"...per the brilliant Sports Club Stats"
(thank you Mr. Dater)

Washington Capitals Playoff Chances 50/50

Did not play, playoff odds down 1.2 to 73.9%
41 points   20 12-1

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Friday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
NY Rangers 4 Los Angeles 2 -0.5
+0.1
Buffalo 4 Carolina 5 (ot)-0.4
New Jersey 5 Dallas 2 -0.3
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Washington vs Anaheim+4.1+4.1+3.6-0.6-0.6-5.1
+0.3+0.3+0.2-0.0-0.0-0.3
+0.9+0.9+0.7-0.3-0.3-1.0
NY Islanders vs Los Angeles-0.5-0.5-0.4+0.1+0.1+0.6
+0.1*+0.0*-0.0-0.0-0.1-0.0
Arizona vs Pittsburgh+0.6+0.1+0.1-0.4-0.4-0.5
Philadelphia vs Dallas-0.5-0.5-0.4+0.1+0.1+0.6
Boston vs NY Rangers+0.4-0.1-0.1-0.3-0.4-0.2
Carolina vs Columbus-0.0-0.4-0.4-0.2-0.2+0.2
Ottawa vs Montreal+0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.2-0.0
Colorado vs Tampa Bay+0.3+0.0+0.0-0.2-0.2-0.2
Calgary vs Nashville+0.1*+0.0+0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1
St. Louis vs Winnipeg-0.0-0.1-0.0-0.0*-0.0+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Washington finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
123-139InYes1006,577*
122386-5In99.5%991770*
121387-4In99.19911,590*
120377-5In98.79913,071*
119378-4In97.898205,830*
118368-5In97.0982010,720*
117369-4In95.5973019,208*
116359-5In93.4955032,605*
1153510-4In90.2937054,301*
1143410-5In86.1919187,696*
1133411-4In81.1881110137,023*
1123311-5In74.4831520206,661*
1113211-6In66.3781930305,848*
1103212-5In56.97323400437,990*
1093112-6In46.36628600608,776*
1083113-5In35.55833900828,456*
1073013-6In25.0503713001,095,919*
1063014-5In15.94141171001,409,438*
1052914-6In8.93243232001,767,068*
1042915-5100.0%4.324432940002,163,629*
1032815-6100.01.716423570002,579,338*
1022816-5100.00.51038401110003,005,448*
1012716-6100.00.1632441620003,414,287*
1002717-5100.00.0325442350003,786,919*
992617-699.90.0118413091004,106,981*
982618-599.80.001135351530004,343,069*
972518-699.2No0727372261004,489,164*
962519-597.8No031936281120004,531,268*
952419-694.4No021230321951004,470,153*
942420-587.4No0172331271020004,308,229*
932320-675.4No00315253218510004,057,023*
922321-558.5No01917312712300003,738,115*
912221-639.2No0059253220710003,362,717*
902222-522.2No00241630281541002,959,845*
892122-610.3No001182231241030002,542,714*
882123-53.9No000031327301971002,136,038*
872023-61.2No00016183027144001,755,071*
862024-50.3No00002102431238101,408,686*
851924-60.1No0001516293016401,106,657*
841925-50.0No00002823332581846,912*
831825-60.0No00014153133152634,203*
821826-50.0No000292637234464,868*
811726-6OutNo00141837328332,131*
801727-5OutNo00212334013231,617*
791627-6OutNo0017274520158,403*
781628-5OutNo003204729104,710*
771528-6OutNo00214473867,913*
761529-5OutNo019434743,131*
751429-6OutNo005385626,945*
741430-5OutNo03326516,096*
731330-6OutNo225739,451*
721331-5OutNo0120795,560*
711231-6OutNo016843,015*
701232-5OutNo012871,691*
691132-6OutNo0793910*
681133-5OutNo694432*
671134-4OutNo595222*
661034-5OutNo298107*
41-65OutNo1006,057*
Total:73.9%3.1%71318161197643221074,239,272

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Washington finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupTampa BayColumbusNew JerseyTorontoBostonNY RangersNY IslandersPhiladelphiaPittsburghCarolinaMontrealDetroitOttawaFloridaBuffalo
139490-06.2%010104413121011954431
130433-3NoYes
129423-4No5050
128424-3No2020202020
127414-4No1818992799
126415-38.311381711111736113
125405-46.9113118156131474333
124406-35.8112946161189935421
123396-45.613113414101291063311
122386-56.509125412121213734340
121387-46.40101135121310111044430
120377-55.90101044121411121044330
119378-46.20111134131310111054330
118368-56.20111134131210111054320
117369-46.10111034131310111044330
116359-56.20111134131211111044330
1153510-46.30111134131310111044330
1143410-56.11111134131310111044330
1133411-46.20111134131310111044330
1123311-56.20111133131311111044330
1113211-66.30121233131310111043320
1103212-56.20121233131310111043320
1093112-66.20121233131310111043320
1083113-56.30131333131310101033220
1073013-66.3014143313131010933220
1063014-56.2015142314131010933220
1052914-66.2015152314141010932220
1042915-56.301616221414910922210
1032815-66.31171722141499922110
1022816-56.21181822141499822110
1012716-66.21191822141499821110
1002717-56.32191911141499811110
992617-66.24201921141388811110
982618-56.26201921131388711100
972518-66.29191922121288711000
962519-56.113191822111177610000
952419-65.917171732101066510000
942420-55.5211515328855410000
932320-64.7231212326633300000
922321-53.72199324422200000
912221-62.51666212211100000
902222-51.41033111111100000
892122-60.6511000000000000
882123-50.2201000000000000
872023-60.1100000000000000
862024-50.0000000000000000
852025-40.000000000000
841925-50.000000000000
831825-6No0000
821826-50.00
41-81No
Total:4.6%8.113.012.71.81.68.88.75.65.65.11.00.80.60.50.1
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Friday100.0*Lottery seed
New Jersey 5 Dallas 2 +0.1
NY Rangers 4 Los Angeles 2 +0.1
Buffalo 4 Carolina 5 (ot)+0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday100.0*Lottery seed
Washington vs Anaheim-0.9-0.9-0.8+0.2+0.2+1.1
NY Islanders vs Los Angeles+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.0-0.0-0.1
Boston vs NY Rangers-0.1+0.0-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Carolina vs Columbus-0.1+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.0
Arizona vs Pittsburgh-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Philadelphia vs Dallas+0.1+0.1+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT12345678910111213141516171819202122232425262728293031
123-139100
122386-5991
121387-49901
120377-59901
119378-498020
118368-597120
117369-496130
116359-593250
1153510-490370
1143410-586491
1133411-4816110100
1123311-5749150200
1113211-666121903000
1103212-5571623040000
1093112-6462027160000
1083113-53623311900000
1073013-625253521210000
1063014-516253641610010000
1052914-69233581931020000
1042915-54203211216204000000
1032815-621526162111406000000
1022816-51101919181660101010000
1012716-606112012229114200200000
1002717-50361972411217610500000
992617-601315321125171220811000
982618-50011011610913193013230000
972518-60060106118235116660100
962519-5003053113237316121012000
952419-6002021911875122015451000
942420-50010106011587241610930000
932320-60000030528223131914720000
922321-50000102161167251514831000
912221-6000001040922311181710410000
902222-5000000204016514211912510000
892122-600001010816152222146200000
882123-500000000302715232316821000
872023-6000001002715232417831000
862024-50000000261523241883000
851924-60000000261524251882000
841925-5000000027162526166100
831825-6000002818272514400
821826-50001310223023910
811726-6000151528311740
801727-50002821332781
791627-60013143135152
781628-500182539244
771528-60041739337
761529-500211354011
751429-6016294618
741430-5003224925
731330-601165132
721331-500114741
711231-6074251
701232-543858
691132-623265
681133-522474
671134-412079
661034-51981
65934-61585
64935-5100
63835-62575
62735-73367
41-61100
Total:3476473457225745333332222111000