Tampa Bay Lightning Playoff Chances 50/50

Beat Chicago 3-2 (ot), playoff odds up 1.9 to 93.8%
34 points   16 3-2

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Wednesday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Tampa Bay 3 Chicago 2 (ot)+1.7
+0.1
+3.1
Detroit 2 Edmonton 6 +0.2
Washington 5 Ottawa 2 +0.1
+0.1
New Jersey 2 Boston 3 (so)-0.1
Buffalo 4 Minnesota 5 +0.1
-0.1
Pittsburgh 2 Vancouver 5 +0.1
Florida 2 Toronto 1 (so)*-0.1
*+0.1
NY Islanders 4 Philadelphia 3 (ot)*-0.1
*-0.1
Nashville 3 Montreal 2 (so)*+0.1
-0.2
Columbus 1 Calgary 0 (ot)*-0.1
Carolina 1 NY Rangers 6 +0.1
Anaheim 2 Vegas 4 -0.1
Arizona 1 San Jose 3 -0.1
Los Angeles 1 Winnipeg 2 -0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Washington vs Tampa Bay-1.9-0.2-0.2+1.3+1.4+1.5
-0.1*-0.0*-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
-4.1-0.8-0.8+2.9+3.3+3.4
Columbus vs Ottawa+0.1-0.0*-0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1
-0.2-0.2-0.1*+0.0*-0.0+0.2
Boston vs Pittsburgh-0.1-0.1-0.1*-0.0-0.1+0.1
NY Rangers vs Detroit+0.1-0.0-0.0-0.1-0.1-0.0
Carolina vs Toronto+0.1-0.1*-0.0-0.1-0.1-0.0
+0.1*-0.0*+0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1
New Jersey vs Vancouver-0.1-0.1-0.1*+0.0*-0.0+0.1
-0.1-0.2-0.2*+0.1*-0.0+0.2
Buffalo vs Edmonton-0.1-0.1-0.0*+0.0*+0.0+0.1
Philadelphia vs NY Islanders+0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1*+0.0
+0.2*+0.0*-0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1
St. Louis vs Nashville-0.3-0.5-0.4*-0.0-0.1+0.4
Anaheim vs Winnipeg+0.3*+0.0*+0.0-0.2-0.3-0.2
Vegas vs San Jose-0.2-0.2-0.2*-0.0*-0.0+0.2
Arizona vs Los Angeles+0.1*-0.0*+0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1
Dallas vs Calgary+0.1*+0.0*-0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1
Minnesota vs Colorado+0.0*+0.0*-0.0*-0.1-0.1*-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Tampa Bay finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
131-156InYes1005,952*
1304510-6In99.9%100001,456*
1294511-5In99.91002,500*
1284411-6In99.910004,446*
1274412-5In99.910007,678*
1264312-6In99.91000012,444*
1254212-7In99.91000020,131*
1244213-6In99.91000031,628*
1234113-7In99.81000049,004*
1224114-6In99.81000073,232*
1214014-7In99.710000107,965*
1204015-6In99.410000154,692*
1193915-7In99.110000217,703*
1183916-6In98.610000297,552*
1173816-7In97.89900400,909*
1163817-6In96.79910526,781*
1153717-7In94.99910678,563*
1143718-6In92.498200856,032*
1133618-7In88.9972101,059,158*
1123619-6In84.0954101,281,239*
1113519-7In77.7936201,522,055*
1103520-6In69.7898301,771,566*
1093420-7In60.08511402,025,192*
1083320-8In49.079156002,265,604*
1073321-7In37.572208002,488,191*
1063221-8In26.36325110002,677,621*
1053222-7In16.55431151002,834,119*
1043122-8In9.04336201002,940,758*
1033123-7In4.23240252002,994,496*
1023023-8In1.52343304002,994,916*
1013024-7100.0%0.414433670002,933,719*
1002924-8100.00.184040101002,822,144*
992925-7100.00.0435441520002,667,422*
982825-8100.00.0229452140002,474,894*
972826-799.90.01224327610002,251,011*
962726-899.4No01540339310002,015,100*
952727-797.9No010343712620001,768,463*
942627-893.9No0627381310510001,522,709*
932628-785.5No031937121410410001,288,586*
922528-871.7No021332916169310001,069,971*
912529-753.8No01826514201682000873,071*
902429-835.6No04192102023156100697,984*
892430-720.9No021315152423124100548,968*
882330-811.0No0180292127219200423,266*
872331-75.3No00401414262717610320,803*
862231-82.4No00200272029251230238,480*
852232-71.0No00100031226302061173,057*
842132-80.4No000016193128122124,431*
832133-70.1No000312273420487,003*
822033-80.0No00016213529859,878*
812034-70.0No00031432361440,703*
802035-60.0No0001827412226,809*
791935-7OutNo00420433117,405*
781936-6OutNo00214414211,171*
771836-7OutNo011038526,973*
761837-6OutNo00633614,292*
751737-7OutNo00328682,624*
741738-6OutNo0222761,505*
731638-7OutNo011782866*
721639-6OutNo01188537*
711640-5OutNo0892248*
701540-6OutNo397146*
691541-5OutNo59563*
681441-6OutNo29843*
34-67OutNo1004,438*
Total:93.8%23.1%38212010222111100054,782,366

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Tampa Bay finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupColumbusNew JerseyTorontoNY IslandersBostonOttawaNY RangersCarolinaPittsburghWashingtonDetroitPhiladelphiaFloridaMontrealBuffalo
156610-05.9%78510551010101057421
142536-2NoYes
140516-4NoYes
139517-350.05050
138507-414.314432914
137508-38.325888171788
136487-66.3191366613131366
135477-79.1111175557149529272
134478-61.086494791514845311
133479-57.85931155155129210622
132469-65.798675511981068531
1314610-55.17869469109868451
1304510-66.288596510881158531
1294511-55.678485691010967442
1284411-66.69859669910967531
1274412-56.4785956999968532
1264312-66.2885956999967542
1254212-76.2885965999967542
1244213-66.0885965999968542
1234113-76.1785866999968542
1224114-66.3885966999968542
1214014-76.3885966999968542
1204015-66.3885966999967542
1193915-76.2785966999967542
1183916-66.3885966999967542
1173816-76.3885966999967542
1163817-66.3885966999967542
1153717-76.3785966999967542
1143718-66.3885966999967542
1133618-76.2885866999967542
1123619-66.3885866999967542
1113519-76.2885866999967542
1103520-66.3785866999967542
1093420-76.3786866999967542
1083320-86.2776877888877542
1073321-76.2776877888877542
1063221-86.2777887888876542
1053222-76.3778888878886542
1043122-86.2779799777786542
1033123-76.3661071010777795542
1023023-86.2661161110666695542
1013024-76.35513612115555104652
1002924-86.25514513125555114652
992925-76.34415414134444123652
982825-86.24417415143333133762
972826-76.33318315153333132762
962726-86.23319316162222132763
952727-76.13319316152222131763
942627-85.94419315152222131762
932628-75.44417313132211111652
922528-84.5341521111111191542
912529-73.43311288111170431
902530-62.2227165111040221
892430-71.3114133000030111
882431-60.7002022000020110
872331-70.3001011000010000
862332-60.2001000000000000
852232-70.100000000000000
842233-60.000000000000
832133-70.00000000
822134-60.00000000
812034-7No0
802136-4No00
34-79No
Total:5.9%5.55.510.45.89.89.65.75.65.65.68.74.55.24.31.9
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Wednesday100.0*Lottery seed
Tampa Bay 3 Chicago 2 (ot)-0.6
Washington 5 Ottawa 2 -0.1
Detroit 2 Edmonton 6 -0.1
New Jersey 2 Boston 3 (so)+0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday100.0*Lottery seed
Washington vs Tampa Bay+0.7+0.1+0.1-0.5-0.5-0.5
Carolina vs Toronto-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Boston vs Pittsburgh+0.0+0.1+0.1-0.0-0.0-0.1
Columbus vs Ottawa-0.1+0.0-0.0+0.0+0.1+0.0

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT12345678910111213141516171819202122232425262728293031
131-156100
1304510-610000
1294511-51000
1284411-610000
1274412-510000
1264312-6100000
1254212-7100000
1244213-6100000
1234113-7100000
1224114-6100000
1214014-7100000
1204015-699000
1193915-799100
1183916-699100
1173816-798200
1163817-697310
1153717-7954100
1143718-692620000
1133618-789820100
1123619-68411401000
1113519-77815502000
1103520-67020803000
1093420-760251104000
1083320-8493015060000
1073321-7373519180000000
1063221-82637232101000000
1053222-716372741321010000
1043122-89342981541010000
1033123-7428281215730200000
1023023-822125181411504000000
1013024-7014192311159161000000
1002924-808132771814272101000
992925-7048273181758520200000
982825-80242511519118850300000
972826-7012200101618512915110000
962726-8011505112331314363301000
952727-700100262511116866512000
942627-8006013230715164973410000
932628-70030118041022210778510000
922528-80020013016250851111105200000
912529-70100802230521291413731000
902429-800040118020941217161041000
892430-7002001201051613191913620000
882330-80100800202613202115831000
872331-700004001002613202318103100
862231-80002000002512202419104100
852232-7001000001512212520103100
842132-80000000151322261910300
832133-7000002614242718720
822033-80000271727261550
812034-7000039213024102
802035-600015142831184
791935-7000282134278
781936-601414323514
771836-7029274022
761837-614214431
751737-702164141
741738-601104049
731638-7163658
721639-642869
711640-532077
701540-61882
691541-521187
681441-6991
671240-91486
661443-4892
651343-51486
34-64100
Total:2315129655522331111111111000000000