Chicago Fire Playoff Chances

Tied Colorado 2-2, playoff odds up 2.7 to 25.7%
19 points   5-4-7

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 6/23100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
Seattle vs Chicago-5.7-1.5+10.3
-0.2-0.1+0.3
+0.9-0.2-1.2
-0.3-0.1+0.6
Philadelphia vs Vancouver-1.1+0.8+1.5
-0.1+0.0+0.1
NYCFC vs Toronto FC+0.5+0.0-1.8
-0.0+0.0+0.1
+0.0-0.0-0.1
Orlando vs Montreal-0.9+1.1+1.0
-0.1+0.0+0.2
LAFC vs Columbus+0.4-0.0-0.8
+0.0*-0.0-0.1
NY Red Bulls vs FC Dallas-0.1+0.0+0.1
Minnesota vs FC Dallas+0.1-0.0-0.1
RSL vs San Jose-0.1-0.0+0.3
Colorado vs Minnesota+0.2-0.2-0.3

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Chicago finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inSupportersChance will finish regular season at seedWooden
TPW-D-LplayoffsShield123456789101112SpoonCount
7318-0-0In97.8%9910No791,327
7117-1-0In97.6100No41
7017-0-1In82.6928No86
6916-2-0In82.589101No332
6816-1-1In73.484161No1,231
6715-3-0In64.578211No2,684*
6615-2-1In55.0722620No8,782
6515-1-2In41.5613540No21,442*
6414-3-1In29.7514170No49,047*
6314-2-2In19.641471210No122,196*
6214-1-3In11.130501820No255,403*
6113-3-2In5.6214926300No530,646*
6013-2-3In2.4144534700No1,089,062*
5912-4-2In0.8838411210No2,032,334*
5812-3-3In0.2429461910No3,780,965*
5712-2-4100.0%0.12204628300No6,747,721*
5611-4-3100.00.01134237700No11,349,981*
5511-3-4100.00.00734451310No18,841,244*
5411-2-5100.00.003254820200No29,939,398*
5310-4-499.9No01174729500No45,595,503*
5210-3-599.7No0110413810000No67,948,287*
519-5-499.1No005334417100No97,125,089*
509-4-597.5No0022346262000No134,007,401*
499-3-694.3No0011443365000No180,122,777*
488-5-588.3No0008354511100No232,725,506*
478-4-679.0No0042649192000No291,062,956*
468-3-766.3No0021748286000No353,453,409*
457-5-651.4No0019423611100No413,343,344*
447-4-736.2No004324119400No467,898,632*
437-3-822.9No002214128810No513,293,980*
426-5-712.9No0011235351420No542,245,118*
416-4-86.4No006263923500.0%554,093,488*
406-3-92.7No0031736321110.0547,393,262*
395-5-81.0No001930381920.0520,173,588*
385-4-90.3No000421402960.0477,123,402*
374-6-80.1No002133638110.1421,840,642*
364-5-90.0No00172845190.3357,854,605*
354-4-100.0No0032048291.1291,967,181*
344-3-110.0No0011245413.2228,744,796*
333-5-100.0No000739547.4171,091,126*
323-4-110.0No0003316614.2122,405,674*
313-3-12OutNo001237623.783,558,677*
302-5-11OutNo000168435.253,997,403*
292-4-12OutNo00109047.533,067,506*
282-3-13OutNo0069459.219,114,590*
271-5-12OutNo0049669.810,307,356*
261-4-13OutNo029878.55,168,617*
251-3-14OutNo019985.22,399,179*
241-2-15OutNo0010090.11,001,645*
230-4-14OutNo010093.7371,964*
220-3-15OutNo010096.1120,959*
210-2-16OutNo010097.631,922
200-1-17OutNo10098.75,671
190-0-18OutNo010099.2791,773
Total:25.7%0.0%00137151717161491.7%7,317,010,950

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Chicago finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPW-D-LWin CupByeAtlantaNYCFCNY Red BullsColumbusNew EnglandOrlandoDC UnitedPhiladelphiaToronto FCMontreal
67-7312.5%Yes
6615-2-112.8100000
6515-1-212.410000000
6414-3-112.3100000000000
6314-2-212.599000000000
6214-1-312.4980001100000
6113-3-212.4960002100000
6013-2-312.1930103200000
5912-4-211.8870115400000
5812-3-311.3791228610000
5712-2-410.66814312911100
5611-4-39.755155161311100
5511-3-48.742276201621110
10-6-28.641276211621110
5411-2-57.629298231922210
10-5-37.528298241922210
5310-4-46.5183109262132210
11-1-66.51831010262122210
9-7-26.2173109272132210
5210-3-55.41131010272232210
9-6-35.21031010272132210
519-5-44.252109262032210
10-2-64.3521010262132210
509-4-53.32288231932210
10-1-73.32289231932210
8-7-33.22298231832210
499-3-62.41277201622210
8-6-42.41277201522210
10-0-82.31177191522210
488-5-51.60155151121110
9-2-71.70155151221110
7-8-31.50155151121110
478-4-61.1013311811110
7-7-41.0013310711100
9-1-81.1013411811110
468-3-70.600227511100
7-6-50.600227510000
457-5-60.300114300000
8-2-80.300114300000
447-4-70.100012100000
6-7-50.100002100000
437-3-80.100001000000
426-5-70.000000000000
416-4-80.00000000000
406-3-90.00000000000
395-5-80.00000000000
385-4-90.00000000000
375-3-100.000000
364-5-90.0000
19-35No
Total:0.5%0.80.31.11.23.52.70.40.30.30.20.0
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 6/23100.0*Lottery seed
Seattle vs Chicago+0.8+0.1-1.3
NYCFC vs Toronto FC-0.0-0.0+0.1
Philadelphia vs Vancouver+0.1-0.1-0.1
Minnesota vs FC Dallas+0.1-0.0-0.1
Orlando vs Montreal+0.0-0.1-0.0
LAFC vs Columbus-0.0-0.0+0.1

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPW-D-L1234567891011121314151617181920212223
7318-0-098110
7117-1-0982
7017-0-18398
6916-2-0837101
6816-1-17310161
6715-3-064142101
6615-2-1551726020
6515-1-2412034140
6414-3-13021392700
6314-2-2202143412010
6214-1-31119437180200
6113-3-261638112603000
6013-2-321130153317000
5912-4-217201838412010
5812-3-3041118388190100
5712-2-40251533132713000
5611-4-30121124183437000
5511-3-400171420378120100
5411-2-5000371934142012000
5310-4-400121425222735000
5210-3-5001191526308100000
519-5-40000572629151611000
509-4-50000222122242342000
499-3-6000011141330271050000
488-5-500000863025191020000
478-4-600004224193115510000
468-3-700020161138181141000
457-5-600010943717191030000
447-4-700004130122320820000
437-3-800020216192718610000
426-5-7000101221227271441000
416-4-800006151930251130000
406-3-90003021024312182000
395-5-80001004142830185100
385-4-90000001618302713300
374-6-80000029233223810
364-5-900000031429321740
354-4-10000016203428101
344-3-1100002112936193
333-5-100000152037307
323-4-110000211333914
313-3-1200016254524
302-5-110002174635
292-4-12001104247
282-3-1300053559
271-5-120022870
261-4-130012078
251-3-140001485
241-2-15001090
230-4-1400694
220-3-150496
210-2-160298
200-1-17199
190-0-180199
Total:00000012254114681010987642