Chaos C3 Playoff Chances 2019-2019

Beat Bulldogs 4-3, playoff odds up 10.6 to 70.3%

14 points 7 4-0

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 7/14	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Bulldogs 3 Chaos C3 4	+14.1		+0.4
Knights 5 Kodiaks 3	-4.0		-0.1
Piranhas 3 Spartans 5	-1.1		-0.1
Raiders 3 Vikings 5	+1.1		+0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Vikings vs Angry Beavers	+2.8+2.3+2.3-2.0-2.0-2.1		+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1
Rebels vs Raiders	+1.5-0.0-0.0-2.4-2.4-1.3		+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.2-0.2-0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Week of 7/21	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Spartans vs Chaos C3	-18.2-6.8-6.8+18.7+18.8+19.5		-0.8-0.4-0.4+0.8+0.8+0.8
Knights vs Bulldogs	-5.6-5.7-5.6-0.7-0.7+10.0		-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.2
Piranhas vs Raiders	+5.8+3.8+3.8-0.8-0.8-0.8		+0.3+0.3+0.3-0.0-0.0-0.0
Rebels vs Angry Beavers	+1.1+0.3+0.4-4.6-4.6-3.0		+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1-0.1+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Chances based on how well the Chaos C3 finish out the regular season. Explain

								100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP	W		L	-	OT	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	Count

20	3	0		-	0	In		14	70	16								11,262,824
19	2	0		-	1	98.2	%	1	24	50	24	2	0					3,288,585
18	2	1		-	0	90.1		0	5	32	53	10	0					20,997,501
	1	0		-	2	58.1		0	1	13	44	39	3					284,983
17	1	1		-	1	44.7		0	0	7	37	45	10					3,631,984
	0	0		-	3	28.0				4	24	48	24	0				7,273
16	1	2		-	0	23.4			0	1	22	54	22	0				11,605,699
	0	1		-	2	5.4				0	5	46	47	1	0			138,393
15	0	2		-	1	2.6				0	3	28	65	4	0			884,944
14	0	3		-	0	0.0					0	9	70	20	0			1,896,434

Total:						70.3	%	3	18	20	30	20	9	1	0			53,998,620

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Week of 7/14	100.0*	Lottery seed
Bulldogs 3 Chaos C3 4	-0.4
Raiders 3 Vikings 5	-0.1
Knights 5 Kodiaks 3	+0.1
Piranhas 3 Spartans 5	+0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Rebels vs Raiders	-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.2+0.2+0.1
Vikings vs Angry Beavers	-0.1-0.1-0.1+0.1+0.1+0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Week of 7/21	100.0*	Lottery seed
Spartans vs Chaos C3	+0.8+0.4+0.4-0.8-0.8-0.8
Piranhas vs Raiders	-0.3-0.3-0.3+0.0+0.0+0.0
Knights vs Bulldogs	+0.1+0.1+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.2
Rebels vs Angry Beavers	-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1-0.0

						100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10

20	3	0		-	0	14	70	16
19	2	0		-	1	1	24	50	24	2	0
18	2	1		-	0	0	5	32	53	10	0
	1	0		-	2	0	1	13	44	39	3
17	1	1		-	1	0	0	7	37	45	10
	0	0		-	3			4	24	48	24	0
16	1	2		-	0		0	1	22	54	22	0
	0	1		-	2			0	5	46	47	1	0
15	0	2		-	1			0	3	28	65	4	0
14	0	3		-	0				0	9	70	20	0

Total:						3	18	20	30	20	9	1	0