Ottawa Senators Playoff Chances 50/50

Lost to Washington 2-5, playoff odds down 5.7 to 50.8%
22 points   8 6-6

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Wednesday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Washington 5 Ottawa 2 -5.8
-0.4
-0.7
Detroit 2 Edmonton 6 +0.6
New Jersey 2 Boston 3 (so)-0.3
Pittsburgh 2 Vancouver 5 +0.3
NY Islanders 4 Philadelphia 3 (ot)-0.3
Buffalo 4 Minnesota 5 +0.3
Florida 2 Toronto 1 (so)-0.2
Columbus 1 Calgary 0 (ot)-0.2
Nashville 3 Montreal 2 (so)*+0.1
Tampa Bay 3 Chicago 2 (ot)*-0.1
-0.1
Carolina 1 NY Rangers 6 +0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Columbus vs Ottawa-5.8-1.0-1.0+4.0+4.5+4.8
-0.4-0.0-0.1+0.2+0.3+0.3
-0.5-0.1-0.2+0.3+0.4+0.4
NY Rangers vs Detroit+0.3-0.2-0.2-0.4-0.5-0.2
Boston vs Pittsburgh-0.2-0.5-0.4-0.2-0.2+0.4
Carolina vs Toronto+0.3-0.2-0.1-0.3-0.4-0.1
New Jersey vs Vancouver-0.2-0.2-0.2*+0.0*+0.0+0.3
Washington vs Tampa Bay-0.1-0.3-0.2-0.1-0.1+0.2
+0.1*+0.0*-0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1
Buffalo vs Edmonton-0.2-0.2-0.1*+0.1*+0.0+0.2
Philadelphia vs NY Islanders+0.1-0.2-0.2-0.1-0.2*+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Ottawa finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
123-146InYes1004,659*
122479-6In99.6%1000271*
121469-7In99.6100495*
1204610-6In99.299001,010*
1194611-5In98.599011,716*
1184511-6In98.199013,077*
1174411-7In96.498125,201*
1164412-6In95.097028,838*
1154312-7In92.49613014,439*
1144313-6In89.09424023,375*
1134213-7In84.29226035,688*
1124214-6In78.38838054,353*
1114114-7In70.484511081,004*
1104115-6In61.27971400118,568*
1094015-7In51.07291800167,815*
1084016-6In39.565122310232,771*
1073916-7In28.556152810318,008*
1063917-6In18.746183320423,555*
1053817-7In10.836213940554,859*
1043818-6In5.4272344600710,079*
1033718-7In2.2192448900889,885*
1023719-6100.0%0.7122351141001,093,371*
1013619-7100.00.272152192001,317,550*
1003519-8100.00.0317512540001,556,149*
993520-7100.00.01134831610001,802,800*
983420-899.90.00943361010002,050,981*
973421-799.6No06364014300002,285,399*
963321-898.5No042942176100002,501,748*
953322-795.4No02214119114100002,686,800*
943222-888.5No0115381817830002,831,053*
933223-776.5No00932142015720002,928,776*
923123-859.5No006259192113510002,970,831*
913124-741.0No031851523211131002,963,382*
903024-824.7No011229202619820002,901,016*
893025-713.1No018141425261651002,788,670*
882925-86.3No004028192824113002,630,083*
872926-72.8No002003122529207102,435,589*
862826-81.2No001001618292714302,217,067*
852827-70.5No00000311243122711,981,034*
842727-80.2No00000151731301421,740,725*
832728-70.1No00000021026342251,497,979*
822628-80.0No00001619353091,267,066*
812629-70.0No000003133237151,053,299*
802529-80.0No000018264223860,768*
792530-70.0No00004204332689,149*
782430-8OutNo0002144242541,751*
772431-7OutNo00193852418,890*
762331-8OutNo0063361318,007*
752332-7OutNo0032769237,092*
742232-8OutNo0022276174,055*
732233-7OutNo011782124,091*
722133-8OutNo00138787,779*
712134-7OutNo099060,183*
702034-8OutNo079341,071*
692035-7OutNo059527,104*
681935-8OutNo039717,817*
671936-7OutNo29811,561*
661937-6OutNo02987,090*
651837-7OutNo1994,361*
641838-6OutNo01002,694*
631738-7OutNo01001,517*
621739-6OutNo0100894*
22-61OutNo1005,458*
Total:50.8%1.3%341517666777765454,782,366

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Ottawa finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupTampa BayColumbusNew JerseyTorontoNY IslandersBostonNY RangersCarolinaPittsburghWashingtonDetroitPhiladelphiaFloridaMontrealBuffalo
146620-06.5%386787999988441
133545-3NoYes
128517-420.02020202020
127518-3No141429141414
126486-87.17142177777147
125498-53.841212124841581248
124488-611.131010468106711714113
123489-58.529998813946104441
122479-65.218676810910888561
121469-75.936769411810689442
1204610-67.5398878988888342
1194611-56.2377878988888542
1184511-67.1377877879896652
1174411-75.9377888888887652
1164412-66.7386788888997652
1154312-76.5376888888887642
1144313-66.2376988888896652
1134213-76.1377979888896552
1124214-66.34761079877796552
1114114-76.34761179777796652
1104115-66.246612710777796652
1094015-76.2566137107777105652
1084016-66.2665146116666105652
1073916-76.3755166116666115652
1063917-66.2855185125555114652
1053817-76.2944195135555114652
1043818-66.21144214134444123652
1033718-76.31233234143333123652
1023719-66.21433243143333132652
1013619-76.31533253152222132652
1003519-86.21622262152222131652
993520-76.21722262162222131652
983420-86.31833262152222131652
973421-76.21833252152222131652
963321-86.21944243142222121642
953322-75.92044223132222111542
943222-85.5204520311222291431
933223-74.818441739111171431
923123-83.715331327111150321
913124-72.61122915111140211
903125-61.6711613000020110
893025-70.8311302000010100
883026-60.4200201000010000
872926-70.2100100000000000
862927-60.1000000000000000
852827-70.0000000000000000
842828-60.000000000000000
832728-70.00000000000
822729-60.00000000
812629-70.000000
802731-4No00000
792530-7No00
22-78No
Total:3.2%9.62.12.111.81.66.91.11.11.11.15.80.72.82.20.9
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Wednesday100.0*Lottery seed
Washington 5 Ottawa 2 +1.1
Detroit 2 Edmonton 6 -0.1
New Jersey 2 Boston 3 (so)+0.1
Tampa Bay 3 Chicago 2 (ot)+0.1
Florida 2 Toronto 1 (so)+0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday100.0*Lottery seed
Columbus vs Ottawa+1.2+0.2+0.2-0.8-0.9-0.9
Carolina vs Toronto-0.1+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Boston vs Pittsburgh+0.1+0.1+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.1
NY Rangers vs Detroit-0.1+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.0
Washington vs Tampa Bay-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.0

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT12345678910111213141516171819202122232425262728293031
123-146100
122479-61000
121469-71000
1204610-699000
1194611-599101
1184511-698101
1174411-796112
1164412-695202
1154312-7923130
1144313-6895240
1134213-7848260
1124214-67810308000
1114114-770145011000
1104115-66118701400000
1094015-7512190180000
1084016-640251202210100
1073916-7292714126100100
1063917-6192717230312000
1053817-71126183325204000
1043818-65221853293060000
1033718-7216168291460900000
1023719-611113102219100121001000
1013619-70691215221411521020000
1003519-80351282318317520400000
993520-7013113192061610506010000
983420-8001811318111215908110000
973421-7006071316717152113300000
963321-8004037183161951176010000
953322-700201317112181181192410000
943222-800101130714175141158310000
933223-70000090382121391112831000
923123-8000005014200951413149310000
913124-700030117052139171711510000
903024-80001001202094121919136200000
893025-700100701041512202116831000
882925-80000040020151220221810410000
872926-7000020000015111923201151000
862826-800010000014111924211251000
852827-7000000001411202521124100
842727-800000000141121262111300
832728-70000000001513232720820
822628-8000000261627271651
812629-700000029213025112
802529-8000014132732184
792530-700000272134278
782430-80001414323514
772431-70019274121
762331-80015214331
752332-70002154240
742232-8001103950
732233-700063459
722133-80042967
712134-7022375
702034-8011881
692035-7011485
681935-801189
671936-70892
661937-60694
651837-70496
641838-6298
631738-70298
621739-6199
611639-70100
601640-6199
591540-7199
22-58100
Total:1222344534462323333444444433322