Columbus Crew Playoff Chances

Beat Colorado 2-1, playoff odds up 1.3 to 99.8%
47 points   13-8-9

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 9/22100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Average seed
Columbus 2 Colorado 1 +1.1
+0.8
+0.2
Montreal 1 NYCFC 1 +0.3
+0.1
New England 2 Chicago 2 +0.2
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Philadelphia vs Sporting KC-0.5+0.1+0.4
-0.1+0.0+0.1
NYCFC vs Chicago-0.2+0.2+0.5
-0.1+0.1+0.2
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 9/29100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Average seed
Columbus vs Philadelphia+0.2+0.0-0.5
+1.1-0.5-2.5
+0.3-0.1-0.5
DC United vs Montreal*-0.0+0.1-0.1
Minnesota vs NYCFC+0.3+0.1-0.3
+0.1+0.0-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Columbus finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inSupportersChance will finish regular season at seedWooden
TPW-D-LplayoffsShield123456789101112SpoonCount
594-0-0InNo7822No3,139,494
573-1-0InNo5248No7,931,413
563-0-1InNo39610No11,298,879
552-2-0InNo24751No7,255,465
542-1-1InNo13843No19,731,061
532-0-2InNo682120No12,652,364
1-3-0InNo486100No2,844,465
521-2-1InNo278200No11,100,304
511-1-2InNo060372No13,606,733
0-4-0InNo064341No405,262
501-0-399.9%No0345790No5,180,413
0-3-1100.0No415270No2,032,431
490-2-299.3No22601810No3,594,610
480-1-397.0No7543630No2,654,794
470-0-488.6No13355110No710,226
Total:99.8%No166417300No104,137,914

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Columbus finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPW-D-LWin CupByeNYCFCPhiladelphiaMontrealDC UnitedNew EnglandToronto FC
594-0-011.7%78172300
573-1-010.952365610
563-0-110.43904012810
552-2-09.92415771010
542-1-19.413259141010
532-0-28.76460191010
1-3-08.7437281210
521-2-18.12569141010
511-1-27.1066716900
0-4-07.2057581010
501-0-35.4076314600
0-3-15.956911800
490-2-24.456010500
480-1-32.95485300
470-0-41.4329100
Total:8.5%15.83.156.412.48.70.60.0
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 9/22100.0*Lottery seed
Columbus 2 Colorado 1 -0.4
Montreal 1 NYCFC 1 -0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
NYCFC vs Chicago+0.1-0.1-0.3
Philadelphia vs Sporting KC+0.2-0.0-0.1
LA Galaxy vs Seattle-0.0-0.0+0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 9/29100.0*Lottery seed
Columbus vs Philadelphia-0.6+0.3+1.2
Minnesota vs NYCFC-0.2-0.0+0.2
Seattle vs Colorado+0.0-0.0-0.1
DC United vs Montreal-0.0-0.0+0.1

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPW-D-L1234567891011121314151617181920212223
594-0-06810220
573-1-02725435
563-0-11226481300
552-2-0321443110
542-1-1112295521
532-0-20615678400
1-3-00412746400
521-2-10247471300
511-1-20016063211
0-4-0006443010
501-0-3003335455000
0-3-104125034000
490-2-2022059414100
480-1-370543332100
470-0-410332545510
Total:6102044314120000