Knights Playoff Chances 2019-2019

Beat Kodiaks 5-3, playoff odds up 11.4 to 45.2%

14 points 6 3-2

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 7/14	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Knights 5 Kodiaks 3	+10.3		+0.3
Bulldogs 3 Chaos C3 4	-3.9		-0.0
Raiders 3 Vikings 5	+2.4		+0.1
Piranhas 3 Spartans 5	-2.2		-0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Rebels vs Raiders	+4.8+2.5+2.5-5.1-5.1-5.0		+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1
Vikings vs Angry Beavers	+2.1+1.2+1.3-1.4-1.4-1.5		+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Week of 7/21	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Knights vs Bulldogs	+16.4+16.3+16.3-5.8-5.7-28.0		+0.5+0.5+0.5-0.2-0.2-0.8
Spartans vs Chaos C3	+3.4+0.6+0.6-12.5-12.6-2.1		+0.1-0.0-0.0-0.2-0.2-0.0
Piranhas vs Raiders	+13.8+11.1+11.0-1.9-2.0-2.0		+0.3+0.2+0.2-0.0-0.0-0.0
Rebels vs Angry Beavers	+1.4-0.3-0.2-4.0-4.0-3.8		+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1
Kodiaks vs Vikings	+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.0-0.1-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Chances based on how well the Knights finish out the regular season. Explain

								100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP	W		L	-	OT	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	Count

20	3	0		-	0	99.7	%	4	38	47	11	0						6,433,668
19	2	0		-	1	94.1		0	10	50	34	6	0					3,263,191
18	2	1		-	0	60.0		0	1	13	46	39	1					20,832,603
	1	0		-	2	58.4		0	1	12	46	40	1					354,340
17	1	1		-	1	30.4			0	3	27	57	13	0				4,528,277
	0	0		-	3	28.3			0	3	25	57	14	0				10,344
16	1	2		-	0	5.7				0	6	63	30	1	0			14,445,998
	0	1		-	2	4.6				0	4	56	37	2	0			196,004
15	0	2		-	1	0.2					0	11	64	25	0			1,252,504
14	0	3		-	0	0.0					0	4	50	43	4			2,681,691

Total:						45.2	%	1	5	14	25	38	13	3	0			53,998,620

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Week of 7/14	100.0*	Lottery seed
Knights 5 Kodiaks 3	-0.3
Raiders 3 Vikings 5	-0.1
Piranhas 3 Spartans 5	+0.0
Bulldogs 3 Chaos C3 4	+0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Rebels vs Raiders	-0.1-0.1-0.1+0.1+0.1+0.1
Vikings vs Angry Beavers	-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Week of 7/21	100.0*	Lottery seed
Knights vs Bulldogs	-0.5-0.5-0.5+0.2+0.2+0.8
Piranhas vs Raiders	-0.3-0.2-0.2+0.0+0.0+0.0
Spartans vs Chaos C3	-0.1+0.0+0.0+0.2+0.2+0.0
Rebels vs Angry Beavers	-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1

						100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10

20	3	0		-	0	4	38	47	11	0
19	2	0		-	1	0	10	50	34	6	0
18	2	1		-	0	0	1	13	46	39	1
	1	0		-	2	0	1	12	46	40	1
17	1	1		-	1		0	3	27	57	13	0
	0	0		-	3		0	3	25	57	14	0
16	1	2		-	0			0	6	63	30	1	0
	0	1		-	2			0	4	56	37	2	0
15	0	2		-	1				0	11	64	25	0
14	0	3		-	0				0	4	50	43	4

Total:						1	5	14	25	38	13	3	0