Carolina Hurricanes Playoff Chances 50/50

Did not play, playoff odds down 0.1 to 37.4%
49 points   21 16-7

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Wednesday100.0*Chance in playoffs
Montreal 1 Pittsburgh 4 -0.1
Detroit 6 Boston 5 (so)*+0.1
Edmonton 4 Florida 3 (ot)*+0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Thursday100.0*Chance in playoffs
NY Islanders vs Dallas-0.6-0.6-0.4+0.2+0.2+0.7
Toronto vs NY Rangers+0.4-0.3-0.2-0.5-0.5-0.2
Columbus vs Ottawa+0.4*+0.0+0.0-0.3-0.3-0.3
San Jose vs Tampa Bay+0.3+0.1+0.1-0.2-0.3-0.3
St. Louis vs Washington+0.1*-0.0*+0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Carolina finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
125380-0In100.0%1000140,996
120-123InYes10060*
119342-2In96.3973188*
118332-3In95.5964538*
117333-2In92.5930601,541*
116323-3In89.8910804,326*
115324-2In83.886013011,043*
114314-3In75.7800191026,647*
113304-4In67.4731242059,849*
112305-3In56.864131400129,794*
111295-4In45.354237600264,861*
110296-3In33.5442431110516,158*
109286-4In22.6333471620959,924*
108287-3100.0%13.723347233001,703,134*
107277-4In7.31534531602,903,382*
106278-3100.03.393403811104,745,451*
105268-4100.01.352324317107,468,955*
104269-3100.00.4212445253011,303,073*
103259-4100.00.11117433350016,498,153*
1022510-399.90.000113841100023,235,503*
1012410-499.70.00063147160031,606,514*
1002310-599.20.000323492310041,560,246*
992311-498.10.000116483220052,867,185*
982211-595.9No001104442400065,101,578*
972212-491.7No000636508000077,601,090*
962112-584.5No00032754141000089,671,725*
952113-473.2No00118542330000100,462,295*
942013-557.9No001104732810000109,110,250*
932014-440.4No005353817410000115,020,996*
921914-524.1No0022237261020000117,631,389*
911915-411.9No0011129321971000116,764,505*
901815-54.8No0005183027144100112,524,022*
891816-41.5No0002922302311300105,310,652*
881716-50.4No00041326291971095,681,220*
871717-40.1No00016182927154084,453,197*
861617-50.0No0000292331249172,358,365*
851618-40.0No0001414293117460,232,994*
841518-50.0No00018223427848,673,077*
831519-40.0No000031432361538,183,407*
821419-5OutNo0001825412529,086,393*
811420-4OutNo000418423721,515,072*
801320-5OutNo000111384915,437,347*
791321-4OutNo00016336110,748,371*
781221-5OutNo000326717,251,080*
771222-4OutNo00219804,744,804*
761122-5OutNo00113863,007,684*
751123-4OutNo009911,847,593*
741023-5OutNo006941,098,854*
731024-4OutNo0496632,666*
721025-3OutNo0298351,269*
71925-4OutNo0199189,620*
70926-3OutNo019998,300*
69826-4OutNo010048,764*
68827-3OutNo010023,483*
67727-4OutNo010010,923*
66728-3OutNo01004,976*
65628-4OutNo01001,944*
64629-3OutNo100832*
63529-4OutNo0100328*
49-62OutNo100141,174*
Total:37.4%0.1%0014122014109876531,701,029,760

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Carolina finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupColumbusWashingtonPittsburghMontrealNY RangersTorontoOttawaBostonPhiladelphiaFloridaTampa BayDetroitNY IslandersNew JerseyBuffalo
125380-06.4%79231352226111251
123360-2YesYes
122361-1No333333
121351-211.122111111111122
120341-32.166193242292449
119342-26.991020354228123141
118332-36.9612191372238111340
117333-25.4712191362227111251
116323-35.7912201352227111351
115324-25.91013211331127111241
114314-36.31215210311127111241
113304-46.21317221291116111241
112305-36.21519221261116111231
111295-46.31822221231115111230
110296-36.32024231211114100120
109286-46.22226231181113000120
108287-36.22327232161112000110
107277-46.32428234141112000110
106278-36.22428226122211000010
105268-46.223272010113311000000
104269-36.22225181494411000000
103259-46.32023161885611110000
1022510-36.21921142376720110000
1012410-46.21819122667820111000
1002310-56.21818112757820111000
992311-46.11918102747820111000
2210-66.11918102747820111000
982211-56.02119102537720111000
2312-36.02119102547720111000
972212-45.82319102236610110000
2111-65.72319102236610110000
962112-55.3241991734510000000
2213-35.4242091835510000000
2011-75.2241991734510000000
952113-44.6231891323310000000
2012-64.5231891323310000000
942013-53.620157822200000000
2114-33.620167822200000000
932014-42.515115511100000000
921914-51.51073210000000000
911915-40.7542100000000000
901916-30.3211000000000000
891816-40.1100000000000000
881817-30.0000000000000000
871717-40.0000000000000000
861718-30.000000000000000
851618-40.000000000
841619-30.0000000
831519-4No0
49-82No
Total:2.3%10.28.64.57.41.61.92.00.40.10.20.20.10.00.00.1
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

WednesdayNone
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Thursday100.0*Lottery seed
Toronto vs NY Rangers-0.1+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.0

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
125380-010000
120-123100
119342-29613
118332-39614
117333-2921060
116323-3902080
115324-28420130
114314-3764019010
113304-4676124020
112305-357710310400
111295-4459203700600
110296-333102043001110
109286-4231030460016020
108287-31410304610230300
107277-478304320310060
106278-336203730038001110
105268-4142028410430017010
104269-3021019510440025030
103259-40110115104200330500
1022510-30000641037104101000
1012410-4000023102920047016000
1002310-50000121020210490230100
992311-40000010012310480320200
982211-5000000063104314204000
972212-40000000221034250080000
962112-5000000011102435401410000
952113-40000001101445212330000
942013-50000000006444332810000
932014-40000000233063817410000
921914-500000002157352711300000
911915-40000001562531218200000
901815-500000013132628188200000
891816-4000000014152526178200000
881716-50000001515242518831000
871717-4000001614232518931000
861617-5000000151423251993000
851618-400000151423261992000
841518-50000016142427197100
831519-40000002616272816400
821419-500000282031261010
811420-40000131227342030
801320-500001519363170
791321-40002113141141
781221-5000152446223
771222-400021546315
761122-5001941399
751123-40005344615
741023-5002264922
731024-4001194931
721025-300134739
71925-40084349
70926-3053758
69826-4033166
68827-322474
67727-411980
66728-311585
65628-401189
64629-30892
63529-4397
62530-3199
56-61100
49038-00100
Total:000010003100111182139765444332210