Pittsburgh Penguins Playoff Chances 50/50

Lost to Vancouver 2-5, playoff odds down 6.2 to 47.5%
25 points   11 9-3

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Wednesday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Pittsburgh 2 Vancouver 5 -5.6
-0.4
-0.6
Columbus 1 Calgary 0 (ot)-0.4
Detroit 2 Edmonton 6 +0.3
NY Islanders 4 Philadelphia 3 (ot)-0.3
New Jersey 2 Boston 3 (so)-0.3
Buffalo 4 Minnesota 5 +0.2
Washington 5 Ottawa 2 -0.1
Tampa Bay 3 Chicago 2 (ot)*-0.1
-0.1
Carolina 1 NY Rangers 6 +0.1
Florida 2 Toronto 1 (so)*-0.1
Nashville 3 Montreal 2 (so)*+0.1
-0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Boston vs Pittsburgh-6.0-1.1-1.1+4.0+4.6+4.9
-0.4-0.1-0.1+0.2+0.3+0.3
-0.4-0.1-0.1+0.3+0.3+0.4
Washington vs Tampa Bay-0.4-0.4-0.4*+0.1*-0.0+0.5
+0.1*+0.0*+0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1
New Jersey vs Vancouver-0.4-0.4-0.4*+0.1*+0.1+0.5
Carolina vs Toronto-0.2-0.4-0.4-0.1-0.1+0.3
NY Rangers vs Detroit-0.1-0.4-0.3-0.1-0.2+0.3
Columbus vs Ottawa*-0.0-0.3-0.3-0.2-0.2+0.2
Philadelphia vs NY Islanders+0.1-0.3-0.3-0.3-0.3+0.1
Buffalo vs Edmonton-0.1-0.1-0.1*+0.1*+0.0+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Pittsburgh finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
123-143InYes1004,490*
122468-5In97.7%982132*
121469-4In99.31000268*
120459-5In98.8991519*
119449-6In97.89910891*
1184410-5In98.199101,645*
1174310-6In96.498203,076*
1164311-5In94.497305,330*
1154211-6In92.196419,155*
1144212-5In88.2936114,946*
1134112-6In84.49272024,398*
1124012-7In78.38892038,450*
1114013-6In71.285123058,583*
1103913-7In62.379155088,539*
1093914-6In52.27319800129,327*
1083814-7In41.366231100185,808*
1073815-6In30.658271510258,169*
1063715-7In20.7493020100353,576*
1053716-6In12.5393325300471,918*
1043616-7In6.5303431500615,081*
1033617-6100.0%2.92134368100787,179*
1023517-7100.01.014324112100985,972*
1013518-6100.00.3828431730001,209,020*
1003418-7100.00.1423432461001,449,787*
993419-699.90.02174030910001,708,450*
983319-799.70.011235341530001,967,320*
973320-699.00.007283721610002,221,648*
963220-797.4No042035261120002,461,802*
953221-693.6No0214312918510002,669,837*
943121-786.1No0182527251130002,843,714*
933122-673.6No00418222919610002,964,395*
923022-756.4No0211142826134100003,033,985*
913023-637.6No01782229219200003,044,638*
902923-721.2No003314272817610002,999,091*
892924-610.0No002171929251341002,897,348*
882824-73.9No001031124292192002,745,757*
872825-61.3No000015162728175102,550,588*
862725-70.3No00002921302511202,327,751*
852726-60.1No00001413263019612,085,188*
842626-70.0No0000172032271121,828,888*
832627-60.0No000031328331841,572,558*
822527-70.0No00001722352771,329,753*
812528-6OutNo0004153435121,103,976*
802428-7OutNo0029294019899,530*
792429-6OutNo0015234328716,642*
782329-7OutNo0003174337561,967*
772330-6OutNo001114147430,588*
762230-7OutNo00173656324,963*
752231-6OutNo0043165240,420*
742131-7OutNo0032572174,241*
732132-6OutNo012079123,939*
722032-7OutNo01168486,043*
712033-6OutNo00128859,124*
701933-7OutNo0099139,274*
691934-6OutNo069425,886*
681834-7OutNo049616,489*
671835-6OutNo039710,433*
661735-7OutNo2986,423*
651736-6OutNo1993,821*
641636-7OutNo1992,277*
631637-6OutNo01001,336*
621537-7OutNo0100749*
611538-6OutNo100412*
601539-5OutNo0100217*
25-59OutNo1004,646*
Total:47.5%1.1%351012999877765354,782,366

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Pittsburgh finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupTampa BayColumbusNew JerseyTorontoNY IslandersBostonOttawaNY RangersCarolinaWashingtonDetroitPhiladelphiaFloridaMontrealBuffalo
143590-06.4%191051166991067642
130504-5NoYes
128495-5NoYes
127474-8NoYes
126508-120.020204020
125487-4No1111111111221111
124488-37.41111117744224747
123478-45.72998449199649242
122468-59.13127312859814213321
121469-46.31910512551091249731
120459-56.4281258451091448451
119449-65.621110510471091148422
1184410-56.6111104115611101058332
1174310-67.1210104114511101059432
1164311-57.2111104104511111067432
1154211-66.3211105105511101058432
1144212-56.1110104115511101058432
1134112-66.6111114115510101158432
1124012-76.4111114115511101158432
1114013-66.4111114115511101058432
1103913-76.3111114125511101148431
1093914-66.1111114124411101158331
1083814-76.3112124124411101147331
1073815-66.3113124124411101147331
1063715-76.2113133134411101147321
1053716-66.3114143133411101037321
1043616-76.3115143143311101137221
1033617-66.3115153143311101137221
1023517-76.3216162153311111126211
1013518-66.3217162152211111126111
1003418-76.2317172152211101026110
993419-66.2417172152211101026110
983319-76.2617173152210101016110
973320-66.281716314221010916110
963220-76.11116164132299915110
953221-65.91315154122288814100
943121-75.41513134112267614100
933122-64.6161111482255513000
923022-73.51488461133312000
913023-62.31155341122211000
902923-71.3733121111101000
892924-60.6311110000000000
882824-70.2111000000000000
872825-60.1000000000000000
862725-70.0000000000000000
852726-60.0000000000000000
842727-50.0000000000000
832728-40.00000000000
822426-90.000000
25-81No
Total:3.0%5.67.57.41.96.21.11.14.24.14.10.92.40.50.40.2
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Wednesday100.0*Lottery seed
Pittsburgh 2 Vancouver 5 +1.1
Columbus 1 Calgary 0 (ot)+0.1
NY Islanders 4 Philadelphia 3 (ot)+0.1
Washington 5 Ottawa 2 +0.0
Carolina 1 NY Rangers 6 -0.0
New Jersey 2 Boston 3 (so)+0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday100.0*Lottery seed
Boston vs Pittsburgh+1.2+0.2+0.2-0.8-0.9-0.9
New Jersey vs Vancouver+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.0-0.0-0.1
Washington vs Tampa Bay+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.0-0.0-0.1
Carolina vs Toronto+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.1
Columbus vs Ottawa+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.1
NY Rangers vs Detroit+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.1
Philadelphia vs NY Islanders-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.0

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT12345678910111213141516171819202122232425262728293031
123-143100
122468-59812
121469-49900
120459-59911
119449-698110
1184410-598110
1174310-696120
1164311-594330
1154211-692441
1144212-5885601
1134112-68477020
1124012-7781090200
1114013-671131203000
1103913-762171505000
1093914-6522119080000
1083814-741252211100000
1073815-6312726114101000
1063715-721282821810010000
1053716-613272942131030000
1043616-77232772362050000
1033617-631824102310408001000
1023517-7113191320146011101000
1013518-608131514191011520030000
1003418-70481582113218510501000
993419-602413419144189209110000
983319-70121011413715155013230000
973320-600170991091981174601000
963220-7004045114191021791112000
953221-600202210115105141516351000
943121-7001011709888191871030000
933122-60000040449318151416820000
923022-70000202281149201815721000
913023-6000010016083191420169310000
902923-7000000303113716211811410000
892924-600000201072817222013620000
882824-70000100302816222215721000
872825-600000001002715222317831000
862725-7000000002714222418931000
852726-600000000261422241893100
842626-7000000026152325188200
832627-60000002716252616610
822527-70000001391928251330
812528-60000141124302281
802428-700016162930153
792429-600002102434246
782329-7001517343211
772330-6000211303918
762230-700016244226
752231-60003184335
742131-7002124145
732132-600183754
722032-70053263
712033-60032671
701933-7022177
691934-6011782
681834-701287
671835-60991
661735-70694
651736-60595
641636-7397
631637-6298
621537-70198
611538-6199
601539-5298
591439-6199
581339-7100
571340-6397
25-56100
Total:1223232334224545444444444433321