Vancouver Canucks Playoff Chances 50/50

Lost to Chicago 2-4, playoff odds down 8 to 41.8%
50 points   22 20-6

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Sunday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup
Chicago 4 Vancouver 2 -7.2
-0.5
Minnesota 2 Nashville 4 -0.7
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Monday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup
Toronto vs Calgary+1.3+0.1+0.2-1.0-1.0-1.0
+0.1*+0.0*+0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1
NY Rangers vs Los Angeles+1.3+0.2+0.2-0.9-1.0-1.0
+0.1*+0.0*+0.0-0.1-0.0-0.1
Winnipeg vs Anaheim-0.3-0.6-0.6*-0.1-0.1+0.6
Colorado vs San Jose+0.2*-0.0*+0.0-0.1-0.2-0.2
Arizona vs Florida-0.0*-0.1*-0.0*+0.0*+0.0+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Vancouver finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
118340-0In94.1%10003,889
114311-2In71.486147*
113312-1In60.0901010*
112302-2In36.6952241*
111292-3In27.68020152*
110293-2In16.775240359*
109283-3In11.168302880*
108284-2In6.65936402,299*
107274-3In2.65043705,013*
106275-2In1.0385011010,535*
105265-3In0.32854181020,942*
104255-4In0.11955242039,181*
103256-3In0.01153324070,289*
102246-4In0.064739800120,782*
101247-3In0.0338451310197,027*
100237-4100.0%No1294721300307,943*
99238-3100.0No0204529500462,847*
98228-4100.0No01240371000667,667*
97229-3100.0No0732431710923,449*
96219-499.9No0323452540001,234,256*
952110-399.4No115423381001,586,516*
942010-498.0No1935391520001,968,202*
932011-394.5No0427392450002,349,484*
921911-487.4No02183433112002,715,627*
911912-375.5No01112638205003,026,275*
901812-459.7No00617372910203,259,946*
891813-342.4No00393035184003,399,967*
881713-426.7No00142136279103,429,931*
871714-314.8No01213313417303,340,575*
861614-47.1No00162337266003,155,118*
851615-33.0No000315353512002,878,899*
841515-41.1No00018284121102,545,108*
831516-30.3No0004204331202,180,828*
821416-40.1No0002134041401,804,470*
811417-30.0No000173351801,444,540*
801317-40.0No00425571311,120,151*
791318-30.0No0021860201840,300*
781218-4OutNo011158282610,953*
771219-3OutNo00753355427,099*
761119-4OutNo00446438290,058*
751120-3OutNo02384812190,311*
741020-4OutNo01305218119,769*
731021-3OutNo0022532473,147*
72921-4OutNo016523343,010*
71922-3OutNo011484124,468*
70822-4OutNo07435013,473*
69823-3OutNo438587,064*
68723-4OutNo331663,616*
67724-3OutNo126731,591*
66624-4OutNo01981810*
65625-3OutNo01881344*
64626-2OutNo1989137*
63526-3OutNo99170*
50-62OutNo1003,915*
Total:41.8%0.0%014101214151514113046,923,340

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Vancouver finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupMinnesotaChicagoSan JoseAnaheimEdmontonNashvilleSt. LouisLos AngelesCalgaryWinnipegDallasArizonaColorado
118340-06.7%011281391114177800
114311-2No141414142914
113312-1No20203030
112302-29.85151720121715
111292-35.3199131013171478
110293-24.2111917511181447
109283-36.9011112179101416650
108284-26.50113121781014146500
107274-35.7011514167914145500
106275-26.2011516197812134400
105265-36.3011818206711113400
104255-46.2011920215710103300
103256-36.10121222356992200
102246-46.30123242345882200
101247-36.31124262434872200
100237-46.21126272523761100
99238-36.21127282522661100
98228-46.22227282511651100
97229-36.24228282511550000
96219-46.26328282411540000
952110-36.29527262310440000
209-56.29527262310440000
942010-46.213726242010330000
2111-26.212726252110430000
199-66.114726242010330000
932011-35.917924221810320000
1910-55.918924211710220000
2112-15.918924211710220000
921911-45.5221120171410210000
2012-25.6211121181410210000
1810-65.4221120161310110000
911912-34.8231116131000110000
1811-54.7231116121000110000
1710-74.7231116131000110000
901812-43.72210129700000000
1913-23.92210129700100000
1711-63.62110118600000000
891813-32.718886400000000
1712-52.617875400000000
881713-41.712543200000000
871714-30.97321100000000
861614-40.43111000000000
851615-30.22100000000000
841515-40.1100000000000
831516-30.00000000000
821416-40.0000000000
811417-30.000000000
801317-40.000000
791419-1No0
50-78No
Total:2.6%9.24.49.78.57.00.30.21.11.00.10.10.00.0
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Sunday100.0*Lottery seed
Chicago 4 Vancouver 2 +1.1
NY Islanders 2 Philadelphia 3 (ot)+0.1
Minnesota 2 Nashville 4 +0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Monday100.0*Lottery seed
NY Rangers vs Los Angeles-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Toronto vs Calgary-0.1+0.0-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Colorado vs San Jose-0.1+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0
Winnipeg vs Anaheim-0.0+0.1+0.0+0.0+0.0-0.0

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
118340-09460
114311-2711414
113312-1603010
112302-2375922
111292-32853181
110293-217592310
109283-3115727311
108284-27533332200
107274-33473763300
106275-2137391137100
105265-3027381631220100
104255-4019342121740110
103256-301127261228022000
102246-4061928124121250000
101247-303122602318331000100
100237-416220202172171021000
99238-3031701420112252033000
98228-401110917151315046000
97229-3007041117033814121000
96219-4003261603011442131000
952110-3011212023127330531000
942010-40101801510112377820000
932011-30000408613138717410000
921911-4000243120345286420000
911912-30001119026235786310000
901812-4000006017136510128410000
891813-30000030903028141611520000
881713-400001040211310171914620000
871714-3000120130141220221682000
861614-400001600151322241782000
851615-300000300015142325188200
841515-40001000026152526176100
831516-300000002717282715400
821416-400000029213126910
811417-3000000131328341920
801317-400001620373160
791318-300002113342111
781218-400162548192
771219-300021649283
761119-40011046376
751120-3005394511
741020-4002315017
731021-301235223
72921-400165132
71922-30114841
70822-4074449
69823-3043858
68723-433266
67724-312673
66624-401981
65625-301881
64626-21989
63526-3991
50-62100
Total:00010112042311111322345666665420