Pittsburgh Penguins Playoff Chances 50/50

Beat Washington 8-7 (ot), playoff odds up 1.8 to 94.4%
59 points   27 11-5

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Monday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Pittsburgh 8 Washington 7 (ot)+2.0
*+0.1
+1.8
Los Angeles 1 Tampa Bay 2 -0.1
Buffalo 4 Dallas 1 -0.1
Detroit 1 Montreal 0 +0.2
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Tuesday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Columbus vs Carolina+0.3+0.0+0.0-0.2-0.3-0.2
-0.5-0.5-0.4+0.1+0.1+0.6
Minnesota vs New Jersey+0.2+0.0+0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1
-0.5-0.5-0.4+0.1+0.1+0.6
NY Rangers vs Dallas-0.1-0.1-0.1+0.0+0.0+0.1
-0.1-0.1-0.1+0.0+0.0+0.1
St. Louis vs Ottawa+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1
Calgary vs Florida+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1
Anaheim vs Tampa Bay+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1
Toronto vs Buffalo-0.0-0.1-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.1
Colorado vs Chicago+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Pittsburgh finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
127-137In100.0%10090,479*
126324-3In99.910009,659*
125314-4In99.81000022,441*
124315-3In99.71000049,034*
123305-4In99.510000102,745*
122306-3In99.199010203,540*
121296-4In98.599010383,815*
120297-3In97.598020695,965*
119287-4In95.9970301,209,795*
118288-3In93.6960402,012,904*
117278-4In90.2930603,228,734*
116279-3In85.690010004,994,517*
115269-4In79.585113007,435,901*
114259-5In71.9801181010,691,319*
1132510-4In62.9732242014,860,154*
1122410-5In52.7642303019,973,855*
1112411-4In41.85533750025,962,958*
1102311-5In31.24544390032,687,454*
1092312-4In21.535447130039,871,032*
1082212-5In13.526549191047,156,637*
1072213-4In7.518549272054,084,013*
1062113-5100.0%3.7114463440060,188,543*
1052114-4100.01.564414270065,005,589*
1042014-5100.00.5333548110068,164,677*
1032015-4100.00.12227521710069,424,026*
1021915-5100.00.01120532510068,698,790*
1011916-4100.00.00113503330066,035,458*
1001816-599.90.00084541600061,686,664*
991817-499.60.000537481000055,967,876*
981717-598.9No002285216100049,383,893*
971718-497.1No001205224300042,340,719*
961618-593.1No0001347336000035,270,775*
951619-485.2No0083740132000028,566,376*
941519-572.1No0042642225100022,464,625*
931520-454.1No002153731123000017,168,187*
921420-534.5No0172734218200012,745,100*
911421-418.1No00315302916610009,197,926*
901321-57.6No00172029251341006,440,031*
891322-42.5No00210232922102004,373,414*
881222-50.6No0014142629197102,884,713*
871223-40.1No0001618292715401,844,904*
861123-50.0No000029223124911,141,223*
851124-40.0No0014142832184686,392*
841024-50.0No000172134278399,830*
831025-4OutNo00313313616225,322*
82925-5OutNo0017254126122,045*
81926-4OutNo00317423864,329*
80927-3OutNo00110385032,833*
79827-4OutNo016336115,943*
78828-3OutNo00325727,575*
77728-4OutNo0118803,414*
76729-3OutNo012871,483*
75629-4OutNo892590*
74630-3OutNo0694266*
73530-4OutNo19996*
59-72OutNo10084,302*
Total:94.4%8.8%1322329207311000001,016,364,880

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Pittsburgh finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupWashingtonColumbusMontrealNY RangersTorontoOttawaCarolinaBostonFloridaPhiladelphiaTampa BayBuffaloDetroitNY IslandersNew Jersey
137390-06.4%1311355226512433116
133372-0NoYes
132351-3No6124761812
131352-28.0204632446222108
130342-37.61121264235417331811
129343-24.32321453225515312126
128333-35.92311444245513423106
127334-26.3231145424541433396
126324-36.1231144424541443396
125314-46.52311445235414323106
124315-36.3231144424541432396
123305-46.2231144424541433396
122306-36.2241144424541432396
121296-46.2341144424541432396
120297-36.3341144424441432396
119287-46.2341144424441432296
118288-36.2451144423441432296
117278-46.2561144423441432286
116279-36.2671154422441332286
115269-46.3791153321431332285
114259-56.210111153320331222275
1132510-46.212131163318331122265
1122410-56.215161162317321022264
1112411-46.21819117221522921154
1102311-56.32122118221322811143
1092312-46.32525119111011611132
1082212-56.2282811911911511122
1072213-46.2303021911711410021
1062113-56.3323131911611300011
1052114-46.3333241911510200011
1042014-56.2323171812410200011
1032015-46.23130101622311200010
1021915-56.22928151533311100000
1011916-46.22726191244211110000
1001816-56.22523241055211110000
991817-46.2232128956221111000
981717-56.2212031766121111000
971718-46.1212031666121011000
961618-55.8202130556121011000
951619-45.3202225545111010000
941519-54.5182119433011000000
931520-43.4151813322000000000
921420-52.210137211000000000
911421-41.1573100000000000
901321-50.5231000000000000
891322-40.2110000000000000
881323-30.0000000000000000
871223-40.0000000000000
861224-30.00000000000
851124-40.000000
841125-3No0
59-83No
Total:5.9%24.524.312.413.32.83.05.01.21.02.80.70.50.51.41.0
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Monday100.0*Lottery seed
Pittsburgh 8 Washington 7 (ot)-0.6
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Tuesday100.0*Lottery seed
NY Rangers vs Dallas+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.0-0.0-0.2
Columbus vs Carolina+0.1+0.1+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.1

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
128-137100
127334-21000
126324-310000
125314-4100000
124315-3100000
123305-499000
122306-3990010
121296-4981010
120297-3971020
119287-4961030
118288-3942040
117278-49030600
116279-3864010000
115269-48061013000
114259-572810180010
1132510-4631020240020
1122410-5531220300030
1112411-442133037005000
1102311-5311440420090000
1092312-42114404610130000
1082212-513124048100190010
1072213-48104047200270020
1062113-548404330034004000
1052114-425303651042007000
1042014-5132127610480011000
1032015-40111187205110170100
1021915-501101172051100250100
1011916-400005620473103303000
1001816-5000024203951041060000
991817-40000122028620480100000
981717-50000110178305111601000
971718-4000000097404932403000
961618-50000000354041533060000
951619-400000013312983911320000
941519-500000012116104022251000
931520-40000001178325301230000
921420-50000001251983222920000
911421-4000000287252918720000
901321-50000012514262717720000
891322-40000002515252617720000
881222-50000011615242517820000
871223-400000161423251893100
861123-500000151423251993000
851124-40000151323261992000
841024-5000015142427197100
831025-40002616272816500
82925-5000282031271110
81926-400031126342140
80927-3001518353291
79827-4002103040162
78828-30152145244
77728-4021344347
76729-317374511
75629-403294720
74630-32244331
73530-494843
72531-3184340
71431-43367
70432-36040
59039-0199
Total:942019310262101917031100000000000