St. Louis Blues Playoff Chances 50/50

Lost to Ottawa 4-6, playoff odds down 6 to 74.4%
51 points   23 17-5

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Tuesday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
St. Louis 4 Ottawa 6 -5.1
-0.3
-0.1
Calgary 5 Florida 2 -0.7
NY Rangers 6 Dallas 7 -0.5
Vancouver 1 Nashville 0 +0.4
Anaheim 2 Tampa Bay 1 (ot)*-0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Winnipeg vs Arizona-0.5-0.5-0.4+0.1+0.1+0.6
Los Angeles vs San Jose-0.3-0.5-0.4-0.1-0.1+0.4
Edmonton vs Florida-0.3-0.3-0.3+0.0+0.0+0.4

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the St. Louis finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
125370-0In99.9%1000171,059
121-123InYes10034*
120342-1In96.5991115*
119332-2In95.71000351*
118322-3In94.110001,128*
117323-2In90.99913,206*
116313-3In86.398028,799*
115314-2In80.59802022,472*
114304-3In73.19604052,207*
113305-2In64.194060117,304*
112295-3In53.891090248,213*
111285-4In43.1871120496,061*
110286-3In32.08221700944,368*
109276-4In21.975222101,723,465*
108277-3In13.667428103,002,948*
107267-4In7.557535205,012,772*
106268-3In3.547742408,030,463*
105258-4In1.4379487012,367,369*
104259-3In0.5271052110018,351,169*
103249-4In0.1181055160026,209,072*
1022410-3In0.0111056230036,130,542*
1012310-4In0.06954301048,065,282*
1002311-3100.0%0.037503810061,818,131*
992211-4100.00.015454720076,867,723*
982111-5100.0No033854400092,441,740*
972112-4100.0No0230617000107,686,001*
962012-5100.0No012364111000121,448,659*
952013-499.8No001666152000132,740,342*
941913-599.3No0011642051000140,622,837*
931914-497.7No007592292000144,443,484*
921814-593.7No0045222165100143,895,444*
911815-485.7No02441821113000139,062,111*
901715-573.3No01351324197100130,351,292*
891716-457.3No01268232713300118,600,581*
881616-540.4No001841831226100104,690,298*
871617-425.6No001221229301320089,659,566*
861517-514.5No0071624362150074,562,114*
851518-47.5No0040316363190060,125,805*
841418-53.5No0201103138171047,059,243*
831419-41.5No010052341263035,722,978*
821319-50.6No000021539366026,299,282*
811320-40.2No000019334511118,776,268*
801220-50.1No00004255018212,992,167*
791221-40.0No000217502738,710,879*
781121-50.0No000111473565,655,422*
771122-40.0No000064143103,556,230*
761123-30.0No00033348162,162,326*
751023-40.0No00022551231,270,882*
741024-3OutNo01185031722,541*
73924-4OutNo00124740397,282*
72925-3OutNo0084250209,789*
71825-4OutNo053759106,709*
70826-3OutNo03306752,132*
69726-4OutNo02247524,560*
68727-3OutNo1188111,170*
67627-4OutNo013864,858*
66628-3OutNo09912,017*
65528-4OutNo694800*
64529-3OutNo397277*
63429-4OutNo39796*
62430-3OutNo39735*
58-61OutNo10011*
51037-0OutNo0100171,059
Total:74.4%0.1%2115391089853102,063,883,540

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the St. Louis finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupMinnesotaChicagoAnaheimSan JoseEdmontonLos AngelesCalgaryNashvilleVancouverDallasWinnipegArizonaColorado
125370-06.3%127791415161215200
123361-0No5050
122351-1No20204020
121341-2No15117194111977
120342-110.413911101081712143
119332-26.612778151718101330
118322-35.512689151315121450
117323-26.5136791415161313400
116313-36.5145791415151213400
115314-26.2146791414151214400
114304-36.2156791414151213400
113305-26.3176791314151113400
112295-36.2295691313151113400
111285-46.32115681213151112400
110286-36.23155681212141012400
109276-46.2518457111114911400
108277-36.3623457101013810300
107267-46.3828446991379300
106268-36.31133345781268300
105258-46.21338334661157200
104259-36.21643234551146200
103249-46.31847223441036200
1022410-36.32050122331025200
1012310-46.2225311222914100
1002311-36.3245511111914100
992211-46.3245611111814100
982111-56.3255721111803100
972112-46.2255622111803100
962012-56.3255533211703100
952013-46.2245354311603100
941913-56.2245065311502100
931914-46.1254686411402100
921814-55.9264286411301100
911815-45.4263686411201000
901715-54.6243075310201000
891716-43.6212354200100000
881616-52.5151732100100000
871617-41.6101121100000000
861517-50.96711000000000
851518-40.53400000000000
841519-30.21200000000000
831419-40.11100000000000
821420-30.00000000000000
811320-40.0000000000000
801321-30.0000000000
791221-40.000000000
781222-30.00000
771223-20.0000
761123-3No00
751023-4No0
51-74No
Total:4.6%19.736.44.03.02.21.00.84.20.51.90.70.00.0
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Tuesday100.0*Lottery seed
St. Louis 4 Ottawa 6 +1.0
Vancouver 1 Nashville 0 -0.1
Colorado 4 Chicago 6 +0.1
NY Rangers 6 Dallas 7 +0.1
Minnesota 3 New Jersey 4 -0.1
Calgary 5 Florida 2 +0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday100.0*Lottery seed
Winnipeg vs Arizona+0.1+0.1+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
125370-010000
121-123100
120342-19731
119332-29640
118322-39460
117323-291910
116313-3861202
115314-281170200
114304-373230400
113305-2643000600
112295-35437008000
111285-443441011100
110286-33249101520000
109276-42253201840100
108277-31453302170100
107267-475051221300200
106268-34446121200040000
105258-41356219290061000
104259-302664143710830000
103249-4018651044201160000
1022410-30114654740121100000
1012310-40636345611218001000
1002311-303251398211271010000
992211-401140301048372021000
982111-500302010754550220000
972112-4002012810248913400000
962012-50010651214514438100000
952013-40000321103718103131100000
941913-5000119027181921822100000
931914-40000060161429121362100000
921814-50000040883602131332100000
911815-40002034360182204531000000
901715-5000111320131243786210000
891716-4000100250802326111284100000
881616-50000001804018138141611510000
871617-40000120201201411181913620000
861517-50000710600151321221562000
851518-40000403000261523241661000
841418-5000201000027162525155100
831419-4010000002819282513300
821319-5000000001310233023910
811320-40000000141428321830
801220-500000001720352880
791221-40000003123138151
781121-500000162343244
771122-40000021541347
761123-300018364213
751023-400004284820
741024-3002204928
73924-4001144738
72925-30094348
71825-4053758
70826-3033166
69726-4022474
68727-311881
67627-401386
66628-30991
65528-4694
64529-3397
63429-4397
62430-3397
58-61100
51037-00100
Total:02011724216615191711233333221100