Eastern Conference Playoff Chances 50/50

Capitals +7.9, Red Wings -2.5
Points
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
Chance will make playoffsWin CupPres TrophyDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
MondayPGWL-OTGD%Change%Change%Change1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516RPITuesday
Panthers9414519-459100.0%6.3%23.9%+0.0332039700002Florida Panthers
Bruins954014-1541100.06.218.4+0.02717488000011SenatorsBoston Bruins
Rangers9414519-444100.06.225.4-0.0344718000001JetsNew York Rangers
Hurricanes9014220-648100.0-0.06.22.7+0.051481000000005at IslandersCarolina Hurricanes
Maple Leafs8533819-93399.8-0.06.2-0.00.512137771000000010at FlyersToronto Maple Leafs
Lightning7823625-61087.5-1.15.5-0.10.0000864167321000012at Golden KnightsTampa Bay Lightning
CapitalsWFlames 5-27523325-9-2760.5+7.93.8+0.5No00040515161174100020Washington Capitals
Flyers7613426-8-658.7-2.33.7-0.1No00037516171274100018Maple LeafsPhiladelphia Flyers
Red Wings7413428-6339.9-2.52.5-0.2No00013271917127310019Blue JacketsDetroit Red Wings
Islanders7322923-15-2035.6-2.32.2-0.1No00184141918139410023HurricanesNew York Islanders
Penguins6923028-9-28.3-0.90.5-0.1No0031491420222061025at DevilsPittsburgh Penguins
SabresWKraken 6-2713331-536.7+1.70.4+0.1No001591421241951022at CanucksBuffalo Sabres
Devils6813232-4-162.8-0.40.2-0.0No010259162330123021PenguinsNew Jersey Devils
Senators6032834-4-220.0-0.00.0No00000141237351027at BruinsOttawa Senators
Canadiens6122531-11-500.0-0.00.0No0000013933401428at OilersMontreal Canadiens
Blue Jackets5712334-11-470.00.0No00000015197530at Red WingsColumbus Blue Jackets

All times are in Eastern. email errors to amer at mallah dot com, all credit to Anna Kear for figuring this out in the first place.
data pulled March 19, 2024 06:00:32

The top 3 teams in each division automatically qualify for the Stanley Cup Playoffs, but the next 2 highest-placed finishers in each conference also make the postseason. In Round 1, each conference winner plays the second wild card team from their conference, while the other division winner in that conference faces its first wild card. At the same time, the second-placed team in each division takes part in a best-of-seven series with their third-placed counterpart upon meeting each other, on both sides of the playoff bracket. The Second Round pits the winner of that contest against the first seed from their division, or the wild card team that beat them. The Conference Finals see the 2 divisional champions from each conference squaring off, and the Stanley Cup Final consists of a matchup between the Eastern and Western Conference champions.

Big Games

Who should we root for?   Explain

Monday
Flames 2 Capitals 5
8:30 PM100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Lightning-0.8
Capitals+8.2
+0.5
Flyers-2.0
-0.1
Red Wings-1.9
-0.1
Islanders-2.0
-0.1
Penguins-0.8
Sabres-0.4
Devils-0.3
Kraken 2 Sabres 6
10:00 PM100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Lightning-0.3
Capitals-0.3
Flyers-0.4
Red Wings-0.6
Islanders-0.3
Penguins-0.2
Sabres+2.1
+0.1
Devils-0.1
Tuesday
Flyers vs Maple LeafsIf winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
7:00 PM100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Bruins18.418.418.418.418.318.3
Rangers25.525.425.425.325.325.3
Maple Leafs99.799.999.999.9100.0100.0
0.10.30.30.70.70.7
Lightning86.686.686.787.787.788.6
5.45.45.45.55.55.5
Capitals58.558.559.061.061.063.0
3.73.73.73.83.83.9
Flyers67.467.366.157.157.147.7
4.24.24.13.63.63.0
Red Wings38.038.038.040.240.242.4
2.42.42.42.52.52.7
Islanders33.533.534.136.136.138.2
2.12.12.12.32.32.4
Penguins7.57.57.68.48.49.3
0.50.50.50.50.50.6
Sabres6.26.26.26.86.87.4
Devils2.52.52.52.92.93.3
Red Wings vs Blue JacketsHomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
7:00 PM100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Lightning86.586.586.887.887.888.7
5.45.45.45.55.55.5
Capitals58.658.658.760.960.962.9
3.73.73.73.83.83.9
Flyers56.856.856.959.259.261.3
3.53.53.63.73.73.8
Red Wings48.348.247.438.138.129.3
3.03.03.02.42.41.8
Islanders33.933.933.935.935.937.8
2.12.12.12.22.22.4
Penguins7.77.77.88.58.59.1
0.50.50.50.50.50.6
Sabres5.95.96.16.96.97.7
0.40.40.40.40.40.5
Devils2.62.62.62.92.93.2
Islanders vs HurricanesHomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
7:30 PM100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Panthers24.324.124.123.723.623.6
Bruins18.718.518.518.218.218.2
Rangers25.725.525.525.125.125.1
Hurricanes1.12.12.13.84.04.0
Lightning86.786.786.787.787.788.6
5.45.45.45.55.55.5
Capitals58.658.659.161.161.162.8
3.73.73.73.83.83.9
Flyers56.756.757.259.459.461.3
3.53.53.63.73.73.8
Red Wings38.238.238.240.340.342.2
2.42.42.42.52.52.6
Islanders43.643.542.433.533.525.6
2.72.72.72.12.11.6
Penguins7.77.77.78.48.49.1
Sabres6.26.26.26.86.87.4
Devils2.62.62.62.92.93.2
Golden Knights vs LightningHomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
10:00 PM100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Lightning81.787.287.291.491.991.9
5.15.45.45.75.75.7
No0.00.00.00.00.0
Capitals61.560.660.659.959.759.7
3.83.83.83.73.73.7
Flyers59.958.858.858.057.957.9
3.7*3.7*3.73.63.63.6
Red Wings41.340.040.039.038.938.9
2.62.52.52.42.42.4
Islanders36.835.635.634.834.734.7
2.32.2*2.22.22.22.2
Penguins8.88.48.48.08.08.0
Sabres7.26.76.76.36.36.3
Devils3.0*2.8*2.82.72.72.7
Devils vs PenguinsHomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
7:00 PM100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Lightning87.887.587.587.487.287.3
Capitals61.160.560.560.259.960.1
Flyers59.458.858.858.358.158.3
Red Wings40.339.839.939.639.539.7
Islanders36.135.635.635.235.135.2
Penguins4.26.96.910.911.611.8
0.30.40.40.70.70.7
Sabres6.86.76.76.66.66.6
Devils4.44.24.22.22.21.1
0.30.30.30.10.10.1
Canucks vs SabresHomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
10:00 PM100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Panthers23.023.023.424.324.325.0
Bruins17.617.617.618.618.619.3
Rangers24.524.524.825.825.826.5
Hurricanes2.52.52.62.72.72.9
Lightning88.087.787.787.287.187.1
Capitals61.160.760.760.060.060.0
Flyers59.358.958.958.358.358.3
Red Wings40.840.340.339.539.139.1
2.62.52.52.52.42.4
Islanders36.235.835.735.135.135.1
Penguins8.68.48.48.18.18.1
Sabres3.25.65.69.19.69.6
0.20.40.40.60.60.6
Devils2.92.92.92.82.82.8
Bruins vs SenatorsHomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
7:00 PM100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Panthers22.622.622.624.324.325.6
Bruins100.0InIn100.0100.0100.0
24.124.124.116.816.811.1
Rangers23.823.823.825.825.827.4
Hurricanes2.52.52.52.72.72.9
Maple Leafs0.40.40.40.50.50.5
Oilers vs CanadiensHomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
9:00 PM100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Panthers23.823.823.924.024.024.0
Bruins18.318.318.318.418.418.5
Rangers25.325.325.325.425.425.5
Rangers vs JetsHomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
7:00 PM100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Panthers23.322.523.223.823.625.1
Bruins17.917.217.218.018.019.5
Rangers100.0InIn100.0100.0100.0
33.932.931.122.321.915.6
Hurricanes2.62.42.52.62.62.9
Maple Leafs0.40.40.40.40.40.5
Blues vs AvalancheHomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
8:00 PM100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Panthers24.524.224.223.623.423.4
Bruins19.018.618.617.917.917.9
Rangers26.025.625.625.024.924.9
Hurricanes2.82.72.72.62.62.6

* A starred outcome could have no effect or just a really small effect. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

First Round Opponents

Who is going to play who in the first round of the playoffs.   Explain

PanthersBruinsRangersHurricanesMaple LeafsLightningCapitalsFlyersRed WingsIslandersPenguinsSabresDevilsSenatorsCanadiensBlue Jackets
Panthers2.80.00.042.321.36.16.611.25.41.71.90.60.00.00.0
Bruins2.80.00.049.920.24.74.99.74.41.21.70.50.00.00.0
Rangers0.00.00.03.735.213.815.715.510.22.42.60.90.00.00.0
Hurricanes0.00.00.01.19.335.631.23.115.43.00.50.80.00.00.0
Maple Leafs42.349.93.71.11.50.20.20.50.20.10.10.00.00.0No
Lightning21.320.235.29.31.50.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0No
Capitals6.14.713.835.60.20.00.00.00.00.00.00.0NoNo
Flyers6.64.915.731.20.20.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
Red Wings11.29.715.53.10.50.00.00.00.00.00.0
Islanders5.44.410.215.40.20.00.00.00.00.00.00.0No
Penguins1.71.22.43.00.10.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
Sabres1.91.72.60.50.10.00.00.00.00.00.0
Devils0.60.50.90.80.00.00.00.00.00.0
Senators0.00.00.00.00.00.0No0.0No
Canadiens0.00.00.00.00.0NoNo
Blue Jackets0.00.00.00.0No