Cincinatti Reds Playoff Chances 2018 50/50

Beat Rays 166-123, playoff odds up 6.9 to 53.8%

6-3-0 .667

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Chances based on how well the Reds finish out the regular season. Explain

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TW		W	-	L	-	T	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	Count

17		11	-	0	-	0	In		100												978
16	.5	10	-	0	-	1	In		100	0											407
16		10	-	1	-	0	In		100	0		0									8,886
		9	-	0	-	2	In		100												79
15	.5	9	-	1	-	1	In		99	0		1									3,674
		8	-	0	-	3	In		100												10
15		9	-	2	-	0	In		95	2		3									44,739
		8	-	1	-	2	In		95	1		3									685
14	.5	8	-	2	-	1	In		89	5	0	6									16,356
		7	-	1	-	3	In		92	3		5									61
14		8	-	3	-	0	100.0	%	76	10	0	14	0								134,296
		7	-	2	-	2	In		78	9	0	13									2,688
		6	-	1	-	4	In		100												5
13	.5	7	-	3	-	1	99.9		60	19	0	21	0								43,758
		6	-	2	-	3	99.6		53	24		23	0								252
13		7	-	4	-	0	98.7		38	24	2	36	1	0							268,880
		6	-	3	-	2	98.9		39	25	1	34	1	0							6,171
		5	-	2	-	4	In		45	9		45									11
12	.5	6	-	4	-	1	95.2		19	29	4	44	5	0							76,421
		5	-	3	-	3	95.8		18	29	5	44	4								498
12		6	-	5	-	0	82.9		6	20	7	49	15	2	0	0					375,500
		5	-	4	-	2	84.7		7	21	7	50	14	1	0						9,297
		4	-	3	-	4	84.0		8	28	4	44	16								25
11	.5	5	-	5	-	1	61.3		1	12	9	40	31	7	0	0					91,790
		4	-	4	-	3	59.6		1	10	8	40	33	7	0						684
		3	-	3	-	5	50.0					50	50								2
11		5	-	6	-	0	33.0		0	4	7	23	39	22	5	1	0				375,408
		4	-	5	-	2	32.6		0	3	7	22	39	23	5	0	0				9,178
		3	-	4	-	4	26.1					26	57	17							23
10	.5	4	-	6	-	1	10.4			1	4	6	28	39	19	4	0	0			76,769
		3	-	5	-	3	8.7			0	3	6	30	39	18	4	1				542	*
10		4	-	7	-	0	2.7			0	1	1	11	29	33	19	5	1	0	0	269,017
		3	-	6	-	2	2.3			0	1	1	11	29	34	18	5	1			6,222
		2	-	5	-	4	7.1				7		14	21	21	36					14
9	.5	3	-	7	-	1	0.3				0	0	1	10	30	36	19	4	0		43,926
		2	-	6	-	3	Out						3	10	24	42	17	4	0		230	*
9		3	-	8	-	0	0.0				0	0	0	2	12	28	34	19	4	0	134,350
		2	-	7	-	2	Out						0	2	10	29	35	19	4	0	2,685
		1	-	6	-	4	Out						17			50	17		17		6
8	.5	2	-	8	-	1	0.0				0			0	2	11	33	38	14	2	16,082
		1	-	7	-	3	Out								1	8	30	42	18	1	74
8		2	-	9	-	0	Out							0	0	3	16	38	34	9	44,801
		1	-	8	-	2	Out									3	16	38	35	8	687
7	.5	1	-	9	-	1	Out									0	4	26	49	21	3,671
		0	-	8	-	3	Out											45	27	27	11
7		1	-	10	-	0	Out									0	1	11	42	45	8,985
		0	-	9	-	2	Out										1	12	47	40	77
6	.5	0	-	10	-	1	Out											3	28	70	361
6		0	-	11	-	0	Out											1	17	83	1,048

Total:							53.8	%	17	10	4	23	14	10	8	5	4	3	1	1	2,080,320

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TW		W	-	L	-	T	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24

17		11	-	0	-	0	98	2
16	.5	10	-	0	-	1	85	14	1
16		10	-	1	-	0	86	14	0
		9	-	0	-	2	59	32	8	1
15	.5	9	-	1	-	1	60	34	5	0	0
		8	-	0	-	3	40	40	10	10
15		9	-	2	-	0	59	35	6	0	0
		8	-	1	-	2	23	42	27	7	1
14	.5	8	-	2	-	1	23	43	26	7	1	0	0
		7	-	1	-	3	5	15	28	34	16	2
14		8	-	3	-	0	23	42	26	8	1	0	0		0
		7	-	2	-	2	4	19	30	28	15	5	0
		6	-	1	-	4				40	20	20	20
13	.5	7	-	3	-	1	3	17	30	29	15	5	1	0	0
		6	-	2	-	3		0	6	21	32	25	14	2		0
13		7	-	4	-	0	3	15	29	29	17	5	1	0	1	0	0
		6	-	3	-	2	0	1	7	18	30	28	13	2	1	0	0
		5	-	2	-	4						45	36	18
12	.5	6	-	4	-	1	0	1	6	17	28	28	14	2	4	1	0	0
		5	-	3	-	3			0	1	5	21	41	27	2	2	0	0
12		6	-	5	-	0	0	1	5	14	24	25	13	2	14	3	0	0	0
		5	-	4	-	2			0	1	6	20	38	21	5	6	3	1	0	0
		4	-	3	-	4						4	28	52		4		8	4
11	.5	5	-	5	-	1			0	1	4	15	27	15	14	15	7	2	0	0	0
		4	-	4	-	3						1	13	45	1	8	11	10	9	1	0
		3	-	3	-	5								50							50
11		5	-	6	-	0		0	0	0	2	8	15	8	23	26	13	4	1	0	0
		4	-	5	-	2					0	1	7	25	2	9	19	18	12	5	1	0	0
		3	-	4	-	4								26				13	9	9	30	13
10	.5	4	-	6	-	1					0	0	2	8	3	12	24	25	16	7	2	0	0
		3	-	5	-	3								9		0	2	6	19	28	20	13	3	1
10		4	-	7	-	0					0	0	1	2	2	12	25	27	19	8	2	0	0	0
		3	-	6	-	2							0	2	0	0	1	7	17	25	25	15	6	2	0	0
		2	-	5	-	4								7								21	14	50		7
9	.5	3	-	7	-	1							0	0		0	1	5	15	25	26	18	7	2	0	0
		2	-	6	-	3												0	0	1	10	15	30	25	11	6	1
9		3	-	8	-	0								0	0	0	1	4	13	24	27	19	8	2	0	0	0
		2	-	7	-	2													0	2	5	15	28	26	17	6	1	0
		1	-	6	-	4																				33	17	50
8	.5	2	-	8	-	1								0					0	1	5	15	25	28	18	7	1	0	0
		1	-	7	-	3																1	1	7	24	36	22	5	3
8		2	-	9	-	0												0	0	1	4	13	25	28	19	7	2	0	0
		1	-	8	-	2																0	2	8	20	32	23	11	3	1
7	.5	1	-	9	-	1															0	0	1	7	21	30	26	11	2	0
		0	-	8	-	3																				9	27	36	27
7		1	-	10	-	0																0	1	6	19	31	27	13	3	0
		0	-	9	-	2																			1	9	25	27	31	6
6	.5	0	-	10	-	1																		0	0	6	18	38	29	8
6		0	-	11	-	0																		0	0	5	16	32	32	14

Total:							4	6	8	8	9	8	7	3	8	8	7	6	4	4	3	2	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0