Columbus Crew Playoff Chances

Did not play, playoff odds up 2.5 to 44.1%
36 points   11-3-12

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 8/19100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
Montreal 3 Real Salt Lake 1 -4.3
-0.1
Orlando 1 Columbus 1 -1.3
-0.1
*No
-0.0
Portland 2 NY Red Bulls 0 +1.0
+0.1
+0.0
NYCFC 2 New England 1 +0.8
+0.0
San Jose 2 Philadelphia 2 +0.4
+0.0
Chicago 1 Toronto FC 3 +0.3
+0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Columbus vs Los Angeles+10.9-8.6-16.2
+0.4-0.3-0.5
No-0.0+0.0
+0.4-0.3-0.5
Toronto FC vs Philadelphia+0.4+0.0-1.7
+0.0-0.0-0.1
DC United vs Atlanta+1.2+0.3-0.8
+0.1+0.0-0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 8/25100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
Columbus vs FC Dallas+13.3-6.3-14.2
+0.5-0.3-0.5
+0.4-0.2-0.5
Montreal vs Toronto FC-7.0+1.4+5.8
-0.1+0.0+0.1
-0.1+0.0+0.1
NY Red Bulls vs NYCFC-2.0+1.0+2.7
-0.1+0.1+0.1
-0.1+0.0+0.1
DC United vs New England+1.2+0.7-1.6
+0.1+0.0-0.1
Chicago vs Minnesota-0.5+0.5+1.3
-0.1+0.1+0.2
-0.0+0.0+0.1
Orlando vs Vancouver-0.8+0.4+0.7
-0.1+0.0+0.1
Philadelphia vs Atlanta-0.0+0.4-0.3
+0.1+0.0-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Columbus finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inSupportersChance will finish regular season at seedWooden
TPW-D-LplayoffsShield1234567891011SpoonCount
608-0-0In4.3%56229400No2,922,458
587-1-0100.0%0.51344618200No13,408,070
577-0-1100.00.10184530600No19,730,066
566-2-0100.00.001037391310No39,333,518
556-1-199.90.004254425300No113,077,493
546-0-299.70.001133938800No79,625,129
5-3-099.60.001133938900No64,152,590
535-2-198.70.000629461810No270,038,128
525-1-296.1No002184630400No371,025,282
4-4-095.1No002164533500No63,674,463
514-3-189.9No01838431000No349,182,790
5-0-390.7No0193942900No165,963,689
504-2-281.4No00328501800No702,317,722
3-5-077.6No00224512210No39,478,968
494-1-368.6No001175130100No613,025,291
3-4-164.9No001145033200No264,459,380
483-3-251.1No0084345400No692,761,143
4-0-452.8No0084443400No195,545,481
2-6-045.7No0064049500No14,949,531
473-2-336.5No0033355900No885,434,729
2-5-131.6No00229571110No117,529,696
463-1-422.3No001215917100No551,323,783
2-4-219.7No00119592020No376,099,139
1-7-016.2No0116602220No3,167,813
452-3-311.1No00115529400No626,231,160
3-0-511.6No00115529400No133,562,806
1-6-18.7No0095333500No28,414,445
442-2-45.1No0054640900No571,132,228
1-5-23.9No00441421210No106,716,510
0-8-02.8No034044131No289,037
432-1-51.8No00231471820No269,988,394
1-4-31.5No0129472020No217,087,570
0-7-11.0No0126472330No2,892,141
421-3-40.5No0018463150No257,828,856
2-0-60.5No0017463150No51,577,280
0-6-20.3No0015443570No12,377,532
411-2-50.1No0093841120No178,454,178
0-5-30.1No0073444140No29,543,501
401-1-60.0No0326482300.0%66,461,780
0-4-40.0No032448250No42,850,383
390-3-50.0No0114463810.038,578,305
1-0-70.0No0114463810.010,236,327
380-2-60.0No007385320.021,001,669
370-1-7OutNo02266650.06,285,852
360-0-8OutNo011573120.01,770,090
Total:44.1%0.0%0014122634155100.0%8,681,506,396

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Columbus finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPW-D-LWin CupByeToronto FCNYCFCChicagoAtlantaNY Red BullsMontrealNew EnglandPhiladelphiaOrlandoDC United
608-0-012.3%96012110000
587-1-011.380046441000
577-0-110.26306129720000
566-2-09.0470101513104000
556-1-17.42801120171450000
546-0-25.81401023201660000
5-3-05.7140132119166000
535-2-14.3601122191660000
525-1-23.020820171350000
4-4-02.8201017161250000
514-3-11.81061412940000
5-0-31.910515141040000
504-2-21.1004109620000
3-5-00.900487520000
494-1-30.600265310000
3-4-10.500254310000
483-3-20.300132100000
4-0-40.300133100000
2-6-00.20012210000
473-2-30.100011000000
2-5-10.100011000000
463-1-40.000000000000
2-4-20.000000000000
1-7-00.0000000000
452-3-30.00000000000
3-0-50.00000000000
1-6-10.0000000000
442-2-40.00000000000
1-5-20.0000000000
0-8-00.00000
432-1-50.0000000000
1-4-30.00000000
0-7-10.00000
421-3-40.000000
2-0-60.00000
0-6-2No000
411-2-5No0000
0-5-3No0
36-40No
Total:0.9%1.50.12.15.24.53.21.20.10.10.00.0
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 8/19100.0*Lottery seed
Montreal 3 Real Salt Lake 1 +0.1
Orlando 1 Columbus 1 +0.1
Portland 2 NY Red Bulls 0 -0.0
NYCFC 2 New England 1 -0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Columbus vs Los Angeles-0.7+0.5+1.0
Toronto FC vs Philadelphia-0.0+0.0+0.1
DC United vs Atlanta-0.1-0.0+0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 8/25100.0*Lottery seed
Columbus vs FC Dallas-0.8+0.4+0.9
Montreal vs Toronto FC+0.2-0.0-0.2
NY Red Bulls vs NYCFC+0.1-0.1-0.1
Chicago vs Minnesota+0.0-0.0-0.1
DC United vs New England-0.1-0.0+0.1
Los Angeles vs San Jose-0.0-0.0+0.1

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPW-D-L12345678910111213141516171819202122
608-0-04062029400
587-1-01034146018200
577-0-100171450300600
566-2-000913703901310
556-1-10021241440250300
546-0-200011223903808000
5-3-000111213803809000
535-2-100004228146018010
525-1-200011153461300400
4-4-000011142451330500
514-3-10000633624301000
5-0-3000063373420900
504-2-20000122354911800
3-5-0000112045012210
494-1-30000110747430100
3-4-1000019546333200
483-3-2000035368444000
4-0-4000035368434000
2-6-000002432848600
473-2-300013211253101000
2-5-100002181155131000
463-1-40000191254212000
2-4-20000181153233000
1-7-000061052275000
452-3-300038443491000
3-0-50003945349100
1-6-1000274137122000
442-2-4000153041194000
1-5-2000032641235100
0-8-00032241267100
432-1-500002153832112000
1-4-30001133633142000
0-7-1001103236173000
421-3-400052437257100
2-0-600062538247100
0-6-2000420362810100
411-2-50002123134173000
0-5-3000192836215000
401-1-60004193630101000
0-4-400316343213200
390-3-500172437256000
1-0-700172538235000
380-2-6000213333614100
370-1-70004214128500
360-0-8001933431310
Total:00001041102215291473210000