Anaheim Ducks Playoff Chances 50/50

Beat Calgary 3-2, playoff odds up 2.5 to 86.4%
33 points   14 4-5

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Friday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Pres Trophy
Edmonton 0 New Jersey 2 +0.2
Saturday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Pres Trophy
Colorado 4 Carolina 3 -0.2
San Jose 3 Arizona 4 (so)*-0.2
Ottawa 2 St. Louis 3 -0.2
Tampa Bay 2 Minnesota 1 +0.2
Calgary 5 New Jersey 4 (so)*-0.2
Edmonton 1 Chicago 7 *+0.1
Nashville 3 Florida 2 (so)*-0.1
NY Islanders 4 Pittsburgh 1 +0.1
Boston 0 Montreal 2 -0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Anaheim finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
125-151In99.7%100725*
1244311-5In99.21000355*
1234211-6In99.81000584*
1224212-5In99.610000989*
1214112-6In99.310001,677*
1204012-7In98.9100002,533*
1194013-6In98.3100003,890*
1183913-7In98.099005,582*
1173914-6In96.399118,213*
1163814-7In94.8981111,760*
1153815-6In92.2972116,565*
1143715-7In88.6963222,782*
1133716-6In84.49442030,047*
1123616-7In77.79163039,525*
1113617-6In69.08785050,861*
1103517-7In59.882117063,636*
1093518-6In49.27614100077,885*
1083418-7In37.86818130093,918*
1073419-6In26.859221810110,066*
1063319-7In17.449272210126,820*
1053320-6In9.639302830143,108*
1043220-7In4.7293333400158,731*
1033221-6In1.9203439700172,293*
1023121-7In0.61332431110183,077*
1013122-6In0.1729461620189,981*
1003022-7100.0%0.04254721300195,513*
993023-6100.00.022045275000196,374*
982923-799.9No11442339100193,127*
972924-699.7No093638133000186,760*
962824-798.9No062941176100176,226*
952825-696.7No0322412011300164,451*
942725-791.5No02153820167200149,062*
932726-681.9No110321722134100134,368*
922626-768.0No062613232092000117,445*
912627-650.5No031982126176100101,516*
902527-733.6No021341526251230085,915*
892528-619.4No0182923302071071,205*
882428-710.2No00515172928133057,844*
872429-64.6No0202102532216146,263*
862329-71.9No0101518332912236,289*
852330-60.8No0100212273519427,587*
842230-70.3No0016213628721,004*
832231-60.1No00031434361215,480*
822131-70.0No001928422011,116*
812132-6OutNo0152245277,894*
802032-7OutNo021645365,559*
792033-6OutNo011140473,854*
781933-7OutNo1639542,490*
771934-6OutNo0333641,623*
761834-7OutNo0224731,045*
751835-6OutNo22178633*
741735-7OutNo11980394*
731736-6OutNo11188275*
721636-7OutNo1288130*
711637-6OutNo59563*
701537-7OutNo29850*
691538-6OutNo39738*
33-68OutNo100324*
Total:86.4%10.0%19152517654332113,527,520

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Anaheim finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupVancouverNashvilleSt. LouisLos AngelesCalgaryMinnesotaChicagoWinnipegSan JoseDallasColoradoArizonaEdmonton
151590-04.1%4979971077121081
134486-5No5050
133476-6NoYes
132477-5NoYes
131467-6No202060
130457-7No1020101020101010
129458-67.171477777714147
128459-57.41174151941141177
127449-63.1511551261415116263
1264410-55.4458711491110108103
1254310-64.525681010881081186
1244311-55.65491087814109754
1234211-67.55569881310109953
1224212-56.765510106910891093
1214112-66.6567998910117883
1204012-76.367898979910883
1194013-66.4567989101099973
1183913-76.6666989109108873
1173914-66.0666999910109883
1163814-75.96669999999873
1153815-66.26679999999883
1143715-76.36679999999883
1133716-66.266691099998873
1123616-76.2666101089998873
1113617-66.1766101089998873
1103517-76.3766101088998783
1093518-66.28661111888108773
1083418-76.28561212888107773
1073419-66.39561212778107673
1063319-76.210551313777106673
1053320-66.312551414666106572
1043220-76.213451516666105472
1033221-66.315441617555114472
1023121-76.216441718554114372
1013122-66.318331819444123372
1003022-76.319331919333123272
993023-66.320332020333122272
982923-76.321332020332122172
972924-66.322432020222121172
962824-76.222442020322121172
952825-66.022551918322111162
942725-75.721651717332101162
932726-65.11876141433281141
922626-74.21675111122161131
912627-63.212548822140021
902527-72.18435511130010
892528-61.25223311020010
882428-70.62112200010000
872429-60.31001100000000
862329-70.10000000000000
852330-60.0000000000000
842331-50.0000000000
832130-8No0000
822131-7No0
33-81No
Total:5.4%14.54.24.114.414.44.04.03.69.43.22.86.01.9
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Friday100.0*Lottery seed
Edmonton 0 New Jersey 2 -0.0
Saturday100.0*Lottery seed
Dallas 5 Los Angeles 4 -0.1
Calgary 5 New Jersey 4 (so)+0.1
San Jose 3 Arizona 4 (so)*+0.0
Ottawa 2 St. Louis 3 +0.0
Edmonton 1 Chicago 7 -0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

This isn't your lottery pick because it does not factor in ping pong balls.
It's the final seed that gets you the ping pong balls.
The top 16 seeds are wrong, just ignore them for now.

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
126-151100
1254310-6991
1244311-59910
1234211-61000
1224212-5100000
1214112-69900
1204012-799100
1194013-698100
1183913-798100
1173914-696211
1163814-795311
1153815-692521
1143715-7897302
1133716-684104020
1123616-77813603000
1113617-66918805000
1103517-760221107000
1093518-64926140100000
1083418-73830171130000
1073419-6273221216101000
1063319-71732233202101000
1053320-61030246224203000
1043220-75252392373040000
1033221-62182013211260700000
1023121-711216171716901010100
1013122-6071119112014113210200
1003022-704619620174145203000
993023-60231621718814950500000
982923-711131121613111490811000
972924-600907111861714210330000
962824-70060371921717510750100
952825-6003013181131710812923000
942725-700201140813175151166200
932726-610090482021510121062000
922626-7000601421012518121162000
912627-6000302170821810151473100
902527-700200120401551318161041000
892528-6001008209271521191251000
882428-7000051050271622211362000
872429-6020200381723221462000
862329-7010100128172423156200
852330-601000139182523156100
842230-7000013919262313410
832231-6000014112127221030
822131-7000151325281961
812132-600027192926133
802032-7013122433226
792033-601619342910
781933-70312313816
771934-6017244027
761834-713164238
751835-602143846
741735-7293455
731736-6053064
721636-742275
711637-631186
701537-7694
691538-63592
681539-5694
33-67100
Total:1098776655544332322211111110000