"...per the brilliant Sports Club Stats"
(thank you Mr. Dater)

Tampa Bay Lightning Playoff Chances 50/50

Did not play, playoff odds unchanged at 99.99%
83 points   40 17-3

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Wednesday100.0*Pres Trophy
Vegas 7 Calgary 3 -1.6
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Thursday100.0*Pres Trophy
Ottawa vs Tampa Bay-6.0-1.2-1.2+4.2+4.9+4.9
Florida vs Washington+0.1*+0.0*+0.0-0.1*-0.0-0.1
Nashville vs San Jose-0.9-0.9-0.9+0.2+0.2+1.1
Toronto vs NY Islanders-0.1-0.1-0.1*+0.0*+0.0+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Tampa Bay finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
123-127InYes10018,198*
122192-1In99.9%100021,341*
121182-2In99.8100054,647*
120183-1In99.41000120,069*
119173-2In98.810000249,959*
118174-1In97.69901469,475*
117164-2In95.499010830,390*
116154-3In91.7970301,343,995*
115155-2In86.1950502,080,677*
114145-3In78.1920802,971,585*
113146-2In67.88701304,056,140*
112136-3In55.08101902,439,100
147-1In55.78101902,732,977*
111137-2In42.97402603,240,026
126-4In41.37302703,061,682*
110127-3In28.86403503,421,843
138-1In29.46403503,789,458*
109128-2In18.65514413,984,741
117-4In17.45314613,916,701*
108118-3In9.542154203,880,661
129-1In9.84315424,274,767*
107119-2In4.63226245,462,215*
108-4In4.030263502,601,011
106109-3In1.521268904,860,663*
1110-1In1.82326782,676,074*
1051010-2In0.5143701303,340,784
99-4In0.4133701403,397,161*
104910-3In0.173682202,713,305
1011-1In0.183682202,980,582*
103911-2In0.042633002,295,509
810-4In0.032633202,318,065*
102811-3In0.012554203,527,675*
101812-2InNo01465302,583,037*
100712-3InNo003664001,784,286*
99713-2InNo002673001,178,727*
98613-3InNo00198100732,261*
97614-2100.0%No001287100434,448*
96514-3100.0No0891100239,531*
95515-2100.0No04932000126,735*
94415-399.8No293310062,465*
93416-299.1No192331029,092*
92417-197.1No1883521012,281*
91317-292.4No083275205,039*
90318-183.5No075179611,798*
89218-275.3No6816111030624*
88219-162.0No585121882200*
87119-241.4No36572821358*
86120-128.6No2929437*
85121-0InNo1002*
83022-07.3No703203925507,247
Total:100.0%22.3%421441200000000090,329,314

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Tampa Bay finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupBostonTorontoWashingtonPittsburghPhiladelphiaNew JerseyColumbusCarolinaNY IslandersFloridaNY RangersDetroitMontrealOttawaBuffalo
127220-06.4%02591623171492400
126210-110.1792118111213351
125211-07.70359132119151033
124201-15.803481523151494300
123191-26.5025915221714103400
122192-16.3003581521161493400
121182-26.3003591521161493300
120183-16.300358152116141043000
119173-26.301359152116141043000
118174-16.20135815211614104300
117164-26.202358152116141043000
116154-36.203358142016131043000
115155-26.30535814201613943000
114145-36.20835814191513943000
113146-26.301335713181412943000
112136-36.301925712161311832000
111137-26.202624611151210832000
110127-36.3135245913119732000
138-16.31342451013119732000
109128-26.324323481197622000
117-46.224523481097621000
108118-36.33531347876521000
129-16.23531347876521000
107119-26.24611235664411000
108-46.24631235654411000
106109-36.36701224443311000
1110-16.26701224443311000
1051010-26.37761113332310000
99-46.27771113322210000
104910-36.38810112211200000
103911-26.39840111111100000
102811-36.310860001000100000
101812-26.310870000000100000
100712-36.310880000000100000
99713-26.210880000000100000
98613-36.31089000000010000
97614-26.31089000000010000
96514-36.31088000000010000
95515-26.31088110000000000
94415-36.4108611100000000
93416-26.21184211000000000
92417-16.113812110000
91317-26.114761100000
90318-14.914681000
89218-25.01163100
88219-15.0755
87119-26.9536
86120-114.329
85121-050.05050
83022-00.407
Total:6.3%4.152.11.42.63.66.58.57.15.85.01.81.30.10.10.0
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

WednesdayNone
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Thursday100.0*Lottery seed
Ottawa vs Tampa Bay+0.5+0.0+0.0-0.4-0.4-0.4
Toronto vs NY Islanders+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.0-0.0-0.1

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT12345678910111213141516171819202122232425262728293031
123-127100
122192-110000
121182-210000
120183-19900
119173-299100
118174-198201
117164-2953010
116154-3926030
115155-286900500
114145-3781400800
113146-26819001300
112136-35526001900
147-15626001900
111137-243310026000
126-441310027000
110127-328350036000
138-13135003300
109128-2193610431010
117-4173510451010
108118-31033105220200
129-1103310512020
107119-252811566040
108-4426115760500
106109-3220115612009000
1110-122111561100800
1051010-20141250190013000
99-40131250200014000
104910-3071238291021100
1011-1071238291021100
103911-2040225362029200
810-4030224362030200
102811-301011338413660000
101812-20015336238141000
100712-300012464342820000
99713-200001557244360000
98613-300073812551220000
97614-200032845519800000
96514-30116146222201000
95515-200040312042020000
94415-3002017146303010000
93416-20018777030200000
92417-1012482030511100
91317-20118120712320
90318-10007517035530
89218-2068161510520
88219-158514121462
87119-236525281932
86120-1294329
85121-0100
83022-070111253119510
Total:22201133101093000000000000000000