"...per the brilliant Sports Club Stats"
(thank you Mr. Dater)

Tampa Bay Lightning Playoff Chances 50/50

Beat Los Angeles 2-1, playoff odds up 3.6 to 19.9%
46 points   21 20-4

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Monday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup
Los Angeles 1 Tampa Bay 2 +3.5
+0.2
Boston 0 NY Islanders 4 +0.6
Buffalo 4 Dallas 1 -0.2
Detroit 1 Montreal 0 -0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Tuesday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup
Anaheim vs Tampa Bay-4.8-1.0-1.0+3.3+4.0+4.0
-0.3-0.1-0.1+0.2+0.2+0.2
St. Louis vs Ottawa+0.7+0.1+0.1-0.5-0.6-0.6
Calgary vs Florida+0.6+0.1+0.1-0.4-0.5-0.5
Toronto vs Buffalo-0.2-0.5-0.4-0.2-0.2+0.4
Columbus vs Carolina+0.3+0.0+0.0-0.2-0.3-0.3
NY Rangers vs Dallas-0.2-0.2-0.1*+0.0*+0.0+0.2
Minnesota vs New Jersey+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Tampa Bay finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
120370-0In98.6%991084,248
118350-2InYes1001
116341-2In93.393715*
115342-1In73.8831742*
114332-2In75.081181176*
113322-3In64.671272534*
112323-2In55.6623711,579*
111313-3In44.0524434,281*
110314-2In33.944524010,697*
109304-3In23.433607025,750*
108305-2In14.8246610057,913*
107295-3In8.41670140121,505*
106285-4In4.010711900244,888*
105286-3In1.75692510465,762*
104276-4In0.636531200848,647*
103277-3In0.2157383001,475,690*
102267-4100.0%0.00494550002,468,393*
101268-3100.00.004050900003,956,354*
100258-4100.00.0030541510006,091,210*
99259-399.90.00225422210009,030,088*
98249-499.5No015502932000012,905,606*
972410-398.2No094436452000017,784,598*
962310-494.6No053541594100023,672,852*
952311-386.9No22542413103000030,436,609*
942211-473.8No11639315178200037,844,755*
932111-556.3No093221323155100045,528,703*
922112-437.6No0523192424113000053,032,259*
912012-521.7No0214051929208200059,807,532*
902013-410.9No0180212272816510065,358,103*
891913-54.7No0040161930251230069,250,428*
881914-41.8No0020021124302181071,146,727*
871814-50.6No0010015162929164070,852,942*
861815-40.2No0000002822322510168,473,989*
851715-50.0No000000414293218464,201,018*
841716-40.0No0000017213527858,410,128*
831616-50.0No00000031432361551,569,273*
821617-40.0No000001726412444,174,767*
811517-50.0No00000418423636,703,825*
801518-4OutNo000211394729,612,139*
791418-5OutNo00017345923,182,577*
781419-4OutNo0003276917,591,589*
771319-5OutNo0002207812,947,348*
761320-4OutNo000114859,245,012*
751220-5OutNo00010906,392,025*
741221-4OutNo007934,288,301*
731121-5OutNo004962,784,617*
721122-4OutNo003971,750,332*
711123-3OutNo02981,064,749*
701023-4OutNo0199626,174*
691024-3OutNo0199355,931*
68924-4OutNo0100194,694*
67925-3OutNo0100103,042*
66825-4OutNo010052,636*
65826-3OutNo010025,850*
64726-4OutNo010012,246*
63727-3OutNo01005,472*
62627-4OutNo01002,438*
61628-3OutNo100965*
60528-4OutNo0100382*
46-59OutNo10084,474*
Total:19.9%0.0%016913681010111212111,016,364,880

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Tampa Bay finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupWashingtonColumbusMontrealPittsburghNY RangersTorontoOttawaCarolinaBostonFloridaPhiladelphiaBuffaloDetroitNY IslandersNew Jersey
120370-06.2%322715551944152287
118350-2NoYes
116341-26.77207720713777
115342-1No25141410214272125
114332-24.0351617361633146197
113322-36.43321018671744111165
112323-26.03321020571744122264
111313-35.75421320551533112264
110314-26.05421323651433102154
109304-35.9652132276133392143
108305-26.2652142376123382243
107295-36.2653142387114372133
106285-46.3653142298104362132
105286-36.3654132011994462232
104276-46.25551219121185452222
103277-36.25461116141376542221
102267-46.3448914161567543221
101268-36.24310811181757633311
100258-46.2331269201848723311
99259-36.2221457222039724311
98249-46.22216352221210814310
2510-26.22216352221210814310
972410-36.23317332221110814300
239-56.13317332221110814300
962310-45.9441722212019704300
229-65.9441722211919704300
2411-25.9441722212019704300
952311-35.5551622191809704300
2210-55.4551521181708604300
219-75.4551521181708603300
942211-44.7561321151407503300
2110-64.5561221141407503200
2312-24.7561321151407503300
932212-33.7551021121105402200
2111-53.555921111005402200
2010-73.445921111005402200
922112-42.4346108704302100
2011-62.3346107703301100
912113-31.4223104402101100
902013-40.7112002201100000
892014-30.3001001100000000
881914-40.1000000000000000
871915-30.000000000000000
861815-40.00000000000000
851816-30.000000000000
841716-40.000000000000
831717-30.0000000000
821617-40.000000000
811618-3No000
46-80No
Total:1.2%1.11.23.20.70.64.23.90.21.91.40.10.80.70.10.0
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Monday100.0*Lottery seed
Los Angeles 1 Tampa Bay 2 -0.8
Boston 0 NY Islanders 4 -0.0
Detroit 1 Montreal 0 +0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Tuesday100.0*Lottery seed
Anaheim vs Tampa Bay+1.1+0.2+0.2-0.7-0.8-0.9
St. Louis vs Ottawa-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Calgary vs Florida-0.1+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.0
Toronto vs Buffalo+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.0
Minnesota vs New Jersey-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
120370-099010
118350-2100
116341-2937
115342-1741017
114332-2756181
113322-36572710
112323-25673710
111313-344844030
110314-234105204000
109304-323106006010
108305-21596517020
107295-38869290500
106285-4466831008000
105286-3246361011401000
104276-4125699121010000
103277-30145136230020100
102267-400331642390302000
101268-300221822461405000000
100258-4001317114834010010000
99259-30071501467411702010000
98249-403120038122126030200000
972410-301800271711331405020000
962310-400500161901383409041000
952311-3020071800366411301030000
942211-4010313002811211411782000
932111-50001800171411121231551000
922112-4000400814017223241230000
912012-50002003110032172821920000
902013-4001017001192328198200000
891913-500000400013132527177200000
881914-40000100001515252617720000
871814-5000100001615242517820000
861815-40000000001615242517820000
851715-5000000000261524261772000
841716-4000000027162626166100
831616-5000000002818282614300
821617-4000000310223124910
811517-500000141428321830
801518-400001721352871
791418-500003123237141
781419-40000162442233
771319-500031642327
761320-4000110384011
751220-50005314618
741221-40002234926
731121-5001164834
721122-400114544
711123-30074053
701023-4043461
691024-3022869
68924-4012276
67925-3011782
66825-4001287
65826-30991
64726-40694
63727-30595
62627-4397
61628-3298
60528-4199
59529-3298
46-58100
Total:001100330064002057777777666531