Anaheim Ducks Playoff Chances 50/50

Did not play, playoff odds up 0.1 to 71.2%
10 points   5 1-0

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Tuesday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Colorado 3 Florida 4 (ot)*+0.4
Boston 5 San Jose 3 +0.4
Chicago 4 Philadelphia 0 -0.3
*-0.1
Nashville 4 Arizona 3 (so)*-0.2
Winnipeg 3 Carolina 1 *-0.2
Montreal 2 Detroit 1 (ot)*+0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Anaheim vs Buffalo+3.5+3.5+3.0-0.6-0.5-4.3
+0.2+0.2+0.2-0.1*-0.0-0.3
+1.3+1.2+1.0-0.3-0.4-1.5
Edmonton vs Washington-0.3-0.4-0.3*+0.0*+0.1+0.4
+0.1*+0.0*-0.0-0.1-0.1-0.0
Ottawa vs Toronto-0.0*-0.0-0.1*-0.0*-0.0+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Anaheim finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
126-162InYes1003,701*
1255415-7In99.6%100001,191*
1245315-8In99.91001,791*
1235316-7In99.910002,960*
1225216-8In99.7100004,646*
1215217-7In99.6100007,036*
1205117-8In99.01000010,729*
1195017-9In98.81000015,685*
1185018-8In98.3991023,034*
1174918-9In97.2991032,848*
1164919-8In95.8981046,071*
1154819-9In93.89721064,134*
1144820-8In90.89621086,352*
1134720-9In86.894420115,584*
1124721-8In81.692530150,706*
1114621-9In74.989740195,068*
1104622-8In66.685960246,250*
1094522-9In56.57912800308,431*
1084523-8In45.873161100378,322*
1074423-9In34.665201510456,498*
1064424-8In23.956241910543,604*
1054324-9In14.9462724200635,134*
1044325-8In8.1363029400729,755*
1034225-9100.0%3.72732346000827,523*
1024226-8100.01.418323910100922,052*
1014126-9100.00.4123042142001,010,671*
1004127-8100.00.1727441940001,093,302*
994027-9100.00.0322432561001,163,420*
984028-899.90.021740301020001,218,170*
973928-999.60.0112353414300001,260,179*
963929-898.8No08293718610001,279,861*
953829-996.9No0523362211300001,282,640*
943830-892.6No0317342317610001,267,545*
933730-984.8No011129212211310001,232,258*
923731-872.7No01723172518720001,179,120*
913631-957.1No004171224241351001,111,657*
903531-1040.3No0212719272192001,035,438*
893532-925.5No018313252616610947,848*
883432-1014.2No004182028231130856,399*
873433-97.1No002141426291861762,080*
863333-103.2No001028203025112666,645*
853334-91.3No001014142831184576,121*
843234-100.5No00000282334267489,654*
833235-90.2No00001516333313410,149*
823236-80.1No00000211293820337,592*
813136-90.0No00016234128275,041*
803137-80.0No00004174237221,057*
793037-90.0No00002123947173,314*
783038-80.0No00183556135,737*
772938-9OutNo00053065104,203*
762939-8OutNo003257278,443*
752839-9OutNo002197958,352*
742840-8OutNo01158443,183*
732740-9OutNo00118830,930*
722741-8OutNo089122,021*
712641-9OutNo069414,952*
702642-8OutNo049610,544*
692542-9OutNo03977,049*
682543-8OutNo2984,805*
672443-9OutNo01993,209*
662444-8OutNo1991,991*
652344-9OutNo01001,327*
642345-8OutNo0100846*
632245-9OutNo0100463*
622246-8OutNo100255*
612146-9OutNo199196*
10-60OutNo1002,428*
Total:71.2%6.3%121118167766554326,180,200

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Anaheim finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupChicagoNashvilleLos AngelesDallasSan JoseVancouverCalgaryMinnesotaSt. LouisArizonaWinnipegEdmontonColorado
162760-05.9%7887688997977
136599-8No5050
1356112-316.733173317
1346012-420.020402020
1335912-5No20201020101010
1325711-8No5115211151611511
1315712-76.5499119441597497
1305612-87.111797103471091067
1295613-75.87391078988931010
1285513-85.8687987109677114
1275514-75.28669101010578777
1265414-86.256869887912886
1255415-76.057788109778887
1245315-86.26687999778796
1235316-77.276969997710777
1225216-86.46687999879787
1215217-76.66698999779787
1205117-86.76697999779787
1195017-96.26697999779787
1185018-86.16697999779786
1174918-96.56697999779787
1164919-86.26697999779786
1154819-96.16697999779786
1144820-86.36697999779786
1134720-96.26697999779786
1124721-86.366979910779786
1114621-96.3669710910779786
1104622-86.366961010107710686
1094522-96.2661061010106610686
1084523-86.4561061010106610686
1074423-96.3551161110106610685
1064424-86.3551161111116610585
1054324-96.3551251211115511585
1044325-86.3441351212125511584
1034225-96.2441341312124412484
1024226-86.3441441313134412493
1014126-96.3331541413133312393
1004127-86.2331631514133313393
994027-96.3331631514143313292
984028-86.3331631514143313292
973928-96.2331631514143313292
963929-86.2441631514133313282
953829-96.1441631413133312282
943830-85.8551541312123311271
933730-95.3551341211103310261
923731-84.6551141098328251
913631-93.65493876226141
903632-82.53362554214121
893532-91.62241333113110
883533-80.91121222111010
873433-90.41110111001000
863434-80.20000000000000
853334-90.10000000000000
843335-80.00000000000000
833235-90.00000000000000
823236-80.0000000000000
813237-70.00000000000
803036-100.0000000
793037-9No0000
783139-6No00
10-77No
Total:4.5%3.43.410.33.09.69.08.82.72.78.32.25.82.0
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Tuesday100.0*Lottery seed
Boston 5 San Jose 3 -0.1
Colorado 3 Florida 4 (ot)-0.1
Montreal 2 Detroit 1 (ot)*-0.0
Calgary 1 Tampa Bay 2 (ot)*+0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday100.0*Lottery seed
Anaheim vs Buffalo-0.8-0.8-0.7+0.1+0.1+1.0
Edmonton vs Washington+0.0+0.1+0.1-0.0-0.0-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

This isn't your lottery pick because it does not factor in ping pong balls.
It's the final seed that gets you the ping pong balls.
The top 16 seeds are wrong, just ignore them for now.

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
126-162100
1255415-7100000
1245315-81000
1235316-710000
1225216-8100000
1215217-7100000
1205117-899100
1195017-999100
1185018-898110
1174918-997210
1164919-896310
1154819-9944210
1144820-891520100
1134720-987840200
1124721-88211503000
1114621-97514704000
1104622-86718906000
1094522-95723120800000
1084523-846271501100000
1074423-935301911410100
1064424-82432222171001000
1054324-915312442031020000
1044325-882824622520400000
1034225-94232210229406000000
1024226-811719131913609101000
1014126-901114161418101122002000
1004127-80791882013214410400000
994027-90351742015415730601000
984028-8022151161581312509120000
973928-901111011121381791113300000
963929-800806716418122126601000
953829-90050341611613610119230000
943830-800301114011111171612561000
933730-900100100771631811119410000
923731-800100703317116718129410000
913631-900000401115011321101311621000
903531-10000200110711951216148310000
893532-90001007030132714181711510000
883432-10000004010802715201913620000
873433-900002104012715212115720000
863333-100000102001271522221682000
853334-9000101000138162323167200
843234-1000000000013817242415610
833235-900000001391926241341
823236-80000000141122282292
813136-900000016152729174
803137-800000292132269
793037-90000001415303416
783038-8000029253924
772938-90015194135
762939-8002133945
752839-900183556
742840-80052965
732740-90032373
722741-80021880
712641-9011486
702642-8001089
692542-90793
682543-800595
672443-90397
662444-80397
652344-9199
642345-8298
632245-90100
622246-8100
612146-9199
10-60100
Total:665555454534343422222222222221