Eastern Conference Playoff Chances 50/50

Carolina +4.0, Philadelphia -5.9
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
Chance will make playoffsWin CupPres TrophyDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
ThursdayPGWL-OTGD%Change%Change%Change1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516RPIFriday
Toronto12161-01270.3%-0.64.4%-0.17.7%-0.01311191565555443325Toronto Maple Leafs
Tampa BayWColumbus 2-01361-1669.7+3.44.3+0.27.2+1.21311191566555443321Tampa Bay Lightning
New JerseyWOttawa 5-4 (ot)12161-01069.2+3.74.3+0.27.4+1.21311181576655443323San JoseNew Jersey Devils
ColumbusLTampa Bay 0-210152-0660.5-5.63.8-0.44.7-1.798151477666554437Columbus Blue Jackets
CarolinaWCalgary 2-17331-1255.8+4.03.5+0.23.9+0.7771414777666655413Carolina Hurricanes
Pittsburgh9142-1-455.3-0.53.5-0.03.6-0.077141477766665549at FloridaPittsburgh Penguins
OttawaLNew Jersey 4-5 (ot)9131-3654.8-1.53.4-0.13.4-0.3771414666666655422Ottawa Senators
Detroit8143-0250.7-0.63.2-0.02.7-0.056131466677666658WashingtonDetroit Red Wings
PhiladelphiaLNashville 0-18143-0950.6-5.93.1-0.42.8-1.1661213777776666514Philadelphia Flyers
BostonWVancouver 6-36233-0-146.9+3.72.9+0.32.3+0.5551213666777777623Boston Bruins
NY IslandersWNY Rangers 4-3 (so)7133-1-244.8+3.42.8+0.22.1+0.3451112777777777721New York Islanders
Washington7133-1-144.7-0.42.8-0.02.1-0.0451112777777777611at DetroitWashington Capitals
Florida4323-0-342.4-0.72.7-0.11.8-0.045101266677778884PittsburghFlorida Panthers
Buffalo4114-2-1031.5-0.62.0-0.00.9+0.0237956677899111227VancouverBuffalo Sabres
Montreal3115-1-1626.8-0.61.7-0.00.6-0.01268456678910121528at AnaheimMontreal Canadiens
NY RangersLNY Islanders 3-4 (so)415-2-1026.0-1.21.6-0.10.6-0.11257556778910121524New York Rangers

6 teams will qualify for the Stanley Cup Playoffs. The format is a set bracket that is largely division-based with wild cards. The top three teams in each division will make up the first 12 teams in the playoffs. The remaining four spots will be filled by the next two highest-placed finishers in each conference, based on regular-season record and regardless of division. It is possible for one division in each conference to send five teams to the postseason while the other sends just three.

The percent after the team score is the chance of winning in regulation based on current second and
either home/away actual score or home/away goal differential.
Adam updates the scores (email errors to adamv at mad dot scientist dot com).

Big Games

Who should we root for?   Explain

Thursday
Columbus 0 Tampa Bay 2
7:00 PM100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Tampa Bay+4.0
+0.3
+1.3
New Jersey+0.2
Columbus-4.8
-0.3
-1.6
Carolina+0.2
Pittsburgh+0.2
Ottawa*-0.1
Philadelphia+0.2
Washington+0.3
NY Rangers+0.2
Philadelphia 0 Nashville 1
7:00 PM100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Toronto+0.2
Tampa Bay+0.3
New Jersey+0.4
Columbus+0.4
Carolina+0.5
Pittsburgh+0.4
Ottawa+0.3
Detroit+0.3
Philadelphia-5.0
-0.3
-1.0
Boston+0.3
NY Islanders+0.4
Washington+0.5
Florida+0.2
Buffalo+0.2
Montreal+0.2
NY Rangers+0.4
Calgary 1 Carolina 2
9:00 PM100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Toronto-0.2
Tampa Bay-0.2
New Jersey-0.3
Columbus-0.3
Carolina+4.0
+0.3
+0.8
Pittsburgh-0.3
Ottawa-0.2
Detroit-0.2
Philadelphia-0.5
NY Islanders-0.4
Washington-0.4
Florida-0.2
Buffalo-0.2
Montreal-0.2
NY Rangers-0.3
Boston 6 Vancouver 3
7:00 PM100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Toronto-0.3
Tampa Bay-0.3
New Jersey-0.2
Columbus-0.2
Carolina-0.2
Pittsburgh-0.2
Ottawa-0.4
Detroit-0.3
Philadelphia-0.2
Boston+4.0
+0.3
+0.5
NY Islanders-0.2
Washington-0.3
Florida-0.4
Buffalo-0.3
Montreal-0.3
Ottawa 4 New Jersey 5 (ot)
7:30 PM100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Tampa Bay*-0.2
New Jersey+3.8
+0.3
+1.2
Columbus*-0.2
Carolina*-0.3
Pittsburgh-0.5
Ottawa-0.7
-0.3
Philadelphia*-0.2
Boston*-0.2
NY Islanders-0.4
Washington*-0.3
Florida*-0.3
Buffalo*-0.2
NY Rangers*-0.2
NY Rangers 3 NY Islanders 4 (so)
7:00 PM100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
New Jersey-0.4
Columbus*-0.2
Carolina*-0.3
Philadelphia*-0.3
NY Islanders+3.5
+0.2
+0.4
Washington*-0.3
Montreal*-0.2
NY Rangers-1.0
Friday
Detroit vs WashingtonIf winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
7:30 PM100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Detroit55.154.854.249.649.945.3
3.43.43.4*3.2*3.12.8
3.43.43.32.52.61.9
Philadelphia50.9*50.4*50.7*50.350.1*50.5
Washington39.443.643.948.448.749.1
2.5*2.7*2.73.13.13.1
1.41.91.92.42.52.6
Florida vs PittsburghHomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
7:30 PM100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Toronto*70.269.969.970.0*70.370.6
Pittsburgh50.054.254.459.059.559.8
3.1*3.4*3.53.83.63.8
2.63.33.44.34.44.5
Ottawa*54.8*54.554.2*54.5*54.755.1
Philadelphia50.9*50.6*50.450.250.2*50.5
Florida46.746.446.141.341.637.2
2.92.93.0*2.7*2.72.3
2.32.32.21.71.61.2
NY Rangers26.3*25.9*26.0*25.825.525.9
Buffalo vs VancouverHomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
7:00 PM100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Toronto69.969.9*70.3*70.4*70.370.7
Tampa Bay69.369.3*69.570.1*69.770.1
Ottawa54.5*54.6*54.7*54.9*54.755.3
Detroit50.4*50.650.3*50.6*50.951.1
Florida42.141.9*42.1*42.4*42.442.8
Buffalo35.135.434.630.730.826.9
2.22.22.2*2.0*2.01.7
1.11.11.00.80.80.6
New Jersey vs San JoseHomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
7:00 PM100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
New Jersey72.872.872.568.568.564.6
4.54.64.5*4.3*4.34.1
8.98.98.57.07.15.7
Columbus60.2*60.3*60.3*60.3*60.361.0
4.7*4.8*4.6*4.7*4.74.8
Carolina55.4*55.755.3*55.8*55.956.2
Philadelphia50.4*50.350.0*50.7*50.651.1
NY Islanders44.4*44.5*44.6*44.9*44.945.2
Washington44.4*44.5*44.6*44.6*44.845.2
Anaheim vs MontrealHomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
10:00 PM100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Tampa Bay70.1*69.6*69.8*69.569.369.4
Detroit51.1*50.7*50.8*50.4*50.550.3
Florida42.8*42.3*42.4*42.242.042.1
2.7*2.7*2.6*2.7*2.62.6
Montreal22.626.326.129.830.330.2
1.4*1.61.61.91.91.9
0.40.50.50.70.80.8

* A starred outcome could have no effect or just a really small effect. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

First Round Opponents

Who is going to play who in the first round of the playoffs.   Explain

TorontoTampa BayNew JerseyColumbusCarolinaPittsburghOttawaDetroitPhiladelphiaBostonNY IslandersWashingtonFloridaBuffaloMontrealNY Rangers
Toronto10.23.22.92.72.78.68.02.67.42.32.36.74.94.21.5
Tampa Bay10.23.22.92.72.78.68.02.57.32.32.36.74.84.11.5
New Jersey3.23.29.08.48.22.62.47.62.36.66.72.11.71.43.8
Columbus2.92.99.07.37.32.22.06.61.85.85.71.61.31.13.2
Carolina2.72.78.47.36.61.91.86.01.65.25.21.51.10.92.8
Pittsburgh2.72.78.27.36.61.91.85.91.65.15.21.51.10.92.8
Ottawa8.68.62.62.21.91.96.21.85.61.51.55.03.53.00.9
Detroit8.08.02.42.01.81.86.21.65.11.41.44.53.22.70.8
Philadelphia2.62.57.66.66.05.91.81.61.54.64.61.31.00.82.4
Boston7.47.32.31.81.61.65.65.11.51.31.34.12.92.40.7
NY Islanders2.32.36.65.85.25.11.51.44.61.33.91.10.80.72.1
Washington2.32.36.75.75.25.21.51.44.61.33.91.10.80.72.1
Florida6.76.72.11.61.51.55.04.51.34.11.11.12.52.10.6
Buffalo4.94.81.71.31.11.13.53.21.02.90.80.82.51.50.4
Montreal4.24.11.41.10.90.93.02.70.82.40.70.72.11.50.3
NY Rangers1.51.53.83.22.82.80.90.82.40.72.12.10.60.40.3