Chicago Fire FC Playoff Chances

Season start, playoff odds unchanged at 53.8%
0 points   0-0-0

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 2/29100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
Seattle vs Chicago-4.5+0.0+10.5
-0.5-0.0+1.2
-1.0-0.2+2.6
+0.9-0.2-2.0
-0.4-0.0+1.0
Orlando vs RSL-0.5+0.4+0.8
-0.1+0.0+0.1
-0.0+0.0+0.1
DC United vs Colorado-0.5+0.4+0.8
-0.1+0.0+0.1
-0.0+0.0+0.1
Nashville vs Atlanta+0.4*-0.0-0.9
+0.0+0.0-0.1
-0.0+0.1-0.0
+0.0+0.0-0.1
San Jose vs Toronto FC+0.4*-0.0-0.9
+0.0+0.0-0.1
+0.0+0.0-0.1
FC Dallas vs Philadelphia+0.4*-0.0-0.9
+0.0+0.0-0.1
+0.0+0.0-0.1
LAFC vs Miami+0.4*-0.0-0.9
+0.0+0.0-0.1
+0.0+0.0-0.1
Montreal vs New England-0.1+0.4-0.1
NY Red Bulls vs Cincinnati-0.1+0.4-0.1
Columbus vs NYCFC-0.1+0.4-0.1
Houston vs LA Galaxy-0.0+0.1-0.0
Portland vs Minnesota-0.0+0.1-0.0
Vancouver vs Sporting KC-0.0+0.1-0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 3/7100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
New England vs Chicago-5.0+0.4+11.2
-0.6+0.0+1.3
-1.0-0.2+2.6
+0.9-0.2-1.9
-0.5+0.0+1.0
RSL vs NY Red Bulls+0.4*-0.0-0.9
+0.0+0.0-0.1
-0.0+0.1-0.0
+0.0+0.0-0.1
LAFC vs Philadelphia+0.4*-0.0-0.9
+0.0+0.0-0.1
+0.0+0.0-0.1
FC Dallas vs Montreal+0.4*-0.0-0.9
+0.0+0.0-0.1
+0.0+0.0-0.1
Colorado vs Orlando+0.4-0.0-0.9
+0.0+0.0-0.1
+0.0+0.0-0.1
Seattle vs Columbus+0.4-0.0-0.9
+0.0+0.0-0.1
+0.0+0.0-0.1
Atlanta vs Cincinnati-0.1+0.4-0.1
Toronto FC vs NYCFC-0.1+0.4-0.1
DC United vs Miami-0.1+0.4-0.1
Sporting KC vs Houston-0.0+0.1-0.0
Portland vs Nashville-0.0+0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Chicago finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inSupportersChance will finish regular season at seedWooden
TPW-D-LplayoffsShield12345678910111213SpoonCount
85-102InYes100No1,205,722*
8427-3-4In99.9%1000No1,090*
81-83In100.0100No16,015*
8025-5-4In99.91000No17,776*
7925-4-5In99.91000No34,705*
7824-6-4In99.91000No64,122*
7724-5-5In99.91000No116,817*
7624-4-6In99.91000No207,925*
7523-6-5In99.81000No363,777*
7423-5-6In99.81000No617,729*
7322-7-5In99.71000No1,034,364*
7222-6-6In99.51000No1,692,771*
7122-5-7In99.210000No2,703,523*
7021-7-6In98.710000No4,247,073*
6921-6-7In98.09910No6,529,935*
6821-5-8In96.899100No9,835,346*
6720-7-7In95.09820No14,546,393*
6620-6-8In92.397300No21,082,547*
6519-8-7In88.595500No29,969,114*
6419-7-8In83.2937000No41,808,401*
6319-6-9In76.28910000No57,186,330*
6218-8-8In67.284151000No76,796,423*
6118-7-9In56.578202000No101,210,859*
6018-6-10In44.470263000No130,924,269*
5917-8-9100.0%32.16133600000No166,242,923*
5817-7-10In20.75138101000No207,194,519*
5716-9-9100.011.539421630000No253,528,736*
5616-8-10100.05.328432361000No304,576,135*
5516-7-11100.01.919393010200000No359,173,228*
5415-9-10100.00.511323417510000No415,851,173*
5315-8-11100.00.1623352510200000No472,731,807*
5215-7-1299.90.0214303117510000No527,545,078*
5114-9-1199.60.01721312511300000No577,970,892*
5014-8-1298.30.003122630197200000No621,622,514*
4914-7-1394.4No01617292715510000No656,213,750*
4813-9-1285.6No00292230241130000No680,103,051*
4713-8-1370.4No00131225292082000No691,664,987*
4613-7-1450.3No00015162828165100No690,404,211*
4512-9-1330.2No00002820292512300No676,294,623*
4412-8-1414.9No000003112430218100.0%649,912,255*
4311-10-135.9No00001516292916400.0612,695,833*
4211-9-141.9No0000282232251010.0566,605,067*
4111-8-150.5No0000031329331840.0513,911,379*
4010-10-140.1No00001721352880.2456,974,759*
3910-9-150.0No000003143236151.0398,315,937*
3810-8-160.0No000172642243.4340,373,785*
379-10-150.0No000041843358.5284,932,505*
369-9-160.0No000112404716.9233,634,745*
359-8-170.0No00017355828.2187,640,549*
348-10-16OutNo0004286841.1147,521,531*
338-9-17OutNo0002217754.0113,488,557*
328-8-18OutNo001158465.885,395,380*
317-10-17OutNo000118975.662,823,360*
307-9-18OutNo00079383.245,190,460*
297-8-19OutNo0059588.931,745,519*
286-10-18OutNo0039792.921,777,922*
276-9-19OutNo0029895.514,575,718*
266-8-20OutNo019997.39,507,586*
255-10-19OutNo019998.46,049,831*
245-9-20OutNo0010099.13,741,885*
235-8-21OutNo0010099.52,257,487*
224-10-20OutNo010099.71,318,679*
214-9-21OutNo010099.8749,414*
204-8-22OutNo010099.9411,441*
194-7-23OutNo010099.9219,025*
183-9-22OutNo010099.9112,983*
173-8-23OutNo010099.956,250*
15-16OutNo100100.039,248*
142-8-24OutNo0100100.05,417*
0-13OutNo100Yes1,208,652*
Total:53.8%3.8%88888888888883.8%12,596,523,812

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Chicago finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPW-D-LWin CupByeNYCFCColumbusMontrealAtlantaCincinnatiToronto FCPhiladelphiaNew EnglandDC UnitedOrlandoMiamiNY Red Bulls
69-10212.5%Yes
6821-5-812.51000
6720-7-712.5Yes
6620-6-812.51000000000
6519-8-712.5100000000000000
6419-7-812.5100000000000000
6319-6-912.5100000000000000
6218-8-812.5100000000000000
6118-7-912.5100000000000000
6018-6-1012.5100000000000000
5917-8-912.5100000000000000
18-5-1112.5100000000000000
5817-7-1012.599000000000000
16-10-812.599000000000000
5716-9-912.497000000000000
17-6-1112.497000000000000
5616-8-1012.294111111111111
17-5-1212.394000000000000
15-11-812.293111111111111
5516-7-1111.988111111111111
15-10-911.987111111111111
5415-9-1011.376222222222222
16-6-1211.479222222222222
14-12-811.377222222222222
5315-8-1110.463333333333333
14-11-910.361333333333333
16-5-1310.665333333333333
5215-7-129.247444444444444
14-10-108.944444444444444
16-4-149.247444444444444
5114-9-117.228555555555555
15-6-137.631555555555555
13-12-97.228555555555555
5014-8-125.416555555555555
13-11-105.014555555555555
15-5-145.617555555555555
4914-7-133.67444444444444
13-10-113.36444444444444
4813-9-121.82222222222222
14-6-141.92333333333333
4713-8-130.81111111111111
4613-7-140.30111111111111
4512-9-130.10000000000000
4412-8-140.00000000000000
4312-7-150.00000000000000
4211-9-140.00000000000000
4111-8-150.00000000000000
4011-7-160.0000000000000
3910-9-15No00000000000
0-38No
Total:3.8%23.11.31.31.31.31.31.31.31.31.31.31.31.3
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 2/29100.0*Lottery seed
Seattle vs Chicago+0.9-0.0-2.0
DC United vs Colorado+0.1-0.1-0.1
Orlando vs RSL+0.1-0.1-0.1
San Jose vs Toronto FC-0.0-0.0+0.1
Nashville vs Atlanta-0.0-0.0+0.1
FC Dallas vs Philadelphia-0.0-0.0+0.1
LAFC vs Miami-0.0-0.0+0.1
Columbus vs NYCFC+0.0-0.1+0.0
NY Red Bulls vs Cincinnati+0.0-0.1+0.0
Montreal vs New England+0.0-0.1+0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 3/7100.0*Lottery seed
New England vs Chicago+0.9-0.1-2.1
LAFC vs Philadelphia-0.0-0.0+0.1
RSL vs NY Red Bulls-0.0-0.0+0.1
FC Dallas vs Montreal-0.0-0.0+0.1
Colorado vs Orlando-0.0-0.0+0.1
Seattle vs Columbus-0.0-0.0+0.1
Atlanta vs Cincinnati+0.0-0.1+0.0
Toronto FC vs NYCFC+0.0-0.1+0.0
DC United vs Miami+0.0-0.1+0.0

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPW-D-L1234567891011121314151617181920212223242526
85-102100
8427-3-41000
8326-5-31000
8226-4-41000
8125-6-31000
8025-5-410000
7925-4-510000
7824-6-410000
7724-5-510000
7624-4-610000
7523-6-510000
7423-5-610000
7322-7-510000
7222-6-69900
7122-5-799100
7021-7-699100
6921-6-7981100
6821-5-89721000
6720-7-7953200
6620-6-89243000
6519-8-78975000
6419-7-883970000
6319-6-976131000000
6218-8-8671715010000
6118-7-9562220020000
6018-6-104426251300000
5917-8-9322930360000000
5817-7-10213033610010000
5716-9-9122832101513000000
5616-8-1052327162125010000
5516-7-11217182125510020000000
5415-9-1011010222410161501000000
5315-8-110541918172149020000000
5215-7-120211392021916150100000
5114-9-11010731815162141103000000
5014-8-120003112720191118270200000
4914-7-13001062161018207141510000
4813-9-1200002093181415194113100000
4713-8-1300010301261917121893000000
4613-7-1400000105115919191893100000
4512-9-13000000208218122120114100000
4412-8-140000000030114142322146200000
4311-10-130000001051514232417820000
4211-9-1400000020151322251993100
4111-8-1500000000141222262010300
4010-10-14000000001412232721920
3910-9-1500000000151325292071
3810-8-16000000016162829163
379-10-150000000282133279
369-9-16000000313303617
359-8-170000017234128
348-10-16000003154141
338-9-170000193654
328-8-18000052966
317-10-1700022276
307-9-1800011683
297-8-190001189
286-10-18000793
276-9-1900496
266-8-2000397
255-10-190298
245-9-200199
235-8-210199
224-10-2000100
214-9-210100
204-8-220100
194-7-230100
183-9-220100
173-8-230100
163-7-240100
152-9-230100
142-8-240100
0-13100
Total:44444444444444444444444444