Winnipeg Jets Playoff Chances 50/50

Did not play, playoff odds down 0.1 to 51.3%
6 points   3 3-0

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Wednesday100.0*Chance in playoffs
Los Angeles 5 Montreal 1 -0.2
St. Louis 5 Chicago 2 *+0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Thursday100.0*Chance in playoffs
Philadelphia vs Nashville+0.4*+0.2*+0.1*-0.2-0.4-0.4
Calgary vs Carolina-0.3*-0.3-0.4*-0.0*+0.1+0.4
Arizona vs Dallas+0.3*-0.0*+0.1-0.4*-0.3-0.2
Boston vs Vancouver+0.3*-0.0*-0.1*+0.0*-0.3-0.2

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Winnipeg finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
123-158InYes100304*
1225515-6In98.7%99176*
119-121In99.5100575*
1185216-8In98.11000466*
1175217-7In97.89910758*
1165117-8In94.498211,114*
1155017-9In93.998211,650*
1145018-8In90.496212,471*
1135019-7In85.994423,393*
1124919-8In81.5926304,769*
1114819-9In73.9897406,686*
1104820-8In64.68410608,885*
1094720-9In55.7791390012,016*
1084721-8In45.47216110015,722*
1074621-9In33.56320161020,316*
1064622-8In23.25425202025,780*
1054522-9In14.945282430031,980*
1044523-8In8.035312940039,645*
1034423-9In3.725323571047,556*
1024424-8100.0%1.41732391010056,324*
1014324-9100.00.41130421520066,449*
1004325-8100.00.1626432040075,949*
994225-999.90.03224225710085,813*
984226-899.8No11739301020095,616*
974126-999.4No0123434154100105,223*
964127-898.3No082836197100113,486*
954027-995.7No05223521124100121,457*
944028-890.0No031632211882000126,676*
933928-980.3No0110281922145100131,156*
923929-866.0No1722142320103100133,351*
913829-949.4No0416920241772000133,657*
903830-832.5No02114152423145100131,096*
893730-919.2No0172920262110300128,252*
883731-810.0No0041514252617610122,754*
873631-94.6No0020282028241230115,383*
863531-102.0No010141325291971107,453*
853532-90.8No01002720302612298,696*
843432-100.3No00001413273219588,960*
833433-90.1No000028213427879,164*
823333-100.0No000141532341469,723*
813334-90.0No00021028392159,882*
803335-80.0No001622423051,117*
793235-90.0No000316413942,733*
783236-8OutNo00211394835,339*
773136-90.0No0017345828,629*
763137-8OutNo005296622,781*
753037-9OutNo003247418,076*
743038-8OutNo01198014,168*
732938-9OutNo01148510,828*
722838-10OutNo0011898,150*
712839-9OutNo07936,136*
702840-8OutNo06944,486*
692740-9OutNo05953,184*
682640-10OutNo03972,178*
672641-9OutNo2981,565*
662642-8OutNo1991,134*
652542-9OutNo199747*
642442-10OutNo199476*
632443-9OutNo0100316*
60-62OutNo100453*
592245-9OutNo29847*
6-58OutNo100291*
Total:51.3%2.3%5713146777777772,723,516

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Winnipeg finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupLos AngelesVegasSt. LouisChicagoCalgaryNashvilleColoradoMinnesotaDallasVancouverSan JoseAnaheimEdmontonArizona
158760-06.9%4104885659107878
1305911-6No5050
1295811-7No333333
1285711-8No5050
1275611-940.040202020
1265410-12No25252525
1255714-59.199918181899
1245614-6No5101055510515105555
1235514-77.710518851038153853
1225515-63.983745185111237577
1215314-92.9831310210911876564
1205315-86.9541284107105118843
1195316-79.38510489127767765
1185216-85.4679105889876656
1175217-77.458986979966666
1165117-86.475887889877765
1155017-96.576988888876755
1145018-86.3569961098967664
1135019-75.8661086998966665
1124919-85.966997898876664
1114819-96.356997899966665
1104820-86.566996999966665
1094720-96.55610106998966664
1084721-85.95510969109966654
1074621-96.2551010610109955654
1064622-86.25511106101091065553
1054522-96.355111151010101055543
1044523-86.244121151111101055443
1034423-96.244131241112111044443
1024424-86.144141341212111144432
1014324-96.334141341213111133332
1004325-86.333151431313121233322
994225-96.233151431313121233322
984226-86.233151431313121232221
974126-96.243151431313121222221
964127-86.344151431313121122221
954027-96.054151331212111122211
944028-85.755131231111101022211
933928-95.165121131099822211
923929-84.3541093877722211
913829-93.143762665521110
903830-82.132542443311100
893730-91.121331222210000
883731-80.711210111100000
873631-90.300110111100000
863632-80.100000000000000
853532-90.000000000000000
843533-80.00000000000000
833433-90.000000000
823535-6No000000
813536-50.00000
803234-10No0
793437-5No0
783640-0No
773237-7No0
6-76No
Total:3.2%2.72.47.36.72.06.26.25.75.61.61.51.41.20.9
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Wednesday100.0*Lottery seed
St. Louis 5 Chicago 2 -0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Thursday100.0*Lottery seed
Philadelphia vs Nashville-0.1-0.0*-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Arizona vs Dallas-0.1*+0.0-0.0+0.1+0.0+0.0
Chicago vs Edmonton+0.0+0.1+0.0-0.0+0.0-0.1
Colorado vs St. Louis-0.0+0.0+0.1-0.0+0.1*-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT12345678910111213141516171819202122232425262728293031
123-158100
1225515-6991
1215415-7991
1205315-8100
1195316-7991
1185216-89820
1175217-798110
1165117-894321
1155017-994421
1145018-890621
1135019-7868402
1124919-881106030
1114819-9741570400
1104820-86519100600
1094720-9562312090000
1084721-84526160110000
1074621-93430191151010
1064622-82331232181020
1054522-9153024421313000
1044523-88272462252040000
1034423-942223102284070010
1024424-811619131913701010100
1014324-90101416141710113212000
1004325-80691781914215314000
994225-90351741816415730701000
984226-81214114168131160912000
974126-9011109121281610112340100
964127-80070581541613213670100
954027-90050241511414611111124100
944028-80030121309121171513572000
933928-9001011005815316121012620000
923929-801006024161137161412620000
913829-900041114093181116137310000
903830-8000200100411451318169410000
893730-9000100702092714191812620000
883731-8000041050271420201583100
873631-90000200200271420221794100
863531-1001010002613202318104100
853532-901000002513202319114100
843432-1000000000261321242010310
833433-90000002614232519920
823333-1000000271625261761
813334-9000139192825123
803335-800014132531216
793235-90002719322911
783236-8001313293618
773136-900017234028
763137-8004174138
753037-9002113849
743038-80173359
732938-9042769
722838-10022176
712839-911782
702840-8011287
692740-901090
682640-100694
672641-9496
662642-8496
652542-90298
642442-10298
632443-9199
622444-80100
612344-9199
602244-10100
592245-9298
6-58100
Total:2334333434343434333333333333333