Edmonton Oilers Playoff Chances 50/50

Beat Tampa Bay 3-2, playoff odds up 3.7 to 37.8%
3 points   1 4-1

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Monday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Edmonton 3 Tampa Bay 2 +3.7
+0.2
+0.2
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Tuesday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Calgary vs Tampa Bay-0.4-0.4-0.3*+0.1*+0.1+0.5
Boston vs San Jose+0.5*+0.1*+0.0-0.3-0.4-0.4
Nashville vs Arizona+0.3-0.1*-0.1-0.3-0.3-0.1
Colorado vs Florida-0.3-0.2-0.2*+0.0*+0.0+0.3
Dallas vs Vancouver+0.2-0.2-0.2-0.3-0.3-0.1
Winnipeg vs Carolina-0.2-0.3-0.2*+0.1+0.1+0.3
Chicago vs Philadelphia-0.2-0.2-0.1*+0.0*+0.0+0.3

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Edmonton finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
122-155InYes1004,130*
1215513-8In99.7%1000377*
1205514-7In99.41000662*
1195414-8In99.210001,099*
1185415-7In98.599001,852*
1175315-8In97.699103,118*
1165316-7In96.0981104,939*
1155216-8In94.598117,723*
1145217-7In91.3962211,864*
1135117-8In87.39433017,929*
1125017-9In81.99245026,785*
1115018-8In75.888560038,561*
1104918-9In67.884790055,610*
1094919-8In57.8799120077,992*
1084819-9In47.072121610107,484*
1074820-8In35.7641520200146,382*
1064720-9In24.9541825300194,768*
1054721-8In15.8452030400255,369*
1044621-9100.0%8.73523357100329,628*
1034622-8100.04.026243910100417,775*
1024522-9100.01.617234215200520,225*
1014523-8100.00.5112144204000637,295*
1004423-9100.00.161843267100770,276*
994424-899.90.03143931102000913,439*
984324-999.70.011135351530001,070,383*
974325-899.10.00728372061001,231,362*
964225-997.9No042236251020001,393,410*
954226-895.1No0316332816410001,553,212*
944126-989.7No0110282722820001,707,465*
934127-880.5No01623242715410001,844,702*
924027-967.2No00417182922920001,965,750*
914028-851.3No02111226271551002,057,695*
903928-934.9No0177202923103002,124,529*
893929-821.2No0043132628176102,162,527*
883829-911.2No0021820292412302,166,150*
873830-85.3No0010413262919712,136,068*
863730-92.2No0010172030261222,078,638*
853630-100.8No0000141327321941,989,385*
843631-90.3No00002822342781,877,546*
833531-100.1No000014163234131,745,850*
823532-90.0No000002102839201,600,870*
813432-100.0No0000162242291,443,921*
803433-90.0No0000031742381,283,053*
793333-100.0No000021239481,124,188*
783334-90.0No000183557971,363*
773234-10OutNo0053065825,135*
763235-9OutNo0032473691,495*
753135-10OutNo0021979572,135*
743136-9OutNo0011584464,743*
733036-10OutNo001188371,942*
723037-9OutNo00892293,919*
713038-8OutNo00694228,931*
702938-9OutNo0496175,679*
692939-8OutNo0397131,969*
682839-9OutNo029898,226*
672840-8OutNo019971,443*
662740-9OutNo19951,865*
652741-8OutNo19937,146*
642641-9OutNo010025,919*
632642-8OutNo010017,789*
622542-9OutNo010012,062*
612543-8OutNo01007,951*
602443-9OutNo01005,369*
592444-8OutNo01003,293*
582344-9OutNo01002,201*
572345-8OutNo01001,355*
3-56OutNo1005,744*
Total:37.8%1.0%238107889910121444,169,660

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Edmonton finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupAnaheimChicagoNashvilleLos AngelesSan JoseVancouverDallasCalgaryMinnesotaSt. LouisArizonaWinnipegColorado
155760-06.3%96610109611661056
1285910-7No25252525
1275810-813.37132020713777
1265912-54.851052919510145
1255812-69.196963159153969
1245712-76.6137441154177711111
1235612-84.99499913212771344
1225613-74.1746111210412261375
1215513-85.89551181169681156
1205514-75.61255101011511571045
1195414-85.21044101011711661065
1185415-77.41055101210611561255
1175315-85.7955111111511551254
1165316-75.81154111111511651055
1155216-86.41155111112511551045
1145217-76.21055111111611551055
1135117-86.01155111111511551055
1125017-96.31154121111511551155
1115018-86.21145121111511551155
1104918-96.21144111111511551145
1094919-86.21244121212511551144
1084819-96.21244121212411441144
1074820-86.31244121212412441144
1064720-96.21344131313412441144
1054721-86.31433131313412441133
1044621-96.31433141413312331133
1034622-86.21533141414312331133
1024522-96.31533151414312331222
1014523-86.21633151514212221222
1004423-96.21633151514212221222
994424-86.21633151514312221122
984324-96.21633151414312331122
974325-86.21544141413311331122
964225-96.11555131313311331022
954226-86.0145513121241033922
944126-95.613661211114943822
934127-85.01166101094833722
924027-94.29558873633621
914028-83.27446663422411
903928-92.25334442322311
893929-81.33222321211200
883829-90.72111111100100
873830-80.31001110000000
863730-90.10000000000000
853731-80.10000000000000
843631-90.00000000000000
833632-80.00000000000000
823633-70.00000000000000
813533-80.00000000000000
803433-9No00000000000
793333-100.00000
783334-9No0
3-77No
Total:2.4%5.62.02.05.05.04.71.54.01.31.33.70.80.8
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Monday100.0*Lottery seed
Edmonton 3 Tampa Bay 2 -0.8
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Tuesday100.0*Lottery seed
Boston vs San Jose-0.1+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.0
Calgary vs Tampa Bay+0.0+0.1+0.0+0.0+0.0-0.1
Dallas vs Vancouver-0.1+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.0
Nashville vs Arizona-0.0+0.0-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.0

What If

This isn't your lottery pick because it does not factor in ping pong balls.
It's the final seed that gets you the ping pong balls.
The top 16 seeds are wrong, just ignore them for now.

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
122-155100
1215513-81000
1205514-79900
1195414-89910
1185415-798100
1175315-898210
1165316-7962110
1155216-895311
1145217-791522
1135117-887730300
1125017-98210450
1115018-876135060000
1104918-968167080000
1094919-8582190120000
1084819-947251201500100
1074820-8362814119102000
1064720-92530161232030000
1054721-81629182263140000
1044621-992618428620700100
1034622-84211762793010001000
1024522-921614923145014102000
1014523-801010111718801820040000
1004423-906712102111120410701000
994424-8034115201232092010020000
984324-9012921612616145014130000
974325-800170109910187017460100
964225-9004066105201021781012000
954226-800203310217114141414241000
944126-90010118011989191668200000
934127-8001006065114201413125100000
924027-900000040331111792015115200000
914028-8000020119012422121612621000
903928-90001000607119714181483100000
893929-80000004030132816201710410000
883829-90000002010813916211912620000
873830-8000010004013916222114620000
863730-900001001001381623221572000
853630-100000001000138172323157200
843631-90000000013918242315610
833531-100000000013101926231340
823532-900000000141223282192
813432-100000000026162729174
803433-90000000292232258
793333-10000001515313415
783334-90000029263924
773234-10000015204134
763235-900002143945
753135-1000193555
743136-900053065
733036-100032473
723037-90021980
713038-8011485
702938-9001089
692939-800793
682839-900595
672840-80396
662740-90298
652741-80298
642641-90199
632642-8199
622542-90100
612543-80100
602443-90100
592444-80100
582344-90100
572345-80100
3-56100
Total:111222222323343533334444555667