Washington Capitals Playoff Chances 50/50

Did not play, playoff odds up 0.3 to 45.2%
7 points   3 3-1

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Wednesday100.0*Chance in playoffs
Los Angeles 5 Montreal 1 +0.2
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Thursday100.0*Chance in playoffs
Calgary vs Carolina+0.5*+0.0*+0.0-0.3-0.4-0.4
Philadelphia vs Nashville-0.4-0.4*-0.2*+0.1*-0.0+0.5
Columbus vs Tampa Bay-0.2-0.5-0.4*+0.0*+0.1+0.3
NY Rangers vs NY Islanders+0.2*-0.3*-0.2*-0.3-0.4*-0.0
Boston vs Vancouver-0.3*-0.2*+0.1*-0.1*-0.1+0.3

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Washington finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
122-157InYes100350*
1215314-8In99.1%991115*
1205315-7In98.89911167*
1195215-8In98.59910272*
1185216-7In99.21000388*
1175116-8In96.49811675*
1165117-7In95.298111,013*
1155017-8In92.996211,488*
1145018-7In89.6943302,188*
1134918-8In86.192443,085*
1124818-9In80.6905504,498*
1114819-8In74.0867706,149*
1104719-9In64.480101008,409*
1094720-8In54.27313131011,407*
1084620-9In43.46616171014,853*
1074621-8In32.55720212019,354*
1064521-9In21.84723263024,585*
1054522-8In13.938253250030,783*
1044422-9100.0%7.1282736810038,175*
1034423-8In3.3202740122045,938*
1024323-9100.01.31325421630054,997*
1014324-8100.00.3723432251064,384*
1004224-999.90.1418412781074,430*
994225-899.70.021437321230084,681*
984125-999.30.011032351751094,601*
974126-898.0No0625362292000104,541*
964026-995.2No04193425144100113,140*
954027-889.5No021330252082000120,567*
943927-979.1No0182421251551000127,565*
933928-864.6No0518162621103100131,428*
923828-946.9No00313922261872000133,953*
913829-829.6No0185152624145100134,560*
903729-916.3No01529212721113100132,780*
893730-87.7No00214142426188200129,849*
883630-93.2No00102718262515510124,108*
873631-81.2No01013112228221020118,026*
863531-90.4No00000161626281751109,151*
853532-80.1No000002921302411299,766*
843432-90.0No00001515283017490,308*
833433-80.0No00029233325780,320*
823333-90.0No000151733331370,385*
813334-8OutNo00021129381960,215*
803234-9OutNo001623412851,605*
793235-8OutNo00417423743,456*
783135-9OutNo00212394735,791*
773136-8OutNo0018365629,069*
763036-9OutNo05306523,474*
753037-8OutNo003257218,516*
742937-9OutNo02197914,243*
732938-8OutNo01168410,679*
722838-9OutNo0112888,231*
712839-8OutNo008915,994*
702739-9OutNo006944,407*
692740-8OutNo05953,246*
682640-9OutNo03972,308*
672641-8OutNo2981,596*
662541-9OutNo1991,085*
652542-8OutNo199686*
642442-9OutNo298446*
632443-8OutNo0100290*
7-62OutNo100747*
Total:45.2%2.1%45111277777777762,723,516

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Washington finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupTorontoTampa BayColumbusNew JerseyPhiladelphiaOttawaPittsburghCarolinaDetroitBostonFloridaNY IslandersBuffaloMontrealNY Rangers
157750-03.7%49106135874659662
1285711-7NoYes
1275712-6No5050
1265612-7No331111111122
1255411-10No141472121777
1245513-715.851121111155511115
1235413-83.31332313133103737
1225414-75.34421111218164477545
1215314-84.3481081512994312643
1205315-74.252109125985747826
1195215-85.9367796987667647
1185216-76.26599105978656543
1175116-84.35411996896658537
1165117-75.4559109510105557446
1155017-85.6561010951085558546
1145018-76.4559111051095458446
1134918-86.345109106995559546
1124818-95.6541091051096559446
1114819-85.75510101051095558446
1104719-96.14411101051095559446
1094720-86.14411111151095458446
1084620-96.144111110410105448436
1074621-86.244111211411104448436
1064521-95.944121211411104448336
1054522-86.134131312411104338336
1044422-96.233131412312113339326
1034423-86.433141413312113339226
1024323-96.133151513312113239225
1014324-86.433151513313123229225
1004224-96.333151513313122229215
994225-86.233151513313122229115
984125-96.144151512312112229115
974126-86.154141412312113228115
964026-96.165141411311103228114
4127-76.065141311311103228114
954027-85.66513131041093227114
943927-94.965111193883225113
933928-84.1649973762224112
923828-93.0437752542113112
913829-81.9324431331112001
903729-91.1212221211001001
893730-80.5111110110000000
883630-90.2000000000000000
873631-80.1000000000000000
863531-90.000000000000000
853532-80.00000000000000
843432-90.00000000000
833534-6No00000
823535-5No000
7-81No
Total:2.8%2.42.16.46.35.31.65.24.71.41.21.13.60.80.72.2
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

WednesdayNone
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Thursday100.0*Lottery seed
Columbus vs Tampa Bay+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.0-0.0-0.1
Calgary vs Carolina-0.1*+0.0*+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.0
Philadelphia vs Nashville+0.0+0.1+0.0*-0.0*+0.0-0.1
Ottawa vs New Jersey-0.1+0.0-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.0
NY Rangers vs NY Islanders-0.0*+0.0*+0.0*+0.0+0.1+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT12345678910111213141516171819202122232425262728293031
122-157100
1215314-8991
1205315-79911
1195215-899010
1185216-79910
1175116-896211
1165117-795211
1155017-893321
1145018-79053300
1134918-886644
1124818-98195050
1114819-874117070
1104719-9641510010000
1094720-85419130130010
1084620-94323150170010
1074621-83325191201020
1064521-9222521224113000
1054522-81424223273250000
1044422-9721225275308001000
1034423-8316207269501100200
1024323-911216922128015103000
1014324-80711111515121192105010
1004224-9047129161512142080100
994225-802410414163207501203000
984125-901281101461611801615010
974126-801606109914121193902000
964026-9003036104131421871314100
954027-80020139110145141118282000
943927-9001017061088131951451000
933928-800004036103131511191141000
923828-900003139198141919114100
913829-80001017053131321191141000
903729-90010040219615222013520000
893730-80000201042715222115731000
883630-9000010020271421221794100
873631-8001001002613202219114100
863531-9000000002512202320125100
853532-8000000001511202420125100
843432-9000000151220242112410
833433-80000015122226201030
823333-900000261524271871
813334-8000028182826133
803234-900014112431226
793235-8001618323112
783135-9000311283820
773136-80016224130
763036-90003164041
753037-8001113750
742937-90163162
732938-80042669
722838-90022276
712839-8011683
702739-9011288
692740-80991
682640-90694
672641-8595
662541-9397
652542-8298
642442-9298
632443-8199
622444-71100
7-61100
Total:2222333233324343444444444444333