New York Islanders Playoff Chances

Lost to Montreal 3-4 (so), playoff odds down 1.8 to 85.4%
18 points   8 4-2

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Monday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
NY Islanders 3 Montreal 4 (so)-0.7
*-0.1
-0.7
Washington 4 Edmonton 2 -0.2
Boston 2 Dallas 1 (ot)*-0.2
Pittsburgh 1 New Jersey 5 +0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Arizona vs Philadelphia+0.2*-0.0*+0.0*-0.1-0.2-0.2
-0.1*-0.1*-0.1*+0.1*-0.0+0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Tuesday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Columbus vs Dallas-0.2-0.2*-0.1*+0.0*+0.0+0.3
St. Louis vs Carolina+0.3*-0.1*-0.1*-0.2-0.3-0.3
Ottawa vs New Jersey+0.2*-0.0*-0.2*-0.2-0.2-0.1
NY Rangers vs Montreal*-0.0-0.2*-0.1*-0.0*-0.1+0.1
+0.1*+0.0*+0.1*-0.1*-0.1-0.1
Toronto vs Vegas-0.1*-0.1*-0.0*+0.1*+0.0+0.1
Tampa Bay vs Edmonton-0.1*-0.1-0.1*+0.1*-0.0+0.2

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the NY Islanders finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
128-154InYes100523*
1275110-7In99.3%991139*
1265111-6In99.6100260*
1255112-5In99.61000454*
1245012-6In99.2100743*
1235013-5In99.210001,193*
1224913-6In98.210001,912*
1214813-7In97.810003,031*
1204814-6In96.9100004,416*
1194714-7In95.599106,529*
1184715-6In93.599109,361*
1174615-7In90.3972013,233*
1164616-6In86.89730018,739*
1154516-7In82.0955024,715*
1144517-6In75.8927132,846*
1134417-7In68.989101042,675*
1124418-6In60.685132053,993*
1114318-7In51.480173067,556*
1104319-6In41.074224082,546*
1094219-7In31.067285099,349*
1084119-8In22.05934800116,928*
1074120-7In14.150401000134,867*
1064020-8In8.140451410152,463*
1054021-7In4.131491810170,508*
1043921-8In1.7225223200186,537*
1033922-7In0.6155228400200,247*
1023822-8In0.2105034600210,416*
1013823-7100.0%0.0546389100220,039*
1003723-8100.00.03404214200222,642*
993724-7100.0No13243193000222,922*
983624-899.9No02543256100218,977*
973625-799.6No018403093000211,469*
963525-898.6No0123534125100201,201*
953526-796.2No08293614103100188,289*
943426-890.9No04223614147200173,068*
933427-781.2No215321319135100156,195*
923327-867.2No11027102020103000138,848*
913328-750.5No162061824177200120,980*
903228-833.4No03143132524134100103,379*
893229-719.9No01918212720920088,070*
883129-810.1No0150414262616510073,194*
873130-74.8No0030282129231130059,442*
863030-82.1No010141426291861047,679*
853031-70.8No010028203025123038,047*
842931-80.3No00014132730196129,422*
832932-70.1No0001821312611222,422*
822832-80.0No001414293317316,676*
812833-70.0No00029243524612,487*
802733-8OutNo014183432118,967*
792734-7OutNo002123138176,414*
782634-8OutNo0162743234,417*
772635-7OutNo0042042333,159*
762535-8OutNo031443402,092*
752536-7OutNo01939501,441*
742436-8OutNo163459924*
732437-7OutNo022969613*
722337-8OutNo042274374*
712338-7OutNo01981226*
702339-6OutNo1585141*
692239-7OutNo158596*
682139-8OutNo118955*
672039-9OutNo39729*
662040-8OutNo89226*
18-65OutNo100355*
Total:85.4%7.8%1824221444433211104,230,956

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the NY Islanders finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupTampa BayBostonTorontoMontrealPittsburghNew JerseyWashingtonBuffaloColumbusCarolinaFloridaNY RangersPhiladelphiaOttawaDetroit
154680-09.5%599697888884452
135567-5NoYes
134579-2NoYes
133558-5No5050
1325610-2No1717173317
131549-59.19927918999
1305410-43.777747411117711114
129529-73.764713116461176974
1285311-48.4126510578115610547
1275110-711.56941496886476662
1265111-611.257677712118665563
1255112-511.035988891186104541
1245012-610.9577979798885643
1235013-510.14788887109685552
1224913-610.84778898117776542
1214813-711.04779878107785562
1204814-611.5487878897775553
1194714-711.65779789107775552
1184715-611.6478988897775562
1174615-711.05779878107785552
1164616-611.74789878107775552
1154516-711.55789788107785552
1144517-611.04789888107775552
1134417-711.35789888107775552
1124418-611.35789878107775552
1114318-711.25889888107775552
1104319-610.95889888107775552
1094219-710.8588988897775552
1084119-810.7588988897765442
1074120-710.8588999897764442
1064020-810.6588999997764441
1054021-710.45889109987754441
1043921-810.4578910101088854431
1033922-710.3577811111178854431
1023822-810.1467712121268845431
1013823-79.8466713131369945421
1003723-89.7455614141359935521
993724-79.534551515144101035521
983624-89.334441615153101025510
973625-79.033431616163111026510
963525-88.943331616162111016510
953526-78.553331616152101016510
943426-87.86443151514110915500
933427-77.0744313131218814400
923327-85.7744210101016603300
913328-74.3633277715402200
903228-82.8522154403302100
893229-71.6311133302201100
883230-60.8111011101100000
873130-70.4100011100000000
863131-60.200000000000000
853031-70.100000000000
843032-60.00000000000
832932-70.0000000000
822933-6No00
812631-11No0
18-80No
Total:8.4%4.35.05.05.310.810.610.44.67.67.43.14.24.02.10.8
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Monday100.0*Lottery seed
NY Islanders 3 Montreal 4 (so)+0.2
Washington 4 Edmonton 2 +0.1
Pittsburgh 1 New Jersey 5 -0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Tuesday100.0*Lottery seed
Ottawa vs New Jersey-0.1-0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Columbus vs Dallas+0.0+0.1+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1
St. Louis vs Carolina-0.1*+0.0*+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT12345678910111213141516171819202122232425262728293031
128-154100
1275110-7991
1265111-61000
1255112-510000
1245012-6991
1235013-59910
1224913-69820
1214813-79820
1204814-697300
1194714-795410
1184715-693510
1174615-790720
1164616-687103000
1154516-78213500
1144517-67616701
1134417-76920100100
1124418-661241302000
1114318-751291703000
1104319-641332114000
1094219-731362615000
1084119-8223631371000
1074120-71436355811000
1064020-8832369103101000
1054021-74273614114301000
1043921-822133191175020000
1033922-7115272510108030000
1023822-8092130713121510000
1013823-705143241516362101000
1003723-803832214196742020000
993724-7142811219117750300000
983624-8022308171851091511000
973625-701170512233121326320000
963525-80012027251111667550100
953526-7008132409151259823100
943426-800401200512193119562000
933427-7020014037221118101162000
923327-810091322095151311620000
913328-71006011906216111613731000
903228-8000300140311361418159310000
893229-701009108281720171041000
883129-801005000413101822191151000
873130-700003002014101923201251000
863030-8001010014111923211252000
853031-70100001411192421125100
842931-8000001512202421114100
832932-700000151322252010310
822832-800002615242518820
812833-70000281926251441
802733-80141123282392
792734-70016172729174
782634-8002102432256
772635-7001517333212
762535-800210303819
752536-7016234227
742436-804154437
732437-702113651
722337-8193357
712338-743462
702339-6112276
692239-712079
682139-81189
672039-9793
662040-81585
18-65100
Total:8101213356723452222222211111110000