Chicago Fire Playoff Chances

Did not play, playoff odds up 0.3 to 97.6%
41 points   12-5-8

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 8/19100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Average seed
Chicago 1 Toronto FC 3 -1.1
-1.0
-7.6
-0.5
Montreal 3 Real Salt Lake 1 -0.2
-0.1
Portland 2 NY Red Bulls 0 +0.1
+0.3
+0.1
NYCFC 2 New England 1 +0.1
-0.2
-0.1
-0.1
Orlando 1 Columbus 1 +0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Columbus vs Los Angeles-0.6+0.5+0.8
-0.1+0.1+0.1
Toronto FC vs Philadelphia+0.1+0.0-0.4
-0.7+0.6+1.6
DC United vs Atlanta+0.1+0.1-0.1
+0.3+0.2-0.3
+0.1+0.1-0.1
+0.1+0.1-0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 8/25100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Average seed
Chicago vs Minnesota+1.4-1.4-3.6
+0.8-0.9-1.7
+0.7-1.0-1.3
+0.3-0.3-0.6
Columbus vs FC Dallas-0.7+0.4+0.8
-0.1+0.1+0.1
Montreal vs Toronto FC-0.6+0.2+0.5
-0.2+0.1+0.2
+0.9+0.1-1.0
NY Red Bulls vs NYCFC-0.2+0.1+0.2
-0.3+0.2+0.3
+0.1+0.1-0.3
-0.0+0.1-0.0
DC United vs New England+0.1+0.1-0.2
Philadelphia vs Atlanta-0.1+0.1+0.0
+0.2+0.1-0.4
+0.1+0.0-0.1
+0.1+0.0-0.1
Orlando vs Vancouver-0.1+0.0+0.1
Houston vs Sporting KC+0.0+0.0-0.1

What If

Chances based on how well the Chicago finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inSupportersChance will finish regular season at seedWooden
TPW-D-LplayoffsShield1234567891011SpoonCount
689-0-0In75.4%75250No4,589,337
668-1-0In55.0554410No22,633,065
658-0-1In43.8445420No27,042,749
647-2-0In32.1326250No61,996,574
637-1-1In22.022681000No145,189,704
626-3-0In13.013661910No97,492,037
7-0-2In13.714681710No82,735,585
616-2-1In7.18622720No335,208,750
606-1-2In3.445437500No373,585,714
5-4-0In2.934940700No96,993,268
595-3-1In1.1139481200No435,235,296
6-0-3In1.3242461000No134,467,480
585-2-2100.0%0.31285119100No711,293,266
4-5-0In0.3024522210No63,328,091
575-1-3100.00.10185128300No500,052,523
4-4-1100.00.10155032300No347,768,982
564-3-2100.00.0084342700No741,090,013
5-0-4100.00.00104539600No127,107,086
3-6-0100.00.0074145700No27,166,174
554-2-3100.00.004324815100No763,538,375
3-5-1100.00.00330511610No175,246,307
543-4-2100.00.001195126200No456,701,284
4-1-4100.00.001225024200No378,955,342
2-7-0100.0No01195226200No7,382,574
533-3-399.70.000114438700No613,393,882
4-0-599.8No00134535600No72,246,976
2-6-199.7No00104539600No54,447,264
523-2-498.9No005334614100No446,375,726
2-5-298.9No04334715100No167,804,501*
512-4-396.5No02204925300No273,696,204
3-1-596.9No02224924300No166,423,818
1-7-196.7No01215025300No9,543,622
502-3-490.8No001042379000No259,811,915
1-6-290.9No00104337900No33,374,854
3-0-692.4No01124436700No24,855,749*
492-2-580.4No004314518100No142,206,319
1-5-380.2No004314519100No65,111,376*
481-4-464.4No01184531400No77,627,203*
2-1-666.9No002194629400No41,441,997
471-3-544.8No00836431110No53,457,912
0-6-344.8No00836431110No6,244,620
2-0-749.9No00104040910No4,954,078
461-2-627.4No00324472230No22,896,050
0-5-426.3No00323482230No8,527,442
450-4-512.7No01124335900No7,463,337
1-1-714.9No0114443370No5,369,397
440-3-65.0No00531441810No4,709,594*
430-2-71.6No0218453140No1,441,594
420-1-80.4No009394390No277,118
410-0-90.0No0032751180No1,004,272
Total:97.6%1.8%217282817720000No8,681,506,396

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Chicago finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPW-D-LWin CupByeToronto FCNYCFCAtlantaNY Red BullsMontrealColumbusNew EnglandPhiladelphiaOrlandoDC United
689-0-012.5%Yes
668-1-012.510000000
658-0-112.510000000000
647-2-012.51000000000000
637-1-112.51000000000000
626-3-012.5990001000000
7-0-212.5990000000000
616-2-112.4980001000000
606-1-212.3950003110000
5-4-012.3930004110000
595-3-112.1880017220000
6-0-312.2900015210000
585-2-211.88001310330000
4-5-011.77701313330000
575-1-311.36902514640000
4-4-111.16402517550000
564-3-210.55103922860000
5-0-410.65503819950000
3-6-010.44803825771000
554-2-39.5360513261171000
3-5-19.4330513291081000
543-4-28.3200516321391000
4-1-48.5240516291481100
2-7-08.31905153411101000
533-3-37.0110618321591100
4-0-57.3130518311681100
2-6-17.01006183513111000
523-2-45.650518311491100
2-5-25.540518321391000
1-8-05.7405183511111010
512-4-34.220416281181100
3-1-54.320417271371100
1-7-14.210416301081000
502-3-42.80031322951100
1-6-22.80031223861000
3-0-63.110314221051100
492-2-51.7002915531100
1-5-31.7002915531000
481-4-40.900159210000
2-1-61.000169320000
0-7-20.900159220000
471-3-50.400024110000
0-6-30.400024110000
2-0-70.500035110000
461-2-60.100012000000
450-4-50.00000000000
440-3-60.0000000000
430-2-70.00000000
420-1-8No0
410-0-9No0
Total:9.0%46.10.12.99.218.87.75.20.50.30.20.0
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 8/19100.0*Lottery seed
Chicago 1 Toronto FC 3 +1.0
Portland 2 NY Red Bulls 0 -0.1
NYCFC 2 New England 1 +0.1
Orlando 1 Columbus 1 -0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
DC United vs Atlanta-0.2-0.1+0.2
Columbus vs Los Angeles+0.1-0.0-0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 8/25100.0*Lottery seed
Chicago vs Minnesota-0.5+0.6+1.2
Philadelphia vs Atlanta-0.1-0.0+0.2
NY Red Bulls vs NYCFC+0.1-0.1+0.0
Montreal vs Toronto FC+0.1-0.0-0.0
Columbus vs FC Dallas+0.1-0.0-0.0

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPW-D-L12345678910111213141516171819202122
689-0-075250
668-1-055044010
658-0-144054020
647-2-032062050
637-1-12206801000
626-3-013166019010
7-0-21406801710
616-2-17162027020
606-1-230540370500
5-4-030490400700
595-3-11038148012000
6-0-31042146010000
585-2-200271510190100
4-5-00023152022010
575-1-3001625102803000
4-4-100132490320300
564-3-200624214207000
5-0-400724513906000
3-6-000524014507000
554-2-300223024801501000
3-5-1001127351016010
543-4-200011545012602000
4-1-400111844912402000
2-7-00011445122602000
533-3-30000744043807000
4-0-5000854233506000
2-6-1000544053806000
523-2-400023267451140100
2-5-20013258462150100
512-4-30001119446250300
3-1-50002139444240300
1-7-100011010437240300
502-3-400003732113619000
1-6-2000373013362900
3-0-6001483410351700
492-2-500014171440518100
1-5-300004151639618100
481-4-400015133313305000
2-1-600001613351129400
471-3-50001719174013100
0-6-30001717194014200
2-0-70001822173811100
461-2-60000381640266000
0-5-40000371740276100
450-4-50012102938173000
1-1-70012123137152000
440-3-60000516373010100
430-2-70026263823500
420-1-8000213343513200
410-0-90004224126600
Total:201612612621616120000000