Philadelphia Flyers Playoff Chances 50/50

Did not play, playoff odds up 0.3 to 56.5%
8 points   4 2-0

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Wednesday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Los Angeles 5 Montreal 1 +0.2
-0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Thursday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Philadelphia vs Nashville+4.0+4.2+3.5-0.8-0.7-5.0
+0.3+0.3+0.2*-0.1*-0.1-0.3
+0.9+0.8+0.6-0.2-0.3-1.0
Calgary vs Carolina+0.5*+0.2*+0.2-0.5*-0.3-0.5
Columbus vs Tampa Bay*-0.1-0.4*-0.3*-0.2*+0.1+0.2
Boston vs Vancouver-0.2*-0.3*-0.1*-0.1*+0.1+0.3
Ottawa vs New Jersey+0.2*-0.0*-0.2*-0.2*-0.2-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Philadelphia finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
121-160InYes1001,035*
1205216-8In99.3%1000441*
1195217-7In98.89900753*
1185117-8In97.999101,060*
1175017-9In96.898111,643*
1165018-8In95.197112,387*
1154918-9In93.697223,413*
1144919-8In90.3953304,782*
1134819-9In86.4934306,550*
1124820-8In81.3915408,886*
1114720-9In75.08776012,096*
1104721-8In65.782990015,729*
1094621-9In56.37612120020,410*
1084622-8In45.26815151025,741*
1074522-9In34.46019201032,056*
1064523-8In24.051222430039,118*
1054423-9In14.741252950047,177*
1044424-8In8.331273571056,522*
1034324-9100.0%3.92228391010065,801*
1024325-8100.01.41427421520076,097*
1014225-9100.00.48254320400086,222*
1004226-899.90.15214225710096,072*
994126-999.80.0216393010200105,244*
984127-899.50.01123434154000113,403*
974027-998.6No082836207100120,571*
964028-896.3No052135231230000127,115*
953928-991.7No031532241871000130,958*
943929-882.6No0110272223134100133,308*
933829-969.0No0162117251992000134,117*
923729-1051.9No03151123241562000131,633*
913730-934.4No02106172522124100127,819*
903630-1019.7No01621122262093000122,312*
893631-99.8No00315152425177200116,270*
883531-104.1No00202919272313410107,421*
873532-91.6No0010141223282192098,939*
863432-100.5No000026172727155189,098*
853433-90.1No000013102230239179,051*
843333-100.0No0001516293015369,198*
833334-90.0No00000210243324659,791*
823234-100.0No0000161833311151,035*
813235-9OutNo00031229371842,865*
803135-10OutNo001824412635,385*
793136-9OutNo01418413528,670*
783036-10OutNo00213404522,736*
773037-9OutNo018355518,318*
763038-8OutNo005316314,080*
752938-9OutNo03257110,680*
742838-10OutNo0220788,198*
732839-9OutNo0115846,146*
722840-8OutNo112884,464*
712740-9OutNo08913,215*
702741-8OutNo07932,363*
692641-9OutNo3971,586*
682642-8OutNo3971,174*
672542-9OutNo397742*
662543-8OutNo199485*
652443-9OutNo199314*
642444-8OutNo100217*
632344-9OutNo199151*
622345-8OutNo19992*
8-61OutNo100361*
Total:56.5%3.9%77141477766655542,723,516

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Philadelphia finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupTorontoTampa BayColumbusNew JerseyOttawaPittsburghCarolinaDetroitWashingtonBostonFloridaNY IslandersBuffaloMontrealNY Rangers
160760-04.6%7369688611646973
1325911-6NoYes
131569-11NoYes
1306014-250.05050
1285713-6No171717171717
1275613-79.555195551451410555
1265513-8No44812151248128844
1255514-710.0886210128228266812
1245515-64.5361292933142365915
1235314-91.8991543101266365436
1225315-85.86485691378368358
1215316-76.26587881067657278
1205216-85.055897109810357366
1195217-77.055107610758568557
1185117-84.9459869968668546
1175017-97.5559968968558547
1165018-86.75581068969668546
1154918-96.9559968868568556
1144919-85.35510959869558447
1134819-96.15598510959559547
1124820-85.7559959958559547
1114720-96.04510969959558446
1104721-86.7451010591059558446
1094621-96.2451010510959558446
1084622-86.54411115101059559446
1074522-96.344111141110510449436
1064523-86.24412124111049449336
1054423-96.234131341111410449336
1044424-86.233131341211410339336
1034324-96.333141431211310339326
1024325-86.333141431312310339226
1014225-96.333151531312310239226
1004226-86.333151531312310229226
994126-96.233161531312210229216
984127-86.243151531312210229116
974027-96.144151531312310229115
964028-86.15515143121139228115
953928-95.76514134111038227114
943929-85.165121239937226114
933829-94.355101038726225113
923830-83.2548726524114112
913730-92.1335524313112001
903731-81.2213312211101001
893631-90.6111101101001000
883632-80.3001100000000000
873532-90.1000000000000000
863533-80.0000000000000000
853534-70.0000000000000000
843434-8No00000000
833334-9No0000000
823335-80.00000
8-81No
Total:3.5%2.82.58.18.02.16.76.21.85.31.51.54.81.11.03.0
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

WednesdayNone
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Thursday100.0*Lottery seed
Philadelphia vs Nashville-0.9-0.9-0.7+0.2+0.1+1.1
Calgary vs Carolina-0.1-0.0*-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Columbus vs Tampa Bay+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.0-0.0-0.1
Ottawa vs New Jersey-0.1-0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
NY Rangers vs NY Islanders-0.0+0.1*-0.0*+0.0+0.0*+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT12345678910111213141516171819202122232425262728293031
121-160100
1205216-89900
1195217-799100
1185117-898110
1175017-997211
1165018-895211
1154918-994322
1144919-8904330
1134819-9867430
1124820-88110540
1114720-9751270600
1104721-866169080000
1094621-95619120110000
1084622-84523150150010
1074522-934261811910100
1064523-8242721122113000
1054423-915262332531040000
1044424-8822225275370010
1034324-9418217268501000100
1024325-8113171022127014102000
1014225-90813121615110172140000
1004226-80481210171512042070100
994126-902412415163207401002000
984127-80121011115616117014140000
974027-901707129101411117370100
964028-80040371151414217611030000
953928-900301310111155141016272000
943929-800101807128913185124100
933829-9001006037104131610181031000
923729-1000003013101109141917931000
913730-9000201806414142117931000
903630-1000100502110717221811410000
893631-90000301052817222013620000
883531-1000000100203816222115731000
873532-90000100101271521221693100
863432-100000000126132123181041000
853433-9000000002613212419114100
843333-10000000261321241910310
833334-90000002614232519820
823234-1000000271625261661
813235-900139192825123
803135-1000014132531216
793136-9002719322911
783036-10001312293619
773037-90017234029
763038-8014174039
752938-9002113750
742838-100173359
732839-9042769
722840-8022177
712740-9011584
702741-811386
692641-90892
682642-80693
672542-9595
662543-8298
652443-9298
642444-8199
632344-9199
622345-8298
8-61100
Total:4443434343434343444333333332222