Columbus Crew Playoff Chances

Did not play, playoff odds down 0.3 to 71%
4 points   1-1-0

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 3/7100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
New England 1 Chicago 1 +0.4
Colorado 2 Orlando 1 +0.3
+0.1
-0.1
+0.0
Toronto FC 1 NYCFC 0 -0.1
DC United 2 Miami 1 -0.1
Seattle 1 Columbus 1 +0.1
-0.2
-0.1
Atlanta 2 Cincinnati 1 -0.1
-0.1
FC Dallas 2 Montreal 2 +0.1
RSL 1 NY Red Bulls 1 +0.1
LAFC 3 Philadelphia 3 +0.1
San Jose 2 Minnesota 5 -0.2
Sporting KC 4 Houston 0 -0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 3/14100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
Columbus vs RSL+5.2-4.1-8.5
+0.7-0.6-1.1
+1.7-1.5-2.5
-0.5+0.3+0.8
+0.5-0.4-0.8
Philadelphia vs San Jose-0.5+0.4+0.7
-0.1+0.0+0.1
-0.0+0.0+0.1
New England vs Portland-0.5+0.4+0.7
-0.1+0.0+0.1
*+0.0+0.0-0.1
-0.0+0.0+0.1
Miami vs LA Galaxy-0.5+0.3+0.7
-0.1+0.0+0.1
-0.0+0.0+0.1
Toronto FC vs Nashville-0.4+0.3+0.7
-0.1+0.1+0.1
-0.1+0.1+0.1
-0.0+0.0+0.1
NYCFC vs FC Dallas-0.5+0.3+0.5
-0.1+0.0+0.1
+0.1+0.0-0.1
Minnesota vs NY Red Bulls+0.3*-0.0-0.7
+0.1*-0.0-0.1
-0.1+0.2+0.1
+0.0-0.0-0.1
Atlanta vs Sporting KC-0.3+0.2+0.5
-0.1+0.1+0.1
*+0.0+0.2-0.2
-0.0+0.0+0.1
Orlando vs Chicago-0.1+0.4-0.1
Cincinnati vs DC United-0.1+0.4-0.1
*+0.0+0.0-0.1
+0.0+0.0-0.1
Vancouver vs Colorado+0.1+0.1-0.3
Houston vs Seattle+0.1+0.0-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Columbus finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inSupportersChance will finish regular season at seedWooden
TPW-D-LplayoffsShield12345678910111213SpoonCount
80-100In100.0%100No9,109*
7923-6-3In99.91000No846*
77-78In99.7100No4,146*
7622-6-4In99.91000No4,566*
7522-5-5In99.71000No7,655*
7422-4-6In99.51000No12,873*
7321-6-5In99.21000No20,852*
7221-5-6In98.81000No32,789*
7120-7-5In98.31000No51,492*
7020-6-6In97.2991No78,193*
6920-5-7In95.89910No116,413*
6819-7-6In93.89820No168,898*
6719-6-7In90.79730No242,623*
6619-5-8In86.696400No339,351*
6518-7-7In81.194600No463,528*
6418-6-8In74.091900No623,248*
6317-8-7In65.3871200No823,290*
6217-7-8In54.9821710No1,060,065*
6117-6-9In43.77622200No1,340,665*
6016-8-8In32.26828400No1,663,033*
5916-7-9In21.659356000No2,023,603*
5816-6-10In12.84840111000No2,410,548*
5715-8-9In6.43743173000No2,821,997*
5615-7-10In2.72743246100No3,237,808*
5515-6-11100.0%0.9184030102000No3,640,140*
5414-8-10100.00.2103335174100No4,018,364*
5314-7-11100.00.0523362592000No4,340,118*
5213-9-10100.00.021431311641000No4,602,406*
5113-8-1199.80.0172333241020000No4,786,842*
5013-7-1298.9No031428301861000No4,883,738*
4912-9-1196.3No017203126123000No4,885,756*
4812-8-1289.8No0021125312182000No4,787,627*
4712-7-1377.3No0015152829165100No4,599,872*
4611-9-1258.9No00017203025123000No4,330,229*
4511-8-1338.2No0003112430218200No3,994,605*
4411-7-1420.7No0001515282916510No3,612,377*
4310-9-139.2No0002821312611200.0%3,199,620*
4210-8-143.3No000312273220610.02,776,996*
4110-7-151.0No000161832291220.02,356,192*
409-9-140.2No00021027352150.11,960,117*
399-8-150.0No001519353190.51,597,044*
389-7-160.0No0002113138171.81,269,877*
378-9-150.0No00162443265.0989,954*
368-8-160.0No000317433711.0753,159*
358-7-17OutNo00111404819.8558,910*
347-9-16OutNo006345931.2406,593*
337-8-17OutNo0003276943.8289,115*
327-7-18OutNo02217856.0199,652*
316-9-17OutNo001158467.2135,236*
306-8-18OutNo00118976.688,783*
296-7-19OutNo0079383.557,359*
285-9-18OutNo059589.135,523*
275-8-19OutNo039793.121,355*
265-7-20OutNo029895.612,480*
254-9-19OutNo19997.37,251*
244-8-20OutNo19998.44,073*
234-7-21OutNo010099.22,112*
223-9-20OutNo010099.21,154*
213-8-21OutNo10099.8562*
203-7-22OutNo010099.6246*
4-19OutNo100Yes8,520*
Total:71.0%5.9%131211109887655431.1%86,771,548

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Columbus finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPW-D-LWin CupByeAtlantaToronto FCNY Red BullsMontrealDC UnitedChicagoPhiladelphiaNew EnglandCincinnatiOrlandoMiamiNYCFC
67-10012.5%Yes
6619-5-812.510000
6518-7-712.610000
6418-6-812.51000000000
6317-8-712.510000000000000
6217-7-812.5100000000000000
6117-6-912.6100000000000000
16-9-712.6100000000000000
6016-8-812.5100000000000000
17-5-1012.5100000000000000
5916-7-912.5100000000000000
15-10-712.5100000000000000
5816-6-1012.599000000000000
15-9-812.599000000000000
5715-8-912.497000000000000
16-5-1112.497000000000000
5615-7-1012.394111110000000
14-10-812.393111111100000
16-4-1212.394111110000000
5515-6-1112.088111111111111
14-9-912.087111111111111
13-12-712.088111111111111
5414-8-1011.578222222222111
15-5-1211.580222222211111
13-11-811.577222222222111
5314-7-1110.765444433322222
13-10-910.663444433333222
15-4-1310.866343333322222
5213-9-109.346555544433332
14-6-129.649555544433332
12-12-89.548555544433332
5113-8-117.831666655544443
14-5-138.033666655444433
12-11-97.730666655544443
5013-7-126.017666655544443
12-10-105.716666655544443
14-4-146.118666655544443
4912-9-113.97555554444433
13-6-134.18555554444433
4812-8-122.33344433333322
13-5-142.33344433333322
4712-7-131.11222222212111
4611-9-120.40111111111111
4511-8-130.10000000000000
4411-7-140.00000000000000
4310-9-130.00000000000000
4210-8-140.0000000000000
4110-7-150.0000000000000
409-9-14No00000
4-39No
Total:5.8%36.21.92.02.02.01.71.51.51.41.41.31.21.0
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 3/7100.0*Lottery seed
New England 1 Chicago 1 -0.1
Colorado 2 Orlando 1 -0.0
Atlanta 2 Cincinnati 1 +0.0
Toronto FC 1 NYCFC 0 +0.0
DC United 2 Miami 1 +0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 3/14100.0*Lottery seed
Columbus vs RSL-1.0+0.8+1.7
Atlanta vs Sporting KC+0.1-0.1-0.1
Minnesota vs NY Red Bulls-0.0-0.0+0.1
Toronto FC vs Nashville+0.1-0.1-0.1
Philadelphia vs San Jose+0.1-0.1-0.1
New England vs Portland+0.1-0.1-0.1
Miami vs LA Galaxy+0.0-0.0-0.1
Cincinnati vs DC United+0.0-0.1+0.0
Orlando vs Chicago+0.0-0.1+0.0

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPW-D-L1234567891011121314151617181920212223242526
83-100100
8225-3-4991
80-81100
7923-6-31000
7823-5-41000
7723-4-51000
7622-6-410000
7522-5-510000
7422-4-610000
7321-6-59910
7221-5-69910
7120-7-59810
7020-6-69721
6920-5-7963100
6819-7-6945200
6719-6-7917300
6619-5-88794000
6518-7-781136000
6418-6-874179000
6317-8-76522120000
6217-7-85527161100
6117-6-944322112000
6016-8-832362534000
5916-7-92237296600000
5816-6-101335291110010000
5715-8-96312617151300000
5615-7-103242023204501000
5515-6-11117122722910120000
5414-8-100106271916152401000
5314-7-110522113231968020000
5213-9-100201462518141424010000
5113-8-110107221112118791200000
5013-7-120030135241515153501000
4912-9-110010611992217911130000
4812-8-1200020113221218165820000
4712-7-13000105015523151314720000
4611-9-12000010711992117157200000
4511-8-13000030113221220179310000
4411-7-14000010501551522201141000
4310-9-1300002081716242213510000
4210-8-14000030271624241562000
4110-7-15000010027162525166200
409-9-1400000002717262516610
399-8-15000000281827251440
389-7-160000039213024102
378-9-1500014132632205
368-8-1600001619333011
358-7-17000211293820
347-9-1600015214131
337-8-170002144044
327-7-18000183556
316-9-170042867
306-8-180022177
296-7-190011683
285-9-18001089
275-8-1900793
265-7-200496
254-9-19397
244-8-20298
234-7-21199
223-9-20199
213-8-210100
203-7-220100
4-19100
Total:67575646454534333333322211