Philadelphia Union Playoff Chances

Tied LAFC 3-3, playoff odds up 3.7 to 47%
1 points   0-1-1

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 3/7100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
New England 1 Chicago 1 +0.4
Colorado 2 Orlando 1 +0.4
+0.0
LAFC 3 Philadelphia 3 +0.4
-0.4
+0.0
Toronto FC 1 NYCFC 0 -0.1
DC United 2 Miami 1 -0.1
Atlanta 2 Cincinnati 1 -0.1
San Jose 2 Minnesota 5 -0.1
-0.1
LA Galaxy 0 Vancouver 1 +0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 3/14100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
Philadelphia vs San Jose+6.2-4.7-9.2
+0.6-0.5-0.8
+0.6-0.5-0.8
-1.6+0.9+2.6
+0.5-0.4-0.8
New England vs Portland-0.6+0.4+0.8
-0.0+0.0+0.1
-0.0+0.0+0.1
Miami vs LA Galaxy-0.5+0.4+0.8
-0.0+0.0+0.1
-0.0+0.0+0.1
Toronto FC vs Nashville-0.5+0.4+0.8
-0.1+0.0+0.1
-0.1*+0.0+0.2
-0.0+0.0+0.1
Minnesota vs NY Red Bulls+0.4-0.0-0.9
+0.0*-0.0-0.1
-0.0+0.1+0.0
+0.0-0.0-0.1
NYCFC vs FC Dallas-0.6+0.3+0.6
+0.0+0.0-0.1
+0.1-0.1-0.1
-0.1+0.0+0.1
Columbus vs RSL-0.5+0.4+0.8
-0.1+0.0+0.1
-0.0*-0.0+0.1
-0.0+0.0+0.1
Atlanta vs Sporting KC-0.4+0.3+0.6
-0.1+0.0+0.1
*+0.0+0.1-0.1
-0.0+0.0+0.1
Orlando vs Chicago-0.1+0.4-0.2
Cincinnati vs DC United-0.1+0.4-0.1
+0.0-0.0-0.1
Vancouver vs Colorado+0.0+0.0-0.1
+0.0-0.0-0.1
Houston vs Seattle+0.1-0.1-0.2

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Philadelphia finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inSupportersChance will finish regular season at seedWooden
TPW-D-LplayoffsShield12345678910111213SpoonCount
76-97In100.0%100No8,864*
7523-5-4In99.51000No595*
7423-4-5In99.8100No1,137*
7322-6-4In99.31000No1,943*
7222-5-5In98.61000No3,447*
7122-4-6In98.21000No6,054*
7021-6-5In97.5991No9,759*
6921-5-6In95.8991No16,360*
6820-7-5In93.7982No26,313*
6720-6-6In90.79730No40,615*
6620-5-7In86.59640No62,417*
6519-7-6In81.29460No95,014*
6419-6-7In74.191900No139,655*
6319-5-8In65.4871200No201,291*
6218-7-7In55.18217100No284,455*
6118-6-8In43.87522200No393,158*
6017-8-7In32.36729400No535,544*
5917-7-8In21.858357100No711,705*
5817-6-9In12.9474011100No928,534*
5716-8-8In6.6374317300No1,188,134*
5616-7-9In2.72643246100No1,491,075*
5516-6-10100.0%0.9173931112000No1,830,293*
5415-8-9100.00.2103235185100No2,207,202*
5315-7-10100.00.0522352692000No2,608,170*
5215-6-1199.90.02143032175100No3,023,292*
5114-8-1099.70.0172233251020000No3,436,800*
5014-7-1198.80.0031328311961000No3,830,894*
4913-9-1096.0No0161930271341000No4,188,751*
4813-8-1189.0No0021024312292000No4,490,596*
4713-7-1276.0No00141528291761000No4,721,429*
4612-9-1157.3No00017193026133000No4,864,122*
4512-8-1236.7No0002102431229200No4,912,603*
4412-7-1319.6No0001415283017510No4,866,874*
4311-9-128.6No0001720312611200.0%4,723,085*
4211-8-133.1No000311263220610.04,489,610*
4111-7-140.9No000151832291320.04,188,349*
4010-9-130.2No00021026352250.13,823,173*
3910-8-140.0No00015193531100.43,418,744*
3810-7-150.0No0002113139171.72,994,268*
379-9-140.0No00162443264.82,563,826*
369-8-150.0No000317433710.52,153,640*
359-7-16OutNo00110404919.41,769,684*
348-9-15OutNo0006346030.71,419,799*
338-8-16OutNo003276943.11,115,450*
328-7-17OutNo002217855.5856,748*
317-9-16OutNo001158466.7642,423*
307-8-17OutNo00108976.1470,521*
297-7-18OutNo0079383.2337,130*
286-9-17OutNo0059588.9234,045*
276-8-18OutNo039792.7159,518*
266-7-19OutNo029895.4105,345*
255-9-18OutNo19997.267,651*
245-8-19OutNo19998.342,710*
235-7-20OutNo010098.926,018*
224-9-19OutNo010099.415,545*
214-8-20OutNo010099.58,837*
204-7-21OutNo010099.94,853*
1-19OutNo100100.013,481*
Total:47.0%1.6%46677888999994.4%86,771,548

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Philadelphia finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPW-D-LWin CupByeAtlantaColumbusToronto FCNY Red BullsMontrealDC UnitedChicagoNew EnglandCincinnatiOrlandoMiamiNYCFC
65-9712.6%Yes
6419-6-712.51000000
6319-5-812.61000000000
6218-7-712.5100000000000000
6118-6-812.4100000000000000
6017-8-712.5100000000000000
5917-7-812.499000000000000
18-4-1012.599000000000000
5817-6-912.599000000000000
16-9-712.499000000000000
5716-8-812.497000000000000
17-5-1012.397000000000000
5616-7-912.293111111000000
15-10-712.293111111100000
17-4-1112.394111111000000
5516-6-1011.987111111111111
15-9-811.886122111111111
17-3-1211.887111111111111
5415-8-911.376333222222111
16-5-1111.478222222211111
14-11-711.376333332222111
5315-7-1010.463444443322222
14-10-810.361444443322222
16-4-1210.564444443322222
5215-6-119.247555554433332
14-9-98.945555554433332
13-12-79.046555554433332
5114-8-107.329666665444433
15-5-127.631666665444433
13-11-87.328666665444433
5014-7-115.516666665544443
13-10-95.215666665444443
15-4-135.617666665544443
4913-9-103.46555554433333
14-6-123.78555554444333
12-12-83.67555554433333
4813-8-112.02333333322222
14-5-132.23444443333322
12-11-91.92333333322222
4713-7-121.01222222211111
12-10-100.91222222111111
4612-9-110.40111111111110
4512-8-120.10000000000000
4412-7-130.00000000000000
4311-9-120.00000000000000
4211-8-130.0000000000000
4111-7-14No000000000000
4011-6-150.00000000
399-11-12No00
1-38No
Total:2.9%16.61.51.51.51.51.51.31.11.01.01.00.90.7
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 3/7100.0*Lottery seed
LAFC 3 Philadelphia 3 -0.1
New England 1 Chicago 1 -0.1
Colorado 2 Orlando 1 -0.0
Toronto FC 1 NYCFC 0 +0.0
DC United 2 Miami 1 +0.0
Seattle 1 Columbus 1 -0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 3/14100.0*Lottery seed
Philadelphia vs San Jose-1.1+0.8+1.7
Minnesota vs NY Red Bulls-0.0-0.0+0.1
Atlanta vs Sporting KC+0.1-0.0-0.1
Columbus vs RSL+0.0-0.1-0.1
NYCFC vs FC Dallas+0.1-0.0-0.1
New England vs Portland+0.0-0.1-0.1
Toronto FC vs Nashville+0.0-0.1-0.1
Orlando vs Chicago+0.0-0.1+0.0

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPW-D-L1234567891011121314151617181920212223242526
78-97100
7724-4-4991
7624-3-5100
7523-5-49900
7423-4-51000
7322-6-49900
7222-5-59910
7122-4-69810
7021-6-59821
6921-5-69631
6820-7-59452
6720-6-691730
6620-5-7869400
6519-7-68113600
6419-6-774179000
6319-5-8652212000
6218-7-75527161100
6118-6-844322112000
6017-8-732352634000
5917-7-82236296701000
5817-6-9133430101101000
5716-8-873027171613000
5616-7-93232023204601000
5516-6-101161326238101200000
5415-8-90106262015162401000
5315-7-100522014222069020000
5215-6-11020136241813152501000
5114-8-1001072201221196101200000
5014-7-1100030135231614163601000
4913-9-100010611892118912131000
4813-8-1100020103211318175920000
4713-7-1200104014622161315720000
4612-9-11000010711892118157200000
4512-8-120000201032113211793100000
4412-7-13000010411461623201141000
4311-9-1200001072717242213510000
4211-8-130000030281725231561000
4111-7-14000010027172524156100
4010-9-130000002717262515510
3910-8-140000000281927251440
3810-7-15000001310223024102
379-9-14000014132731195
369-8-1500001619333011
359-7-16000211293819
348-9-1500016214131
338-8-160002144043
328-7-1700183556
317-9-1600042967
307-8-170022276
297-7-180011683
286-9-17001189
276-8-1800793
266-7-1900495
255-9-180397
245-8-190298
235-7-200199
224-9-19199
214-8-200100
204-7-210100
193-9-200100
183-8-210100
173-7-22100
163-6-230100
1-15100
Total:23242434343535444455555554