Points
Chance Will Win Championship

Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
Chance will win titleUEFA CLChance will finish season at seedRelegated
SundayPGW-D-LGD%Change%Change123456789101112131415161718Avg.Change%ChangeRPIStrengthWednesday
PSVWHeracles 2-14916-1-22966.7%+1.196.3%+2.667303000000001.4+0.05No1.711PSV Eindhoven
AjaxWFeyenoord 2-04414-2-33931.7+0.889.6+7.132589200000000001.8+0.11No2.767Ajax Amsterdam
AZ3912-3-4151.2-0.89.5-3.318462813310000000003.5+0.01No4.650AZ Alkmaar
FeyenoordLAjax 0-23219-5-4190.3-1.13.2-5.80327352383100000000004.2-0.300.0%+0.05.683at UtrechtFeyenoord Rotterdam
Zwolle3610-6-360.1-0.11.3-0.50113263616620000000004.8+0.080.03.566PEC Zwolle
Vitesse287-7-590.0-0.00.1-0.000151533251253100000006.6+0.050.06.588Vitesse Arnhem
Utrecht2918-5-5-10.0-0.00.0-0.000141125281584210000007.0+0.100.07.478FeyenoordFC Utrecht
ADO278-3-8-30.0-0.00.0-0.0000027142219151063100009.0+0.180.1-0.08.456ADO Den Haag
Heerenveen236-5-8-60.00.0-0.00000038151817151174210010.0+0.210.5-0.09.422SC Heerenveen
GroningenTWillem II 1-1236-5-810.0-0.00.0-0.00000138141717151284210010.1+0.020.6-0.112.500FC Groningen
VVV235-8-6-40.00.0-0.00000025101518171495310010.6+0.231.0-0.110.440VVV Venlo
HeraclesLPSV 1-2226-4-9-120.0-0.00.0-0.00000012691216171511731011.7-0.263.3+1.011.380Heracles Almelo
ExcelsiorLSparta 0-2216-3-10-80.0-0.00.0-0.00000001358121720161052012.6-0.846.2+3.513.393Excelsior Rotterdam
Willem IITGroningen 1-1174-5-10-13No0.000000011358131920179314.3-0.0324.3+1.514.376Willem II Tilburg
Twente164-4-11-9No0.0000000012471219221910414.5+0.0526.9+0.916.397FC Twente Enschede
NAC164-4-11-16No0.000000001135914202416815.1+0.0239.5+0.415.322NAC Breda
SpartaWExcelsior 2-0143-5-11-23No0.00000000000014815314116.9+0.4177.4-8.918.251Sparta Rotterdam
Roda123-3-13-23NoNo000000000013614314417.0-0.1080.0+1.817.271Roda JC Kerkrade

Monte Carlo simulation: Does not prove mathematical Clinching or Elimination
Tie Breakers:
1. Wins
2. Goal Differential
3. Goals Scored.
Direct Comments/Corrections to Joshuabrianlane@gmail.com

Big Games

Who should we root for?   Explain

Week of 1/19
Heracles 1 PSV 2
10:45 AM Sun100.0*Chance wins title100.0*UEFA CL100.0*Relegated100.0*Average seed
PSV+6.3
+2.3
+0.1
Ajax-5.4
-0.5
AZ-0.5
-1.0
Feyenoord-0.4
-0.7
VVV+0.1
HeraclesNo
No
+0.8
-0.4
Willem II-0.2
Twente-0.2
NAC-0.2
Ajax 2 Feyenoord 0
8:30 AM Sun100.0*Chance wins title100.0*UEFA CL100.0*Relegated100.0*Average seed
PSV-5.0
+0.2
Ajax+6.2
+6.4
+0.2
AZ-0.3
-1.8
Feyenoord-0.8
-4.4
-0.2
Zwolle-0.3
Utrecht 1 AZ 1
2:00 PM Fri100.0*Chance wins title100.0*UEFA CL100.0*Relegated100.0*Average seed
PSV+0.4
+0.6
Ajax+0.3
+1.4
AZ-0.7
-2.3
*No
-0.1
Feyenoord+0.3
Utrecht-0.1
Zwolle 1 NAC 0
1:45 PM Sat100.0*Chance wins title100.0*UEFA CL100.0*Relegated100.0*Average seed
Ajax-0.2
Zwolle+0.4
No
+0.2
Heracles-0.2
Excelsior-0.2
Willem II-1.0
Twente-1.2
NACNo
+3.8
-0.2
Sparta-0.4
Roda-0.5
Vitesse 1 Heerenveen 1
2:45 PM Sat100.0*Chance wins title100.0*UEFA CL100.0*Relegated100.0*Average seed
Vitesse-0.2
HeerenveenNo
-0.2
+0.1
ADO 1 VVV 1
1:45 PM Sat100.0*Chance wins title100.0*UEFA CL100.0*Relegated100.0*Average seed
ADO-0.2
VVVNo
-0.2
+0.0
Willem II 1 Groningen 1
8:30 AM Sun100.0*Chance wins title100.0*UEFA CL100.0*Relegated100.0*Average seed
GroningenNo
No
-0.1
-0.1
Willem II*No
+1.3
-0.1
Twente-0.3
NAC-0.5
Sparta-0.1
Roda-0.2
Sparta 2 Excelsior 0
6:30 AM Sun100.0*Chance wins title100.0*UEFA CL100.0*Relegated100.0*Average seed
ExcelsiorNo
No
+2.2
-0.6
Willem II+0.7
Twente+0.8
NAC+0.7
Sparta-6.3
+0.3
Roda+1.8
Roda 1 Twente 1
12:30 PM Sat100.0*Chance wins title100.0*UEFA CL100.0*Relegated100.0*Average seed
Heracles-0.2
Excelsior-0.2
Willem II-0.9
Twente*No
+1.1
-0.1
NAC-1.0
Sparta-0.4
Roda+1.8
-0.1
Utrecht vs FeyenoordIf winner is:HomeDrawAway
8:30 AM Wed100.0*Chance wins title100.0*UEFA CL100.0*Relegated100.0*Average seed
Ajax90.590.288.8
Feyenoord0.10.10.5
1.52.24.8
0.0NoNo
4.54.33.9
Utrecht6.57.17.4
Week of 1/26
Twente vs PSVIf winner is:HomeDrawAway
1:45 PM Sat100.0*Chance wins title100.0*UEFA CL100.0*Relegated100.0*Average seed
PSV56.362.373.1
93.695.597.8
1.51.41.3
Ajax41.335.825.8
90.189.889.4
1.71.81.9
AZ1.81.40.8
10.99.98.7
Excelsior7.36.35.7
12.712.612.5
Willem II26.724.423.1
14.414.314.2
Twente16.426.131.9
13.814.514.8
NAC42.439.738.1
15.215.115.1
Sparta79.177.676.6
17.016.916.9
Roda81.480.279.4
17.117.017.0
Utrecht vs AjaxHomeDrawAway
6:30 AM Sun100.0*Chance wins title100.0*UEFA CL100.0*Relegated100.0*Average seed
PSV75.571.160.8
96.796.596.1
1.31.31.4
Ajax22.427.238.0
83.887.793.1
2.01.91.7
AZ1.61.41.0
12.810.67.5
Feyenoord4.53.62.4
Utrecht6.57.07.3
Willem II vs AZHomeDrawAway
10:45 AM Sun100.0*Chance wins title100.0*UEFA CL100.0*Relegated100.0*Average seed
PSV67.166.966.3
97.496.995.5
Ajax32.031.931.5
92.491.187.6
AZ0.50.71.8
5.27.212.7
3.83.63.4
Excelsior7.0*6.25.8
12.712.612.5
Willem II14.823.829.2
13.614.314.6
Twente29.127.025.8
14.614.514.5
NAC42.339.638.0
15.215.115.1
Sparta78.977.576.6
17.016.916.9
Roda81.380.179.4
Feyenoord vs ADOHomeDrawAway
8:30 AM Sun100.0*Chance wins title100.0*UEFA CL100.0*Relegated100.0*Average seed
Ajax89.190.490.6
Feyenoord0.40.10.1
4.21.91.2
NoNo0.0
4.04.44.6
ADONoNo0.0
9.28.98.2
Zwolle vs VitesseHomeDrawAway
1:45 PM Sat100.0*Chance wins title100.0*UEFA CL100.0*Relegated100.0*Average seed
Zwolle1.90.80.5
NoNo0.0
4.54.95.2
Vitesse6.96.66.0
NAC vs VVVHomeDrawAway
2:45 PM Sat100.0*Chance wins title100.0*UEFA CL100.0*Relegated100.0*Average seed
VVVNo*No0.0
0.0No0.0
1.90.80.2
11.110.79.9
Excelsior7.06.05.5
Willem II26.523.822.4
Twente29.726.324.7
14.614.514.5
NAC29.241.648.2
14.515.315.6
Sparta78.977.176.1
17.016.916.8
Roda81.379.878.9
17.117.017.0
Groningen vs HeraclesHomeDrawAway
12:30 PM Sat100.0*Chance wins title100.0*UEFA CL100.0*Relegated100.0*Average seed
Groningen0.0NoNo
0.20.81.5
9.610.511.0
HeraclesNoNo0.0
4.32.81.1
12.111.610.7
Heerenveen vs SpartaHomeDrawAway
2:00 PM Fri100.0*Chance wins title100.0*UEFA CL100.0*Relegated100.0*Average seed
Heerenveen0.0NoNo
0.20.71.6
9.710.410.8
Willem II23.724.426.4
Twente26.327.129.3
14.514.514.6
NAC38.839.741.8
15.115.115.2
Sparta80.876.365.6
17.016.816.4
Roda79.380.482.6
17.017.017.1
Roda vs ExcelsiorHomeDrawAway
8:30 AM Sun100.0*Chance wins title100.0*UEFA CL100.0*Relegated100.0*Average seed
ExcelsiorNoNo0.0
10.0*6.22.6
13.112.711.9
NAC40.138.939.2
Sparta78.976.976.3
17.016.916.8
Roda72.682.185.8
16.717.117.3

* A starred outcome could have no effect or just a really small effect. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Thank you Josh Lane for adding this league.