Tampa Bay Lightning Playoff Chances 50/50

Did not play, playoff odds unchanged at 99.995%
92 points   44 11-4

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

SundayNone
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Monday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Pres Trophy
Columbus vs Tampa Bay-0.0*InInIn*InIn
-2.0*-0.1*-0.1+1.4+1.5+1.6
Calgary vs Arizona-0.4-0.5-0.3+0.2+0.2+0.5
San Jose vs Boston-0.1*-0.1*-0.1*+0.0*-0.1+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Tampa Bay finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
125-138In100.0%100167,555*
124156-2In100.0100046,535
145-4In100.0100043,722*
123146-3In100.0100078,113*
157-1In100.01000041,290
122147-2In100.01000075,935
136-4In100.01000075,618*
121137-3In100.01000085,873
148-1In100.01000058,544
126-5In100.01000035,206*
120138-2In99.91000099,384
127-4In99.91000067,935
149-0In100.01000036,423*
119128-3In99.910000105,486
139-1In99.91000068,423
117-5In99.91000046,222*
118129-2In99.810000108,768
118-4In99.81000077,469
1310-0In99.81000041,208*
117119-3In99.610000106,279
1210-1In99.61000067,987
108-5In99.51000048,065*
1161110-2In99.11000098,459
109-4In99.11000071,232
1211-0In99.11000037,944*
1151010-3In98.09900089,099
1111-1In98.3990061,523*
99-5In98.09900034,697
1141011-2In96.5990174,938
910-4In96.19811082,884*
113911-3In92.99712060,943
1012-1In93.19712066,189*
112912-2In87.89523047,216
811-4In87.09423051,035*
111812-3In79.29136071,926*
110813-2In67.684610050,140*
109713-3In53.176816133,666*
108714-2In37.5631223221,058*
107614-3In22.7491532412,768*
106615-2In11.5351839707,256*
105515-3In4.42119471203,894*
104516-2In1.81217502101,951*
103416-3In0.5515473110932*
102417-2InNo41043422430*
101418-1InNo1740457179*
100318-2InNo126631078*
99319-1InNo20701020*
98219-2InNo71297*
97119-3InNo1001
92023-037.6%No1821843163205
Total:100.0%95.4%98110000002,562,710

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Tampa Bay finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupNY IslandersTorontoBostonWashingtonColumbusPittsburghMontrealCarolinaBuffaloPhiladelphiaFloridaNY RangersNew JerseyDetroitOttawa
138230-010.2%0516131317913843
137220-1NoYes
136210-29.1999918369
135211-17.7423122381984
134201-28.513298151516138811
133202-14.5124131311161410753
132192-26.111314815161798510
131193-16.023312111317161074200
130183-25.823412101416161174200
129184-16.3234111014161611842000
128174-26.0233111015161511842000
127164-36.2233111015161611842000
126165-26.2233111015161511842000
125155-36.2233111015161611842000
124156-26.5233111015161611842000
123146-36.3233111015161611842000
122147-26.3233111115161611842000
121137-36.4233111115161611842000
148-16.2233111115161611742000
120138-26.2233101015161611742000
127-46.2223101015161611842000
119128-36.2223101015171611832000
139-16.3223101015171611842000
118129-26.3233101115161611732000
118-46.2223101015171611832000
117119-36.2223101015171611832000
1210-16.2223101115171611832000
1161110-26.3233101016171611832000
109-46.3223101116171611832000
1151010-36.1233101016161611832000
1111-16.1223101115171611732000
1141011-26.223391116171611832000
113911-36.223391015171611832000
112912-26.324491015171611732000
111812-36.325591015171511732000
110813-26.026781014171510731000
109713-36.32910791317139621000
108714-26.221214781216128521000
107614-35.82171967101697421000
106615-26.422124558169641100
105515-36.11272944615652100
104516-26.7130342341654110
103416-36.1135361231433100
102417-27.7139382121121100
101418-17.33373822212131
100318-211.534242115131
99319-15.03055105
98219-2No294329
97119-3NoYes
92023-02.0314144100
Total:6.2%2.23.13.59.910.315.116.515.810.97.53.41.70.10.00.0
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

SundayNone
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Monday100.0*Lottery seed
Columbus vs Tampa Bay+0.1*-0.0*-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT12345678910111213141516171819202122232425262728293031
126-138100
125155-31000
124156-210000
123146-310000
157-1100000
122147-2100000
136-4100000
121137-3100000
148-1100000
126-5100000
120138-2100000
127-4100000
149-0100000
119128-3100000
139-1100000
117-5100000
118129-2100000
118-4100000
1310-0100000
117119-3100000
1210-1100000
108-5100000
1161110-299100
109-499100
1211-099100
1151010-3981000
1111-198100
99-5981000
1141011-297201
910-4962110
113911-3934120
1012-1934120
112912-28772030
111812-3791230600
913-1791130600
110813-26816501000
109713-353228015001
108714-2382612022102
107614-3232614130204
106615-21224162353170
105515-34171643872120
104516-2210125341152100
103416-3159628136031010
102417-244613151314022
101418-111610817441137
100318-2148104531910
99319-11055601010
98219-2145729
97119-3100
92023-0991014343163
Total:95210100000000000000