Carolina Hurricanes Playoff Chances 50/50

Losing to Toronto 0-2 (End 2nd), playoff odds down 0.04 to 14%
56 points   24 22-8

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Sunday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
NY Islanders 6 New Jersey 4 -0.4
Buffalo 1 Chicago 5 +0.3
Ottawa 2 Winnipeg 3 +0.2
NY Rangers 2 Washington 1 -0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Carolina vs Toronto+3.9+3.4+2.9-1.4-1.4-4.5
+0.3+0.2+0.2-0.1-0.1-0.3
+0.0*No*No*No*NoNo
Vancouver vs Philadelphia+0.6*+0.2*+0.2-0.3-0.3-0.5
+0.0+0.1*-0.0*-0.0*-0.0-0.0
San Jose vs Boston+0.4*+0.1*+0.1-0.3-0.3-0.3
Colorado vs Tampa Bay+0.1*+0.0*+0.0*-0.0*-0.1-0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Monday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
St. Louis vs Florida+0.4*+0.1*-0.0-0.3-0.3-0.3

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Carolina finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
112280-0In40.1%50483212
109261-1InNo50502
108262-0InNo50508*
107252-1InNo33432421*
106242-2InNo1213637475*
105243-1InNo111344311161*
104233-2InNo04314520451*
103223-3InNo3194830941*
102224-299.8%No113444201,985*
101214-399.8No07385503,799*
100215-299.3No03306717,147*
99205-398.4No012275212,655*
98206-296.3No0115814020,211*
97196-392.9No09847031,100*
96197-287.1No0582130045,914*
95187-378.2No03762010064,209*
94188-265.1No01643140087,298*
93178-348.3No0484010100111,662*
92168-430.5No03043215100137,005*
91169-315.8No01637311330075,092
158-515.1No015363114400086,452*
90159-45.4No052233261120072,934
1610-26.3No0624332510200108,994*
891510-31.8No0211273220710090,510
149-51.7No2112632217100106,357*
881410-40.3No031428311851082,635
1511-20.4No0415293016510122,499*
871411-30.1No016193228122093,834
1310-50.0No0161831281330111,503*
861311-40.0No00182433248179,702
1412-20.0No002925332371117,573*
851312-3OutNo00314313316381,901
1211-5OutNo00313303317399,343*
841212-4OutNo00162136288161,281*
831213-3OutNo00212313816137,398*
821113-4OutNo015234428113,260*
811114-3OutNo00214424288,620*
801014-4OutNo017355767,396*
791015-3OutNo003276948,869*
78915-4OutNo01197933,839*
77916-3OutNo0128722,800*
76816-4OutNo079214,545*
75817-3OutNo04968,901*
74818-2OutNo02985,275*
73718-3OutNo1992,964*
72719-2OutNo1991,677*
71619-3OutNo100788*
70620-2OutNo0100407*
69520-3OutNo199174*
56-68OutNo100341*
Total:14.0%0.0%00011311101011111111102,562,720

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Carolina finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupWashingtonPittsburghColumbusNY RangersMontrealOttawaFloridaBostonTorontoNY IslandersPhiladelphiaBuffaloTampa BayNew JerseyDetroit
112280-04.7%63332281
109261-1NoYes
108262-0No13383813
107252-19.5191429141455
106242-28.01224179178174
105243-18.116161411722644
104233-25.120131481916352000
103223-35.823111361618453010
102224-26.529101071717442100
101214-35.937996151343200
100215-26.6459106111132200
204-45.54510961111332000
99205-35.85110105982210000
216-16.1511010589221000
194-56.0511111678112000
98206-26.1551011666211000
195-46.3561010655111000
184-65.855101166521100
97196-35.8561111643111000
207-15.6571111644111000
185-55.656111063311100
96197-25.556111062210000
186-45.2551110522000000
175-65.153101062210000
208-06.1591110622100000
95187-35.051101051100000
198-14.9521010611000000
176-54.94910951100000
94188-24.1449850000000
177-43.941984000000
166-63.738984000000
199-04.4461095100000
93178-33.0327640000000
189-13.33677400000
167-52.72966300000
156-72.52566300000
92179-22.12155200000
168-41.81944200000
157-61.61643200000
1810-02.12245200000
91169-31.01022100000
1710-11.1123310000
158-50.7822100
901610-20.44111000
159-40.33110000
891510-30.1100000
881511-20.000000
871411-30.00000
861412-20.0000
56-85No
Total:0.9%8.71.81.71.00.30.30.10.10.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Sunday100.0*Lottery seed
Buffalo 1 Chicago 5 -0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Carolina vs Toronto-0.7-0.6-0.6+0.2+0.2+0.8
Colorado vs Tampa Bay-0.1*-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.0
MondayNone

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
112280-0409483
109261-15050
108262-05050
107252-1334324
106242-2112936374
105243-1174344311
104233-20323014520
103223-3211904830
102224-20113044420
101214-30070038550
100215-20300300671
99205-30100220752
98206-2000001508140
97196-30000908470
96197-2000508201300
95187-30002076020100
94188-2001063131400
93178-3004624010200
92168-40028342216100
91169-3001233531144000
90159-40042213326113000
891510-3011923312392000
881410-400210233023103000
1511-2003122629198200
871411-300031225282082000
1310-5000311242921103000
861311-4001311232821103000
851312-300131123282110300
841212-400131123282110200
831213-3001412242921810
821113-400141427311840
811114-30016183330111
801014-4000292638232
791015-30031638366
78915-40183147130
77916-30032153220
76816-4011353330
75817-30749440
74818-20339571
73718-3130672
72719-2123743
71619-316786
70620-2117811
69520-358313
68521-247126
67421-375934
66422-26238
65423-12575
64222-4100
56028-0496
Total:00000000010121119988776665410