Edmonton Oilers Playoff Chances 50/50

Lost to Buffalo 3-4 (ot), playoff odds down 0.06 to 68.8%
32 points   14 10-4

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Tuesday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Buffalo 4 Edmonton 3 (ot)-0.8
-0.2
-0.2
New Jersey 3 Vancouver 2 +0.6
Chicago 4 Arizona 0 +0.4
Dallas 1 Calgary 2 *-0.2
Winnipeg 3 Detroit 4 (so)*+0.1
St. Louis 3 Montreal 2 (ot)*-0.1
*-0.1
NY Islanders 4 NY Rangers 2 +0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Anaheim vs Carolina-0.4-0.5-0.3*+0.1*+0.0+0.5
San Jose vs Ottawa-0.3*-0.3-0.3*+0.1*-0.1+0.4
Toronto vs Minnesota+0.4*-0.0*+0.0*-0.2*-0.3-0.3

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Edmonton finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
120-140InYes100289*
119418-5In95.9%99173*
117-118In98.0100307*
116399-6In97.89900320*
1153910-5In96.79910645*
1143810-6In94.299101,014*
1133811-5In90.498201,726*
1123711-6In85.496312,685*
1113712-5In79.795414,028*
1103612-6In73.993516,182*
1093613-5In62.6898209,021*
1083513-6In51.284124012,780*
1073514-5In39.579165017,826*
1063414-6In28.372208024,616*
1053415-5In18.1632511032,564*
1043315-6In9.95331151042,101*
1033316-5In4.74335201053,313*
1023216-6In1.63239263066,048*
1013116-7In0.523413140080,190*
1003117-6In0.114403870094,466*
993017-7In0.0837421110109,986*
983018-6100.0%0.04324517200124,357*
972918-7100.0No2264523400137,885*
962919-699.9No11943297100150,004*
952819-799.7No0133835113000158,384*
942820-698.9No0831381661000165,415*
932720-796.6No05243919113000167,521*
922721-690.9No021636191772000166,715*
912621-780.9No1103117221451000162,252*
902622-665.6No0624122321103000155,406*
892522-747.5No031772026187100145,252*
882523-630.3No0211314262514410133,106*
872423-716.8No01618222922920120,048*
862424-68.2No003041528291640104,684*
852324-73.5No0020292231249190,205*
842325-61.4No0101415303115376,099*
832225-70.4No00029243524662,648*
822226-60.1No00151734321150,549*
812126-70.0No00021130391840,191*
802127-60.0No0001724422731,228*
792027-70.0No000417423623,788*
782028-6OutNo0212404617,313*
771928-7OutNo17365612,807*
761929-6OutNo0530659,333*
751829-7OutNo0224746,380*
741830-6OutNo0118804,338*
731730-7OutNo114862,933*
721731-6OutNo0010891,935*
711732-5OutNo08921,274*
701632-6OutNo0693755*
691633-5OutNo496470*
681533-6OutNo397279*
671534-5OutNo199160*
661434-6OutNo19994*
32-65OutNo100352*
Total:68.8%1.9%7121918777765432,884,340

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Edmonton finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupChicagoSt. LouisSan JoseMinnesotaLos AngelesAnaheimNashvilleCalgaryWinnipegDallasVancouverColoradoArizona
140540-07.1%45910861181110584
127454-5NoYes
126444-6No5050
123436-5No171717171717
122437-427.39999189279
121427-5No888231515158
120417-65.91266612126181266
119418-51.4101210811107710115
118419-44.6841378877913456
117409-56.68658128115881068
116399-65.6656898871114774
1153910-56.767778898911875
1143810-65.866881099899756
1133811-56.756789999109875
1123711-66.0577898109109765
1113712-55.95579810910911765
1103612-66.156889999109765
1093613-56.456789999109765
1083513-65.955889109999765
1073514-56.45678101091098765
1063414-66.25688101091088755
1053415-56.35698101181098755
1043315-66.355108111181087755
1033316-56.155117121281177745
1023216-66.455127131371176745
1013116-76.445136141471165744
1003117-66.144146151561255735
993017-76.444165151651254835
983018-66.333174171641344825
972918-76.133184171741333825
962919-66.233193181831322815
952819-76.243203181831422815
942820-66.344203181821321815
2921-46.144203181831321815
932720-76.065203171721211814
922721-65.776193151521111704
912621-75.17616313132911603
902622-64.17613310102711402
892522-73.065102772500302
882523-61.94361441300201
872423-71.02231221100100
862424-60.51120110100000
852425-50.20010100000000
842325-60.1000000000000
832326-50.00000000000
822226-60.00000000000
812227-5No000000
802228-4No0000
792027-7No0
32-78No
Total:4.3%3.93.612.13.010.810.72.88.12.22.05.21.23.1
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Tuesday100.0*Lottery seed
Buffalo 4 Edmonton 3 (ot)+0.2
New Jersey 3 Vancouver 2 -0.1
Chicago 4 Arizona 0 -0.1
Dallas 1 Calgary 2 +0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday100.0*Lottery seed
Anaheim vs Carolina+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.0*-0.0-0.1
San Jose vs Ottawa+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.0+0.0-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
120-140100
119418-59631
118419-4982
117409-5982
116399-698200
1153910-597210
1143810-694510
1133811-590820
1123711-68511301
1113712-58015401
1103612-67419501
1093613-56327802000
1083513-651331104000
1073514-540391515000
1063414-628441827100
1053415-518452149200
1043315-6104323811310100
1033316-55382312126101000
1023216-623121191211302000
1013116-702316259175041000
1003117-6014112962281520000
993017-7086313251046510100
983018-604329123129692020000
972918-7212401810164153031000
962919-6101801272421962441000
952819-7001307427120864821000
942820-60083226017813213331000
932720-70051022012521118372100000
922721-602001673260192143321000
912621-710010312601712135542000
902622-60006102201202325896310000
892522-7000300170702003712131052000
882523-6002001130140139161813721000
872423-7010061800141118211683100
862424-600030400141220231893100
852324-700020200015132225189300
842325-60101001614242518820
832225-7000000271625261661
822226-60000039192826122
812126-7000014122532216
802127-6000001618323112
792027-7000311283720
782028-60016224130
771928-7003154042
761929-60193753
751829-70053163
741830-6032473
731730-711980
721731-6011485
711732-511188
701632-60891
691633-5595
681533-6397
671534-5199
661434-6199
32-65100
Total:253926391628161611122333333221