Ottawa Senators Playoff Chances 50/50

Did not play, playoff odds down 0.3 to 60.8%
48 points   22 15-4

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Monday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Boston 0 NY Islanders 4 +0.9
+0.1
Los Angeles 1 Tampa Bay 2 -0.5
Buffalo 4 Dallas 1 -0.4
Detroit 1 Montreal 0 -0.2
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Tuesday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
St. Louis vs Ottawa-6.5-0.9-0.9+4.5+5.2+5.2
-0.4-0.1-0.1+0.3+0.3+0.3
-0.2-0.1-0.1+0.1+0.1+0.2
Calgary vs Florida+0.9+0.2+0.2-0.6-0.7-0.7
+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0
Anaheim vs Tampa Bay+0.7+0.1+0.1-0.5-0.6-0.6
Toronto vs Buffalo-0.2-0.6-0.5-0.3-0.3+0.4
Columbus vs Carolina+0.4+0.1+0.1-0.3-0.4-0.3
NY Rangers vs Dallas-0.2-0.2-0.2+0.0+0.0+0.2
Minnesota vs New Jersey+0.2+0.0+0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1

What If

Chances based on how well the Ottawa finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
130410-0In100.0%100084,248
123-128In98.710078*
122363-2In99.3991149*
121353-3In98.7991554*
120354-2In98.19911,426*
119344-3In96.598203,665*
118334-4In95.097308,731*
117335-3In91.5946019,349*
116325-4In87.3919042,073*
115326-3In81.48713086,414*
114316-4In73.781191169,377*
113317-3In64.573261318,180*
112307-4In53.9643420570,579*
111308-3In42.4544230987,538*
110298-4In31.14451501,650,518*
109288-5In20.93359702,643,838*
108289-4In12.624661104,098,770*
107279-5In6.7157015006,129,649*
1062710-4In3.197120008,862,868*
1052610-5In1.25682610012,405,936*
1042611-4In0.42643310016,809,449*
1032511-5100.0%0.115740300022,088,065*
1022512-4100.00.004946500028,123,103*
1012412-5100.00.0040528000034,733,223*
1002413-4100.00.00315613000041,654,973*
992313-599.90.002357191100048,511,256*
982314-499.7No016542621000054,871,892*
972214-598.7No010493433100060,329,415*
962215-495.9No064040363100064,487,101*
952115-589.7No3304431082000067,035,082*
942116-478.5No12142212146100067,748,814*
932016-562.5No1133711120134100066,616,038*
922017-444.2No0728182221102000063,728,076*
911917-527.4No0319051927187100059,308,420*
901918-414.8No01110212262615510053,722,259*
891818-57.0No0060162029231130047,375,579*
881819-42.9No0030031225292081040,637,171*
871719-51.1No0010015172828154033,924,939*
861720-40.3No0000002922312410227,553,230*
851620-50.1No00001414283218421,786,512*
841621-40.0No0000017213428916,760,219*
831521-50.0No0000031331361612,533,255*
821522-40.0No0000172441269,123,259*
811422-50.0No0000031742386,455,514*
801423-4OutNo00011038514,438,939*
791323-5OutNo0000631622,966,139*
781324-4OutNo000324731,924,801*
771224-5OutNo00118811,213,982*
761225-4OutNo0011287743,370*
751125-5OutNo00892440,572*
741126-4OutNo00595254,688*
731026-5OutNo0397142,060*
721027-4OutNo029876,850*
71927-5OutNo019940,131*
70928-4OutNo019920,039*
69828-5OutNo01009,957*
68829-4OutNo01004,671*
67729-5OutNo01002,084*
66730-4OutNo0100925*
65731-3OutNo0100373*
48-64OutNo10084,515*
Total:60.8%0.4%112232014777654321,016,364,880

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Ottawa finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupWashingtonColumbusMontrealPittsburghNY RangersTorontoCarolinaBostonFloridaPhiladelphiaTampa BayBuffaloDetroitNY IslandersNew Jersey
130410-06.2%242712525441622265
126-128NoYes
125371-3No333333
124372-222.21122223311
123362-31.62533146223522663
122363-28.1522520522551233334
121353-36.7232611721651723276
120354-27.9252813619561534264
119344-35.7342713523551432365
118334-46.2342813622551433275
117335-36.3242813522551433275
116325-46.3342814521551433265
115326-36.2342915521551333365
114316-46.33421016520541332265
113317-36.24521017519541232264
112307-46.24521119518441232254
111308-36.25621220517441122254
110298-46.25611321616441022243
109288-56.3671142261543922243
108289-46.3672152371344822233
107279-56.2672152391254722232
1062710-46.36721522101154632232
1052610-56.26731421131065532222
1042611-46.3664131915975533221
1032511-56.2555111718886443321
1022512-46.2456101420697354311
1012412-56.3448812235118354411
1002413-46.2331069254129265411
992313-56.22212572731310265411
982314-46.22213352921410175510
972214-56.22215332911411176500
962215-46.03315222811410076500
2114-66.03315222811310076500
952115-55.6441421260129075500
2216-35.6441421250129075500
942116-44.9451221220118064400
932016-53.94492117086054300
922017-42.83361012064032200
911917-51.7224108043022100
901918-40.9112005021011100
891818-50.4001002011010000
881819-40.2000001000000000
871719-50.100000000000000
861720-40.0000000000000
851620-50.000000000000
841621-40.00000000000
831622-30.00000000
821522-40.0000000
811422-5No00
48-80No
Total:3.8%2.42.67.33.03.815.61.77.45.71.03.93.12.70.40.3
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Monday100.0*Lottery seed
Boston 0 NY Islanders 4 -0.1
Detroit 1 Montreal 0 -0.1
Los Angeles 1 Tampa Bay 2 +0.1
Buffalo 4 Dallas 1 +0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Tuesday100.0*Lottery seed
St. Louis vs Ottawa+1.1+0.2+0.2-0.8-0.9-0.9
Toronto vs Buffalo+0.1+0.1+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.1
Calgary vs Florida-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Anaheim vs Tampa Bay-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
130410-01000
124-128100
123362-3982
122363-2991
121353-39911
120354-29801
119344-396120
118334-495230
117335-392360
116325-487490
115326-38151300
114316-474719010
113317-3659260100
112307-454113402000
111308-342124203000
110298-4311351040000
109288-5211259160100
108289-41311641803000
107279-5796739050000
1062710-436655101900000
1052610-5146089115010000
1042611-40251128223010000
1032511-501411662320201000
1022512-40029193240120200000
1012412-500192122472305000000
1002413-400112011495309000000
992313-500617014610311601010000
982314-402130038162124020100000
972214-50190027221131130301000
962215-400500162501363306031000
952115-503007230035821100820000
942116-4010318002814211111461000
932016-5010112001818111012013410000
922017-4000700919006221211030000
911917-5000304160032162620820000
901918-40010110001192226187200000
891818-50000600013132426177200000
881819-40000300015142425178200000
871719-5000100001614232518931000
861720-4000000000161423251893000
851620-50000000161423261982000
841621-40000000016152527187100
831521-50000002717272716400
821522-400000282031261110
811422-50000131227342040
801423-400001518353191
791323-500002103040162
781324-400152243254
771224-500021442358
761225-400018364213
751125-5004294720
741126-402214928
731026-501154737
721027-400104446
71927-5063855
70928-4043264
69828-5022672
68829-411980
67729-501684
66730-401189
65731-31792
64631-4694
63632-31090
62532-4496
59-61100
48041-00100
Total:00661014910136103166544332211100