St. Louis Blues Playoff Chances 50/50

Beat Chicago 5-2, playoff odds up 4.1 to 64.8%
10 points   5 2-0

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Wednesday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
St. Louis 5 Chicago 2 +4.3
+0.3
+0.9
Los Angeles 5 Montreal 1 -0.2
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Thursday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Colorado vs St. Louis-5.2-1.0-1.0+3.3+4.0+4.3
-0.3*-0.1-0.1+0.2+0.3+0.3
-1.2-0.4-0.3+1.0+1.0+1.0
Philadelphia vs Nashville+0.4*+0.2*+0.0*-0.3*-0.3-0.4
Chicago vs Edmonton*-0.1-0.4*-0.2*-0.1*-0.2+0.3
Arizona vs Dallas+0.2*-0.0*-0.1*-0.0-0.4-0.2
Boston vs Vancouver+0.3*+0.1*-0.1*-0.0*-0.3-0.2
Calgary vs Carolina-0.2*-0.1*-0.2*+0.3*-0.1+0.2

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the St. Louis finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
122-160In99.9%100865*
1215216-7In99.81000435*
1205116-8In98.91000619*
1195117-7In98.41000963*
1185017-8In98.299001,436*
1175018-7In97.099102,134*
1164918-8In95.698103,053*
1154818-9In93.997214,472*
1144819-8In90.996316,176*
1134719-9In85.7944208,390*
1124720-8In80.49263011,398*
1114620-9In73.68874014,871*
1104621-8In64.684106019,277*
1094521-9In55.579138024,567*
1084522-8In44.3721711030,668*
1074422-9In33.66421141038,446*
1064423-8In23.055251810046,233*
1054323-9In14.445292320055,159*
1044324-8In7.735322840064,384*
1034224-9In3.526343360074,100*
1024225-8100.0%1.3183438910084,886*
1014125-9100.00.41132411420094,887*
1004126-8100.00.16284319400104,288*
994026-999.90.032343246100112,796*
984027-899.80.01184029102000121,579*
973927-999.5No0133534144000127,053*
963928-898.4No092936177100130,850*
953828-996.0No06233620113100133,886*
943829-890.4No0317332017720000134,823*
933729-980.8No2122918211351000132,769*
923730-866.9No1723132219103100129,236*
913630-949.9No041882024177200124,644*
903631-833.2No02124142423145100117,712*
893531-919.6No0182920262110300109,219*
883532-810.2No0151414252617710100,138*
873432-94.9No003028192824123090,490*
863433-82.1No01014132529207180,184*
853333-90.9No01002719302612270,046*
843334-80.3No00001413273219561,021*
833234-90.1No00027213428851,743*
823235-80.1No000141532351443,078*
813135-90.0No00021027402235,312*
803136-80.0No0001621423029,399*
793036-9OutNo00316414023,236*
783037-8OutNo00211384918,324*
772937-9OutNo017345814,081*
762938-8OutNo004286810,938*
752838-9OutNo0324748,368*
742839-8OutNo0119806,058*
732739-9OutNo115854,402*
722740-8OutNo010893,212*
712640-9OutNo07932,246*
702641-8OutNo05951,545*
692541-9OutNo05951,118*
682542-8OutNo496689*
672442-9OutNo397523*
662443-8OutNo199339*
652343-9OutNo199190*
10-64OutNo100562*
Total:64.8%4.6%101017157666655432,723,516

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the St. Louis finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupLos AngelesVegasChicagoCalgaryNashvilleColoradoMinnesotaWinnipegDallasVancouverSan JoseAnaheimEdmontonArizona
160750-07.8%865667669968109
1315812-5No20202040
1305611-8NoYes
1295511-9No333333
1285613-6No9927189999
1275614-5No171744131794444
1265514-63.774111141111715747
1255313-93.0379410104127127344
1245415-67.1106667105121047676
1235315-76.35613671086994852
1225316-69.58485987111078842
1215216-76.98576891011757955
1205116-84.8669679911857684
1195117-76.056979987776776
1185017-85.676988868877765
1175018-76.2561068788986765
1164918-86.666879888977765
1154818-96.167878898877775
1144819-86.966968988876665
1134719-96.266878988877765
1124720-86.766978889877765
1114620-96.456979989876665
1104621-86.166969988967665
1094521-96.356969998877665
1084522-86.266969999966654
1074422-96.35510610999966654
1064423-86.3551061010109966554
1054323-96.255115101010101055544
1044324-86.345115111110101055544
1034224-96.244125111111111144443
1024225-86.344134121211111144433
1014125-96.144144131211111233332
1004126-86.333143131312121233332
994026-96.233153131312121233322
984027-86.233153141313121332221
973927-96.243153141413121222221
963928-86.144153141312121222221
953828-96.054143131312121222211
943829-85.755133121211111122211
933729-95.154113101099922211
923730-84.254938887722211
913630-93.243726655511110
903631-82.132514444411100
893531-91.321312222210000
883532-80.611101111100000
873432-90.300101111100000
863433-80.100000000000000
853333-90.100000000000000
843334-80.0000000000000
833234-90.00000000
823235-80.0000000
813337-5No00
803136-8No00
10-79No
Total:4.1%3.23.08.62.68.08.07.47.37.32.22.12.01.71.3
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Wednesday100.0*Lottery seed
St. Louis 5 Chicago 2 -1.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Thursday100.0*Lottery seed
Colorado vs St. Louis+1.1+0.2+0.2-0.8-0.9-1.0
Chicago vs Edmonton+0.1+0.1+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.1
Arizona vs Dallas-0.1-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.0
Philadelphia vs Nashville-0.1-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT12345678910111213141516171819202122232425262728293031
126-160100
1255313-9991
122-124100
1215216-71000
1205116-89910
1195117-79810
1185017-898100
1175018-797110
1164918-896310
1154818-994321
1144819-891531
1134719-98694020
1124720-880116030
1114620-97415704000
1104621-865191006000
1094521-956231308000
1084522-8442817010000
1074422-93430201131010
1064423-8233223216101000
1054323-91431254193120000
1044324-88272672152040000
1034224-932224102194060000
1024225-811620141813709101000
1014125-90101417131710112212000
1004126-806919819142143104000
994026-90351841816414730601000
984027-8012151141691211609120000
973927-9011209131381510111340000
963928-80080581641613312660100
953828-90050241711414710101023100
943829-80031215091212614125720000
933729-902011105816215111011620000
923730-801007024171126161311621000
913630-90004121508217101513831000
903631-802011104114512171610520000
893531-900100802081613191813621000
883532-8010051040261320211583100
873432-9000030020026132022171041000
863433-801010002512202319114100
853333-9010000002512202420114100
843334-80000000251221252011410
833234-9000002513222619920
823235-80000000261525261761
813135-9000129192826133
803136-800014122431226
793036-90001619323012
783037-8000311283720
772937-90017234028
762938-80003164039
752838-902113849
742839-80173360
732739-90042669
722740-80022277
712640-9021683
702641-811387
692541-900990
682542-8793
672442-91694
662443-8496
652343-9298
10-64100
Total:5555444534453434233333332222221