Anaheim Ducks Playoff Chances 50/50

Did not play, playoff odds down 0.4 to 47.8%
19 points   8 7-3

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Saturday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Philadelphia 4 Calgary 5 (ot)-0.5
San Jose 1 Boston 3 +0.5
Los Angeles 4 Florida 0 -0.3
Washington 3 Minnesota 1 +0.3
Pittsburgh 1 Chicago 2 -0.3
Winnipeg 5 New Jersey 2 -0.2
Dallas 6 Edmonton 3 +0.2
Ottawa 2 Arizona 3 (ot)-0.1
Tampa Bay 3 NY Islanders 5 +0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Sunday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Anaheim vs Florida+4.4+4.4+3.9-0.8-0.8-5.5
+0.3+0.3+0.3-0.1-0.1-0.3
+0.4+0.4+0.3-0.1-0.1-0.4
Detroit vs Colorado+0.4*+0.1+0.1-0.2-0.3-0.3
Vegas vs Los Angeles+0.1-0.3-0.3-0.3-0.3+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Anaheim finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
125-147InYes1007,644*
124509-5In99.0%99199*
123499-6In99.5991198*
1224910-5In99.5100415*
1214810-6In99.51000763*
1204710-7In99.110001,436*
1194711-6In98.4100002,493*
1184611-7In97.8100004,362*
1174612-6In97.099107,411*
1164512-7In95.2981012,693*
1154513-6In92.7982120,317*
1144413-7In90.0963132,673*
1134414-6In85.79541050,901*
1124314-7In79.89262077,774*
1114315-6In72.788930116,595*
1104215-7In64.3841240169,272*
1094216-6In54.27816600241,463*
1084116-7In43.47120900338,126*
1074117-6In32.362251200463,147*
1064017-7In21.952301710621,866*
1053917-8In13.3423422200817,724*
1043918-7In7.03238273001,054,035*
1033818-8In3.12340325001,329,929*
1023819-7100.0%1.115393781001,647,973*
1013719-8100.00.383642121002,004,546*
1003720-7100.00.1431441830002,388,835*
993620-8100.00.02254424510002,791,386*
983621-799.90.01194129810003,206,186*
973521-899.60.0013373412300003,613,499*
963522-798.5No083037166100003,997,010*
953422-895.6No0523371911410004,339,048*
943423-789.4No03173518178200004,628,126*
933323-878.3No011130152115610004,846,305*
923324-762.6No16231122211241004,988,408*
913224-844.7No004176182519820005,038,767*
903225-727.9No021131224261651005,002,285*
893125-815.3No01717192824113004,879,234*
883126-77.4No00403122529196104,675,323*
873026-83.1No00201719302712204,401,136*
863027-71.2No00100312263220504,070,320*
852927-80.4No00000162033281013,696,821*
842928-70.1No0000031329351723,300,426*
832828-80.0No00001723382652,896,618*
822829-70.0No00000416373482,498,495*
812729-80.0No000002113342132,116,144*
802730-70.0No000162747201,761,450*
792630-80.0No000032049271,438,713*
782631-7OutNo0021448361,154,663*
772531-8OutNo001104544912,586*
762532-7OutNo00064153707,181*
752432-8OutNo0043561538,162*
742433-7OutNo0023068403,986*
732333-8OutNo012574296,710*
722334-7OutNo012079215,030*
712234-8OutNo001684151,697*
702235-7OutNo01288105,908*
692135-8OutNo0099172,502*
682136-7OutNo079348,485*
672036-8OutNo059531,916*
662037-7OutNo49620,709*
651937-8OutNo39713,136*
641938-7OutNo2988,161*
631838-8OutNo1995,102*
621839-7OutNo1992,917*
611840-6OutNo1991,776*
601740-7OutNo01001,012*
591741-6OutNo0100559*
581641-7OutNo100332*
571541-8OutNo199173*
55-56OutNo100140*
541443-7OutNo49625*
19-53OutNo1007,586*
Total:47.8%1.3%37121456788888494,298,844

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Anaheim finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupSt. LouisWinnipegLos AngelesVegasNashvilleCalgarySan JoseChicagoVancouverColoradoMinnesotaDallasEdmontonArizona
147640-06.6%67788889899941
130536-5NoYes
129537-4No333333
128516-7No20202040
127528-48.38258817258
126518-55.661711661111111166
125508-67.0127121414271679
124509-59.198104996510671051
123499-66.6578101068107761062
1224910-54.88109798777851041
1214810-65.56778788108771141
1204710-75.856888889899852
1194711-66.0568888788910851
1184611-76.057897989888851
1174612-66.457897888988851
1164512-76.356888989888851
1154513-66.457888898888851
1144413-76.356888998888851
1134414-66.356888998988851
1124314-76.256888998988851
1114315-66.356888998888851
1104215-76.356898998888851
1094216-66.356997998988851
1084116-76.356997998977751
1074117-66.256101071097977751
1064017-76.3561010710107977751
1053917-86.2561111711107966641
1043918-76.2451212611116966641
1033818-86.24513136121161055541
1023819-76.34414145121251055541
1013719-86.34416155131241044441
1003720-76.33417164141341133351
993620-86.33317173141331133351
983621-76.23318173151431122251
973521-86.24318183151421122251
963522-76.25418173151321122251
953422-86.06418173141321022241
943423-75.6751615312112911141
933323-84.975141331091811131
923324-73.97511103871611120
913224-82.854872551411120
903225-71.742541331200010
893125-81.021321220100010
883126-70.511110110100000
873127-60.200110000000000
863027-70.100000000000000
853028-60.000000000000000
842928-70.000000000000000
832828-80.000000000000000
822829-70.00000000000
812729-80.0000000000
802730-70.00000
792630-8No00
19-78No
Total:3.0%3.02.58.17.71.96.45.81.44.91.31.31.22.10.3
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Saturday100.0*Lottery seed
Philadelphia 4 Calgary 5 (ot)+0.1
San Jose 1 Boston 3 -0.1
Los Angeles 4 Florida 0 +0.1
Dallas 6 Edmonton 3 -0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Sunday100.0*Lottery seed
Anaheim vs Florida-0.9-0.9-0.8+0.2+0.2+1.2
Vegas vs Los Angeles-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.0

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT12345678910111213141516171819202122232425262728293031
125-147100
124509-5991
123499-6991
1224910-51000
1214810-69900
1204710-79910
1194711-698100
1184611-798200
1174612-697210
1164512-795310
1154513-6935201
1144413-790631
1134414-68694010
1124314-7801260200
1114315-67316903000
1104215-764201104000
1094216-6542415060000
1084116-7432719190000
1074117-632302411200000
1064017-72231273151101000
1053917-813293051821020000
1043918-77253082043030000
1033818-8319271220750500000
1023819-7113221718119080001000
1013719-80816201315131111101000
1003720-704102181618213320300000
993620-802520315206146405010000
983621-70121611119101210808110000
973521-800112071416713131102300000
963522-7008039193131731156010000
953422-80050141811117810910141000
943423-700300215071414612134820000
933323-800100010038182131110127200000
923324-7010060141811061514137210000
913224-800000300115062161117159310000
903225-700020010031125131917115200000
893125-8000100601071614202014721000
883126-7000004003026132022169310000
873026-80000020010026132023181041000
863027-70000100000025122024201141000
852927-800000000001512202520114100
842928-700000000151221252010300
832828-800000002514232619820
822829-700000000271626271651
812729-8000000139213025112
802730-7000014132731194
792630-800000272134288
782631-7001414323615
772531-800018274123
762532-700015204332
752432-80002144242
742433-700193852
732333-800063361
722334-70032869
712234-80022276
702235-7011782
692135-8011386
682136-7001090
672036-80793
662037-70595
651937-80397
641938-7397
631838-80298
621839-7199
611840-6199
601740-7199
591741-60100
581641-7100
571541-8199
55-56100
541443-7496
19-53100
Total:1234223523452334333444444444332