Dallas Stars Playoff Chances 50/50

Beat NY Rangers 7-6, playoff odds up 4.6 to 30.7%
46 points   19 19-8

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Tuesday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup
NY Rangers 6 Dallas 7 +4.7
+0.3
Calgary 5 Florida 2 -0.8
St. Louis 4 Ottawa 6 +0.7
Colorado 4 Chicago 6 -0.2
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Vancouver vs Nashville+0.4-0.5-0.5-0.6-0.7*-0.0
Anaheim vs Tampa Bay-0.3*-0.2*-0.0*-0.2*+0.3+0.3
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup
Los Angeles vs San Jose-0.4-0.5-0.5*-0.2*-0.0+0.6
Edmonton vs Florida-0.4*-0.3-0.4*-0.0*+0.1+0.6
Winnipeg vs Arizona-0.4-0.5-0.4*-0.2*+0.2+0.5

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Dallas finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
112-118In93.8%100161*
111312-3InNo50502
110313-2In55.678229*
109303-3In18.291911*
108304-2In18.275716244*
107294-3In10.463431167*
106295-2In1.6515385185*
105285-3In1.7405497410*
104286-2In0.728951120718*
103276-3In0.31810561511,263*
102266-4InNo1395622102,374*
101267-3InNo685330304,117*
100257-4InNo364740406,541*
99258-3InNo1441458010,379*
98248-4100.0%No033351121015,599*
97249-3100.0No012454182022,592*
96239-499.9No0117532540031,808*
952310-399.4No011493171042,423*
942210-498.1No0743341420055,208*
932211-394.7No0436342151069,281*
922111-487.0No022829291120084,788*
912112-374.9No012021331951098,448*
902012-458.5No00141331281220112,019*
891912-540.8No097253420500123,737*
881913-425.6No0531734291010131,736*
871813-513.8No03110283618300136,549*
861814-46.5No0205213828600136,656*
851714-52.7No01021335371200132,086*
841715-41.1No001728422010122,890*
831615-50.4No000320433030111,892*
821616-40.1No0011240406099,859*
811516-50.0No0007344811085,056*
801517-40.0No0003265317170,573*
791417-5OutNo02185424257,119*
781418-4OutNo01125132444,554*
771318-50.0No00074640733,446*
761319-4OutNo0438461224,428*
751219-5OutNo0231501717,531*
741220-4OutNo0123522312,042*
731221-3OutNo11753307,965*
721121-4OutNo01248405,219*
711122-3OutNo0845473,266*
701022-4OutNo0538571,923*
691023-3OutNo335621,077*
68923-4OutNo022969658*
67924-3OutNo2080340*
66824-4OutNo1387158*
65825-3OutNo168479*
64725-4OutNo79361*
46-63OutNo100193*
Total:30.7%0.0%0021081013161815611,919,540

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Dallas finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupMinnesotaChicagoAnaheimSan JoseEdmontonSt. LouisNashvilleLos AngelesCalgaryVancouverWinnipegArizonaColorado
118360-05.7%561191914111186
112333-0NoYes
111312-3No5050
110313-2No221111222211
109303-3No9551818
108293-46.8516271191120792
107294-36.042777316796641
106295-25.41129544131396321
105285-38.0133133419127432
104286-25.61436223171135320
103276-36.1153922318122331
102266-46.220411221710232100
101267-35.9204321218912110
100257-46.1214722215811110
99258-36.422463221581111
98248-46.1224543313811010
97249-36.2214365312711010
96239-46.321417651162101
952310-36.221379769522010
229-56.3213798695221000
942210-46.123331197742211
2311-26.122341087842211
219-66.2233311977432110
932211-35.9243011976322110
2110-56.0242911976322100
209-75.6242911976322100
922111-45.4262610964221100
2010-65.32624109642210000
2212-25.4262611964221100
912112-34.826229853211000
2011-54.925219753111000
1910-74.525219753211000
902012-43.72316664211100
1911-63.521156542111000
2113-23.82317764211100
892013-32.61712442110000
1912-52.517114421100000
1811-72.516114421100000
881913-41.61172211000000
871914-30.9641110000000
861814-40.4320000000000
851815-30.2110000000000
841715-40.10000000000
831716-30.00000000
821616-40.0000000
811617-30.0000
801416-6No0
78-79No
771419-3No0
46-76No
Total:1.9%9.49.83.02.61.81.81.00.50.40.10.10.00.0
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Tuesday100.0*Lottery seed
NY Rangers 6 Dallas 7 -0.8
St. Louis 4 Ottawa 6 -0.1
Minnesota 3 New Jersey 4 +0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Vancouver vs Nashville-0.1+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1+0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday100.0*Lottery seed
Winnipeg vs Arizona+0.0+0.1*+0.1+0.0-0.0-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
118360-0946
112333-05050
111312-35050
110313-2562222
109303-318739
108304-2185771422
107294-3105242741
106295-224951211851
105285-3238321830061
104286-21276413370920
103276-30185511441105010
102266-413456463012100100
101267-36353455112180200
100257-43251387111280310
99258-31140299383520520
98248-4003020865424075100
97249-30010116724471810200
96239-40015481391137183100
952310-30022802913752652100
942210-401150191212331772000
932211-300031081713371441000
922111-4000254180285246420000
912112-3000122170212307863100
902012-4000111301313151012941000
891912-50000870252714161262000
881913-40005301713917201572000
871813-500031100141120221782000
861814-400020500151322241882000
851714-5010200015142325188200
841715-40010002615252617610
831615-50000002718282714400
821616-40000029223125910
811516-50000141328331830
801517-400001720362970
791417-50003123239131
781418-40162544222
771318-500031644325
761319-4011040409
751219-5005344615
741220-402265021
731221-301185229
721121-40134838
711122-3094546
701022-4053857
691023-333562
68923-4022969
67924-302179
66824-41387
65825-31684
64725-4793
46-63100
Total:000001010425171912345677787741