MLS Playoff Chances

Houston +15.0, DC United -15.7
Points
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
Chance will make playoffsWin CupSupporters ShieldChance will finish regular season at seedWooden Spoon
SaturdayPGW-D-LGD%Change%Change%Change123456789101112131415Avg.Change%ChangeRPIStrengthSunday
MinnesotaWLAFC 2-01013-1-0494.1%+6.78.5%+1.713.5%+6.02718131086543221103.8+1.110.1%-0.28.486Minnesota United FC
ColumbusWNY Red Bulls 3-01013-1-0591.8+10.98.1+2.816.1+9.125171310865433221104.1+1.810.1-0.31.506Columbus Crew
VancouverWDallas 3-1722-1-0491.5+10.37.7+2.110.7+5.62217131097654322114.3+1.440.2-0.518.486Vancouver Whitecaps
Miami CFWDC United 3-1103-1-1889.5+10.47.4+2.412.0+6.120161310976543321104.6+1.580.1-0.37.511Inter Miami CF
PortlandLHouston 0-1712-1-1384.8-2.55.8-0.95.1-2.312121211109876543215.5-0.560.4+0.110.475Portland Timbers
TorontoLNYCFC 1-2712-1-1178.9-11.65.0-2.55.5-9.710101010988766543216.1-1.720.4+0.317.471Toronto FC
MontrealLChicago 3-4712-1-1178.9-6.15.0-1.05.6-3.810111010988766543216.1-0.790.4+0.212.456CF Montreal
St LouisTLA Galaxy 3-3611-3-0278.2-0.24.6-0.43.0-0.789101099887654326.3-0.190.9+0.19.465Saint Louis City SC
LA GalaxyTSt Louis 3-3611-3-0278.2-3.14.6-0.93.0-1.689101099887655326.3-0.560.9+0.34.463Los Angeles Galaxy
Sporting KCWSan Jose 2-1611-3-0175.7+12.14.2+1.22.6+1.1789999988765426.6+1.131.0-1.215.465Sporting Kansas City
Cincinnati521-2-0173.1+0.34.2+0.24.1-0.08999988876654326.8+0.100.7-0.05.474at New EnglandFC Cincinnati
NY Red BullsLColumbus 0-3712-1-1-168.4-15.73.5-2.42.9-5.96788888887765437.3-1.870.9+0.72.436New York Red Bulls
Atlanta331-0-1267.1+0.13.5+0.23.1-0.16788888877765437.4+0.061.1-0.013.462OrlandoAtlanta United
ColoradoTSeattle 1-1511-2-1-265.8+2.02.9-0.11.4-0.1467788999887657.6+0.092.1-0.211.429Colorado Rapids
HoustonWPortland 1-0421-1-1063.8+15.02.8+1.01.3+0.6456788899888757.8+1.282.5-2.76.446Houston Dynamo
RSL411-1-2063.4-0.02.7-0.21.2-0.1356788899988757.9-0.082.5+0.219.448Real Salt Lake
NashvilleWCharlotte 2-1611-3-0162.8+13.03.0+1.22.1+1.04677888888776547.9+1.241.4-1.73.461Nashville FC
DC UnitedLMiami CF 1-3511-2-1057.8-15.72.5-1.61.5-2.83566778888887658.4-1.601.8+1.116.448DC United
PhiladelphiaTAustin 2-2320-3-0053.4+1.22.2+0.21.3-0.13456677888888768.8+0.112.4-0.426.446Philadelphia Union
ChicagoWMontreal 4-3411-1-2-150.4+12.51.9+0.81.0+0.52345677888999879.1+1.122.8-3.020.442Chicago Fire FC
AustinTPhiladelphia 2-2310-3-1-149.3-2.71.6-0.40.4-0.22345677899101111109.1-0.285.1+0.725.438Austin FC
CharlotteLNashville 1-2411-1-2-148.9-11.51.8-0.81.0-1.12345667888999979.2-1.073.0+1.321.432Charlotte FC
SeattleTColorado 1-1220-2-1-146.7-3.61.5-0.40.5-0.22344567899101112119.3-0.355.9+1.128.429Seattle Sounders
DallasLVancouver 1-3311-0-3-343.3-15.01.3-1.30.3-0.71234567789101213139.6-1.366.7+3.723.422FC Dallas
LAFCLMinnesota 0-2411-1-2-441.6-13.11.2-1.00.3-0.51234556789111213149.7-1.177.4+3.722.395Los Angeles FC
NYCFCWToronto 2-1311-0-3-333.4+12.20.9+0.50.3+0.2122344567891012131410.7+1.156.6-7.324.411New York City FC
Orlando120-1-2-623.9+0.70.6+0.10.2-0.0011223456781013162211.6+0.0111.8-0.614.400at AtlantaOrlando City SC
San JoseLSporting KC 1-2010-0-4-623.7-5.90.5-0.30.1-0.101122345681013172911.3-0.5017.7+4.927.395San Jose Earthquakes
New England020-0-3-621.6-0.60.5+0.00.1-0.0011223345681013172511.8-0.1213.3+0.229.400CincinnatiNew England Revolution

Monte Carlo simulation: Does not prove mathematical Clinching or Elimination
Tie Breakers:
1. Wins
2. Goal Differential
3. Goals Scored.
Direct Comments/Corrections to u/bgix in Reddit

Big Games

Who should we root for?   Explain

Week of 3/9
Orlando 2 Minnesota 3
Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon
Minnesota+7.3
+1.3
+3.0
-0.7
Atlanta+0.7
Nashville+0.8
DC United+0.7
Philadelphia+0.8
Chicago+0.8
Orlando-9.2
-0.6
-0.7
+2.3
NYCFC 1 Portland 2
Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon
Portland+6.9
+1.2
+2.5
-0.7
NYCFC-7.1
-0.3
-0.3
+3.9
RSL 1 Colorado 2
Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon
Colorado+12.1
+1.0
+0.8
-3.2
RSL-8.8
-1.2
-1.8
+1.0
San Jose 0 Vancouver 2
Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon
Vancouver+10.5
+1.1
+1.4
-1.9
San Jose-9.9
-0.6
-0.3
+3.7
NY Red Bulls 2 Dallas 1
Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon
Sporting KC+0.3
NY Red Bulls+4.8
+0.7
+1.8
-0.3
Colorado+0.4
Houston+0.4
Austin+0.4
Seattle+0.4
Dallas-4.0
-0.5
-0.6
+0.7
LAFC+0.3
San Jose+0.3
Miami CF 2 Montreal 3
Sun100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon
Miami CF-6.0
-1.3
-5.3
+0.2
Montreal+8.7
+1.5
+4.4
-0.5
Atlanta 4 New England 1
Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon
Atlanta+6.3
+0.4
+0.4
-2.0
New England-4.5
-0.2
-0.2
+2.1
Columbus 2 Chicago 1
Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon
Columbus+5.6
+0.7
+1.4
-0.5
Chicago-4.8
-0.3
-0.4
+1.1
Nashville 2 LA Galaxy 2
Sun100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon
LA Galaxy+0.1
-0.3
Atlanta+0.4
Nashville-4.5
-0.4
-0.5
+0.7
DC United+0.3
Philadelphia+0.4
Chicago+0.4
Orlando+0.4
New England+0.3
Austin 2 St Louis 2
Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon
St Louis+0.2
-0.4
Austin-4.2
-0.4
-0.3
+1.0
Toronto 1 Charlotte 0
Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon
Toronto+4.2
+0.8
+2.5
-0.2
Charlotte-4.0
-0.6
-1.3
+0.3
LAFC 0 Sporting KC 0
Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon
Sporting KC+0.3
-0.1
-0.2
LAFC-4.2
-0.5
-0.5
+0.7
Cincinnati 0 DC United 0
Sun100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon
Cincinnati-4.0
-0.5
-1.3
+0.3
DC United+0.6
-0.1
Philadelphia vs SeattleIf winner is:HomeDrawAway
Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon
St Louis78.6*78.277.4
4.6*4.64.5
LA Galaxy78.5*78.277.3
4.6*4.64.5
Sporting KC76.1*75.774.8
4.2*4.24.1
Cincinnati72.673.473.8
4.24.34.3
NY Red Bulls67.968.869.2
3.53.53.6
Atlanta66.667.567.9
3.53.63.6
Colorado66.2*65.864.7
3.0*2.92.9
Houston64.363.862.8
RSL63.8*63.462.3
2.8*2.72.7
Nashville62.363.263.7
2.93.03.0
DC United57.358.358.7
Philadelphia59.648.543.7
2.61.81.5
1.80.90.6
1.53.04.2
Chicago49.850.851.2
Austin49.8*49.348.2
Charlotte48.449.449.8
Seattle42.146.858.0
1.21.52.3
0.30.40.9
7.25.63.0
Dallas43.843.342.2
LAFC42.041.540.5
7.37.37.4
NYCFC32.933.834.2
6.66.66.8
San Jose24.023.722.9
17.617.617.8
Week of 3/16
Dallas 1 Vancouver 3
Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon
Vancouver+7.0
+1.3
+3.0
-0.4
Dallas-9.6
-0.8
-0.6
+1.7
DC United 1 Miami CF 3
Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon
Miami CF+7.7
+1.4
+3.6
-0.3
DC United-8.3
-1.1
-2.0
+0.5
Houston 1 Portland 0
Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon
Portland-3.0
-0.7
-1.8
Houston+7.0
+0.5
+0.3
-1.8
Nashville 2 Charlotte 1
Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon
Nashville+6.8
+0.4
+0.4
-1.1
Charlotte-5.1
-0.5
-0.6
+0.5
Chicago 4 Montreal 3
Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon
Montreal-3.3
-0.7
-2.2
Chicago+6.7
+0.3
+0.3
-2.0
NYCFC 2 Toronto 1
Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon
Toronto-3.0
-0.8
-3.7
NYCFC+6.2
+0.2
-4.4
Sporting KC 2 San Jose 1
Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon
Sporting KC+5.9
+0.6
+0.5
-0.9
San Jose-4.2
-0.2
+2.1
Austin 2 Philadelphia 2
Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon
Sporting KC+0.4
Colorado+0.4
Houston+0.4
RSL+0.4
Philadelphia-0.1
-0.1
-0.2
Austin-4.7
-0.4
-0.2
+0.9
Seattle+0.4
Dallas+0.4
LAFC+0.4
San Jose+0.4
Seattle 1 Colorado 1
Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon
Colorado+0.6
-0.1
-0.2
Seattle-4.8
-0.4
-0.2
+1.0
Columbus 3 NY Red Bulls 0
Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon
Columbus+4.6
+0.8
+2.1
-0.2
NY Red Bulls-3.0
-0.7
-2.1
Minnesota 2 LAFC 0
Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon
Minnesota+3.3
+0.7
+1.9
LAFC-4.4
-0.4
-0.3
+0.8
LA Galaxy 3 St Louis 3
Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon
St Louis+0.5
-0.2
LA Galaxy-3.0
-0.6
-1.2
Atlanta vs OrlandoIf winner is:HomeDrawAway
Sun100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon
Atlanta72.862.657.3
4.23.02.6
4.12.21.7
0.71.52.1
Orlando20.024.234.1
0.40.51.0
0.10.10.4
13.911.36.8
New England vs CincinnatiHomeDrawAway
Sun100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon
Cincinnati67.772.681.3
3.54.15.4
2.83.66.3
1.10.70.3
San Jose18.317.416.9
New England27.618.815.3
0.70.40.3
0.20.10.1
9.314.917.9

* A starred outcome could have no effect or just a really small effect. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Thank you bgix for adding this league.