Dallas Stars Playoff Chances 50/50

Lost to Boston 1-2 (ot), playoff odds down 0.4 to 58.7%
17 points   8 5-1

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Monday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Boston 2 Dallas 1 (ot)-0.9
*-0.2
Washington 4 Edmonton 2 +0.3
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Arizona vs Philadelphia-0.3*-0.1*+0.1*-0.0*+0.1+0.3
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Tuesday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Columbus vs Dallas-5.3-0.9-0.7+3.4+4.1+4.4
-0.4*-0.1*+0.1+0.2+0.4+0.3
-1.1-0.4-0.2+0.7+1.0+0.9
St. Louis vs Carolina-0.4-0.6*-0.2*-0.0*+0.4+0.5
Toronto vs Vegas+0.3*+0.1*-0.1*+0.0*-0.3-0.3
Detroit vs Vancouver+0.2*+0.1*+0.2*-0.1*-0.4-0.2

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Dallas finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
122-153In99.5%100218*
1214812-8In98.999190*
1204813-7InYes100117*
1194814-6In99.51000215*
1184714-7In98.39900357*
1174715-6In98.1991528*
1164615-7In97.39911786*
1154515-8In95.198011,231*
1144516-7In92.396121,783*
1134416-8In91.095232,587*
1124417-7In85.7932503,601*
1114317-8In80.3904605,031*
1104318-7In72.38669006,952*
1094218-8In62.680712009,064*
1084219-7In52.4731016111,741*
1074119-8In41.46513211015,456*
1064120-7In29.75616253019,097*
1054020-8In19.145193240023,377*
1044021-7In10.935213670028,575*
1033921-8In5.3252340111034,006*
1023922-7In2.0172243152039,798*
1013822-8100.0%0.71021442040045,542*
1003823-7100.00.1618442661051,501*
993723-899.90.03144031102057,237*
983724-799.70.011035361530062,507*
973624-899.10.007283820610066,793*
963625-797.7No042137241120070,203*
953525-893.9No0215342617510072,669*
943526-786.5No011029242310300074,148*
933426-874.3No0623192617720074,360*
923326-957.6No031613252413510073,247*
913327-840.3No0211720262010300071,183*
903328-724.1No017313242617720067,231*
893228-812.2No004171827241441063,679*
883128-95.6No002031123282192058,736*
873129-82.2No01015162728165153,041*
863029-90.8No0000292231249247,282*
853030-80.3No00001515283117341,603*
842930-90.1No00029233425735,825*
832931-80.0No000151733331230,150*
822932-70.0No00021129382024,971*
812832-80.0No001623422820,802*
802833-7OutNo00317413817,111*
792733-8OutNo0212394813,339*
782633-9OutNo017355710,437*
772634-8OutNo0530657,970*
762635-7OutNo00323746,092*
752535-8OutNo0219794,307*
742435-9OutNo0114853,172*
732436-8OutNo0011892,337*
722437-7OutNo07931,623*
712337-8OutNo07931,152*
702338-7OutNo397728*
692238-8OutNo496526*
682239-7OutNo199306*
672139-8OutNo199222*
662140-7OutNo199141*
17-65OutNo100347*
Total:58.7%3.8%7515158877666541,437,130

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Dallas finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupNashvilleMinnesotaCalgaryEdmontonWinnipegVancouverColoradoArizonaSan JoseAnaheimChicagoSt. LouisVegasLos Angeles
153680-08.7%10711105877766475
1285310-5NoYes
1275311-4No333333
1265110-720.02020202020
1255111-612.51313131313131313
1245112-5No25171717888
1235012-67.44441941941574154
1224912-78.5154661311611442664
1214812-84.4117227416783121263
1204813-75.14538531596615966
1194814-66.0995677959411973
1184714-76.7109451181174571234
1174715-67.498351191054610875
1164615-76.98965861075610766
1154515-84.261165106107668755
1144516-76.391066105105759855
1134416-86.091066116105559863
1124417-75.981055107107659954
1114317-86.691065106105669954
1104318-75.591056116115659854
1094218-86.4101155115116559854
1084219-76.2111255115115559854
1074119-86.31112541251155510943
1064120-76.2121344124124549843
1054020-86.2131444134134449933
1044021-76.2151433134133439933
1033921-86.3161633143143339932
1023922-76.3171733143143339822
1013822-86.3181733143143329822
1003823-76.3181733153142229921
993723-86.3191733143143229821
983724-76.4191733143143329821
973624-86.4191743143133328821
963625-76.1181644134123328721
953525-85.9181554124114327621
943526-75.2171354104104326621
933426-84.51511548483325411
923427-73.7128436363213311
913327-82.496324242212210
903328-71.554213131111100
893228-80.832111111101100
883229-70.311001010000000
873129-80.100000000000000
863130-70.00000000000000
853030-80.00000000000000
843031-70.0000000000
832931-8No000000
823134-3No00
812731-10No000
17-80No
Total:3.7%10.59.12.52.37.62.27.42.12.01.54.84.41.30.9
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Monday100.0*Lottery seed
Boston 2 Dallas 1 (ot)*+0.2
Washington 4 Edmonton 2 -0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Tuesday100.0*Lottery seed
Columbus vs Dallas+1.1+0.2+0.2-0.7-0.9-0.9
San Jose vs Minnesota-0.1-0.0-0.1+0.1+0.1+0.0
St. Louis vs Carolina+0.0+0.1+0.1*+0.0-0.1-0.1
Tampa Bay vs Edmonton-0.0*+0.0*-0.0*+0.0-0.1+0.0
Detroit vs Vancouver-0.0*-0.0*+0.0-0.0+0.1+0.0
Los Angeles vs Anaheim-0.0*+0.1*+0.1*-0.0+0.0*-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT12345678910111213141516171819202122232425262728293031
123-153100
1224912-7982
1214812-8991
1204813-7100
1194814-61000
1184714-798100
1174715-69811
1164615-797111
1154515-895301
1144516-792412
1134416-891423
1124417-7867250
1114317-88010460
1104318-77213509000
1094218-8631770120000
1084219-7522110016001
1074119-84124120200010
1064120-730261512410300
1054020-819261822831400
1044021-711241933042070000
1033921-852018530830100010
1023922-7215157261260141020
1013822-811012919169018104000
1003823-705810121812121316010
993723-8034106171422273010020
983724-701282141451811601413000
973624-8001609118121610018360100
963625-700404710617132186100200
953525-80020241021314515111525100
943526-700111808128915185103100
933426-800060471241615111582000
923326-90003023121129161715720000
913327-800021190731713191683100
903328-700010060311261520181151000
893228-800004010727152120147210000
883128-90000200302614202216941000
873129-80001010026122022181141000
863029-90000001511192320125100
853030-800000001410192421135100
842930-90000141019242213510
832931-80000014112126221130
822932-70000151324272081
812832-8000026162729164
802833-70003102232258
792733-801515303415
782633-90210263923
772634-8015204034
762635-7002143945
752535-800193654
742435-9152867
732436-8032374
722437-711881
712337-8011485
702338-70991
692238-80793
682239-7595
672139-8298
662140-7298
17-65100
Total:4332543354335444433333333332222