Anaheim Ducks Playoff Chances 50/50

Did not play, playoff odds down 0.5 to 31.5%
53 points   22 17-9

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Monday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup
Minnesota 3 Ottawa 1 -0.5
Chicago 0 Tampa Bay 2 +0.4
Toronto 2 Colorado 4 -0.4
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Calgary vs Buffalo-0.9-0.8-0.7*+0.1*+0.1+1.2
-0.0-0.1*+0.0*+0.0*+0.0+0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Tuesday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup
Anaheim vs NY Rangers+5.3+5.3+4.6-1.1-1.0-6.6
+0.4+0.3+0.3*+0.0-0.1-0.4
Vancouver vs Los Angeles+1.1*+0.1*+0.0-0.9-1.1-0.8
+0.1*-0.0*+0.1*-0.1*-0.1-0.1
San Jose vs Winnipeg-0.4-0.7-0.6*-0.2*-0.0+0.7
Dallas vs Florida-0.5*-0.3-0.4*-0.1*+0.1+0.6
St. Louis vs Ottawa-0.5-0.5*-0.2*+0.2*-0.2+0.6
Montreal vs Colorado+0.5*+0.1*-0.0*-0.4-0.6-0.3
Edmonton vs Buffalo-0.2*-0.4*+0.1*+0.1*+0.0+0.2
Nashville vs Tampa Bay-0.2*-0.0*-0.0*-0.0*-0.0+0.2

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Anaheim finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
121340-0In99.3%991147
115-116InYes1002*
114303-1In85.786147*
113293-2In61.5858813*
112283-3In75.68821041*
111284-2In51.67532291*
110274-3In36.26214231177*
109275-2In23.64716361423*
108265-3In19.34316391825*
107266-2In10.331204731,527*
106256-3In4.9202253502,778*
105246-4In2.1122058904,771*
104247-3In0.57186114107,585*
103237-4In0.131560202012,261*
102238-3In0.011156294018,130*
101228-4100.0%No07513561026,061*
100229-399.9No0443411020036,132*
99219-499.3No0233451541048,466*
982110-397.6No01244618820062,115*
972010-492.8No017441814610077,247*
962011-382.8No0113914191340092,208*
951911-467.2No0631921211020106,769*
941912-348.6No032451726196100118,525*
931812-430.7No0216211262913200127,698*
921813-317.2No11016213423500132,932*
911713-48.7No06021332331210134,468*
901714-34.1No00301726392130130,948*
891614-41.7No0200317393270123,606*
881615-30.7No0100193440141112,702*
871515-40.2No00052545232100,000*
861516-30.1No00021744325085,427*
851416-40.0No00110394110070,553*
841417-30.0No0005314816056,576*
831317-4OutNo03235024043,839*
821318-3OutNo01155033032,890*
811218-4OutNo00104643124,130*
801219-3OutNo064053116,837*
791119-4OutNo033362211,291*
781120-3OutNo02256947,402*
771020-4OutNo1187474,814*
761021-3OutNo01475102,860*
75921-4OutNo0977141,686*
74922-3OutNo67420978*
73822-4OutNo046333524*
72823-3OutNo06039259*
71723-4OutNo15643127*
70724-3OutNo564466*
69624-4OutNo386229*
68524-5OutNo178312*
67525-4OutNo38638*
53-66OutNo100151*
Total:31.5%0.1%0171446913161611501,839,114

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Anaheim finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupVegasNashvilleWinnipegSan JoseColoradoCalgarySt. LouisDallasMinnesotaLos AngelesChicagoEdmontonVancouverArizona
121340-09.5%1371012891913135
116312-1NoYes
115313-0NoYes
114303-114.31414144314
113293-2No151515815238
112283-34.9121217151772215
111284-23.3177187141213312411
110274-36.226716517710616611
109275-25.4534228198671341
108265-36.84262571487616420
107266-26.25242951867417210
106256-36.07333141954515210
105246-45.79233342044416110
104247-36.110223432133317110
103237-46.512223622122217110
102238-36.1132237222222161100
101228-46.214223622211117010
100229-36.415333612211117010
218-56.2144335122111160100
99219-46.3165334121111150100
2210-26.315533522111115010
208-66.216533322011115010
982110-36.017643221911114010
209-56.317743221811113010
2211-15.917643121911114010
972010-45.819852821611112010
2111-26.2198529216111120100
199-66.019852721611112010
962011-35.019852421311110010
1910-55.11885232131119010
2112-15.0188424213111100100
951911-44.31774181101107010
2012-24.318741921011180100
1810-64.2167418191107010
941912-33.2135314171005000
1811-53.0125313171005000
2013-12.9135313170005000
931812-42.08329150003000
1913-22.0932101500030000
1711-61.77319040003000
921813-31.041160300020000
911713-40.5210302000100
901714-30.31002010000000
891614-40.1000100000000
881615-30.00000000000
871515-40.000000000
861516-30.00000
851416-40.00000
841316-50.0000
53-83No
Total:2.0%6.32.31.49.80.65.50.40.30.34.10.10.30.10.0
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Monday100.0*Lottery seed
Chicago 0 Tampa Bay 2 -0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Calgary vs Buffalo+0.1+0.1+0.1*-0.0*-0.0-0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Tuesday100.0*Lottery seed
Anaheim vs NY Rangers-0.9-0.9-0.7+0.2+0.2+1.1
San Jose vs Winnipeg+0.1+0.1+0.1+0.0-0.0-0.1
Vancouver vs Los Angeles-0.1+0.0*+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Edmonton vs Buffalo+0.0*+0.1*+0.0-0.0*+0.0-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT12345678910111213141516171819202122232425262728293031
121340-0991
115-116100
114303-18614
113293-2622388
112283-37612210
111284-25223322
110274-33626142121
109275-2242315035201
108265-3192415135311
107266-2102118139523
106256-35151934274500
105246-421016337129900
104247-3161453016150130010
103237-403962117220190120
102238-3015612152812413400
101228-4035512313252806010
100229-301317286233150100200
99219-4002032010165240150410
982110-30010112128532117180200
972010-40000511343431621406100
962011-3000291230611319113400
951911-4001501219641922110200
941912-30030013112313425196100
931812-4002061002642328143000
921813-3010380124153025102000
911713-4000150002722312182000
901714-3000300121124281982000
891614-4001000031324271993000
881615-3001000141324271992000
871515-400000151424271982000
861516-3000015152527176100
851416-40002717282715510
841417-300002821292512300
831317-4001312253121710
821318-300151730301530
811218-40028233425700
801219-30041532331510
791119-401826392420
781120-30418383460
771020-401103344111
761021-3052651171
75921-4021752263
74922-311248336
73822-418404012
72823-32304622
71723-41245323
70724-32244826
69624-434848
68524-55050
67525-45050
66526-36733
53-64100
Total:0000113221843151799766654432100