Dallas Stars Playoff Chances 50/50

Lost to Carolina 0-3, playoff odds down 3.6 to 75.4%
63 points   29 24-5

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Saturday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup
Carolina 3 Dallas 0 -6.0
-0.4
San Jose 3 Vancouver 2 +1.0
Chicago 2 Columbus 5 +1.0
+0.1
Colorado 0 St. Louis 3 +0.5
Arizona 2 Toronto 0 -0.4
Los Angeles 2 Boston 4 +0.3
NY Islanders 5 Edmonton 2 +0.3
Vegas 5 Nashville 1 -0.3
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Sunday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup
Minnesota vs St. Louis-0.6-1.0-0.9-0.1-0.2+1.0
-0.0-0.1-0.1*-0.0*-0.0+0.1
Anaheim vs Washington-0.2-0.2-0.2+0.1+0.1+0.3

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Dallas finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
111240-0In7.0%955141,175
110230-1In2.286113178
109231-0In1.8811631,086*
108221-1In0.8732253,928*
107211-2In0.461309014,596*
106212-1In0.1493813041,286*
105202-2In0.03644190111,477*
104203-1In0.024482710262,044*
103193-2In0.015483520576,626*
102194-1InNo84444301,151,161*
101184-2InNo43752702,165,652*
100174-3InNo2295712003,758,571*
99175-2InNo1205820106,174,286*
98165-3InNo0135529309,466,933*
97166-2100.0%No07483960013,823,076*
96156-3100.0No043847110018,955,446*
95157-2100.0No022852180024,807,043*
94147-3100.0No0118522810030,664,287*
93148-2100.0No011493730017,137,317
137-499.9No0010473930019,123,436*
92138-399.8No05404870019,500,707
149-199.7No064047700021,134,947*
91139-298.9No02305314100043,605,370*
90129-396.4No01205224300044,463,695*
891210-291.3No00134534810019,813,003
119-489.5No001143369100023,624,781*
881110-378.6No006314118300019,330,397
1211-178.1No006314118300021,048,736*
871111-260.4No0031839299100035,990,643*
861011-339.3No018303619510030,541,169*
851012-220.8No00317343012200024,845,461*
84912-38.5No0018243524810019,222,583*
83913-22.6No0021330331840014,263,615*
82813-30.6No0015183329122010,045,072*
81814-20.1No00018253523616,779,270*
80714-30.0No000031432341524,336,540*
79715-20.0No0001623382662,651,100*
78615-3OutNo002133538131,532,920*
77616-2OutNo0006254524843,604*
76516-3OutNo002164537439,396*
75517-2OutNo0183952216,246*
74417-3OutNo004316599,571*
73418-2OutNo02227643,376*
72318-3OutNo1158417,520*
71319-2OutNo09906,514*
70320-1OutNo06942,253*
69220-2OutNo397765*
68221-1OutNo199187*
64-67OutNo10068*
63024-0OutNo010041,133
Total:75.4%0.0%02922271610642110512,720,246

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Dallas finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupCalgarySan JoseWinnipegNashvilleVegasSt. LouisMinnesotaArizonaColoradoVancouverChicagoEdmontonAnaheimLos Angeles
111240-06.3%000571624161174352
110230-17.31481825111175262
109231-07.61952123121165232
108221-16.30011152322111065232
107211-26.3002154261910964231
106212-16.400319329188754221
105202-26.300423331157643121
104203-16.200528233135533111
103193-26.200733233114422110
102194-16.30093813393321010
101184-26.200114213182211000
100174-36.200144512961211000
99175-26.300164702751101000
98165-36.310184802541100000
97166-26.211194902440100000
155-46.311204802440100000
96156-36.222214802240100000
167-16.321214802240100000
95157-26.332244602130100000
146-46.233244602030100000
94147-36.344274301830100000
158-16.344274301830100000
93148-26.265303901620100000
137-46.276313801520100000
92138-36.2108343401220000000
149-16.297333501320000000
127-56.2119343201120000000
91139-26.2131036290910000000
128-46.2141136270910000000
117-66.2141136270910000000
90129-36.0181436220610000000
1310-16.1171336230710000000
118-56.0191435200610000000
891210-25.7211633160400000000
119-45.6211632150400000000
108-65.6211632150400000000
881110-34.9221627100300000000
1211-15.1221728110300000000
109-54.722162590200000000
871111-23.920152060200000000
1010-43.719141860100000000
861011-32.514101130100000000
851012-21.386610000000000
84912-30.532200000000000
83913-20.211100000000
82813-30.000000000000
81814-20.0000000
80714-30.0000000
79715-20.00000
63-78No
Total:4.7%10.68.222.922.40.38.91.40.10.30.00.20.00.00.0
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Saturday100.0*Lottery seed
Carolina 3 Dallas 0 +1.0
Chicago 2 Columbus 5 -0.1
San Jose 3 Vancouver 2 -0.1
Colorado 0 St. Louis 3 +0.1
Vegas 5 Nashville 1 -0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Sunday100.0*Lottery seed
Minnesota vs St. Louis-0.1+0.1+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.0

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT12345678910111213141516171819202122232425262728293031
111240-07885010
110230-1284923
109231-027915130
108221-1172202410
107211-20612457200
106212-1049281084100
105202-203628161082000
104203-10242523101340100
103193-20151929819801000
102194-18133262413231000
101184-24730326185430000
100174-3232612420126700000
99175-21119019182161300100
98165-30012012123052310210
97166-2007077343332142000
96156-3004033321393456000
95157-200201126040395130000
94147-30010017035315423100000
93148-20000100261202361200000
92138-300050170221461600000
91139-20003010021052112000000
128-4000209020053114000000
90129-30001401605212411100000
1310-1001401505112411100000
891210-2000101004403512421000
881110-30000060310410377310000
871111-200003018039029141041000
861011-3001803001617201241000
851012-200031700312242312410000
84912-30001800151727241341000
83913-200200171928251341000
82813-3001000281928251341000
81814-200000028192825134100
80714-30000002820292512300
79715-2000000292230241020
78615-300031125312171
77616-20014152931173
76516-3000162135289
75517-200211303818
74417-3015224330
73418-2002134144
72318-30173558
71319-2032770
70320-1021979
69220-201188
68221-1595
67121-2991
66122-12575
64-65100
63024-00100
Total:0001011701219126016012444322110000