Columbus Crew Playoff Chances

Did not play, playoff odds up 2.4 to 17.9%
16 points   5-1-8

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 5/18100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
Minnesota 1 Columbus 0 -3.4
-0.1
+0.5
-0.2
Orlando 0 LA Galaxy 1 +0.9
+0.1
San Jose 4 Chicago 1 +0.9
+0.1
NY Red Bulls 1 Atlanta 0 -0.8
RSL 3 Toronto FC 0 +0.7
Montreal 0 New England 0 +0.6
NY Red Bulls 2 Vancouver 2 +0.6
+0.0
LAFC 4 Montreal 2 +0.3
+0.0
RSL 2 Atlanta 1 +0.2
Orlando 5 Cincinnati 1 -0.2
Houston 2 DC United 1 +0.1
LA Galaxy 0 Colorado 1 +0.9
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 5/25100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
Colorado vs Columbus-3.9-0.5+9.2
-0.1-0.0+0.3
+1.4-0.7-2.4
-0.3-0.0+0.6
Montreal vs RSL-0.9+0.4+1.1
-0.0+0.0+0.1
Toronto FC vs San Jose-0.7+0.5+1.1
-0.0*+0.0+0.1
-0.0+0.0+0.1
Vancouver vs Toronto FC+0.6+0.1-1.0
+0.1-0.0-0.1
DC United vs Chicago+0.4-0.0-1.2
+0.0-0.0-0.1
Cincinnati vs NY Red Bulls+0.6+0.4-0.8
+0.3-0.1-0.2
Chicago vs NYCFC-0.6+0.5+0.8
Atlanta vs Minnesota-0.4+0.3+0.7
Philadelphia vs Portland-0.1+0.1+0.2
-0.0+0.0+0.1
Philadelphia vs Colorado-0.1+0.1+0.1
-0.2+0.1+0.9
New England vs DC United+0.0+0.1-0.1
+0.7-0.1-0.4
-0.1+0.0+0.0
Vancouver vs FC Dallas+0.1-0.0-0.1
Sporting KC vs LA Galaxy+0.1-0.0-0.1
Sporting KC vs Seattle+0.1-0.0-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Columbus finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inSupportersChance will finish regular season at seedWooden
TPW-D-LplayoffsShield123456789101112SpoonCount
7620-0-0In91.4%1000No15,618
68-72In40.6100No32*
6716-3-1In39.5928No38*
6616-2-2In28.1937No89*
6515-4-1In18.588120No259*
6415-3-2In13.489101No514*
6315-2-3In8.180191No1,253*
6214-4-2In3.972262No2,492*
6114-3-3In2.0643240No5,152*
6014-2-4In1.1543970No10,255*
5913-4-3In0.443441110No19,498*
5813-3-4In0.1324818200No35,482*
5712-5-3In0.0234626500No63,343*
5612-4-4In0.0144233910No108,794*
5512-3-5In0.08343916300No182,964*
5411-5-4InNo4254025610No294,058*
5311-4-5100.0%No215373312200No462,113*
5211-3-6100.0No182937205000No705,059*
5110-5-599.9No0419362910200No1,037,188*
5010-4-699.6No0110293519400No1,488,646*
4910-3-798.4No00520352810200No2,073,110*
489-5-695.2No00211293519400No2,801,181*
479-4-788.4No000520352810100No3,675,033*
468-6-676.8No00211293519400No4,683,492*
458-5-760.8No0005203629910No5,778,264*
448-4-842.9No00211303718300No6,940,516*
437-6-726.5No0005213828700No8,081,965*
427-5-814.2No0021234381310No9,119,422*
417-4-96.5No001626432220No9,998,810*
406-6-82.5No0002174233500.0%10,622,078*
396-5-90.8No001936431000.010,918,938*
386-4-100.2No000428491810.010,877,320*
375-6-90.1No00219502630.010,474,703*
365-5-100.0No00111473650.29,760,221*
355-4-110.0No006404490.68,792,631*
344-6-100.0No0033250151.87,632,618*
334-5-110.0No0012353224.26,379,923*
324-4-12OutNo011653308.45,144,224*
313-6-11OutNo0010504014.73,975,899*
303-5-12OutNo006445023.22,944,895*
293-4-13OutNo03375933.22,093,118*
282-6-12OutNo02306844.11,415,066*
272-5-13OutNo01237655.1910,464*
262-4-14OutNo0178265.2555,137*
252-3-15OutNo00128874.2319,682*
241-5-14OutNo089281.7172,006*
231-4-15OutNo059587.485,244*
221-3-16OutNo39791.839,798*
210-5-15OutNo29894.916,719*
200-4-16OutNo19996.96,169*
190-3-17OutNo19998.41,958*
180-2-18OutNo19998.4502
170-1-19OutNo10098.885
160-0-20OutNo010099.815,626
Total:17.9%0.0%00123581218241993.2%150,739,664

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Columbus finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPW-D-LWin CupByePhiladelphiaDC UnitedNYCFCAtlantaToronto FCMontrealNY Red BullsChicagoOrlandoCincinnatiNew England
62-7612.4%Yes
6114-3-312.710000
6014-2-412.7100000000
5913-4-312.899000000000
5813-3-412.4980000000000
5712-5-312.29501111110000
13-2-512.2950111110000
5612-4-412.09011221111000
13-1-611.98911221211000
5512-3-511.28222332221000
11-6-311.48122332222000
5411-5-410.56933554432100
12-2-610.36933554433100
5311-4-59.35445786554100
10-7-39.15345886654100
12-1-79.25245786554100
5211-3-67.938579107765100
10-6-47.837579107765100
9-9-27.3355710108765100
5110-5-56.2236811118876100
11-2-76.1226811118876200
9-8-36.0216711118876200
5010-4-64.5125810118876200
9-7-44.5115710118876200
11-1-84.3115810108776200
4910-3-73.0546997665200
9-6-53.0546997765200
8-9-32.8446997765100
489-5-61.8235775544100
10-2-81.7235665544100
8-8-41.7234665544100
479-4-71.0023443332100
8-7-50.9023443332100
10-1-90.9023443332100
468-6-60.4011222211000
9-3-80.4011222111000
7-9-40.4011221111000
458-5-70.2001111110000
9-2-90.2001111110000
7-8-50.1000111110000
448-4-80.1000000000000
7-7-60.1000000000000
437-6-70.0000000000000
8-3-90.0000000000000
427-5-80.000000000000
417-4-90.000000000000
406-6-80.0000000000
396-5-90.0000000000
386-4-10No0
16-37No
Total:0.3%1.10.30.50.70.70.60.50.50.40.10.00.0
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 5/18100.0*Lottery seed
Minnesota 1 Columbus 0 +0.5
Orlando 0 LA Galaxy 1 -0.1
NY Red Bulls 1 Atlanta 0 +0.1
LAFC 4 Montreal 2 -0.0
Orlando 5 Cincinnati 1 +0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 5/25100.0*Lottery seed
Colorado vs Columbus+0.6+0.0-1.4
Sporting KC vs Seattle+0.1-0.0-0.1
Sporting KC vs LA Galaxy+0.0-0.0-0.1
DC United vs Chicago-0.0-0.0+0.1
Philadelphia vs Portland-0.0+0.0+0.1
Philadelphia vs Colorado-0.0-0.0+0.1

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPW-D-L123456789101112131415161718192021222324
7620-0-09190
7218-2-0100
7017-3-02080
6917-2-13070
6817-1-24753
6716-3-139538
6616-2-228657
6515-4-119691020
6415-3-21375821
6315-2-38721541
6214-4-24681872
6114-3-32621913300
6014-2-41531920600
5913-4-30431727102100
5813-3-403214341442000
5712-5-302393817950000
5612-4-4014537181681100
5512-3-50823215241332000
5411-5-4412410301776010
5311-4-5201553118151112000
5211-3-61082271423164500000
5110-5-500401882820101012000
5010-4-60101032617181624000
4910-3-700051191125217100200
489-5-6000201152519161724000
479-4-7000051181323226102000
468-6-6000201162421141751000
458-5-7000005218142223133000
448-4-80002011724232292000
437-6-700000521917282072000
427-5-80002012924281761000
417-4-90001063152827154100
406-6-80000217203125112000
396-5-9000102102532227100
386-4-10000001415303116300
375-6-9000017223426910
365-5-100000031230351730
355-4-1100001621372881
344-6-1000002123336152
334-5-11000162441244
324-4-1200021640348
313-6-110019344215
303-5-12004264623
293-4-13002184733
282-6-12001114444
272-5-130073855
262-4-14043165
252-3-15022474
241-5-14011782
231-4-15001287
221-3-160892
210-5-150595
200-4-160397
190-3-17298
180-2-18298
170-1-19199
160-0-200100
Total:0000010112133556891011121073