Dallas Stars Playoff Chances 50/50

Did not play, playoff odds down 0.2 to 51.3%
6 points   3 3-0

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Wednesday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Los Angeles 5 Montreal 1 -0.2
St. Louis 5 Chicago 2 +0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Thursday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Arizona vs Dallas-5.3-1.0-1.0+3.6+4.0+4.4
-0.3*-0.1*-0.0+0.2+0.3+0.3
-0.7-0.2-0.2+0.5+0.5+0.6
Philadelphia vs Nashville+0.5*-0.1*-0.2*-0.3*-0.2-0.4
Calgary vs Carolina-0.3*-0.2*-0.2*-0.0*+0.1+0.3
Boston vs Vancouver+0.2*+0.2*-0.2*-0.1*-0.3-0.2
Colorado vs St. Louis*+0.1-0.5*-0.3*-0.2-0.4*+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Dallas finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
125-158InYes100246*
1245513-8In94.4%94618*
120-123In99.5100412*
1195316-7In98.3991299*
1185216-8In98.29910453*
1175217-7In97.49911717*
1165117-8In95.098211,059*
1155118-7In94.097211,641*
1145018-8In90.596312,379*
1134918-9In86.694423,347*
1124919-8In80.1925304,785*
1114819-9In74.488846,643*
1104820-8In66.48410609,071*
1094720-9In55.878139012,134*
1084721-8In45.37216121015,853*
1074621-9In34.06320161020,233*
1064622-8In23.35424202025,869*
1054522-9In14.544282530032,230*
1044523-8In7.934313050039,331*
1034423-9In3.825323571047,486*
1024424-8100.0%1.41732391110056,394*
1014324-9100.00.41130421520066,019*
1004325-8100.00.16264320400075,773*
994225-999.90.03214226710086,239*
984226-899.80.0116393111200096,008*
974126-999.4No012343415410105,005*
964127-898.3No082836197200113,396*
954027-995.6No05223522124100120,774*
944028-889.9No031633211882000126,928*
933928-980.0No1102819221451000131,521*
923929-866.3No1622142320103100133,280*
913829-949.4No0416920241772000133,556*
903830-832.5No02115152523145100131,345*
893730-919.0No0172920262110300128,335*
883731-89.9No0041514252617610122,348*
873631-94.6No0020282028241230115,493*
863531-101.9No010141325291971107,972*
853532-90.8No01002719302712298,485*
843432-100.3No00001413273219489,301*
833433-90.1No000028223327879,116*
823434-80.0No000141532341469,759*
813334-90.0No00021028392159,977*
803234-100.0No001622422951,209*
793235-90.0No000316423942,329*
783135-10OutNo00211394835,264*
773136-9OutNo017355728,946*
763036-10OutNo005296622,922*
753037-9OutNo003247317,915*
743038-8OutNo02207913,977*
732938-9OutNo01158410,904*
722939-8OutNo011887,992*
712839-9OutNo08916,044*
702840-8OutNo06944,318*
692740-9OutNo04963,161*
682640-10OutNo3972,264*
672641-9OutNo2981,612*
662541-10OutNo2981,086*
652542-9OutNo199736*
642543-8OutNo0100509*
632443-9OutNo0100312*
622444-8OutNo0100212*
6-61OutNo100574*
Total:51.3%2.3%5613146777777762,723,516

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Dallas finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupLos AngelesVegasSt. LouisChicagoCalgaryNashvilleColoradoMinnesotaWinnipegVancouverSan JoseAnaheimEdmontonArizona
158760-04.6%588691086687587
1285812-6No25252525
1275611-9No25252525
1265814-4No25252525
1255613-718.86613196131919
1245513-85.61111661761117611
1235514-72.327216115959167552
1225515-616.1533116108105811658
1215415-77.83515451010514347103
1205315-83.710661089911736563
1195316-75.7577976810878693
1185216-86.4678117996866856
1175217-75.3659115998868664
1165117-85.9579106998867655
1155118-76.6569879108967654
1145018-85.756896999966666
1134918-96.2668969107966666
1124919-85.9558969109966765
1114819-96.466996998966665
1104820-86.2569106999966655
1094720-96.556996999966655
1084721-86.255101061099966654
1074621-96.2561010610109965554
1064622-86.155111051010101055554
1054522-96.245111151111101055544
1044523-86.444121251111101044443
1034423-96.244131241212111044443
1024424-86.144141341212111144433
1014324-96.433141441212111233332
1004325-86.233151431313121233322
994225-96.233151431313121233322
984226-86.233151531313121222221
974126-96.344161431313121222221
964127-86.144151431313121122221
954027-95.954141331212111122211
944028-85.555141231111101022211
933928-95.16512113999822211
923929-84.2541083887722211
913829-93.143762655521110
903830-82.132541433311100
893730-91.221321222210000
883731-80.611110111100000
873631-90.300110110000000
863632-80.100000000000000
853532-90.000000000000000
843533-80.000000000000000
833433-90.00000000000
823535-60.00000000
813435-70.000000
803436-6No00
793336-7No0
6-78No
Total:3.2%2.62.47.36.82.06.26.25.75.61.61.51.41.10.9
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Wednesday100.0*Lottery seed
St. Louis 5 Chicago 2 -0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Thursday100.0*Lottery seed
Arizona vs Dallas+1.1+0.2+0.2-0.8-0.9-0.9
Philadelphia vs Nashville-0.1+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1
Chicago vs Edmonton+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.1
Colorado vs St. Louis-0.0+0.1+0.0+0.1+0.1-0.0
Boston vs Vancouver-0.0*-0.0*+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT12345678910111213141516171819202122232425262728293031
125-158100
1245513-8946
121-123100
1205315-8991
1195316-79811
1185216-898110
1175217-797111
1165117-895321
1155118-794321
1145018-891631
1134918-987742
1124919-88012530
1114819-974148040
1104820-86617100600
1094720-956221209000
1084721-84526150110010
1074621-93429191150010
1064622-823312221811200
1054522-91530244213103000
1044523-88262562352040000
1034423-94212392384070010
1024424-811619131913701010100
1014324-90101416141710113212000
1004325-8069179191421541040000
994225-90351641816416730701000
984226-80121411416813126010120000
974126-901110912129151011234010
964127-80070581541713213670200
954027-90050241511414611111124100
944028-8003121309121171513572000
933928-90101100581531612101262000
923929-81006024161137161412620000
913829-900041114093181116137310000
903830-800020010041146131816941000
893730-900100702092714191812620000
883731-80000410502714202015731000
873631-900002002002614202217941000
863531-100010100026132023181041000
853532-9010000002613202419114100
843432-100000000261321251910310
833433-90000002614222519920
823434-8000000271625261661
813334-90000139202825122
803234-10000014132530216
793235-9000001719322911
783135-100001312293619
773136-90017234028
763036-10014174038
753037-9002113849
743038-80183458
732938-90042768
722939-8032176
712839-9011781
702840-8011387
692740-90991
682640-100693
672641-90595
662541-10397
652542-9298
642543-8298
632443-9298
622444-8199
6-61100
Total:2334333434343434333333333333333