
Minnesota vs NY Red Bulls-0.0-0.0+0.1
Atlanta vs Sporting KC+0.1-0.1-0.1
Columbus vs RSL+0.1-0.1-0.1
Toronto FC vs Nashville+0.1-0.1-0.1
Philadelphia vs San Jose+0.1-0.1-0.1
New England vs Portland+0.1-0.1-0.1
Miami vs LA Galaxy+0.0-0.0-0.1
Cincinnati vs DC United+0.0-0.1+0.0
Orlando vs Chicago+0.0-0.1+0.0

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPW-D-L1234567891011121314151617181920212223242526
79-100100
7823-5-410000
7723-4-51000
7622-6-41000
7522-5-510000
7422-4-69900
7321-6-59910
7221-5-69910
7120-7-59811
7020-6-69721
6920-5-796310
6819-7-6945200
6719-6-7917300
6619-5-8879400
6518-7-781136000
6418-6-874179000
6317-8-76522120000
6217-7-855271611000
6117-6-944322112000
6016-8-832352634000
5916-7-92236296700000
5816-6-10133530111101000
5715-8-96302617151300000
5615-7-1032420232046010000
5515-6-11116122722910120000
5414-8-1001062620161524010000
5314-7-110522113221969020000
5213-9-10020146251814142401000
5113-8-11010722112211879120000
5013-7-1200030135231615153601000
4912-9-110010611892217911130000
4812-8-1200020103221218175820000
4712-7-13000104015523161314720000
4611-9-1200001071199211715720000
4511-8-1300003011322132017931000
4411-7-14000105015615222011410000
4310-9-1300001071717242213510000
4210-8-14000030271724241562000
4110-7-15000010027172525166100
409-9-140000002717262515610
399-8-15000000281827251440
389-7-16000000310213024102
378-9-150000014132631205
368-8-160001619333011
358-7-170000211293820
347-9-160015214131
337-8-170002144043
327-7-1800183556
316-9-170042867
306-8-180022276
296-7-19011584
285-9-18001189
275-8-1900793
265-7-200595
254-9-190397
244-8-20298
234-7-21199
223-9-20199
213-8-210100
203-7-220100
192-9-21199
4-18100
Total:56564646454544333333332221