Pittsburgh Penguins Playoff Chances 50/50

Did not play, playoff odds down 1.1 to 67.4%
71 points   32 22-7

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Friday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup
Ottawa 0 Columbus 3 -1.1
-0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup
Philadelphia vs Pittsburgh-8.5-1.4-1.3+5.8+6.6+7.0
-0.5-0.1-0.1+0.4+0.4+0.4
Dallas vs Carolina+2.0+0.3+0.4-1.2-1.6-1.6
+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1
Columbus vs San Jose-1.0-1.0-0.9+0.1+0.1+1.2
-0.1-0.0-0.1*+0.0*+0.0+0.1
Toronto vs Montreal+1.0-0.1-0.1-0.8-1.0-0.7
+0.1*+0.0*+0.0-0.0-0.1-0.0
Buffalo vs Washington-0.0-0.7-0.7-0.3-0.4+0.4
Florida vs Los Angeles-0.3-0.3-0.3+0.1+0.1+0.4
Vancouver vs NY Islanders+0.3*-0.0*-0.0-0.2-0.2-0.2
NY Rangers vs New Jersey-0.2-0.2-0.2+0.1+0.1+0.2
St. Louis vs Boston+0.1*-0.0*-0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Pittsburgh finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
113210-0In4.5%595016,248
112200-1In2.13970516
111201-0In1.129712,787*
110191-1In0.419729,252*
109181-2In0.20964030,739*
108182-1In0.10937079,989*
107172-2In0.0089110199,281*
106173-1In0.00831600424,066*
105163-2In0.00762410862,100*
104164-1In0.006632201,553,645*
103154-2InNo054415002,664,887*
102155-1InNo042489004,173,485*
101145-2100.0%No3052171006,222,366*
100135-3100.0No01951263008,572,445*
99136-2100.0No11453671006,077,537
125-4100.0No11443671005,202,940*
98126-399.8No53444134006,425,437
137-199.8No63543124007,395,866*
97127-299.0No22345181010016,183,178*
96117-396.2No1134121214008,316,840
128-196.5No1144221203009,430,457*
95118-290.7No0733193190009,676,261
107-489.2No06321932101008,965,529*
94108-377.5No032114402020008,662,996*
119-178.5No03221439192009,715,947*
93109-261.2No01139393260009,938,850*
98-459.8No0112838337007,421,776*
9299-340.0No00643044152007,271,615
1010-141.5No00643143142008,153,595*
91910-224.4No00322046255006,759,688
89-422.0No00211845275006,369,139*
90810-310.9No0101039361220010,510,407*
89811-24.2No00042841225008,059,973*
88711-31.3No000116383211105,804,471*
87712-20.3No00082939204004,002,755*
86612-30.1No00031838319002,582,740*
85613-20.0No000193039181001,595,953*
84513-30.0No004204130400917,813*
83514-2OutNo011135421010502,991*
82515-1OutNo00525481920255,521*
81415-2OutNo00215473150122,613*
80416-1OutNo007404111054,524*
79316-2OutNo03294720122,884*
78317-1OutNo118473138,547*
77217-2OutNo010424073,056*
76218-1OutNo535519877*
75118-2OutNo2265814254*
74119-1OutNo23542357*
73019-2OutNo15463813*
71021-0OutNo02395916,146
Total:67.4%0.0%061521917169521000201,241,052

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Pittsburgh finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupTampa BayBostonNY IslandersTorontoWashingtonMontrealColumbusCarolinaBuffaloPhiladelphiaFloridaNY RangersNew JerseyDetroitOttawa
113210-06.5%7311939161121100
112200-15.4641193418142110
111201-06.56411123517122110
110191-16.464111234171221100
109181-26.3641112341612211000
108182-16.265111432171221100
107172-26.2055101631171221100
106173-16.2056101829171221100
105163-26.2058920261712211000
104164-16.204108232317122110000
103154-26.203127261918121100000
102155-16.203146291618121100000
144-36.203155291419121100000
101145-26.302174321119121100000
134-46.302184311020121100000
156-06.20217432111912110000
100135-36.20121333720121100000
146-16.20120334820121100000
99136-26.21123234521120100000
125-46.3212423442112010000
147-06.31122235520120100000
98126-36.2402513322012010000
137-16.23025134320120100000
115-56.2502613222011010000
97127-26.21002603111911010000
116-46.21102603011810010000
138-06.21002603111810010000
96117-36.0210250260158010000
128-16.1180250280169010000
106-55.9240240240158010000
95118-25.7310210200126010000
107-45.5330190190116000000
129-05.6310210200116010000
94108-34.83901401307400000
119-15.03801601508400000
97-54.64001201106300000
93109-23.939090804200000
98-43.638070704200000
1110-03.838090804200000
9299-32.530040302100000
1010-12.631040402100000
91910-21.41902010100000
90810-30.7100000000000
89811-20.340000000000
88812-10.110000000000
87712-20.00000000
86713-10.00000000
85613-20.000
84614-1No0
71-83No
Total:4.2%17.00.413.70.816.82.210.05.70.20.40.10.10.00.00.0
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Friday100.0*Lottery seed
Ottawa 0 Columbus 3 +0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday100.0*Lottery seed
Philadelphia vs Pittsburgh+1.0+0.2+0.2-0.7-0.8-0.8
Columbus vs San Jose+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.0-0.0-0.2
Dallas vs Carolina-0.2-0.0-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Buffalo vs Washington-0.1+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Vancouver vs NY Islanders-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Toronto vs Montreal-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.0

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT12345678910111213141516171819202122232425262728293031
113210-050950
112200-1219700
111201-01197010
110191-100970200
109181-2009414000
108182-1009036010
107172-20083681200
106173-100741010250000
105163-2006115104100100
104164-1004620961702000
103154-2031237726040100
102155-1018244736170200
101145-292125414100601000
100135-30416133891301303000
99136-211001301412123070100
125-411001291412124070100
98126-30500171681340130400
137-105001816913301204000
97127-2020081551390180100100
96117-3010031021381200210400
128-1010031121381200200300
95118-200016003111913109000
107-4000160029218132010100
94108-30000200182122400212000
119-1000030021214138018200
93109-20010010272381326000
98-40001001026238133700
9299-30000042212914415200
1010-10000042313014314200
91910-200000111117245265000
90810-300000072383713200
911-1000100823836122000
89811-2000002225402461000
88711-300000011233341540000
87712-200000042033271230000
86612-3000018223124113100
85613-20000292129231231000
84513-300029202824124100
83514-200028202825134100
82515-100028202925123000
81415-20002821302511300
80416-10029233123920
79316-2000311253221710
78317-10031430311730
77217-201621352791
76218-10293036193
75118-231941307
74119-121230479
73019-28313823
71021-00084250
Total:0024018530171811711694211000000000