Edmonton Oilers Playoff Chances 50/50

Did not play, playoff odds up 0.1 to 43.7%
49 points   23 21-3

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Friday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup
Arizona 2 Pittsburgh 3 (ot)*-0.1
*+0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Vancouver vs Buffalo-0.7-0.9-0.5*+0.2*+0.4+0.9
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup
Edmonton vs Calgary+5.9+5.6+5.0-1.3-1.2-7.2
+0.4+0.3+0.4*-0.0*-0.1-0.5
New Jersey vs Anaheim+1.0*+0.0*+0.3-0.8-0.8-0.8
Dallas vs Winnipeg-0.7-0.9-0.6*+0.2*+0.2+0.9
Minnesota vs Columbus-0.8-0.6-0.6*+0.1*+0.2+0.9
Colorado vs Los Angeles-0.3-0.7-0.6*-0.0*-0.1+0.6
St. Louis vs Ottawa-0.6-0.6-0.5*+0.2*+0.3+0.7
Vegas vs Pittsburgh-0.3*-0.2-0.6+0.5*+0.2+0.3
Nashville vs Florida-0.2*-0.2*+0.1*-0.0*+0.1+0.2

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Edmonton finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
112-119In84.4%100160*
111303-2In38.592813*
110293-3In11.876121217*
109294-2In16.3651220249*
108284-3In10.15519242119*
107285-2In7.04522312270*
106275-3In1.934233850539*
105265-4In0.6272344501,079*
104266-3In0.11721491202,007*
103256-4In0.11119501813,375*
102257-3InNo514532635,898*
101247-4InNo210493459,124*
100248-3InNo17414110014,008*
99238-4InNo04334715020,753*
98239-3InNo02245023129,323*
97229-4100.0%No011749321039,953*
962210-399.9No001145413053,011*
952110-499.7No06384970067,549*
942111-398.9No0329531310082,561*
932011-496.4No01215222300096,781*
922012-390.8No011346318100111,403*
911912-480.3No083438163000123,959*
901913-367.2No0524382481062,354*
1812-562.5No04213826920070,400*
891813-446.2No021232331641056,221
1712-645.8No021232321751080,940*
881814-327.9No01522332611200137,742*
871714-414.1No0212273219610054,968
1613-614.1No021227322061079,878*
861715-35.8No001518312813300126,609*
851615-42.0No0029243323710115,356*
841515-50.5No00041531311530101,560*
831516-40.1No00182335257187,721*
821416-50.0No00314323414272,147*
811417-4OutNo017253923457,701*
801418-3OutNo003173833945,292*
791318-4OutNo01932421534,324*
781319-3OutNo00525462424,907*
771219-4OutNo0217463517,543*
761220-3OutNo0110434511,857*
751120-4OutNo0638557,874*
741121-3OutNo00431655,057*
731021-4OutNo0124743,065*
721022-3OutNo117821,766*
71922-4OutNo111881,015*
70923-3OutNo0891546*
69823-4OutNo0396321*
68824-3OutNo694158*
67724-4OutNo19973*
49-66OutNo100202*
Total:43.7%0.0%00310171412111097521,919,548

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Edmonton finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupCalgaryWinnipegSan JoseNashvilleVegasColoradoMinnesotaDallasAnaheimVancouverSt. LouisArizonaLos AngelesChicago
119350-05.2%265121112810178611
113312-2No5050
112302-3No5050
111303-2No152388151588
110293-3No666181861212612
109294-28.221422082681621242
108284-36.76261145887113102
107285-27.41002611956499371
106275-36.512027228243761610
105265-45.615030127323662410
104266-36.719034125322442310
103256-47.019137126212431300
102257-35.521238127111331200
101247-45.923338127101220100
100248-36.123538225000220100
99238-46.223737324000220100
98239-36.223113442200021010
97229-46.522153252010011010
2310-26.2231433520100110100
962210-36.2221930618100110100
219-56.223192961711111010
208-76.023202971810111010
952110-46.1242327715111110100
2211-26.124222771511111010
209-66.323252671511111010
942111-36.1252723812111110000
2010-56.2252723812111110000
932011-46.025302081011100000
2112-26.0262921810111100000
1910-65.925301989110000000
922012-35.626301688100000000
1911-55.62630178810000000
911912-45.12528137600000000
2013-25.025281476100000000
1811-64.924271366000000000
901913-34.02223105500000000
1812-53.921221054000000000
1711-73.9212310540000000
891813-42.8161673300000000
1914-23.21718843000000000
1712-62.615156330000000
881814-31.7101042200000000
1713-51.9101042200000000
871714-40.85521100000000
861715-30.4221000000000
851615-40.1110000000
841616-30.000000000
831516-40.000000
821517-30.00000
49-81No
Total:2.7%12.312.19.63.15.10.30.20.20.30.30.10.20.00.0
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Friday100.0*Lottery seed
Arizona 2 Pittsburgh 3 (ot)+0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Vancouver vs Buffalo+0.0+0.1+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday100.0*Lottery seed
Edmonton vs Calgary-0.9-0.8-0.7+0.2+0.2+1.1
Vegas vs Pittsburgh+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.0-0.0-0.1
New Jersey vs Anaheim-0.1*+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.0
Dallas vs Winnipeg+0.1+0.1+0.0*-0.0-0.0-0.1
Minnesota vs Columbus+0.1+0.0+0.1-0.0*-0.0-0.1
Tampa Bay vs San Jose-0.1*-0.0*+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0
St. Louis vs Ottawa+0.0+0.1*+0.1*+0.0+0.0-0.0
Colorado vs Los Angeles+0.0+0.0+0.1*+0.0*+0.0-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT12345678910111213141516171819202122232425262728293031
119350-08614
113312-25050
112302-35050
111303-238548
110293-312651212
109294-2164912202
108284-310451812312
107285-27382032832
106275-3232176335150
105265-412616733111500
104266-30171293018201110
103256-40118122323401711
102257-3559163061224030
101247-422883272268050
100248-31164277326150900
99238-40041206622251014200
98239-30020124714332018510
97229-40010728737312210100
962210-30000317335432119300
952110-401051274617326100
942111-3000301839114295100
932011-4000101021054710123100
922012-30001041924482363100
911912-400206034533874100
901913-300040222367121041000
891813-40002012032513181251000
881814-300150222919211461000
871714-4002012041323231562000
861715-3000150151524241672000
851615-400200161524251672000
841515-500000261524251782000
831516-40000026152425178200
821416-500026152526177200
811417-40002716262616610
801418-300281928261340
791318-4000310223024101
781319-30014132731195
771219-4001719332910
761220-3000211303718
751120-4016224329
741121-302154042
731021-40183655
721022-3042868
71922-4022078
70923-311385
69823-40793
68824-3991
67724-4496
66725-3100
65625-4694
49-64100
Total:000001011513314212235666554433211