Real Salt Lake Playoff Chances

Beat Atlanta 2-1, playoff odds up 10.5 to 69.4%
19 points   6-1-6

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 5/18100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
RSL 2 Atlanta 1 +8.5
+0.6
+0.1
-0.2
+0.5
RSL 3 Toronto FC 0 +8.5
+0.4
-0.5
+0.5
San Jose 4 Chicago 1 -1.1
-0.1
Orlando 0 LA Galaxy 1 -1.1
-0.2
-0.1
Sporting KC 1 Vancouver 1 +1.0
Minnesota 1 Columbus 0 -0.9
-0.0
LA Galaxy 0 Colorado 1 +0.7
+0.2
+0.1
+0.1
Houston 2 DC United 1 -0.3
-0.1
FC Dallas 1 LAFC 1 +0.3
+0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 5/25100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
Montreal vs RSL-5.7-0.7+9.8
-0.6-0.1+1.0
-0.1-0.0+0.2
+0.1-0.0-0.1
-0.4-0.1+0.6
Philadelphia vs Portland+0.5-0.2-2.2
+0.0*-0.0-0.1
+0.0-0.0-0.1
Toronto FC vs San Jose+0.7+0.0-1.9
+0.0*+0.0-0.1
+0.0+0.0-0.1
Sporting KC vs Seattle-1.1+0.5+1.1
+0.0+0.0-0.1
Vancouver vs Toronto FC-1.0+0.5+1.0
Atlanta vs Minnesota+0.5-0.1-1.3
+0.1*-0.0-0.2
+0.0-0.0-0.1
Minnesota vs Houston-0.7+0.4+0.8
-0.0+0.1*-0.0
Sporting KC vs LA Galaxy-0.7+0.6+0.8
+0.1+0.0-0.2
Vancouver vs FC Dallas+0.0+0.6-0.7
+0.1+0.0-0.1
Philadelphia vs Colorado+0.0*-0.0-0.2
Colorado vs Columbus-0.1+0.1+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well RSL finishes out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inSupportersChance will finish regular season at seedWooden
TPW-D-LplayoffsShield123456789101112SpoonCount
8221-0-0In99.9%1000No15,618
77-78InYes100No21*
7618-3-0In96.4964No28*
7518-2-1In96.5964No85
7418-1-2In89.890100No226*
7317-3-1In84.18416No496*
7217-2-2In80.58119No1,213*
7116-4-1In74.175250No2,365*
7016-3-2In64.465341No5,203*
6916-2-3In57.258411No10,319*
6815-4-2In47.4494920No19,657*
6715-3-3In38.5415630No37,165*
6615-2-4In29.9336160No65,734*
6514-4-3In21.8256590No111,506*
6414-3-4In14.919671410No187,308*
6313-5-3In9.313662010No300,033*
6213-4-4In5.486226300No465,459*
6113-3-5In2.755634500No705,939*
6012-5-4In1.234840900No1,031,313*
5912-4-5In0.4138451410No1,464,559*
5812-3-6In0.11294721200No2,025,147*
5711-5-5In0.00204628500No2,705,340*
5611-4-6In0.00134136910No3,525,310*
5510-6-5100.0%0.007344115200No4,457,834*
5410-5-6100.00.004254323400No5,470,175*
5310-4-7100.0No02174132810No6,532,069*
529-6-699.9No0110353815200No7,578,951*
519-5-799.8No005264223400No8,539,823*
509-4-899.2No021739329100No9,359,399*
498-6-797.6No0193339162000No9,963,795*
488-5-894.0No0042341256000No10,308,082*
478-4-987.1No00214373411100No10,362,922*
467-6-876.0No0017293920400No10,111,291*
457-5-961.3No0031939299100No9,566,464*
447-4-1044.8No00111333616300No8,792,692*
436-6-929.2No005243925710No7,840,097*
426-5-1016.8No0021535341320No6,774,491*
416-4-118.5No001828392140No5,673,283*
405-6-103.7No00419383180No4,586,651*
395-5-111.4No0011133391510.0%3,593,698*
385-4-120.5No00625432420.02,718,828*
374-6-110.1No00217423540.01,983,475*
364-5-120.0No0110374570.21,396,259*
354-4-130.0No0053053120.7944,295*
343-6-120.0No0022157192.1613,360*
333-5-130.0No0011458274.9382,614*
323-4-14OutNo00955369.8228,410*
312-6-13OutNo005504516.9129,636*
302-5-14OutNo02435526.569,825*
292-4-15OutNo01366337.035,769*
281-6-14OutNo00297048.217,202*
271-5-15OutNo0227859.97,619*
261-4-16OutNo168472.23,211*
251-3-17OutNo128879.01,202*
240-5-16OutNo89286.7414*
230-4-17OutNo39791.1124*
220-3-18OutNo89289.237*
210-2-19OutNo100Yes5
190-0-21OutNo010099.315,618
Total:69.4%0.1%037121517151296310.1%150,739,664

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well RSL finishes out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPW-D-LWin CupByeLAFCSeattleHoustonLA GalaxyMinnesotaFC DallasPortlandSporting KCSan JoseVancouverColorado
69-8212.3%Yes
6815-4-212.01000
6715-3-312.510000000
6615-2-412.310000000000
6514-4-312.5100000000000
6414-3-412.59900000000000
6313-5-312.59900010000000
6213-4-412.49700011000000
6113-3-512.39501121100000
6012-5-412.09101132100000
5912-4-511.88502253210000
11-7-311.78402253210000
5812-3-611.47703474310000
11-6-411.37603474310000
5711-5-510.867046106411100
12-2-710.866046106411100
5611-4-610.155068138521110
10-7-410.053068138521110
5510-6-59.04108101610621110
11-3-79.14208101610621110
5410-5-68.02909121812832210
11-2-88.13009121812832210
9-8-47.727010121912832210
5310-4-76.819010131913832210
9-7-56.618010132013832210
11-1-96.718010131913832210
529-6-65.410010132013832210
10-3-85.611010131913832210
8-9-45.29010132013832210
519-5-74.3509121812832210
8-8-54.0509121811732210
10-2-94.3509121812832210
509-4-83.1208101510632210
8-7-62.920710159622210
498-6-72.01057117522110
9-3-92.01057117522110
488-5-81.2004585311110
7-8-61.1003574311110
9-2-101.2004575311110
478-4-90.7002353211100
7-7-70.6002343211000
467-6-80.3001121100000
457-5-90.1000111000000
447-4-100.0000000000000
436-6-90.000000000000
426-5-100.000000000000
416-4-110.00000000000
405-6-100.00000000
395-5-110.0000
19-38No
Total:2.8%10.30.13.74.87.44.73.01.20.80.80.50.0
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 5/18100.0*Lottery seed
RSL 2 Atlanta 1 -1.0
RSL 3 Toronto FC 0 -1.0
LA Galaxy 0 Colorado 1 -0.1
Orlando 0 LA Galaxy 1 +0.1
San Jose 4 Chicago 1 +0.1
Sporting KC 1 Vancouver 1 -0.1
Minnesota 1 Columbus 0 +0.0
Houston 2 DC United 1 +0.0
FC Dallas 1 LAFC 1 -0.0
NY Red Bulls 2 Vancouver 2 -0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 5/25100.0*Lottery seed
Montreal vs RSL+0.8+0.1-1.3
Atlanta vs Minnesota-0.1-0.0+0.1
Philadelphia vs Portland-0.0+0.0+0.1
Vancouver vs FC Dallas-0.0-0.0+0.1
Toronto FC vs San Jose-0.0-0.0+0.1
Minnesota vs Houston+0.1-0.1-0.0
Sporting KC vs LA Galaxy-0.0-0.0+0.1

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPW-D-L123456789101112131415161718192021222324
8221-0-01000
77-78100
7618-3-0964
7518-2-1964
7418-1-290100
7317-3-184016
7217-2-280019
7116-4-1740250
7016-3-2641341
6916-2-3571411
6815-4-247249020
6715-3-339256030
6615-2-430361060
6514-4-322365090
6414-3-415466114010
6313-5-39365120010
6213-4-453602260300
6113-3-5325243405000
6012-5-4124264009000
5912-4-50131844114010
5812-3-6012094522102000
5711-5-5001194242805000
5611-4-600583473519010
5510-6-5002624103921502000
5410-5-6001313123852304000
5310-4-700261132103118010
529-6-60012821143541402000
519-5-70000511153382214000
509-4-80002413251529390100
498-6-70011814193171602000
488-5-80000461826152326000
478-4-9000022131621286112000
467-6-800010772225141851000
457-5-9000032171722241230000
447-4-100001010825242182000
436-6-90000532118271861000
426-5-1000021141025271551000
416-4-110001084172926133000
405-6-100004182231239200
395-5-11000103122631196100
385-4-1200001517302914300
374-6-11000018233425810
364-5-12000031330331730
354-4-130001621362781
343-6-1200002123236162
333-5-13000162440255
323-4-1400215383510
312-6-13019324217
302-5-14004244626
292-4-1502164537
281-6-1401104148
271-5-15053560
261-4-16032572
251-3-1721979
240-5-1611387
230-4-17991
220-3-181189
210-2-19100
190-0-21199
Total:00215284106107967654322100