Edmonton Oilers Playoff Chances 50/50

Did not play, playoff odds up 0.3 to 11.9%
28 points   13 17-2

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Friday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup
NY Rangers 4 Los Angeles 2 +0.2
New Jersey 5 Dallas 2 +0.2
Vancouver 4 San Jose 3 (ot)-0.2
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup
Minnesota vs Edmonton-3.2-0.8-0.8+2.1+2.4+2.7
-0.2-0.1-0.1+0.1+0.2+0.2
Washington vs Anaheim+0.3*+0.0+0.0-0.3-0.2-0.3
Calgary vs Nashville-0.2-0.3-0.2*-0.0*+0.0+0.3
NY Islanders vs Los Angeles+0.3*+0.0*+0.0-0.2-0.2-0.2
Philadelphia vs Dallas+0.2+0.1+0.1-0.2-0.2-0.2
Colorado vs Tampa Bay-0.2-0.1-0.1*+0.0*+0.0+0.2
St. Louis vs Winnipeg+0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1*-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Edmonton finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
114-128In100.0%1006,016*
113416-3In81.59712108*
112406-4In79.69352225*
111407-3In68.788102479*
110397-4In61.5831341,011*
109387-5In53.07814702,031*
108388-4In40.169201003,946*
107378-5In30.461261307,434*
106379-4In20.4503018113,057*
105369-5In11.53935242022,805*
1043610-4In5.72838304038,699*
1033510-5In2.419383760063,253*
1023410-6In0.8113741101098,818*
1013411-5100.0%0.26324515200152,830*
1003311-6100.00.02264622400229,995*
993312-5100.00.011944297100334,632*
983212-699.80.00133935112000473,874*
973213-599.1No0832391551000653,895*
963113-696.9No042440191030000880,061*
953114-591.3No0217371916720001,149,194*
943014-680.5No01103116211451001,468,886*
933015-563.9No06241123211130001,827,976*
922915-644.6No0317619261982002,221,868*
912916-526.7No01103122527165102,635,324*
902816-613.7No00616192924112003,049,569*
892817-56.1No00303122630196103,448,398*
882717-62.4No00101618312812203,805,992*
872718-50.8No00100211263321504,103,894*
862618-60.3No0000161934301004,323,848*
852619-50.1No0000021230371704,451,635*
842519-60.0No00001724412714,480,908*
832520-50.0No00000317413724,412,537*
822420-60.0No00000111374834,246,886*
812421-50.0No00016315753,990,132*
802321-60.0No00003246483,675,245*
792322-50.0No00021868123,302,401*
782222-6OutNo00011270172,901,598*
772223-5OutNo00869232,502,102*
762123-6OutNo00566292,096,925*
752124-5OutNo00361361,725,838*
742024-6OutNo0256421,391,382*
732025-5OutNo0149501,090,923*
721925-6OutNo004356840,032*
711926-5OutNo003763630,005*
701826-6OutNo03169462,632*
691827-5OutNo02574332,988*
681727-6OutNo02080233,371*
671728-5OutNo01684159,426*
661628-6OutNo01288106,452*
651629-5OutNo0109069,892*
641529-6OutNo079344,417*
631530-5OutNo059527,895*
621430-6OutNo39716,838*
611431-5OutNo29810,048*
601331-6OutNo2985,842*
591332-5OutNo1993,169*
581232-6OutNo1991,791*
571233-5OutNo199938*
28-56OutNo1006,906*
Total:11.9%0.0%012423469121829974,239,272

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Edmonton finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupNashvilleVegasSt. LouisLos AngelesWinnipegSan JoseMinnesotaChicagoDallasCalgaryAnaheimVancouverColoradoArizona
128500-06.9%56679810111176670
118433-4No5050
117445-1No5050
116424-4No20204020
115425-36.3661319661366613
114426-28.693369173116111111
113416-37.4569510912768876
112406-44.04658108121396765
111407-36.5466761091099867
110397-46.9597789910988550
109387-55.9486107109898777
108388-46.84861081089887660
107378-56.4596118118888766
106379-45.94106137127778865
105369-56.341151471277787640
1043610-46.341351561366688640
1033510-56.241541651466587640
1023410-66.331641851555588630
1013411-56.231841941644488620
1003311-66.431932041633398620
993312-56.332032131733298620
983212-66.232132231722298610
973213-56.242142231722298610
963113-66.152142131622188610
3012-86.062142131621187510
953114-55.872051931421177510
3013-75.771951931421176510
3215-35.772051931421177510
943014-65.081751631221165400
3115-45.281851731221166400
2913-84.981751631121165400
933015-54.17145133911144300
2914-73.97135123811144300
3116-34.07135123911144300
922915-62.9610492611033200
2814-82.659482511022200
912916-51.746251310021100
902816-60.923131200011100
892817-50.411010100000000
882717-60.201010000000000
872718-50.100000000000000
862618-60.000000000000000
852619-50.000000000000000
842519-60.0000000000000
832520-50.0000000000
822521-40.0000000
812320-70.00000
802422-4No00
792322-5No0
28-78No
Total:0.7%1.02.50.72.40.51.70.30.20.20.90.80.60.10.0
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

FridayNone
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday100.0*Lottery seed
Minnesota vs Edmonton+0.9+0.2+0.2-0.6-0.7-0.7
Calgary vs Nashville+0.0+0.0+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT12345678910111213141516171819202122232425262728293031
116-128100
115425-3946
114426-2946
113416-3811612
112406-4801352
111407-369191002
110397-462221304
109387-553251407000
108388-4402919110000
107378-5303024213000
106379-4203027317111
105369-512282952122200
1043610-4622299233304000
1033510-521625132467060000
1023410-611020172091101000100
1013411-5051319151217113112000
1003311-602818813222172304000
993312-50141631124517570601000
983212-6001121722914812010120000
973213-5008041613811191132501000
963113-6004019143102431459030000
953114-5002004121723611814272000
943014-60010290318106101651351000
933015-5000150111122913101912410000
922915-600003005111671219201141000
912916-500001002803210132221124100000
902816-60000150106516232113620000
892817-500000300031716232215720000
882717-60000010001027152223178310000
872718-50001000002614222418931000
862618-600000000261322251993100
852619-5000000000261423261992000
842519-60000000026152427187100
832520-5000000002717272715400
822420-60000000392130251020
812421-50000141327321940
802321-6000001720342891
792322-5000003133136162
782222-60000172440244
772223-500031740337
762123-6000110364112
752124-50016294618
742024-6003234925
732025-5002164933
721925-6001114642
711926-50074250
701826-60053758
691827-5033166
681727-6022573
671728-5012079
661628-6011584
651629-501288
641529-60991
631530-50694
621430-60496
611431-50397
601331-60298
591332-5199
581232-6199
571233-5199
561133-60100
28-55100
Total:000000110122111223344556789101095