Chicago Fire FC Playoff Chances

Tied New England 1-1, playoff odds down 2.7 to 47.1%
5 points   1-2-2

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 3/9100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
Columbus 2 Chicago 1 -4.8
-0.3
-0.4
+1.1
-0.5
Orlando 2 Minnesota 3 +0.8
-0.1
+0.1
NYCFC 1 Portland 2 +0.6
-0.2
+0.1
NY Red Bulls 2 Dallas 1 -0.4
-0.0
Nashville 2 LA Galaxy 2 +0.4
+0.0
Cincinnati 0 DC United 0 +0.3
Miami CF 2 Montreal 3 -0.2
Atlanta 4 New England 1 -0.2
San Jose 0 Vancouver 2 -0.1
RSL 1 Colorado 2 +0.1
Austin 2 St Louis 2 -0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Philadelphia vs Seattle-0.5+0.5+0.9
-0.0*+0.0+0.1
-0.0+0.0+0.1
Week of 3/16100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon100.0*Average seed
Chicago 4 Montreal 3 +6.7
+0.3
+0.3
-2.0
+0.6
NYCFC 2 Toronto 1 -0.3
+0.3
New England 1 Cincinnati 2 -0.2
-0.1
-0.1
Atlanta 2 Orlando 0 -0.2
-0.1
Nashville 2 Charlotte 1 -0.2
Columbus 3 NY Red Bulls 0 -0.1
DC United 1 Miami CF 3 +0.1
Austin 2 Philadelphia 2 -0.1
Dallas 1 Vancouver 3 -0.1
Houston 1 Portland 0 +0.1
Sporting KC 2 San Jose 1 -0.1
Seattle 1 Colorado 1 -0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Chicago finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inSupportersChance will finish regular season at seedWooden
TPW-D-LplayoffsShield123456789101112131415SpoonCount
75-92In100.0%100No27,859*
7422-3-4In99.51000No1,286*
7321-5-3In99.11000No2,461*
7221-4-4In98.7991No4,819*
7121-3-5In98.2991No8,769*
7020-5-4In96.79820No15,466*
6920-4-5In95.29730No27,440*
6819-6-4In92.39550No47,113*
6719-5-5In88.893700No78,083*
6619-4-6In83.6901000No125,774*
6518-6-5In77.0851410No199,324*
6418-5-6In68.37919100No309,546*
6318-4-7In58.07225300No465,657*
6217-6-6In46.663325000No688,061*
6117-5-7In34.652389100No994,520*
6016-7-6In23.34242142000No1,404,754*
5916-6-7In14.03143214000No1,937,899*
5816-5-8In7.221412891000No2,624,664*
5715-7-7In3.01335341530000No3,468,727*
5615-6-8In1.0726362371000No4,485,853*
5515-5-9In0.23173330143000No5,676,450*
5414-7-8100.0%0.01925332281000No7,034,048*
5314-6-9100.00.0041630291541000No8,524,574*
5213-8-8100.00.0018223224102000No10,122,806*
5113-7-999.90.00031327301961000No11,762,475*
5013-6-1099.5No00161830271340000No13,377,013*
4912-8-998.0No0002923312392000No14,892,352*
4812-7-1093.4No000031327311861000No16,216,186*
4712-6-1183.3No00016183128133000No17,293,967*
4611-8-1066.6No0002923322381000No18,042,699*
4511-7-1146.0No00003142932175000No18,422,972*
4411-6-1226.6No0001620332811200No18,404,087*
4310-8-1112.8No000211273420510No17,995,413*
4210-7-125.0No0001418333012200.0%17,199,046*
4110-6-131.6No00029273621500.016,069,851*
409-8-120.4No000041835301010.014,688,232*
399-7-130.1No00021030371830.013,120,996*
389-6-140.0No000522392860.211,455,604*
378-8-130.0No0002143736110.99,763,525*
368-7-140.0No00183143182.88,126,853*
357-9-130.0No00042346266.66,608,161*
347-8-14OutNo00216463613.15,242,869*
337-7-15OutNo00110424622.14,055,984*
326-9-14OutNo0006375633.03,056,634*
316-8-15OutNo004316545.02,244,456*
306-7-16OutNo002257356.61,606,273*
295-9-15OutNo01198067.11,117,414*
285-8-16OutNo00148675.9754,870*
275-7-17OutNo00109083.0494,977*
265-6-18OutNo0079388.5315,548*
254-8-17OutNo059592.3195,363*
244-7-18OutNo039795.0116,025*
234-6-19OutNo029896.967,011*
223-8-18OutNo019998.237,186*
213-7-19OutNo19998.920,313*
203-6-20OutNo010099.410,276*
192-8-19OutNo010099.54,978*
182-7-20OutNo010099.72,388*
5-17OutNo100100.028,562*
Total:47.1%0.8%23345678910101010852.5%311,086,512

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Chicago finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPW-D-LWin CupByeCincinnatiTorontoNY Red BullsColumbusMiami CFMontrealPhiladelphiaAtlantaCharlotteDC UnitedNashvilleNYCFCOrlandoNew England
68-9212.3%Yes
6719-5-512.51000
6619-4-612.51000000
6518-6-512.4100000000000
6418-5-612.4100000000000000
6318-4-712.51000000000000000
6217-6-612.410000000000000000
6117-5-712.59900000000000000
16-8-512.49900000000000000
6016-7-612.49800000000000000
17-4-812.49800000000000000
5916-6-712.29511111100000000
15-9-512.39511111100000000
17-3-912.29601110000000000
5816-5-812.09011111111100000
15-8-612.09011111111100000
5715-7-711.58122222221110000
16-4-911.68322222211110000
14-10-511.58022222222110000
5615-6-810.76933333332221000
14-9-610.66744443333221000
16-3-1010.87033333322211000
5515-5-99.75455554443321000
14-8-79.45155555444321100
13-11-59.65355555444321100
5414-7-87.93566666554431110
15-4-108.13866666554431110
13-10-67.73466666655431110
5314-6-96.12167776655532110
13-9-75.81967766655532110
15-3-116.32277776655532110
5213-8-84.0966665554432110
14-5-104.31066666555432110
12-11-64.0966665554432110
5113-7-92.5444444433321110
14-4-112.7444544444331110
12-10-72.3344444433321110
5013-6-101.3133332222221100
12-9-81.1122222222211000
14-3-121.3133332222221100
4912-8-90.5011111111110000
13-5-110.5011111111110000
4812-7-100.2000000000000000
4712-6-110.0000000000000000
4611-8-100.0000000000000000
4511-7-110.0000000000000000
4411-6-120.000000000000000
4311-5-13No0000000
4211-4-14No0
5-41No
Total:1.5%7.51.01.01.01.01.00.90.80.80.80.60.30.20.10.1
Points
Chance Will Make Playoffs