Pittsburgh Penguins Playoff Chances 50/50

Beat Columbus 5-2, playoff odds up 3.6 to 95.1%
74 points   35 22-4

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Sunday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Columbus 2 Pittsburgh 5 +3.3
+0.2
+0.1
Winnipeg 7 Florida 2 +0.5
Detroit 2 Toronto 3 +0.2
Carolina 2 New Jersey 3 (ot)*-0.1
NY Rangers 4 Philadelphia 7 -0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Monday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
NY Islanders vs Minnesota-0.3-0.3-0.3+0.1+0.1+0.4
Buffalo vs Washington+0.1*-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Pittsburgh finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
116210-0In92.3%98273,193
115200-1In84.09462,146
114201-0In76.4919012,242*
113191-1In65.78515041,687*
112181-2In52.978220138,763*
111182-1In39.569310360,830*
110172-2In26.858411898,919*
109173-1In16.04652101,914,173*
108163-2In8.43563203,876,804*
107164-1In3.62472407,000,643*
106154-2In1.3157870012,018,184*
105155-1In0.3880110018,791,867*
104145-2In0.1478170028,043,947*
103135-3In0.0273241038,625,011*
102136-2In0.01643330050,824,636*
101126-3In0.00524160028,925,720
137-1In0.00534160033,336,775*
100127-2InNo04148111038,446,312
116-4InNo03948121034,495,251*
99117-3100.0%No028502020037,505,204
128-1100.0No028501920042,501,496*
98118-2100.0No018492850043,609,936
107-4100.0No017482950040,389,802*
97108-3100.0No01041381100038,996,842
119-1100.0No01041381000043,843,339*
96109-2100.0No0532441810049,633,108*
98-499.9No429442120028,605,052*
9599-399.7No02204430500069,490,937*
94910-298.8No11138381110030,472,842
89-498.6No11037391210028,694,082*
93810-395.5No05274222400047,365,155*
92811-287.9No021638331110036,326,270*
91711-374.2No0082739215000026,158,178*
90712-255.2No0031636311220018,033,714*
89612-334.9No0017273622610011,637,251*
88613-218.3No003153332142007,186,270*
87513-37.6No001723362571004,132,079*
86514-22.5No002133134163002,267,594*
85515-10.6No00152137278101,151,137*
84415-20.1No0021131361730556,254*
83416-10.0No000420392871244,636*
82316-2OutNo011132381520102,365*
81317-1OutNo0042341265038,369*
80217-2OutNo0212373711013,700*
79218-1OutNo0630442104,192*
78118-2OutNo220423411,192*
77119-1OutNo11042452256*
76019-2OutNo133748254*
75020-1OutNo982911
74021-0OutNo0115681672,762
Total:95.1%0.2%125282113631100000906,861,182

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Pittsburgh finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupTampa BayBostonTorontoWashingtonPhiladelphiaNew JerseyNY IslandersColumbusCarolinaFloridaNY RangersDetroitOttawaMontrealBuffalo
116210-06.0%001312161416161345100
115200-15.913111615161612551
114201-06.100131416151616114410
113191-16.200141417141515124410
112181-26.3001414171415151244100
111182-16.3001515181314141234000
110172-26.3001516201314131133000
109173-16.2001618211213121133000
108163-26.3001719221112121033000
107164-16.3001821241011111022000
106154-26.300182325101010922000
105155-16.300192426999822000
104145-26.3001102526999812000
103135-36.3001122727888711000
146-16.3001122627888711000
102136-26.2001132827777611000
125-46.3001142827777611000
101126-36.3001162928767511000
137-16.3001152928777511000
100127-26.2001173028666411000
116-46.3001183028666411000
99117-36.3000203029655311000
128-16.3000203029655311000
98118-26.3000223129555210000
107-46.3000223029555210000
129-06.3000223129555210000
97108-36.2110243029544110000
119-16.2100243029544110000
97-56.2110253029544100000
96109-26.3110272928444100000
98-46.3110272928444100000
1110-06.3110272928444100000
9599-36.2331302726433000000
1010-16.2330302726433000000
94910-26.2661312423323000000
89-46.2761312322322000000
93810-36.011111301818222000000
911-16.011111301918222000000
92811-25.515162261413111000000
710-45.41616225131311100000
91711-34.618192188810000000
90712-23.416172114400000000
89612-32.211131522000000
88613-21.1671211000000
87614-10.5330100000000
86514-20.21100000000
85515-10.00000000
84415-20.0000000
83416-1No0000
74-82No
Total:5.9%3.13.20.720.525.124.44.94.64.62.70.70.60.10.00.0
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Sunday100.0*Lottery seed
Columbus 2 Pittsburgh 5 -0.9
NY Rangers 4 Philadelphia 7 +0.1
Carolina 2 New Jersey 3 (ot)+0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Monday100.0*Lottery seed
Buffalo vs Washington-0.2-0.0-0.0+0.2+0.2+0.2

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT12345678910111213141516171819202122232425262728293031
116210-09252
115200-184106
114201-07614900
113191-166191500
112181-2532522100
111182-14029301000
110172-22731384100
109173-116304581000
108163-282648152000
107164-14204725301000
106154-2114413741200000
105155-108314952500000
104145-2042158539000000
103135-302126134161100000
102136-201658252332000000
101126-300250142973120000
137-100250142973120000
100127-2014003301543401000
116-4013903291543501000
99117-300280225243610020000
128-10028022524369020000
98118-200180117312816231000
107-4001701163129162420000
97108-300100093219217650000
119-100100093219217550000
96109-20050042808211561210000
98-4040325072116614110000
9599-300201180516235253200000
94910-2010011039263354710000
89-4100100282633748100000
93810-3000501322141418211000
92811-20002001140372314531000
91711-300000702713848941000
90712-20000030160362916134100
89612-300001070271618241230000
88613-200003015021329241120000
87513-300010701622312282000
86514-20020021227311961000
85515-1001004163030154100
84415-2000016203227112000
83416-10000292433228100
82316-2000313293117510
81317-10151932281220
80217-2029253422710
79218-1003163032162
78118-21722372580
77119-12133439120
76019-2217173331
75020-1955279
74021-00162947151
Total:01422111214149821115111110000000000