How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 3/7100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
Portland 1 Nashville 0 -5.0
-0.4
-0.4
+1.4
-0.4
LAFC 3 Philadelphia 3 +0.5
+0.0
Colorado 2 Orlando 1 -0.5
-0.0
RSL 1 NY Red Bulls 1 +0.4
+0.0
Seattle 1 Columbus 1 +0.4
+0.0
FC Dallas 2 Montreal 2 +0.4
+0.0
Sporting KC 4 Houston 0 -0.1
LA Galaxy 0 Vancouver 1 -0.1
+0.1
San Jose 2 Minnesota 5 -0.1
New England 1 Chicago 1 -0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 3/14100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
Toronto FC vs Nashville-3.7+0.2+10.2
-0.3*-0.0+0.7
-0.2-0.0+0.7
+1.7-0.5-4.2
-0.3+0.0+0.9
Columbus vs RSL+0.4*-0.0-0.9
+0.0*+0.0-0.1
-0.0*-0.0+0.1
+0.0-0.0-0.1
New England vs Portland+0.4*-0.0-0.9
+0.0*+0.0-0.1
+0.1-0.1-0.1
+0.0-0.0-0.1
Miami vs LA Galaxy+0.4*+0.0-0.8
+0.1-0.1-0.1
+0.0-0.0-0.1
NYCFC vs FC Dallas+0.4+0.1-0.7
+0.0*+0.0-0.1
+0.3-0.1-0.3
+0.0+0.0-0.1
Philadelphia vs San Jose+0.3*+0.0-0.8
*+0.0-0.1+0.1
+0.0-0.0-0.1
Minnesota vs NY Red Bulls-0.3+0.2+0.5
-0.0+0.0+0.1
Atlanta vs Sporting KC+0.3*-0.0-0.5
+0.0*+0.0-0.1
Vancouver vs Colorado-0.3+0.3+0.2
+0.1-0.0-0.1
Houston vs Seattle-0.1+0.3-0.2
+0.2-0.1-0.3
Cincinnati vs DC United+0.1-0.1-0.1
Orlando vs Chicago+0.1-0.1-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Nashville finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inSupportersChance will finish regular season at seedWooden
TPW-D-LplayoffsShield12345678910111213SpoonCount
75-96InYes100No8,491*
7423-5-4In98.0%991No196*
7323-4-5In99.41000No313*
7222-6-4In99.4991No681*
7122-5-5In98.5991No1,120*
7022-4-6In97.8991No2,144*
6921-6-5In96.59820No3,607*
6821-5-6In94.6973No6,110*
6720-7-5In92.09640No10,108*
6620-6-6In88.69460No16,661*
6520-5-7In83.491900No26,204*
6419-7-6In76.8871300No41,557*
6319-6-7In68.5821710No63,362*
6219-5-8In58.6762220No95,231*
6118-7-7In47.36828400No139,805*
6018-6-8In35.75934600No201,228*
5917-8-7In24.6494010100No283,739*
5817-7-8In15.1384316200No391,121*
5717-6-9In7.82844235100No531,009*
5616-8-8In3.419403010100No706,491*
5516-7-9100.0%1.1113435164000No921,279*
5416-6-10100.00.362536248100No1,176,874*
5315-8-9100.00.131633301430000No1,478,513*
5215-7-1099.90.0192533228100No1,817,891*
5115-6-1199.40.004163129154100No2,190,999*
5014-8-1097.7No018233224102000No2,594,876*
4914-7-1193.1No0031428301861000No3,015,537*
4813-9-1083.5No00161930271330000No3,431,387*
4713-8-1167.8No00021024312282000No3,829,105*
4613-7-1247.9No0014152829175100No4,186,534*
4512-9-1128.6No0001720312612300No4,493,796*
4412-8-1214.2No000311253121710No4,726,600*
4312-7-135.8No000151730291430No4,875,519*
4211-9-121.9No00029243324810.0%4,935,709*
4111-8-130.5No000141531321530.04,886,078*
4011-7-140.1No001824362460.14,744,986*
3910-9-130.0No0004163533110.44,520,677*
3810-8-140.0No001103040191.54,213,728*
3710-7-150.0No00152243294.43,842,858*
369-9-14OutNo00215434010.03,432,776*
359-8-15OutNo00110395118.73,008,588*
349-7-16OutNo0005336229.92,576,651*
338-9-15OutNo003267142.42,158,481*
328-8-16OutNo001207954.91,769,268*
318-7-17OutNo01148566.21,414,543*
307-9-16OutNo00109075.61,106,055*
297-8-17OutNo0079383.2844,926*
287-7-18OutNo0049688.7629,536*
276-9-17OutNo039792.6457,620*
266-8-18OutNo029895.4325,293*
256-7-19OutNo019997.2224,974*
245-9-18OutNo019998.3150,985*
235-8-19OutNo010099.098,237*
225-7-20OutNo010099.362,607*
214-9-19OutNo010099.638,501*
204-8-20OutNo010099.823,132*
194-7-21OutNo010099.913,402*
183-9-20OutNo0100100.07,488*
173-8-21OutNo010099.94,062*
0-16OutNo100100.012,299*
Total:29.1%0.6%123456789101214189.5%86,771,548

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Nashville finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPW-D-LWin CupByeMinnesotaSporting KCColoradoFC DallasSeattleLAFCVancouverRSLPortlandLA GalaxySan JoseHouston
66-9612.4%Yes
6520-5-713.01000
6419-7-612.61000
6319-6-712.6100000000000
6219-5-812.510000000000000
6118-7-712.5100000000000000
6018-6-812.5100000000000000
5917-8-712.699000000000000
18-5-912.599000000000000
5817-7-812.597000000000000
18-4-1012.397000000000000
5717-6-912.295111100000000
16-9-712.194111111000000
5616-8-811.989111111111100
17-5-1012.090111111111000
15-11-611.988111111111110
5516-7-911.480222222211111
15-10-711.378222222222111
17-4-1111.581222222211111
5416-6-1010.768334333222211
15-9-810.566444333322221
17-3-1210.667444333322211
5315-8-99.451555544433222
16-5-119.653555444433222
14-11-79.349555544434222
5215-7-108.036666655444332
14-10-87.633666655544332
16-4-128.036666655544332
5115-6-116.221767666554333
14-9-95.919667666555333
13-12-75.618666666555333
16-3-136.121777666554333
5014-8-104.210666555544333
15-5-124.411666655544333
13-11-83.99666555444333
4914-7-112.64445444333222
13-10-92.43444444333222
15-4-132.64444444333222
4814-6-121.41333332222221
13-9-101.31223222222111
12-12-81.21223222222111
4713-8-110.60111111111111
14-5-130.60111111111111
4613-7-120.20001000000000
4513-6-130.10000000000000
4412-8-120.00000000000000
4312-7-130.00000000000000
4212-6-140.0000000000000
4111-8-13No000000000000
0-40No
Total:1.4%7.11.01.01.00.90.90.90.80.70.70.50.50.4
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 3/7100.0*Lottery seed
Portland 1 Nashville 0 +0.9
LAFC 3 Philadelphia 3 -0.1
RSL 1 NY Red Bulls 1 -0.0
Seattle 1 Columbus 1 -0.0
FC Dallas 2 Montreal 2 -0.0
Colorado 2 Orlando 1 +0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 3/14100.0*Lottery seed
Toronto FC vs Nashville+0.7-0.1-1.9
Columbus vs RSL-0.0-0.0+0.1
New England vs Portland-0.0-0.0+0.1
Philadelphia vs San Jose-0.0-0.0+0.1
Miami vs LA Galaxy-0.0-0.0+0.1

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPW-D-L1234567891011121314151617181920212223242526
75-96100
7423-5-49821
7323-4-59900
7222-6-4991
7122-5-59811
7022-4-69811
6921-6-596220
6821-5-695330
6720-7-592440
6620-6-689560
6520-5-78389000
6419-7-6771013000
6319-6-7681317010
6219-5-85917220200
6118-7-747212814000
6018-6-836233326000
5917-8-725243641001000
5817-7-815233671602000
5717-6-98203311221501000
5616-8-831525152721001000
5516-7-9110161829616040000
5416-6-10068172610221801000
5315-8-9033131815264140300000
5215-7-100118917249211801000
5115-6-110004313161525415040100
5014-8-10001187162110222902000
4914-7-1100003212121624617161000
4813-9-10000010641517132331230000
4713-8-11000002110817211020920000
4613-7-1200010421312162319820000
4512-9-110000107416172419820000
4412-8-1200000311081925201031000
4312-7-1300000105291925211241000
4211-9-120000020291925231351000
4111-8-13000010028182524145100
4011-7-140000002818262414510
3910-9-13000000392028241330
3810-8-140000131022302392
3710-7-15000014142731194
369-9-140001720332910
359-8-150000312293719
349-7-1600016224130
338-9-150003144042
328-8-1600193655
318-7-1700052966
307-9-160022276
297-8-170011683
287-7-180001189
276-9-1700793
266-8-1800595
256-7-190397
245-9-180298
235-8-190199
225-7-200199
214-9-190100
204-8-200100
194-7-210100
183-9-200100
173-8-210100
163-7-22100
153-6-230100
0-14100
Total:11112222323343445555667789