Tampa Bay Lightning Playoff Chances 50/50

Did not play, playoff odds up 1 to 11.4%
62 points   27 25-8

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Friday100.0*Chance in playoffs
Florida 2 Calgary 4 +0.7
Carolina 3 Ottawa 0 +0.3
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday100.0*Chance in playoffs
Columbus vs NY Islanders+0.5+0.1+0.1-0.3-0.4-0.4
Toronto vs Montreal-0.1-0.6-0.4-0.2-0.3+0.3
Colorado vs Buffalo+0.3+0.1+0.1-0.2-0.2-0.2
Pittsburgh vs Philadelphia+0.2+0.0+0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1
New Jersey vs NY Rangers-0.0-0.1-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1

What If

Chances based on how well the Tampa Bay finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
106220-0In0.1%1990172,342
105210-1InNo09912,549
104211-0InNo0982015,186*
103201-1InNo0964053,312*
102191-2InNo9280180,262*
101192-1InNo8514000488,568*
100182-2100.0%No762310001,250,355*
99183-1100.0No6333400002,751,822*
98173-299.9No4842900005,743,246*
97174-199.6No3347180200010,733,688*
96164-298.1No20452805200019,027,496*
95154-393.3No10363709610030,899,366*
94155-282.6No4244001414300047,682,771*
93145-364.3No113350152410200068,226,964*
92146-242.0No062401229217100093,079,476*
91136-320.9No021306263117400055,963,842
147-122.8No0214072731164000062,761,258*
90137-29.5No0160318332711200074,379,631
126-48.2No0050216322912300070,271,671*
89127-32.5No002017233424810078,572,651
138-12.9No002018243423710086,988,280*
88128-20.7No0010031330321740091,392,882
117-40.6No0000021229331950089,975,970*
87118-30.1No000041733301320124,223,278*
129-10.2No000016213427101062,988,468
86119-20.0No0000192635226092,160,812
108-40.0No0000182436247192,963,129*
85109-30.0No00000314333415282,373,926
1110-10.0No00000315333314290,462,807*
841010-20.0No000017243825576,647,639
99-40.0No00016233827677,976,854*
83910-30.0No000021335371262,300,807
1011-10.0No000021435371268,410,740*
82911-2OutNo0016274422105,851,782*
81811-3OutNo000217453580,968,871*
80812-2OutNo00110405059,301,752*
79712-3OutNo0005326340,944,818*
78713-2OutNo0002237527,048,497*
77613-3OutNo001168416,793,691*
76614-2OutNo0010909,949,714*
75514-3OutNo006945,518,762*
74515-2OutNo03972,915,104*
73415-3OutNo02981,428,585*
72416-2OutNo0199665,985*
71417-1OutNo0100283,146*
70317-2OutNo0100114,915*
69318-1OutNo010041,621*
68218-2OutNo010014,168*
67219-1OutNo01004,201*
62-66OutNo100173,400*
Total:11.4%0.0%01350269111314141292,073,141,060

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Tampa Bay finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupWashingtonPittsburghColumbusNY RangersMontrealOttawaTorontoNY IslandersBostonFloridaBuffaloPhiladelphiaCarolinaNew JerseyDetroit
106220-06.2%218215100060001000
105210-17.211723511005000000
104211-06.3219244710150001000
103201-16.3219244511151100000
102191-26.3218234322241100000
101192-16.3217224044342200000
100182-26.2115203576544310000
193-06.3115203666544310000
99183-16.2113173099735410000
172-36.311216281010836510000
98173-26.3110132213131028610000
184-06.311114251212927610000
162-46.319122015141128610000
97174-16.2271016161612210710000
163-36.227914171613110820000
152-56.226812181713111820000
96164-26.14569191814111920000
153-46.14458201914112920000
175-06.235711191814111920000
142-66.05456201915112920000
95154-35.87334191814011920000
165-15.96345201814012920000
143-55.78334191814011920000
94155-25.210322171612010820000
144-45.011322161512010720000
166-05.49333181713011820000
133-64.81132215141109720000
93145-33.9112211212907620000
156-14.31122114131008620000
134-53.6112211110806510000
92146-22.7921188605410000
135-42.4821177504310000
157-03.1921199706410000
124-62.0711166403310000
91136-31.3511044302200000
147-11.6511054303210000
125-51.0411033202100000
90137-20.6200022101100000
126-40.5200011101100000
148-00.6200022101100000
89138-10.2100011000000000
127-30.10000000000000
88128-20.000000000000
117-40.0000000000000
87129-10.000000000000
86119-20.000000000000
851110-10.000000000000
841010-20.000000000
831011-10.0000
62-82No
Total:0.7%1.60.50.50.52.22.01.50.01.31.00.20.00.00.00.0
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Friday100.0*Lottery seed
Florida 2 Calgary 4 -0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday100.0*Lottery seed
Colorado vs Buffalo-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Pittsburgh vs Philadelphia-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1
New Jersey vs NY Rangers+0.1+0.1+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1
Toronto vs Montreal+0.0+0.1+0.0+0.0+0.0-0.0
Vancouver vs San Jose+0.0+0.0+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
106220-0018712000
105210-107425001
104211-00633500200
103201-105145004000
102191-23755008000
101192-125600013200000
100182-21461001850010000
99183-1756002211004000000
98173-2346002120009000000
97174-113201730001710020000
96164-2020010350026200502000
95154-30104320031700906100
94155-20412300271300130143000
93145-301013018180014123102000
92146-2000681600101292171000
91136-3002311005226311741000
90137-20011600211632281230000
126-40001500111531291430000
89127-3000020000621322510200000
88128-2000100029243122920000
117-40000000182231241030000
87118-30000000210243022930000
86119-2000000031224292192000
108-40000000210232922103000
85109-3000000311232921102000
1110-100000031223282192000
841010-20000014132529208200
99-4000013112329219200
83910-300001413262919710
82911-20000151629301630
81811-30000172033281000
80812-2000021128372010
79712-30001419403430
78713-20000110344770
77613-300042557140
76614-200021660220
75514-3000958330
74515-2000452440
73415-30243550
72416-20134650
71417-10026731
70317-2018802
69318-1013843
68218-208866
67219-158610
66119-228315
65120-127424
64121-07525
63021-17525
62022-005644
Total:000100020033002068999988765310