New York Islanders Playoff Chances 50/50

Lost to Carolina 2-4, playoff odds down 5.4 to 59%
24 points   11 7-2

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Sunday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Carolina 4 NY Islanders 2 -5.6
-0.4
-1.2
Anaheim 3 Florida 2 +0.2
NY Rangers 3 Ottawa 0 -0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Monday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Washington vs Calgary-0.4-0.5*-0.3*-0.1*-0.0+0.5
Minnesota vs New Jersey+0.5*+0.3-0.3*-0.3-0.4-0.4
Buffalo vs Columbus+0.3*-0.0*-0.1*-0.3*-0.3-0.2
Toronto vs Arizona-0.1*-0.2*-0.3*-0.1*+0.0+0.2
-0.1*-0.0*-0.0*+0.0*+0.0+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the NY Islanders finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
121-148InYes100401*
1204511-6In99.4%991160*
1194411-7In95.9973268*
1184412-6In99.3991443*
1174312-7In96.5982718*
1164313-6In95.197211,161*
1154213-7In93.397311,781*
1144214-6In90.095412,719*
1134114-7In86.193614,039*
1124115-6In80.3908205,760*
1114015-7In73.28611308,291*
1104016-6In65.381145011,707*
1093916-7In55.876187015,790*
1083917-6In44.16822100020,979*
1073817-7In33.26026141027,507*
1063818-6In23.05031181035,407*
1053718-7In14.14034232044,486*
1043719-6In7.631362940054,078*
1033619-7In3.622363471065,880*
1023519-8In1.2143440101077,629*
1013520-7100.0%0.4831431620089,745*
1003420-8100.00.14254322500101,956*
993421-799.90.021942278100112,721*
983321-899.7No113373313300124,348*
973322-799.1No093036196100133,467*
963222-897.4No0522362411200141,311*
953223-793.4No03153226176100145,573*
943123-884.9No019262424123000148,154*
933124-771.1No0051919271982000146,647*
923024-853.2No0313122626155100144,592*
913025-734.0No01861928231131000138,892*
902925-818.5No0043112427198200130,682*
892926-78.3No00215162626166100121,040*
882826-83.2No0102920282412300110,279*
872827-70.9No000141224292082098,870*
862727-80.3No00016172827154086,354*
852728-70.1No0003102331239173,642*
842628-80.0No0001516303015363,054*
832629-70.0No000210243424652,413*
822529-8OutNo00151734321142,679*
812530-70.0No00021130381834,288*
802430-8OutNo001724422726,989*
792431-7OutNo00418433520,898*
782331-8OutNo00212404515,621*
772332-7OutNo0018365512,003*
762232-8OutNo0530658,549*
752233-7OutNo0325726,221*
742133-8OutNo0219784,315*
732134-7OutNo114853,142*
722135-6OutNo011892,076*
712035-7OutNo08921,373*
701935-8OutNo0595851*
691936-7OutNo595539*
681836-8OutNo397339*
671837-7OutNo496210*
661737-8OutNo298125*
24-65OutNo100354*
Total:59.0%2.9%68141488776654422,723,516

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the NY Islanders finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupTampa BayTorontoNew JerseyColumbusOttawaCarolinaPittsburghDetroitWashingtonBostonNY RangersPhiladelphiaMontrealFloridaBuffalo
148620-04.6%3491349799569624
133525-5NoYes
130506-6NoYes
129496-7NoYes
126488-625.025252525
125489-510.0101010101010201010
124479-6No111111111111111111
1234710-58.381381317813884
1224610-6No3810131031081013103
1214510-78.574151031010413472334
1204511-66.9157116126511689744
1194411-77.83310105118797810442
1184412-65.42578411155124107442
1174312-76.83491051210610498432
1164313-66.5241010411106961010432
1154213-77.5259105101169689443
1144214-66.4249105101159699442
1134114-75.82510106101059598432
1124115-65.824111051010510599443
1114015-76.0241010510116105108433
1104016-66.72410115111159598433
1093916-76.2241011510105105108432
1083917-66.424111151010510598332
1073817-76.324111251111510598332
1063818-66.2241112511115104108332
1053718-76.224131241111410498332
1043719-66.223131341211410498322
1033619-76.4231414412114103108221
1023519-86.3231514312123113108221
1013520-76.3231515312123113108211
1003420-86.3331615313122112108111
993421-76.3331615213122112108111
983321-86.353161521312211298111
973322-76.263161521212210298110
963222-86.194151421111210287110
953223-75.711514132101029277100
943123-85.3135131229827265100
933124-74.513510927715154000
923024-83.41147625514133000
913025-72.1835413312122000
903026-61.2523212101011000
892926-70.5211101100000000
882927-60.2100000000000000
872827-70.100000000000000
862828-60.00000000000000
852728-70.000000000000
842628-80.00000
832831-3No00
822933-0No
812429-9No0
24-80No
Total:3.7%4.92.78.68.11.76.66.41.55.71.45.04.30.80.70.5
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Sunday100.0*Lottery seed
Carolina 4 NY Islanders 2 +1.2
NY Rangers 3 Ottawa 0 +0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Monday100.0*Lottery seed
Washington vs Calgary+0.0+0.1+0.0*+0.0*+0.0-0.1
Minnesota vs New Jersey-0.1-0.1+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Buffalo vs Columbus-0.1-0.0*-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT12345678910111213141516171819202122232425262728293031
121-148100
1204511-6991
1194411-79613
1184412-6991
1174312-79722
1164313-695221
1154213-793331
1144214-690541
1134114-786761
1124115-680108020
1114015-7731211030
1104016-665161405000
1093916-756201707000
1083917-64424210100000
1073817-73327251131010
1063818-62327282161110
1053718-7142630420212000
1043719-68232972252040000
1033619-741926102284070010
1023519-811321132012801010100
1013520-7081516151611014102000
1003420-804916918152174105000
993421-70251441717417730801000
983321-812111121571512601213000
973322-7018081110101610115360100
963222-800504712416132177101200
953223-70030131111313514121525100
943123-8001001807109816186113100
933124-70000050361031616121793000
923024-800030129111916191783100
913025-70001001606316142117931000
902925-800000403111717221911510000
892926-70000201052817232013621000
882826-800010020281622221583100
872827-700001002714212317931000
862727-80000002613212419104100
852728-7000002613212420104100
842628-80000025132225209300
832629-700002615242618720
822529-8000271727261540
812530-7000139222925102
802430-80015142831184
792431-7000282234277
782331-801414333514
772332-70029274021
762232-8015204331
752233-70002154141
742133-801104049
732134-7063558
722135-6033067
712035-7032473
701935-811881
691936-711783
681836-801089
671837-72990
661737-8991
651637-91090
641537-10595
24-63100
Total:3354344344334444444333333222211