Dallas Stars Playoff Chances 50/50

Lost to New Jersey 2-5, playoff odds down 6.2 to 46.2%
37 points   18 14-1

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Friday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
New Jersey 5 Dallas 2 -6.2
-0.4
-0.5
Vancouver 4 San Jose 3 (ot)-0.3
NY Rangers 4 Los Angeles 2 +0.2
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Philadelphia vs Dallas-6.2-1.0-1.0+4.2+5.0+5.0
-0.4-0.1-0.1+0.3+0.3+0.3
-0.3-0.1-0.1+0.2+0.2+0.3
Colorado vs Tampa Bay-0.6-0.5-0.5+0.1+0.1+0.7
+0.1*+0.0+0.0-0.0-0.1-0.1
Minnesota vs Edmonton-0.4-0.5-0.5-0.1*-0.1+0.6
Washington vs Anaheim+0.5+0.1*+0.1-0.4-0.4-0.4
St. Louis vs Winnipeg+0.2-0.3-0.3-0.4-0.5*-0.0
Calgary vs Nashville-0.0-0.3-0.3-0.2-0.2+0.2
NY Islanders vs Los Angeles+0.3*+0.1*+0.0-0.2-0.2-0.2

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Dallas finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
122-135InYes1006,015*
121405-4In98.5%98266*
120406-3In98.0100148*
119396-4In98.91000374*
118386-5In96.29900797*
117387-4In95.499111,537*
116377-5In92.898113,096*
115378-4In90.797125,750*
114368-5In86.89613010,753*
113369-4In81.79424019,008*
112359-5In75.39136032,994*
1113510-4In66.68659054,163*
1103410-5In57.6817120087,602*
1093411-4In46.773101710137,360*
1083311-5In35.9651222200207,653*
1073211-6In25.3551527300306,382*
1063212-5In16.1441734500437,891*
1053112-6In9.0331939810610,752*
1043113-5100.0%4.223194413100827,774*
1033013-6100.01.7151846183001,095,139*
1023014-5100.00.581645255001,409,650*
1012914-6100.00.1413423291001,766,135*
1002915-599.90.0293637142002,162,225*
992815-699.60.01628392150002,582,899*
982816-598.90.00321392791003,005,696*
972716-697.2No021435321530003,416,557*
962717-593.3No018283422610003,785,974*
952617-685.7No0042130301220004,103,088*
942618-573.3No0021423342061004,344,536*
932518-656.5No0191532281230004,488,870*
922519-538.3No005825332171004,531,214*
912419-622.3No0024163128144004,467,494*
902420-511.0No0011924322392004,307,677*
892320-64.6No00004152930164004,058,508*
882321-51.6No000182233259103,739,941*
872221-60.5No0000415303316303,362,755*
862222-50.1No000018243625602,957,789*
852122-60.0No000041635331002,543,294*
842123-50.0No00021030401702,138,227*
832023-60.0No0001523432611,754,787*
822024-50.0No000316433521,406,929*
811924-6OutNo00111394541,106,331*
801925-5OutNo000634536847,399*
791825-6OutNo003275910634,835*
781826-5OutNo002206314464,348*
771726-6OutNo001156520330,995*
761727-5OutNo00106426231,565*
751627-6OutNo0076132157,560*
741628-5OutNo0045639105,359*
731528-6OutNo03514668,503*
721529-5OutNo02455343,080*
711429-6OutNo01396026,565*
701430-5OutNo0326716,103*
691330-6OutNo028729,367*
681331-5OutNo023765,338*
671231-6OutNo17833,050*
661232-5OutNo15851,629*
651132-6OutNo1189922*
641133-5OutNo892430*
631033-6OutNo991221*
621034-5OutNo496121*
60-61OutNo10075*
59835-6OutNo89213*
37-58OutNo1005,964*
Total:46.2%0.8%228121111111010986174,239,272

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Dallas finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupNashvilleVegasSt. LouisLos AngelesWinnipegSan JoseMinnesotaChicagoCalgaryAnaheimVancouverColoradoEdmontonArizona
135490-06.2%8213413513145551230
127432-4NoYes
126433-3No5050
124435-1No6733
123425-2No17251781717
122415-34.91021752210157210
121405-47.6828314515126511932
120406-35.46314310512111045123
119396-44.8821141641611644112
118386-53.9721141551713552123
117387-46.6931131351413544102
116377-56.58213413514135551130
115378-46.19312413415145441020
114368-56.89212414515145541020
113369-46.09212414415145541020
112359-56.29213414414145541020
1113510-46.31021331441414544920
1103410-56.41121431541414444920
1093411-46.21221531541413443920
1083311-56.11321631631413443920
1073211-66.31421721631313333810
1063212-56.31621821731312332710
1053112-66.21721921821312322710
1043113-56.31922021821312222610
1033013-66.32022121821211221610
1023014-56.22022121821211211600
1012914-66.32132131821211111500
1002915-56.32152141721110111500
992815-66.2206205173109211500
982816-56.2208196154108221400
972716-66.1191018714498221400
2615-86.0191017814587221300
962717-55.8191116813576221300
2818-35.8191116812576221300
952617-65.4181215911565221200
2516-85.3181214910565221200
942618-54.616111289454111200
932518-63.5139966333111100
922519-52.496654222110100
912419-61.454432111000000
902420-50.732211100000000
892320-60.311110000000000
882321-50.100000000000000
872221-60.000000000000000
862222-50.000000000000000
852223-40.0000000000000
842123-50.0000000000
832124-4No000000
822125-3No0
37-81No
Total:2.9%9.54.58.43.46.72.04.03.60.90.80.51.70.20.0
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Friday100.0*Lottery seed
New Jersey 5 Dallas 2 +1.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday100.0*Lottery seed
Philadelphia vs Dallas+1.1+0.2+0.2-0.7-0.9-0.9
Minnesota vs Edmonton+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.1
Colorado vs Tampa Bay+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.0-0.0-0.1
Calgary vs Nashville-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.0
St. Louis vs Winnipeg-0.0+0.1+0.0+0.1+0.1-0.0

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT12345678910111213141516171819202122232425262728293031
122-135100
121405-4982
120406-3982
119396-49910
118386-596300
117387-495311
116377-593511
115378-491712
114368-5879130
113369-48212240
112359-5751536000
1113510-46719509000
1103410-5582370120000
1093411-4472690160010
1083311-536291202100200
1073211-62530141271030000
1063212-516281623211050000
1053112-69241633531080010
1043113-5419155365301300100
1033013-62131273295018003000
1023014-5188825128024105000
1012914-60458161510128210901000
1002915-50227814121305201402000
992815-601153111232695020150000
982816-50003179418128025290100
972716-6002035510141112751403000
962717-50010125412112241021161000
952617-60000013171031614264122000
942618-50000002036481525919610000
932518-60001013431217152414410000
922519-500000001317817232212410000
912419-600000020321415242112410000
902420-50000010108617242213520000
892320-60000000042717242215720000
882321-5000000102716232316831000
872221-6000000002715232417831000
862222-5000000002615232518830000
852122-60000000261524251882000
842123-500000027162526166100
832023-60000002819282513400
822024-500001311233023910
811924-6000151528301740
801925-50002822342681
791825-60014143134152
781826-5000182539233
771726-600041839326
761727-500212364011
751627-60017304617
741628-5004244924
731528-6002174932
721529-501124740
711429-60084349
701430-50053858
691330-6033265
681331-5022870
671231-612079
661232-501782
651132-601288
641133-501090
631033-61090
621034-5595
611035-4298
60935-5100
59835-6892
37-58100
Total:1111322153317474665544444332210