Edmonton Oilers Playoff Chances 50/50

Season start, playoff odds unchanged at 57.1%
0 points   0 0-0

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Los Angeles vs San Jose+0.1-0.2-0.2-0.3-0.3+0.1
Calgary vs Vancouver+0.1-0.3-0.2-0.2-0.3+0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Thursday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Edmonton vs Calgary+4.3+3.9+3.5-1.0-1.0-5.2
+0.3+0.2+0.2-0.1-0.1-0.3
+0.8+0.7+0.6-0.2-0.2-0.9
Pittsburgh vs Anaheim+0.5*+0.1+0.1-0.3-0.4-0.4
St. Louis vs NY Rangers-0.2-0.2-0.2*+0.1*+0.0+0.3
Arizona vs Winnipeg-0.1-0.3-0.3-0.2-0.2+0.2
Nashville vs Ottawa-0.2-0.2-0.2*-0.0*+0.0+0.3
Minnesota vs Colorado+0.1-0.2*-0.1-0.2-0.2+0.0
Dallas vs Chicago+0.1-0.2-0.2-0.1-0.2+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Edmonton finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
124-164In100.0%1004,348*
1235716-9In99.910001,260*
1225717-8In99.610001,963*
1215617-9In99.6100003,162*
1205618-8In99.4100004,719*
1195518-9In98.9100007,330*
1185519-8In98.49900010,883*
1175419-9In97.5991015,596*
1165420-8In96.0981123,161*
1155320-9In93.89821032,578*
1145321-8In91.29622045,861*
1135221-9In87.39532062,693*
1125222-8In82.29243084,404*
1115122-9In75.489650112,574*
1105022-10In67.1858700148,263*
1095023-9In57.48011900189,581*
1084923-10In46.973141210241,865*
1074924-9In35.865181610301,659*
1064824-10In25.0572220200371,052*
1054825-9In15.8472525300451,075*
1044725-10In8.7372830400538,034*
1034726-9100.0%4.12830357100634,017*
1024626-10100.01.619303910100734,167*
1014627-9100.00.5122942152000840,874*
1004527-10100.00.172643204000946,161*
994528-999.90.0422432561001,050,593*
984428-1099.90.02174030102001,148,973*
974429-999.6No11235341430001,241,577*
964329-1098.8No08293618610001,318,887*
954330-996.9No0523362211300001,384,365*
944230-1092.9No0317342316610001,433,103*
934231-985.4No02122921211131001,459,116*
924131-1073.8No01724172417720001,466,734*
914132-958.7No004181224231341001,456,181*
904032-1042.2No0213720262092001,422,723*
894033-927.2No0184142526155101,370,386*
883933-1015.7No0152820282211301,305,495*
873934-98.0No0031414262817611,225,150*
863834-103.7No0020292130241121,133,427*
853835-91.6No0010141528301741,032,430*
843735-100.6No00000292333257929,449*
833736-90.2No00001517333212827,022*
823636-100.1No00000211293819723,087*
813637-90.0No0000017244127624,261*
803537-100.0No00004184236533,217*
793538-90.0No00002133946447,109*
783438-100.0No000183555371,144*
773439-90.0No00053064303,378*
763339-10OutNo0032572244,292*
753340-9OutNo0022078193,706*
743240-10OutNo0011584152,775*
733241-9OutNo011288117,038*
723141-10OutNo0089189,747*
713142-9OutNo069467,582*
703042-10OutNo049649,875*
693043-9OutNo039736,496*
682943-10OutNo029826,315*
672944-9OutNo19918,812*
662844-10OutNo19913,042*
652845-9OutNo1999,130*
642745-10OutNo01006,297*
632746-9OutNo01004,061*
622646-10OutNo01002,750*
612647-9OutNo01001,774*
0-60OutNo1005,601*
Total:57.1%3.3%7714147777777731,054,380

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Edmonton finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupVancouverDallasMinnesotaSt. LouisAnaheimCalgaryWinnipegLos AngelesArizonaSan JoseColoradoNashvilleChicago
164820-06.6%7788888878878
1346311-8NoYes
1336514-3No333333
1326212-816.72517882517
1316213-7No1111111111111122
1306315-413.3103132010101010103
1296013-99.81071712122757757
1286014-83.312424898131010947
1276015-78.13674139515657810
1265915-86.65695101167898106
1255916-75.987778989910585
1245816-85.597789979710666
1235716-97.188869861099676
1225717-85.58776997999776
1215617-95.9866789710910776
1205618-85.99777997988667
1195518-96.19777997999676
1185519-86.59777997998776
1175419-96.49777997999667
1165420-86.29767997999777
1155320-96.39777997999776
1145321-86.29766997999776
1135221-96.29666996999676
1125222-86.29766996999666
1115122-96.29666996999666
1105022-106.3966699610109666
1095023-96.2106661010691010666
1084923-106.31066610106101010666
1074924-96.31066510106101010666
1064824-106.21155511115101110555
1054825-96.21155511115111111555
1044725-106.21155511115111111454
1034726-96.21244412124121212444
1024626-106.21244412124121212444
1014627-96.21333313133131313333
1004527-106.31333313133131313333
994528-96.31333313133131313333
984428-106.31333314133131313333
974429-96.31333313133131313333
964329-106.21333313133131313333
954330-96.11333313133131313333
944230-105.81233312123121212333
934231-95.31033310103101010333
924131-104.69333993999333
914132-93.77333773777333
904032-102.65222552555222
894033-91.73111331333111
883933-101.02111221222111
873934-90.51000110111000
863834-100.20000000000000
853835-90.10000000000000
843735-100.00000000000000
833736-90.00000000000000
823737-80.00000000000000
813637-90.00000000000000
803638-80.0000000000
793639-7No00000
783539-80.0000
773439-9No0
0-76No
Total:3.6%7.02.22.22.27.07.02.27.07.07.02.22.22.2
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday100.0*Lottery seed
Los Angeles vs San Jose-0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.0
Calgary vs Vancouver-0.0+0.1+0.0+0.0+0.1-0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Thursday100.0*Lottery seed
Edmonton vs Calgary-0.9-0.8-0.8+0.2+0.2+1.1
Pittsburgh vs Anaheim-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Arizona vs Winnipeg+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.1

What If

This isn't your lottery pick because it does not factor in ping pong balls.
It's the final seed that gets you the ping pong balls.
The top 16 seeds are wrong, just ignore them for now.

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
125-164100
1245816-81000
1235716-91000
1225717-810000
1215617-9100000
1205618-899000
1195518-999100
1185519-8981000
1175419-998110
1165420-896211
1155320-9944210
1145321-89152200
1135221-987730200
1125222-88210403000
1115122-97514605000
1105022-1067188070000
1095023-9572211090000
1084923-104726140120010
1074924-936301711510100
1064824-1025322021810020000
1054825-916312232131030000
1044725-109282352352040000
1034726-9424219239307001000
1024626-10218181220136010101000
1014627-90121415151890132020000
1004527-100791792012115410400000
994528-90451642015415720601000
984428-1002314217157131250912000
974429-9111101112129168111330000
964329-1000807815418112126601000
954330-90050341611713511119130000
944230-10003012140121110716124510000
934231-9002001110771531811109410000
924131-1000100704417116717129410000
914132-90000040121501232110131052000000
904032-10000211120711961316137310000
894033-9000100804014271418169410000
883933-100001005020813815201812520000
873934-900003104013816222013620000
863834-1000002002001381622221572000
853835-90000101000138172322157200
843735-1000000000013918242314610
833736-90000000014102026231240
823636-10000000000141223282192
813637-90000000026162728164
803537-10000000392232258
793538-90000001515313315
783438-10000029263923
773439-900015204134
763339-100002143945
753340-9000193555
743240-1000053065
733241-90032473
723141-10021880
713142-9011485
703042-10001090
693043-900793
682943-100595
672944-90397
662844-100298
652845-9298
642745-10199
632746-9199
622646-100100
612647-90100
602547-10100
592548-90100
0-58100
Total:343434343434343522333333333333