New York Islanders Playoff Chances 50/50

Beat Montreal 5-4 (ot), playoff odds up 5.7 to 48.5%
50 points   23 18-4

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Monday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Montreal 4 NY Islanders 5 (ot)+5.8
+0.4
*+0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Tuesday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
NY Islanders vs New Jersey+6.4+5.8+4.9-1.6-1.7-7.6
+0.4+0.4+0.3-0.1-0.1-0.5
+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1
NY Rangers vs Philadelphia+0.1-0.6-0.5-0.4-0.6+0.2
Detroit vs Dallas-0.3-0.3-0.3+0.1+0.1+0.4
Toronto vs St. Louis-0.3-0.3-0.2+0.0+0.0+0.3

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the NY Islanders finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
124370-0In99.9%1000212,473
121340-3InYes1005*
120341-2In93.997333*
119331-3In98.2100112*
118332-2In95.6973476*
117322-3In93.296401,403*
116323-2In89.894604,157*
115313-3In85.19010011,207*
114314-2In79.28713028,466*
113304-3In71.98217167,721*
112305-2In62.976221150,544*
111295-3In52.6692920317,762*
110285-4In41.7613540636,131*
109286-3In30.85242601,213,166*
108276-4In20.943489002,213,781*
107277-3In12.8345313003,850,427*
106267-4In6.8255618106,428,186*
105268-3In3.118572410010,301,695*
104258-4100.0%1.1115431300015,869,510*
103259-3100.00.374938600023,529,251*
102249-4100.00.1342441010033,622,379*
1012410-3100.00.02334816200046,345,322*
1002310-4100.00.01244824400061,680,799*
992311-3100.00.001544328100079,320,218*
982211-499.8No09363814200098,609,651*
972111-599.4No0527402251000118,640,903*
962112-498.0No02173830112000138,159,858*
952012-594.5No011030342051000155,826,205*
942013-486.9No0052132281120000170,317,778*
931913-573.6No0021325342061000180,431,794*
921914-455.3No0161632291330000185,352,919*
911814-535.4No003824332281000184,600,287*
901815-418.7No0013153030164100178,413,175*
891715-58.0No00017213226112000167,271,287*
881716-42.7No00002112732207100152,162,988*
871616-50.7No0001517312914300134,330,058*
861617-40.2No000029243323810115,084,813*
851517-50.0No000004153132153095,654,958*
841518-40.0No0000182436246077,141,552*
831418-50.0No00000416343312060,380,593*
821419-40.0No000019284021145,835,268*
811319-5OutNo0004204231333,740,356*
801320-4OutNo0002133941524,078,000*
791220-5OutNo00183350916,669,568*
781221-4OutNo000426561411,175,456*
771121-5OutNo0021859207,259,164*
761122-4OutNo0011259284,558,655*
751123-3OutNo00856362,775,012*
741023-4OutNo00551451,630,755*
731024-3OutNo0034553925,094*
72924-4OutNo013861509,486*
71925-3OutNo013168268,576*
70825-4OutNo002574137,365*
69826-3OutNo00208067,115*
68726-4OutNo0158532,093*
67727-3OutNo0118914,401*
66627-4OutNo9916,161*
65628-3OutNo6942,638*
64528-4OutNo4961,053*
63529-3OutNo397383*
62530-2OutNo199140*
61430-3OutNo29842*
55-60OutNo10029*
50037-0OutNo0100212,473
Total:48.5%0.1%04912111211109865302,648,083,326

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the NY Islanders finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupTampa BayBostonWashingtonNew JerseyTorontoColumbusPhiladelphiaPittsburghNY RangersCarolinaDetroitFloridaMontrealOttawaBuffalo
124370-06.2%016133151414141033220
121340-3No2080
120341-23.09612279189333
119331-36.371931110121781454
118332-25.017112161313151133230
117322-36.616113151414141033220
116323-26.3016133151413141033220
115313-36.0017133151313141033220
114314-26.0017133151314131033220
113304-36.2017133151414131032220
112305-26.3017143151413131032220
111295-36.3018143151413131032220
110285-46.301815315141313932220
109286-36.201915315141313932220
108276-46.3011016215141313932210
107277-36.3011117215131312922210
106267-46.2011218215131212822110
105268-36.2011319215131212821110
104258-46.3011420215131212721110
103259-36.2011621115131111711110
102249-46.3011722115121111711110
1012410-36.3111922114121111611110
1002310-46.2112023114121010611100
992311-36.2212123114111010610000
982211-46.241222211311109500000
2110-66.241222211311109500000
972111-56.27224211121098500000
2212-36.27223211121099500000
962112-46.11132420111987400000
2011-66.11232420111987400000
952012-55.9174241719766300000
2113-36.0164241719766300000
1911-75.9185241718766300000
942013-45.5225221416554200000
1912-65.4235221416544200000
931913-54.6256181014333100000
2014-34.6256181014333100000
921914-43.523513612221100000
1813-63.423512612211100000
911814-52.21747311111000000
901815-41.21024200000000000
891816-30.5411100000000000
881716-40.2200000000000000
871717-30.0000000000000000
861617-40.0000000000000000
851618-30.0000000000000000
841518-40.000000000000000
831519-30.000000000
821419-40.00000
50-81No
Total:3.0%9.12.310.98.50.54.63.83.33.21.90.20.10.10.10.0
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Monday100.0*Lottery seed
Montreal 4 NY Islanders 5 (ot)-1.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Tuesday100.0*Lottery seed
NY Islanders vs New Jersey-1.1-1.0-0.8+0.3+0.3+1.3
NY Rangers vs Philadelphia-0.0+0.1+0.0+0.1+0.1-0.0

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT12345678910111213141516171819202122232425262728293031
124370-010000
121340-3100
120341-29433
119331-3982
118332-29613
117322-393240
116323-290460
115313-3855100
114314-27981300
113304-37210170100
112305-26313220100
111295-353172802000
110285-442193414000
109286-331214016000
108276-4212245380000
107277-31321476121100000
106267-47184610151201000
105268-331441161833010000
104258-41103321196603000000
103259-3062326171010050000000
102249-4031428131515191001000
1012410-30272681819313310200000
1002310-40132131819815710400000
992311-30011511416131514307110000
982211-400909101710216111320000
972111-50050451752582148501000
962112-40020221422386141692200000
952012-50010119016699251375100000
942013-40000040831042913169310000
931913-5000002031812482512941000000
921914-40000101050163291115125200000
911814-500000020812461519157200000
901815-4000000103014291823179310000
891715-50000000107031020251910310000
881716-400000002014112126201141000
871616-500000010014112126211131000
861617-4000000001412222721103000
851517-50000000014132428208200
841518-40000000015152628176100
831418-5000000002719302713300
821419-40000000310243223700
811319-50000151631321410
801320-40002925382430
791220-50001417383460
781221-40002103344110
771121-500152550181
761122-400021851272
751123-30011149354
741023-400643437
731024-3003365011
72924-402285417
71925-301215523
70825-400155431
69826-30105139
68726-4074648
67727-3043957
66627-433563
65628-312870
64528-412080
63529-301585
62530-211287
61430-31288
60431-21189
55-59100
50037-00100
Total:0013122426233838345555554432100