Anaheim Ducks Playoff Chances 50/50

Lost to Edmonton 2-3 (ot), playoff odds down 1.3 to 68.9%
29 points   12 8-5

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Saturday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Edmonton 3 Anaheim 2 (ot)-1.1
*-0.1
-0.3
Vancouver 3 Toronto 2 (so)*-0.3
St. Louis 2 Winnipeg 3 (ot)*-0.2
Nashville 4 New Jersey 5 (ot)*+0.2
Arizona 2 Columbus 3 (so)*-0.1
Philadelphia 3 Chicago 1 +0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Sunday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Calgary vs Anaheim-5.7-1.2-1.0+3.6+4.2+4.7
-0.4*-0.1*-0.1+0.2+0.4+0.3
-0.8-0.2-0.2+0.5+0.6+0.7
Los Angeles vs Montreal-0.4-0.4-0.4*-0.1*+0.2+0.6
+0.1*+0.0*+0.0*-0.1*-0.0-0.1
Nashville vs Philadelphia-0.3-0.4*-0.2*+0.0*+0.0+0.4
Chicago vs Winnipeg+0.2-0.3*-0.2*-0.3*-0.3*-0.1
-0.1*-0.0*-0.1*-0.0*+0.0+0.1
Edmonton vs Minnesota*-0.1-0.3*-0.2*-0.2*-0.2+0.2

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Anaheim finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
122-143InYes100310*
121438-6In97.2%97336*
120439-5In98.799176*
119429-6In98.4100129*
1184210-5In97.99900239*
1174110-6In99.5100393*
1164111-5In98.21000685*
1154011-6In95.699001,190*
1144012-5In94.199111,798*
1133912-6In90.698202,795*
1123913-5In85.997314,281*
1113813-6In80.0953106,584*
1103814-5In72.4926209,489*
1093714-6In62.98983013,588*
1083614-7In52.384125018,950*
1073615-6In40.578157025,712*
1063515-7In29.7711910033,815*
1053516-6In19.16224130044,009*
1043416-7In11.05329181055,711*
1033417-6In5.24233232069,407*
1023317-7In2.03237283084,382*
1013318-6In0.622383450099,981*
1003218-7In0.2143739910117,611*
993219-6100.0%0.08344413100134,072*
983119-7100.00.04294619300148,953*
973120-6100.0No2234525500163,551*
963020-799.9No11642319100175,304*
953021-699.6No011363713300183,526*
942921-798.5No072939177100188,871*
932922-695.7No04213820124100191,390*
922822-789.3No021435201882000188,286*
912823-677.7No19281723156100182,941*
902723-761.4No0522112322124100173,733*
892724-642.9No031561927208200161,997*
882624-726.3No019313252716510147,902*
872625-614.0No005172029241120132,434*
862525-76.5No003031326301961116,069*
852526-62.6No0101720312611299,990*
842426-71.0No0100313273219484,438*
832427-60.4No000017213527869,595*
822327-70.1No000031432351556,295*
812328-60.0No00001927402345,109*
802228-70.0No001520423335,455*
792229-6OutNo00214414327,065*
782129-7OutNo019365420,180*
772130-6OutNo006326215,076*
762030-7OutNo03257210,620*
752031-6OutNo0219797,553*
741931-7OutNo116835,206*
731932-6OutNo011883,495*
721832-7OutNo08922,250*
711833-6OutNo06941,556*
701834-5OutNo496957*
691734-6OutNo298557*
681634-7OutNo199377*
671635-6OutNo0100234*
661636-5OutNo199116*
651536-6OutNo29857*
29-64OutNo100359*
Total:68.9%2.5%8111917777665433,366,740

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Anaheim finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupChicagoSt. LouisSan JoseEdmontonLos AngelesNashvilleMinnesotaDallasVancouverWinnipegCalgaryArizonaColorado
143570-05.0%495691079710987
126477-3NoYes
124468-3No333333
123436-822.21111111111112211
122448-55.66116176611611176
121438-62.866113617831763116
120439-56.644898887118998
119429-63.1510575971010101075
1184210-53.335810887101081086
1174110-65.93678106108971097
1164111-55.1577878108791067
1154011-65.645899999107876
1144012-55.6567109988108777
1133912-66.65679989998876
1123913-56.85679988889976
1113813-66.25689987899976
1103814-55.7567101088988886
1093714-66.356791088898886
1083614-76.1568101088897876
1073615-66.3469101088898876
1063515-76.1469111178887875
1053516-66.14610111177787975
1043416-76.24611121277786875
1033417-66.44511131277796974
1023317-76.14513141366695874
1013318-66.24514151455595973
1003218-76.13415161555494973
993219-66.33417171644493972
983119-76.333181817433103972
973120-66.3331918173331021072
963020-76.2331919183321021071
953021-66.1432019183221021071
942921-76.254201817221101971
2820-96.25420181733291971
932922-66.06519171633191961
3023-46.16519171633191861
922822-75.67518151433181751
912823-65.08615131233161640
902723-73.8751210922141430
892724-62.76497622030320
882624-71.64354411020210
872625-60.92132211010110
862525-70.41111100000000
852526-60.20010000000000
842527-50.00000000000000
832427-60.000000000000
822327-7No000000000
812429-4No000000
802329-5No00
29-79No
Total:4.3%4.03.412.111.310.82.72.72.16.11.96.04.61.3
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Saturday100.0*Lottery seed
Edmonton 3 Anaheim 2 (ot)+0.3
Vancouver 3 Toronto 2 (so)+0.1
Arizona 2 Columbus 3 (so)+0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Sunday100.0*Lottery seed
Calgary vs Anaheim+1.3+0.3+0.2-0.8-1.0-1.0
Los Angeles vs Montreal+0.1+0.1+0.1+0.0-0.0-0.1
Edmonton vs Minnesota+0.1+0.1+0.1+0.0-0.0-0.1
Nashville vs Philadelphia+0.0+0.1+0.0*+0.0+0.0-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
122-143100
121438-6973
120439-5991
119429-6982
1184210-598100
1174110-6991
1164111-59820
1154011-696400
1144012-594411
1133912-691720
1123913-5861131
1113813-6801530100
1103814-5722050200
1093714-66326803000
1083614-75232110400
1073615-641381416000
1063515-730411729100
1053516-6194321311200000
1043416-7114122713410100
1033417-65372311157102000
1023317-723020161411303000
1013318-61221622121750510000
1003218-70141126823817200100
993219-60862742511485101000
983119-704325124128892020000
973120-6212101811156154041000
963020-7101601282132072531000
953021-6001107425121965831000
942921-70073224018912414421000
932922-6004111901262021857310000
922822-7020014073251194145321000
912823-610093124016221576310000
902723-700051020011023371096210000
892724-600300140601914101414941000
882624-700100930130151218181262000
872625-6000051700261320211572000
862525-7000303000261421231683000
852526-6010100026142224178200
842426-701000002715242517720
832427-60000000271726251651
822327-700000139202825122
812328-600000014122531216
802228-70001618323012
792229-600311283820
782129-7016214032
772130-6003144043
762030-700193555
752031-60052965
741931-7032473
731932-6011881
721832-7011287
711833-6011090
701834-50793
691734-6496
681634-7199
671635-6199
661636-5199
651536-6298
29-64100
Total:263826382627161611223333332222