Philadelphia Flyers Playoff Chances 50/50

Did not play, playoff odds down 1.5 to 39.3%
33 points   13 11-7

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Friday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
NY Rangers 4 Los Angeles 2 -0.6
Buffalo 4 Carolina 5 (ot)-0.5
New Jersey 5 Dallas 2 -0.4
Vancouver 4 San Jose 3 (ot)-0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Philadelphia vs Dallas+4.7+4.7+4.0-1.0-1.0-5.8
+0.3+0.3+0.3-0.1-0.1-0.4
+0.2+0.1+0.1-0.1-0.1-0.2
NY Islanders vs Los Angeles-0.6-0.5-0.5+0.1+0.1+0.7
Arizona vs Pittsburgh+0.7+0.1+0.1-0.5-0.6-0.5
Washington vs Anaheim-0.5-0.5-0.4+0.1*+0.1+0.6
Boston vs NY Rangers+0.5-0.1-0.1-0.4-0.5-0.3
Carolina vs Columbus*-0.0-0.4-0.4-0.2-0.3+0.2
Ottawa vs Montreal+0.1-0.1-0.1-0.2-0.2-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Philadelphia finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
121-135InYes1005,999*
120426-3In97.6%98282*
119416-4In97.8991136*
118406-5In99.01000307*
117407-4In96.99820647*
116397-5In93.697301,292*
115398-4In91.695502,646*
114388-5In88.293704,951*
113389-4In82.190918,984*
112379-5In75.58612215,687*
1113710-4In67.7821620026,930*
1103610-5In57.776204044,685*
1093510-6In46.8692560072,277*
1083511-5In35.561291000112,751*
1073411-6In24.752341410171,782*
1063412-5In15.3423719100253,531*
1053312-6In8.3333925300364,836*
1043313-5In3.8244031500511,186*
1033213-6100.0%1.41637378100698,748*
1023214-5100.00.410334213200930,369*
1013114-6100.00.1527442040001,206,950*
1003115-5100.00.0320422771001,529,968*
993015-699.80.011438331220001,889,476*
983016-599.4No0830361951002,279,614*
972916-698.4No0522362692002,686,145*
962917-595.9No021432311640003,090,914*
952817-690.6No018253224810003,476,473*
942818-581.0No0041729311540003,820,800*
932718-666.4No00211213324810004,101,828*
922719-548.3No01613293116410004,306,082*
912619-630.0No00362132251020004,419,811*
902620-515.5No001212273119610004,437,942*
892520-66.6No000151830271341004,357,364*
882521-52.3No00021024312292004,177,272*
872421-60.6No00014152829175103,928,018*
862422-50.1No00001821312611203,608,130*
852322-60.0No0000313283219503,243,246*
842323-50.0No000017213427912,854,060*
832223-60.0No00031330341722,452,492*
822224-5OutNo001724382552,060,904*
812124-6OutNo000316373491,696,488*
802125-5OutNo001103241141,369,402*
792025-6OutNo00162646221,077,496*
782026-5OutNo0003194830829,444*
771926-6OutNo001134639625,042*
761927-5OutNo00184249458,974*
751827-6OutNo0053757332,012*
741828-5OutNo0033166234,202*
731728-6OutNo0022573161,243*
721729-5OutNo012079107,929*
711629-6OutNo00158470,752*
701630-5OutNo0128845,423*
691530-6OutNo089128,366*
681531-5OutNo069417,508*
671431-6OutNo049610,468*
661432-5OutNo3976,049*
651332-6OutNo2983,377*
641333-5OutNo1991,836*
631233-6OutNo199953*
621234-5OutNo0100508*
611134-6OutNo0100252*
33-60OutNo1006,233*
Total:39.3%0.4%137991010998876374,239,272

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Philadelphia finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupTampa BayColumbusNew JerseyTorontoWashingtonBostonNY RangersNY IslandersPittsburghCarolinaMontrealDetroitOttawaFloridaBuffalo
135510-06.0%112113124121311843331
123434-4No333333
122435-311.1113311111122
121425-49.726133103161963
120426-32.411212213181161652
119416-45.115132651018975432
118406-56.51119314417131082331
117407-46.31121331231213111223220
116397-57.211312312412149933320
115398-46.10121321231313111033320
114388-56.4012123133131310933220
113389-46.01121221231313101033220
112379-56.1113132133131310933220
1113710-46.20131221331313101033220
1103610-56.2013132143131310932220
1093510-66.3013132143131310933220
1083511-56.2014142142131310932220
1073411-66.3014142142131310922220
1063412-56.301515215213139822110
1053312-66.301616215213139822110
1043313-56.201616216212139822110
1033213-66.211717116212138721110
1023214-56.311817117112138711110
1013114-66.321818117112138711110
1003115-56.231818117112127711110
993015-66.251818217111127611000
983016-56.281817216211117611000
972916-66.1111717216210106510000
2815-86.1121717215210106510000
962917-56.11516163152995510000
2816-75.91616163142995510000
3018-36.01616163142995510000
952817-65.71915143132884410000
2716-85.62014143122774410000
942818-55.12212123112663310000
2717-75.02312123102663300000
2919-35.02212123102663300000
932718-64.32399382442200000
2617-84.02299372442200000
922719-53.01966252231100000
912619-61.91344131111100000
902620-51.0722111110000000
892520-60.4311010000000000
882521-50.1100000000000000
872421-60.0000000000000000
862422-50.0000000000000000
852423-40.00000000000000
842323-50.000000000000
832324-40.000000
33-82No
Total:2.5%7.56.26.11.25.60.93.53.62.11.90.30.20.20.10.0
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Friday100.0*Lottery seed
NY Rangers 4 Los Angeles 2 +0.1
Buffalo 4 Carolina 5 (ot)+0.1
New Jersey 5 Dallas 2 +0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday100.0*Lottery seed
Philadelphia vs Dallas-0.9-0.9-0.8+0.2+0.2+1.1
NY Islanders vs Los Angeles+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.0-0.0-0.1
Arizona vs Pittsburgh-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Washington vs Anaheim+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.1
Boston vs NY Rangers-0.1+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.0
Carolina vs Columbus-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1-0.0

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT12345678910111213141516171819202122232425262728293031
121-135100
120426-3982
119416-49811
118406-59910
117407-497120
116397-594330
115398-492350
114388-588570
113389-482891
112379-576111202
1113710-468141602000
1103610-558182004000
1093510-6472224160000
1083511-53625281900000
1073411-625273121310100
1063412-515273341720010000
1053312-68253272041030000
1043313-542028112272050000
1033213-611522152112408001000
1023214-509161817186012102000
1013114-60591811239116300400000
1003115-50251662310318710701000
993015-60121222010517142011120000
983016-50181148812203016350100
972916-6004085107235118890200
962917-500203292216317151424000
952817-6001011611555112118682000
942818-50000040836523181313510000
932718-6000002031621912211811410000
922719-500010104012524161811510000
912619-6000000206219101920136200000
902620-5000000102012413212215720000
892520-60000001051513222317831000
882521-50000002015132224181031000
872421-60000010015132124191041000
862422-500000001512212520103100
852322-60000000151322262093000
842323-5000000016142427187200
832223-6000002717272715510
822224-50000292130251020
812124-60000141327321950
802125-500001720332891
792025-600003133036172
782026-5000172439254
771926-600031639347
761927-5000110344212
751827-60016284718
741828-5003224926
731728-6002164934
721729-501114642
711629-60074251
701630-5043759
691530-6033067
681531-5012573
671431-6012079
661432-501684
651332-601287
641333-50991
631233-60595
621234-5595
611134-6298
601135-5496
591035-6199
33-58100
Total:0112131224113646445555555544321