New York Mets Playoff Chances 2018 50/50

Lost to Twins 98-123, playoff odds down 14.7 to 32%

5-4-0 .556

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Chances based on how well the Mets finish out the regular season. Explain

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TW		W	-	L	-	T	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	Count

16		11	-	0	-	0	In		98	2											994
15	.5	10	-	0	-	1	In		98	2											386
15		10	-	1	-	0	In		89	10		0									8,933
		9	-	0	-	2	In		92	8											64
14	.5	9	-	1	-	1	In		86	13	0	1									3,661
		8	-	0	-	3	In		100												9
14		9	-	2	-	0	100.0	%	68	29	0	3	0								44,998
		8	-	1	-	2	In		69	28	0	3									664
13	.5	8	-	2	-	1	99.8		56	34	1	9	0								16,223
		7	-	1	-	3	In		52	38	1	9									85
13		8	-	3	-	0	98.9		32	49	3	15	1	0							133,462
		7	-	2	-	2	99.2		34	48	2	15	1	0							2,653
		6	-	1	-	4	In			100											2
12	.5	7	-	3	-	1	94.6		17	42	5	30	5	0							43,933
		6	-	2	-	3	95.0		16	43	6	30	4	0	0						241
12		7	-	4	-	0	83.2		5	35	11	32	15	2	0						268,294
		6	-	3	-	2	83.0		5	34	11	34	15	2	0						6,269
		5	-	2	-	4	72.2			33		39	28								18
11	.5	6	-	4	-	1	56.9		1	14	10	32	34	9	1	0					76,557
		5	-	3	-	3	60.0		0	13	12	35	32	7	1						453	*
11		6	-	5	-	0	32.7		0	6	9	18	37	24	6	1	0	0			375,977
		5	-	4	-	2	29.5		0	5	8	16	38	25	7	0					9,342
		4	-	3	-	4	15.0			5	10		35	35	15						20
10	.5	5	-	5	-	1	7.6			0	3	5	26	41	21	4	0	0			92,334
		4	-	4	-	3	7.2			1	1	5	28	41	20	4		0			628	*
10		5	-	6	-	0	2.2			0	1	1	10	29	34	19	5	1	0		375,486
		4	-	5	-	2	1.6			0	1	1	9	29	35	20	5	0	0		9,348
		3	-	4	-	4	Out						9	22	43	26					23
9	.5	4	-	6	-	1	0.1				0	0	1	9	29	37	20	4	0	0	76,306
		3	-	5	-	3	Out						2	7	32	35	21	4			511
9		4	-	7	-	0	0.0				0	0	0	2	12	30	34	18	4	0	268,910
		3	-	6	-	2	Out						0	2	11	29	36	19	4	0	6,255
		2	-	5	-	4	Out								8	42	17	33			12
8	.5	3	-	7	-	1	Out						0	0	2	12	34	38	14	1	44,027
		2	-	6	-	3	Out								2	14	36	35	13	0	246	*
8		3	-	8	-	0	Out							0	0	3	18	40	31	7	134,313
		2	-	7	-	2	Out								0	3	18	40	32	7	2,614
		1	-	6	-	4	Out											20	40	40	5
7	.5	2	-	8	-	1	Out									0	5	30	49	16	16,429
		1	-	7	-	3	Out										10	34	37	19	83
7		2	-	9	-	0	Out								0	0	1	15	48	36	44,842
		1	-	8	-	2	Out										1	13	50	36	664
6	.5	1	-	9	-	1	Out										0	6	43	51	3,643
		0	-	8	-	3	Out											20	60	20	5
6		1	-	10	-	0	Out										0	2	26	72	8,912
		0	-	9	-	2	Out											3	23	75	71
5	.5	0	-	10	-	1	Out												17	83	383
5		0	-	11	-	0	Out												7	93	1,032

Total:							32.0	%	6	11	4	11	13	13	11	10	8	7	4	2	2,080,320

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TW		W	-	L	-	T	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24

16		11	-	0	-	0	90	10	0
15	.5	10	-	0	-	1	63	31	5	0	0
15		10	-	1	-	0	59	34	7	1	0
		9	-	0	-	2	20	39	36	5
14	.5	9	-	1	-	1	22	40	28	9	1	0
		8	-	0	-	3		33	22	11	22	11
14		9	-	2	-	0	20	40	29	10	2	0	0		0
		8	-	1	-	2	3	13	28	30	19	6	1
13	.5	8	-	2	-	1	2	12	27	31	20	6	1	0	0	0
		7	-	1	-	3			2	20	28	28	19	2
13		8	-	3	-	0	2	11	25	31	21	8	1	0	1	0
		7	-	2	-	2	0	0	4	13	27	31	20	4	1	0
		6	-	1	-	4							50	50
12	.5	7	-	3	-	1	0	0	3	12	25	31	20	3	4	1	0	0
		6	-	2	-	3					2	17	50	26	1	2	2	0
12		7	-	4	-	0	0	0	3	10	22	28	18	3	12	4	1	0	0
		6	-	3	-	2			0	1	3	15	38	27	4	6	5	2	0	0
		5	-	2	-	4							22	50		11	6	6	6
11	.5	6	-	4	-	1		0	0	0	2	10	26	18	10	16	12	4	1	0	0
		5	-	3	-	3						1	14	45	1	4	9	15	9	3		0
11		6	-	5	-	0			0	0	1	6	14	11	16	25	18	7	1	0	0
		5	-	4	-	2						0	6	23	1	6	15	21	16	9	3	1	0
		4	-	3	-	4								15				10	15	25	15	20
10	.5	5	-	5	-	1					0	0	2	6	1	7	18	26	22	12	4	1	0	0
		4	-	4	-	3							0	7		0	0	4	12	21	25	17	9	3	1
10		5	-	6	-	0					0	0	0	2	1	7	18	27	24	14	5	1	0	0
		4	-	5	-	2							0	2		0	1	3	11	23	26	20	10	4	1	0
		3	-	4	-	4																13	35	22	22	9
9	.5	4	-	6	-	1								0	0	0	1	3	10	22	27	21	11	4	1	0	0
		3	-	5	-	3														1	4	12	30	25	20	6	1		0
9		4	-	7	-	0								0	0	0	0	3	10	20	27	23	12	4	1	0	0	0
		3	-	6	-	2													0	1	4	14	25	27	19	7	2	0
		2	-	5	-	4																		8	25	42	17	8
8	.5	3	-	7	-	1												0	0	1	4	12	24	28	20	8	2	0	0
		2	-	6	-	3																0	2	7	22	30	24	12	2
8		3	-	8	-	0												0	0	1	3	11	23	29	21	9	2	0	0
		2	-	7	-	2															0	0	1	7	21	31	24	12	3	0
		1	-	6	-	4																				20	20	20	40
7	.5	2	-	8	-	1															0	0	1	7	19	31	26	12	3	0
		1	-	7	-	3																			2	5	22	43	25	2
7		2	-	9	-	0															0	0	1	7	19	30	27	13	3	0
		1	-	8	-	2																		0	1	8	22	36	27	7
6	.5	1	-	9	-	1																	0	0	1	6	24	36	26	7
		0	-	8	-	3																						40	20	40
6		1	-	10	-	0																		0	1	7	22	36	26	7
		0	-	9	-	2																					1	20	44	35
5	.5	0	-	10	-	1																					3	17	46	34
5		0	-	11	-	0																				0	3	13	43	41

Total:							1	2	3	4	5	6	7	4	5	7	8	8	7	7	6	5	4	3	3	2	1	1	0	0