Detroit Tigers Playoff Chances 2018 50/50

Lost to Braves 98-138, playoff odds down 6.8 to 11.7%

4-5-0 .444

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Chances based on how well the Tigers finish out the regular season. Explain

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TW		W	-	L	-	T	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	Count

15		11	-	0	-	0	In		74	25	0	0									1,015
14	.5	10	-	0	-	1	In		60	37	1	2									357
14		10	-	1	-	0	99.7	%	42	46	5	6	0								8,954
		9	-	0	-	2	In		45	49	3	2									87
13	.5	9	-	1	-	1	98.5		24	52	10	13	2								3,575
		8	-	0	-	3	In		15	54	15	15									13
13		9	-	2	-	0	93.3		11	43	20	20	6	0							44,640
		8	-	1	-	2	94.3		10	46	21	17	6	0							654	*
12	.5	8	-	2	-	1	84.9		3	31	25	26	14	1	0						16,215
		7	-	1	-	3	82.3		3	24	24	31	16	2							62	*
12		8	-	3	-	0	63.3		1	14	25	23	30	6	0	0					133,963
		7	-	2	-	2	63.2		1	16	26	21	30	7	0						2,604
		6	-	1	-	4	66.7			22	33	11	33								9
11	.5	7	-	3	-	1	42.0		0	5	20	17	41	16	1	0					43,998
		6	-	2	-	3	41.9			5	23	14	42	15	1						270	*
11		7	-	4	-	0	19.7		0	1	11	7	36	35	9	0	0				269,296
		6	-	3	-	2	19.8		0	1	11	7	35	36	9	0					6,219
		5	-	2	-	4	23.5			6	12	6	41	35							17
10	.5	6	-	4	-	1	7.5			0	5	2	25	45	21	2	0				76,888
		5	-	3	-	3	10.1			0	7	3	21	50	17	2					524	*
10		6	-	5	-	0	2.1			0	2	0	9	36	40	11	1	0			374,791
		5	-	4	-	2	1.9				1	0	9	37	40	11	1				9,400
		4	-	3	-	4	Out						8	50	38	4					24
9	.5	5	-	5	-	1	0.4			0	0	0	2	21	47	26	4	0	0		92,413
		4	-	4	-	3	0.3				0	0	2	22	45	25	6				624
9		5	-	6	-	0	0.1				0	0	0	8	36	39	15	2	0	0	376,600
		4	-	5	-	2	0.1				0		0	7	37	39	14	2	0		9,427
		3	-	4	-	4	Out							12	50	31	8				26
8	.5	4	-	6	-	1	0.0				0		0	1	17	41	31	9	1	0	76,945
		3	-	5	-	3	Out							1	17	42	29	10	1		544	*
8		4	-	7	-	0	Out						0	0	7	29	39	20	4	0	267,052
		3	-	6	-	2	Out							0	7	28	40	20	4	0	6,274
		2	-	5	-	4	Out								6	29	29	18	18		17
7	.5	3	-	7	-	1	Out							0	1	11	34	36	15	2	44,213
		2	-	6	-	3	Out								1	13	34	36	14	2	247
7		3	-	8	-	0	Out							0	0	5	22	39	27	7	133,727
		2	-	7	-	2	Out								0	5	22	37	28	8	2,608
		1	-	6	-	4	Out										67		33		3
6	.5	2	-	8	-	1	Out								0	1	7	29	43	21	16,415
		1	-	7	-	3	Out									2	7	19	52	20	81
6		2	-	9	-	0	Out								0	0	3	19	43	35	44,724
		1	-	8	-	2	Out									0	3	18	42	37	710	*
5	.5	1	-	9	-	1	Out										0	5	34	61	3,558
		0	-	8	-	3	Out											13	38	50	8
5		1	-	10	-	0	Out									0	0	2	24	73	9,046
		0	-	9	-	2	Out											1	26	73	81
4	.5	0	-	10	-	1	Out											0	11	88	382
4		0	-	11	-	0	Out												6	94	1,020

Total:							11.7	%	1	3	5	4	11	16	20	17	12	7	4	2	2,080,320

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TW		W	-	L	-	T	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24

15		11	-	0	-	0	60	34	5	1
14	.5	10	-	0	-	1	20	46	24	9	1
14		10	-	1	-	0	17	40	31	10	2	0			0
		9	-	0	-	2	2	6	34	25	24	8
13	.5	9	-	1	-	1	1	10	24	33	22	7	1		1	0
		8	-	0	-	3				8	23	31	38
13		9	-	2	-	0	1	8	23	31	21	7	1	0	6	0	0
		8	-	1	-	2		0	1	11	22	32	24	4	4	1	1
12	.5	8	-	2	-	1		0	2	8	20	29	21	4	10	4	0	0
		7	-	1	-	3						19	40	23		15	3
12		8	-	3	-	0	0	0	1	6	15	22	16	3	25	10	1	0	0
		7	-	2	-	2				0	1	8	29	24	6	13	11	5	1	0	0
		6	-	1	-	4								67	11				11	11
11	.5	7	-	3	-	1			0	0	1	6	18	17	9	20	18	9	2	0	0	0
		6	-	2	-	3							6	36	0	4	7	13	18	9	4	2	0
11		7	-	4	-	0			0	0	0	2	8	9	12	27	25	13	4	1	0	0
		6	-	3	-	2						0	3	17	0	3	11	19	22	15	7	2	0	0
		5	-	2	-	4								24						41	6	18	12
10	.5	6	-	4	-	1					0	0	1	6	0	3	11	21	26	19	9	2	0	0	0
		5	-	3	-	3							0	10				3	6	16	26	20	13	4	1
10		6	-	5	-	0					0	0	0	2	0	3	11	22	27	21	10	3	1	0	0
		5	-	4	-	2							0	2		0	0	2	6	15	24	26	16	7	2	0	0
		4	-	3	-	4																8	21	46	25
9	.5	5	-	5	-	1							0	0	0	0	0	1	5	15	24	26	18	8	2	0	0	0
		4	-	4	-	3								0					0	0	2	10	20	30	23	11	3	0	0
9		5	-	6	-	0							0	0	0	0	0	1	5	14	24	26	19	9	2	0	0	0
		4	-	5	-	2								0					0	0	2	9	20	28	24	12	3	0	0	0
		3	-	4	-	4																		8	19	27	38	8
8	.5	4	-	6	-	1								0				0	0	0	2	8	19	28	25	13	4	1	0	0
		3	-	5	-	3																	2	8	17	32	25	13	3	0
8		4	-	7	-	0												0	0	0	2	7	18	28	26	14	5	1	0	0
		3	-	6	-	2															0	0	1	6	18	29	28	14	3	0
		2	-	5	-	4																					12	41	41	6
7	.5	3	-	7	-	1															0	0	1	5	16	29	29	15	4	0
		2	-	6	-	3																			0	9	23	35	26	6
7		3	-	8	-	0															0	0	1	4	15	28	30	17	5	0
		2	-	7	-	2																		0	1	6	20	35	29	8
		1	-	6	-	4																							67	33
6	.5	2	-	8	-	1																		0	1	6	20	36	30	9
		1	-	7	-	3																					2	20	41	37
6		2	-	9	-	0																		0	1	5	18	35	31	10
		1	-	8	-	2																				0	4	15	43	38
5	.5	1	-	9	-	1																				0	2	14	42	42
		0	-	8	-	3																							38	63
5		1	-	10	-	0																			0	0	2	13	42	43
		0	-	9	-	2																						5	16	79
4	.5	0	-	10	-	1																						2	24	74
4		0	-	11	-	0																						1	18	81

Total:							0	0	1	1	2	2	3	2	4	5	6	7	8	8	8	8	8	7	6	5	4	3	2	1