How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 6/3100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Reds 166 Rays 123 -1.1
-0.5
Pirates 126 Red Sox 105 +0.3
Cubs 172 Blue Jays 205 -0.2
Tigers 98 Braves 138 +0.1
+0.0
Rockies 132 Angels 252 -0.1
Royals 72 Nationals 210 +0.1
Twins 123 Mets 98 -0.1
Dodgers 108 Astros 79 +0.1
Diamondbacks 101 Mariners 125 -0.1
Giants 116 Rangers 56 +0.1
Indians 79 Phillies 80 +0.1
Brewers 85 Yankees 180 -0.1
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 6/10100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Blue Jays vs Rays-0.7-0.4+0.7
-0.5-0.0+0.5
Red Sox vs Yankees-0.2*-0.1+0.2
+0.1-0.1-0.1
Tigers vs Indians-0.1*+0.1+0.1
Twins vs Royals+0.1*-0.0-0.1
Angels vs Astros+0.0*-0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Rays finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TWW-L-Tplayoffs123456789101112Count
1311-0-097.6%233493321,013
12.510-0-183.3816951160372
1210-1-069.829124726408,904
9-0-275.46313823265
11.59-1-138.6025324416203,660
8-0-333.33350176
119-2-020.100316403091044,550
8-1-220.20317413091682
10.58-2-14.20042643233016,346
7-1-36.36273925364
108-3-01.10011132381620134,277
7-2-20.90110333716202,743
6-1-4Out18552711
9.57-3-10.100216413381044,018
6-2-3Out117383850277
97-4-00.00005254123500268,431
6-3-20.0005244124506,238
5-2-4Out13404715
8.56-4-1Out01103538142076,892
5-3-3Out1123440131559*
86-5-0Out00319393081374,725
5-4-2Out03183931819,520
4-3-4Out4232738826
7.55-5-1Out006284220391,851
4-4-3Out072643203594*
75-6-0Out0021539359376,060
4-5-2Out0214403689,456
3-4-4Out18414122
6.54-6-1Out0528462176,450
3-5-3Out6264721499*
64-7-0Out02164834268,189
3-6-2Out11648356,323
2-5-4Out16424219
5.53-7-1Out006395544,007
2-6-3Out053856273
53-8-0Out033167134,495
2-7-2Out0330672,700
1-6-4Out33676
4.52-8-1Out1168316,429
1-7-3Out1198074
42-9-0Out0128844,788
1-8-2Out01288628
3.51-9-1Out04963,543
0-8-3Out14867
31-10-0Out3979,047
0-9-2Out19976
2.50-10-1Out199376
20-11-0Out01001,014
Total:1.0%000124813161920162,080,320

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 6/3100.0*Lottery seed
Reds 166 Rays 123 +1.0
Dodgers 108 Astros 79 +0.1
Indians 79 Phillies 80 -0.0
Cubs 172 Blue Jays 205 -0.0
Tigers 98 Braves 138 +0.0
Diamondbacks 101 Mariners 125 +0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 6/10100.0*Lottery seed
Blue Jays vs Rays+0.9+0.9-0.9
Rangers vs Mariners+0.0-0.2+0.0
Pirates vs Brewers-0.1-0.1+0.1
Tigers vs Indians-0.0-0.1+0.0
Red Sox vs Yankees-0.1-0.0+0.1
Cubs vs Reds+0.0-0.1-0.0
Braves vs Phillies+0.0-0.1-0.0
Mets vs Nationals+0.0-0.1-0.0

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TWW-L-T123456789101112131415161718192021222324
1311-0-04132929194020
12.510-0-111720242649710
1210-1-000151525195199200
9-0-2632373868
11.59-1-10315205172113510
8-0-333331717
119-2-000281172227176100
8-1-22180411212216510
10.58-2-104014132427187200
7-1-36269301717112
108-3-00010141223282092000
7-2-21001413242819820
6-1-4274527
9.57-3-10000014132428208200
6-2-30281829281221
97-4-00000141223282192000
6-3-2000271930261330
5-2-41313203320
8.56-4-1002717292714400
5-3-3028193229101
86-5-00001616282815410
5-4-20017203227112
4-3-415462712
7.55-5-10016193329112
4-4-30212343517
75-6-00015183330122
4-5-200213333715
3-4-4184141
6.54-6-100212323815
3-5-31144143
64-7-000211323916
3-6-201114146
2-5-4112168
5.53-7-101114147
2-6-342176
53-8-001114147
2-7-2022177
1-6-4100
4.52-8-1012177
1-7-3496
42-9-0012178
1-8-2694
3.51-9-10793
0-8-3100
31-10-00694
0-9-2100
2.50-10-1298
20-11-0199
Total:00000000011123346791113141410