Edmonton Oilers Playoff Chances 50/50

Lost to Winnipeg 2-4, playoff odds down 3.2 to 92.4%
83 points   37 25-9

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Wednesday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup
Edmonton 2 Winnipeg 4 -3.2
-0.2
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Thursday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup
Calgary vs NY Islanders-0.9-0.9-0.9+0.1+0.1+1.1
-0.1-0.1-0.1*+0.0*+0.0+0.1
Arizona vs Vancouver+0.6-0.2-0.2-0.5-0.7-0.4
Toronto vs Nashville+0.5+0.1+0.1-0.4-0.4-0.4
Minnesota vs Vegas-0.3-0.4-0.3+0.0*+0.0+0.4
Dallas vs Florida-0.1-0.1-0.1*+0.0+0.0+0.2

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Edmonton finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
105110-0In0.0%19810377,630
104100-1In0.089010812,196
103101-0In0.0493302,753,265
90-2InNo39340925,024
10291-1InNo192706,273,994
80-3InNo189100632,181
10192-0InNo08712010,636,018
81-2InNo0841606,721,200*
10082-1InNo076240021,798,982
71-3InNo07029003,997,009*
9983-0InNo066341024,664,114*
72-2InNo0603910019,875,271
61-4InNo054451001,557,485
9873-1100.0%No04850300044,895,264
62-3100.0No04155400010,560,792
51-5InNo356050429,376*
9774-0100.0No035596000038,046,235
63-2100.0No03062800035,806,093
52-4100.0No2466100003,687,745*
9664-1100.0No196515100060,669,458
53-3100.0No156618100016,304,222
42-5100.0No1166221000832,539*
9554-299.9No86129210041,458,835
65-099.9No116225200041,138,575
43-499.8No6583321004,769,989*
9455-199.3No450403310056,214,377
44-398.9No246434310015,741,227
33-598.4No1424644100859,148*
9345-295.6No1335057410032,019,019
56-096.8No1374856300031,762,648
34-494.0No02951595103,680,745*
9246-186.6No020514111130036,180,223
35-383.3No01750412134009,725,966
24-579.9No0154931315500497,129*
9147-070.8No011452121991017,516,474
36-266.5No094321221111016,479,103
25-461.7No08412112314101,699,270*
9037-145.6No04331826244015,960,268
26-340.7No0330172728503,904,927*
8938-027.2No022104233811106,762,102
27-223.9No01190322411215,454,747
16-420.7No1170321431410434,224*
8828-112.0No01101144625304,622,026
17-39.9No090113462740847,207*
8729-05.4No050074139901,741,367
18-24.4No040064040901,101,029*
8619-11.6No0200228481900873,873*
85110-00.5No000116483320359,153*
84010-10.1No00739477061,667
83011-00.0No0032655161072,383
Total:92.4%0.0%0234223234310000664,193,794

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Edmonton finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupSt. LouisColoradoVegasDallasVancouverWinnipegCalgaryNashvilleMinnesotaArizonaChicagoAnaheimLos AngelesSan Jose
105110-06.2%001183255242111
104100-16.20011942462420110
103101-06.3001195246242011000
90-26.20011952472319110
10291-16.2001197238221910000
80-36.300118922922182000
10192-06.3001189229211820000
81-26.200117112111201720000
70-46.30011613201319162000
10082-16.300215151914181520000
71-36.200214171716171420000
60-56.300213201618151320
9983-06.200313191617161320000
72-26.200312221519141230000
61-46.200411241322131130000
9873-16.200510271223111030000
62-36.3005829102610830000
51-56.30067319288730000
9774-06.30077329268730000
63-26.30076338297640000
52-46.20085356326540000
9664-16.300104375324440000
53-36.300103384343340000
42-56.200112393363240000
9554-26.200122402352240000
65-06.200122393343240000
43-46.210121402371140000
32-66.211121391391140000
9455-16.221141401351140000
44-36.221140391361140000
33-56.222130380370040000
9356-06.033140370340040000
45-26.043130360340040000
34-45.954130350330040000
9246-15.465110310290040000
35-35.266100300280030000
24-55.0679028027003000
9147-04.46680240240030000
36-24.26670230220030000
25-43.85660220210020000
9037-12.94440160160020000
26-32.5343015014001000
8938-01.7222010010001000
27-21.51220909001000
8828-10.701104500000
8729-00.30000220000
8619-10.1000110000
85110-00.00000000
84010-10.0000
83011-0No00
Total:5.8%1.51.48.54.630.25.827.05.34.63.30.10.00.00.0
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Wednesday100.0*Lottery seed
Edmonton 2 Winnipeg 4 +1.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Thursday100.0*Lottery seed
Minnesota vs Vegas-0.3-0.0-0.0+0.2+0.2+0.2
Calgary vs NY Islanders+0.2+0.2+0.2-0.0-0.0-0.3
Arizona vs Vancouver-0.3-0.0-0.0+0.2+0.2+0.2

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT12345678910111213141516171819202122232425262728293031
105110-001942380000
104100-108296101000
103101-004187601100
90-23157801210
10291-117840233000
80-31683024400
10192-003850237000
81-2028202410000
10082-1017502319000000
71-300700232400000
9983-0006601231000000
72-20060012360100000
61-40054012420100000
9873-1004800148021000000
62-30041015402100000
51-50350159031000
9774-0003500580321000000
63-2003000620431000000
52-42400650442000000
9664-119006505640000000
53-315006605760100000
42-511006606870100000
9554-2800610591402000000
65-01100620591101000000
43-46005805101702010000
9455-1400500310260312000000
44-3200460310300413100000
33-5104221033041411000
9345-21003318410517121000
56-01003728380516111000
34-402917430508222000
9246-10200546040112452000
35-30170446040122563000
24-50150345030132684100
9147-001102430201216119200
36-2090242020121613113000
25-40801402011161413400
9037-104013210804152212200
26-303002910703142515200
8938-0020021004011027277100
27-201001900301927309100
16-4101703017273311100
8828-1001101003193922400
17-300901002174025500
8729-000500019343613200
18-200400017333815200
8619-102000021940298100
85110-0000008293920400
84010-100214343414200
83011-0005223727810
Total:0002200041025160203012221000000