Chicago Cubs Playoff Chances 2018 50/50

Lost to Blue Jays 172-205, playoff odds down 10.8 to 12.4%

4-5-0 .444

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Chances based on how well the Cubs finish out the regular season. Explain

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TW		W	-	L	-	T	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	Count

15		11	-	0	-	0	In		94	6		0									1,064
14	.5	10	-	0	-	1	In		87	9		4									375
14		10	-	1	-	0	99.9	%	73	19	0	8	0								9,007
		9	-	0	-	2	In		75	22		3									73
13	.5	9	-	1	-	1	99.7		59	23	0	17	0								3,688
		8	-	0	-	3	In		58	33		8									12
13		9	-	2	-	0	96.5		33	33	1	29	3	0							44,896
		8	-	1	-	2	97.1		34	34	1	29	3	0							656
		7	-	0	-	4	In		50	50											2
12	.5	8	-	2	-	1	90.7		17	30	3	41	9	1	0						16,265
		7	-	1	-	3	89.6		16	22	3	49	9	1							77
12		8	-	3	-	0	70.0		5	21	6	38	25	5	0	0					133,857
		7	-	2	-	2	70.3		5	22	6	37	25	4	0						2,745
		6	-	1	-	4	71.4		14	14	14	29	29								7
11	.5	7	-	3	-	1	48.0		1	10	6	31	38	13	1	0					43,625
		6	-	2	-	3	42.6			10	4	29	40	15	2						277
11		7	-	4	-	0	21.3		0	3	5	14	37	31	9	1	0	0			267,851
		6	-	3	-	2	20.7		0	3	4	14	38	31	9	1					6,191
		5	-	2	-	4	23.1				8	15	38	31	8						13
10	.5	6	-	4	-	1	5.5			0	2	3	22	41	25	5	0	0			76,659
		5	-	3	-	3	5.5			1	2	3	21	40	27	6	1				559	*
10		6	-	5	-	0	1.3			0	1	1	8	28	36	20	6	1	0		375,221
		5	-	4	-	2	1.2			0	1	1	8	28	37	21	5	0	0		9,516
		4	-	3	-	4	Out							36	27	32	5				22
9	.5	5	-	5	-	1	0.1				0	0	1	7	28	38	21	5	0	0	92,005
		4	-	4	-	3	0.2				0		1	7	28	39	19	5	0		634
		3	-	3	-	5	Out								50			50			2
9		5	-	6	-	0	0.0				0	0	0	2	13	31	33	17	3	0	376,094
		4	-	5	-	2	Out						0	2	13	32	33	17	3	0	9,335
		3	-	4	-	4	Out							4	11	18	36	25	4	4	28
8	.5	4	-	6	-	1	0.0				0			0	1	11	33	39	14	1	76,701
		3	-	5	-	3	Out								2	11	33	38	15	2	494
8		4	-	7	-	0	Out							0	0	4	21	40	29	5	268,769
		3	-	6	-	2	Out								0	4	20	40	31	5	6,271
		2	-	5	-	4	Out									7	29	14	43	7	14
7	.5	3	-	7	-	1	Out								0	0	5	29	49	17	43,967
		2	-	6	-	3	Out										4	32	47	17	234
7		3	-	8	-	0	Out								0	0	2	17	49	31	134,462
		2	-	7	-	2	Out									0	1	16	49	34	2,688
		1	-	6	-	4	Out											20	60	20	5
6	.5	2	-	8	-	1	Out										0	5	41	54	16,527
		1	-	7	-	3	Out											4	48	48	79
6		2	-	9	-	0	Out										0	2	29	69	44,496
		1	-	8	-	2	Out											2	29	69	645
5	.5	1	-	9	-	1	Out										0	0	14	86	3,696
		0	-	8	-	3	Out												19	81	16
5		1	-	10	-	0	Out											0	7	93	9,071
		0	-	9	-	2	Out											1	10	88	69
4	.5	0	-	10	-	1	Out												3	97	349
4		0	-	11	-	0	Out												0	100	1,011

Total:							12.4	%	2	3	1	6	10	12	13	13	12	12	10	6	2,080,320

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TW		W	-	L	-	T	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24

15		11	-	0	-	0	63	31	6	0
14	.5	10	-	0	-	1	18	38	33	9	1	1
14		10	-	1	-	0	17	41	30	10	2	0			0	0
		9	-	0	-	2		10	19	42	19	8	1
13	.5	9	-	1	-	1	2	9	25	32	23	8	1	0	0
		8	-	0	-	3					42	25	25	8
13		9	-	2	-	0	1	8	23	31	23	9	1	0	3	0	0
		8	-	1	-	2		0	2	10	22	34	25	3	2	1	0
		7	-	0	-	4							50	50
12	.5	8	-	2	-	1		0	2	8	21	33	23	4	6	3	0	0
		7	-	1	-	3					1	16	38	35	1	5	3	1
12		8	-	3	-	0	0	0	1	6	16	25	18	3	19	9	2	0	0
		7	-	2	-	2				0	2	9	32	27	4	10	9	5	1	0	0
		6	-	1	-	4								71					29
11	.5	7	-	3	-	1			0	0	1	6	21	19	7	17	17	9	2	0	0
		6	-	2	-	3							9	34		2	9	13	13	17	3	1
11		7	-	4	-	0		0	0	0	0	3	9	9	11	25	25	13	4	1	0	0
		6	-	3	-	2						0	3	17	0	3	11	19	23	16	7	2	0	0
		5	-	2	-	4								23						15	23	23	8	8
10	.5	6	-	4	-	1					0	0	1	5	0	3	11	22	26	20	9	2	0	0
		5	-	3	-	3								6		0		2	4	18	26	22	16	6	1
10		6	-	5	-	0					0	0	0	1	0	3	11	22	28	21	10	3	1	0	0	0
		5	-	4	-	2								1		0	0	1	6	15	25	25	17	7	2	0	0
		4	-	3	-	4																18	18	32	23	9
9	.5	5	-	5	-	1								0		0	0	1	6	15	24	26	18	8	2	0	0
		4	-	4	-	3								0						1	2	9	18	33	25	9	2	1
		3	-	3	-	5																					100
9		5	-	6	-	0								0		0	0	1	5	14	24	26	19	9	2	0	0	0
		4	-	5	-	2													0	0	2	9	20	28	24	12	4	1	0
		3	-	4	-	4																		7	11	36	36	11
8	.5	4	-	6	-	1								0				0	0	0	2	8	19	28	25	13	4	1	0	0
		3	-	5	-	3																0	1	8	20	28	28	12	3
8		4	-	7	-	0												0	0	0	2	7	18	27	26	14	5	1	0	0
		3	-	6	-	2																0	1	6	17	31	28	14	3	0
		2	-	5	-	4																				7	29	50	14
7	.5	3	-	7	-	1															0	0	1	5	16	29	29	15	4	0
		2	-	6	-	3																		0	1	9	22	36	24	7
7		3	-	8	-	0														0	0	0	1	5	15	28	30	17	5	0
		2	-	7	-	2																		0	1	6	20	36	29	8
		1	-	6	-	4																						20	40	40
6	.5	2	-	8	-	1																	0	0	1	5	20	35	30	9
		1	-	7	-	3																						24	43	33
6		2	-	9	-	0																	0	0	1	5	19	35	31	10
		1	-	8	-	2																				0	3	15	43	39
5	.5	1	-	9	-	1																				0	2	15	42	41
		0	-	8	-	3																							25	75
5		1	-	10	-	0																			0	0	2	14	42	43
		0	-	9	-	2																						3	20	77
4	.5	0	-	10	-	1																						1	18	81
4		0	-	11	-	0																						1	18	82

Total:							0	0	1	1	2	3	3	2	3	5	6	7	8	8	8	8	8	7	6	5	4	3	2	1