Edmonton Oilers Playoff Chances 50/50

Did not play, playoff odds down 0.3 to 36.4%
2 points   1 4-0

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Wednesday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Los Angeles 5 Montreal 1 -0.4
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Thursday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Chicago vs Edmonton-5.0-1.1-1.0+3.3+4.1+4.1
-0.3*-0.0*-0.1+0.2+0.3+0.2
-0.3-0.1-0.1+0.2+0.2+0.3
Calgary vs Carolina-0.3-0.5*-0.3*-0.2*-0.1+0.5
Boston vs Vancouver+0.4*-0.0*+0.1*-0.1*-0.3-0.3
Arizona vs Dallas*+0.0*-0.3*-0.2*-0.2-0.4+0.2
Philadelphia vs Nashville+0.3*-0.1*+0.1*-0.3*-0.1-0.2

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Edmonton finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
118-156InYes100591*
1175416-7In99.1%991212*
1165316-8In96.89911344*
1155216-9In93.79712541*
1145217-8In89.89613794*
1135117-9In87.194341,175*
1125118-8In81.9924401,791*
1115018-9In74.5895602,687*
1105019-8In67.8857803,751*
1094919-9In54.9771012005,243*
1084920-8In46.0721216107,140*
1074820-9In34.1631620109,604*
1064821-8In24.35518243012,683*
1054721-9In15.445222940016,466*
1044722-8In8.034243471021,094*
1034622-9100.0%3.92526391010026,851*
1024623-8100.01.51725421420033,206*
1014523-9100.00.41023441940040,612*
1004524-8100.00.16204324610048,660*
994424-999.90.03164030910057,978*
984425-899.7No11236341430067,109*
974325-999.0No08303619610077,236*
964326-897.5No0523362310200086,992*
954226-994.0No0317332516510097,218*
944227-887.3No0211282422103000106,051*
934127-976.3No0172320261661000114,917*
924027-1061.1No0417142623124100121,021*
914028-943.8No021192227198200127,325*
903928-1027.7No0174152525156100129,784*
893929-915.1No0042921272211310132,780*
883829-107.3No0021414252718720132,080*
873830-93.0No0010281928251340130,241*
863730-101.1No000141224292171126,901*
853731-90.4No000027182928133121,257*
843631-100.1No000013122632215114,841*
833632-90.0No0000172034289106,516*
823532-100.0No000141431351597,354*
813533-90.0No0002927402387,780*
803433-10OutNo001521423277,843*
793434-9OutNo00315414168,548*
783334-10OutNo00110375159,187*
773335-9OutNo017336050,116*
763235-10OutNo004276841,708*
753236-9OutNo002227534,675*
743136-10OutNo01188128,136*
733137-9OutNo01148622,787*
723037-10OutNo0109017,830*
713038-9OutNo0089213,956*
702938-10OutNo069410,809*
692939-9OutNo04968,044*
682839-10OutNo03976,017*
672840-9OutNo2984,405*
662841-8OutNo01993,182*
652741-9OutNo1992,302*
642641-10OutNo01001,619*
632642-9OutNo1991,142*
622643-8OutNo0100756*
612543-9OutNo0100472*
602544-8OutNo0100353*
2-59OutNo100803*
Total:36.4%1.0%33810677889911122,723,516

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Edmonton finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupLos AngelesVegasSt. LouisChicagoCalgaryNashvilleColoradoMinnesotaWinnipegDallasVancouverSan JoseAnaheimArizona
156770-05.5%1096685785587116
1275911-7No5050
1266013-4No333333
1255610-11No5050
1245712-8No221111111133
1235713-7No2525131325
1225714-616.78173388178
1215614-710.31353813318181353
1205514-83.881346248621261713
1195515-76.110746107176674565
1185415-84.31010541234556910104
1175416-75.28114776585589117
1165316-86.78845116657610977
1155216-94.89106410656649988
1145217-86.2894696666611987
1135117-95.4811551066565107107
1125118-87.810855106655510987
1115018-96.091056115655510986
1105019-86.3101065115555510996
1094919-96.1111055115555410996
1084920-86.6111244114545511996
1074820-96.3121144124454410996
1064821-86.11212441244444119106
1054721-96.61313441244444111096
1044722-86.414134313444341010105
1034622-96.31515331333333111095
1024623-86.515153314333331110105
1014523-96.416163314322331110105
1004524-86.216163314322221110105
994424-96.317163314322221110105
984425-86.11716331333222111095
974325-96.1171533133333211995
964326-86.2161544123333310994
954226-95.915145412333339884
4327-75.715144412333339884
944227-85.414135410333338774
934127-94.81211549333337663
924128-83.8109437332225442
914028-92.876325222223331
904029-81.754223111112221
893929-91.032112111111110
883930-80.511101000001000
873830-90.210000000000000
863831-80.100000000000000
853731-90.000000000000000
843732-80.000000000000000
833632-90.0000000000
823633-80.00000
813634-7No00
2-80No
Total:2.3%5.85.51.71.54.51.31.31.21.21.13.63.13.01.6
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Wednesday100.0*Lottery seed
Los Angeles 5 Montreal 1 +0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Thursday100.0*Lottery seed
Chicago vs Edmonton+1.1+0.2+0.2-0.7-0.9-0.9
Calgary vs Carolina+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.1
Arizona vs Dallas+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0*+0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT12345678910111213141516171819202122232425262728293031
118-156100
1175416-7991
1165316-897211
1155216-994312
1145217-890613
1135117-987634
1125118-88210440
1115018-97414560
1105019-868176080
1094919-95522100120000
1084920-84626110150010
1074820-93429151191010
1064821-824311712220300
1054721-91530193253140000
1044722-88261952662070010
1034622-9421187251040900100
1024623-8216151022146013102000
1014523-9010111216199017204000
1004524-8067139201211941060100
994424-90341241914318830901000
984425-812101151371513501313000
974325-901701010109179115360100
964326-800505612418122167912000
954226-90030231211512513131425100
944227-80021190910981716693100
934127-9010060561231713121472000
924027-10000402312113818161372100
914028-90002011908319121715831000
903928-10000100604115614191711510000
893929-90000040209271420191362100
883829-1000000210402714212115831000
873830-900001020026142022171041000
863730-100000100026132023191141000
853731-9000000002512202420114100
843631-100000000251221242011410
833632-90000002613222519920
823532-1000000271625261761
813533-90000138192825133
803433-1000014122531216
793434-90001718323012
783334-10000312293719
773335-90017234029
763235-10004164039
753236-9002113750
743136-1000173260
733137-90042768
723037-100022176
713038-90011782
702938-1011386
692939-90990
682839-100694
672840-90496
662841-80397
652741-9298
642641-10199
632642-9199
622643-8199
612543-9199
602544-8199
2-59100
Total:1212222223233434333344444455566