Anaheim Ducks Playoff Chances 50/50

Beat Arizona 2-1, playoff odds up 3.7 to 84.1%
31 points   13 4-5

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Friday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Pres Trophy
Edmonton 0 New Jersey 2 +0.2
Saturday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Pres Trophy
Colorado 4 Carolina 3 -0.2
San Jose 3 Arizona 4 (so)*-0.2
Ottawa 2 St. Louis 3 -0.2
Tampa Bay 2 Minnesota 1 +0.2
Calgary 5 New Jersey 4 (so)*-0.2
Edmonton 1 Chicago 7 *+0.1
Nashville 3 Florida 2 (so)*-0.1
NY Islanders 4 Pittsburgh 1 +0.1
Boston 0 Montreal 2 -0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Anaheim finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
125-151In99.9%1005,862*
1244411-5In99.810002,475*
1234311-6In99.810004,210*
1224312-5In99.7100006,964*
1214212-6In99.61000011,386*
1204112-7In99.31000018,064*
1194113-6In98.91000028,091*
1184013-7In98.2990042,521*
1174014-6In97.1991063,338*
1163914-7In95.5981191,975*
1153915-6In93.197210130,029*
1143815-7In89.996210180,276*
1133816-6In85.394420243,690*
1123716-7In79.492530323,879*
1113717-6In71.8887500420,512*
1103617-7In62.5831070531,957*
1093618-6In51.877131000661,503*
1083518-7In40.670171300806,844*
1073519-6In29.361211710964,755*
1063419-7In19.15225222001,129,169*
1053420-6In11.14228273001,292,521*
1043320-7In5.53231335001,453,134*
1033321-6100.0%2.322323870001,607,128*
1023221-7100.00.7153142111001,736,439*
1013222-6100.00.292845162001,841,313*
1003122-7100.00.042446223001,914,730*
993022-8100.00.0219452860001,953,618*
983023-799.90.01144134101001,955,994*
972923-899.8No0935381430001,920,287*
962924-799.1No06284119610001,852,000*
952824-897.2No032140221120001,754,379*
942825-792.8No0214372317610001,632,039*
932725-884.1No0193121231231001,482,806*
922726-770.6No0524152519820001,326,769*
912626-853.7No03181023261551001,165,457*
902627-736.2No01125182823102001,002,939*
892527-821.4No017211252918610848,529*
882528-711.1No004161930261220705,745*
872428-85.1No002031226311961575,151*
862429-72.1No01016203227112456,424*
852329-80.8No00003132933183358,826*
842330-70.3No0000172236267276,400*
832331-60.1No000416343412208,852*
822231-70.0No000210304019155,459*
812232-60.0No00016234327113,064*
802132-70.0No000317433680,066*
792133-6OutNo00112414556,122*
782033-7OutNo017375538,538*
772034-6OutNo05316425,722*
761934-7OutNo003257217,019*
751935-6OutNo01207910,958*
741835-7OutNo0115847,045*
731836-6OutNo012874,391*
721736-7OutNo08922,633*
711737-6OutNo7931,590*
701637-7OutNo595895*
691638-6OutNo397505*
681538-7OutNo199286*
671438-8OutNo298181*
661540-5OutNo19992*
31-65OutNo1003,034*
Total:84.1%8.7%171323187554321135,506,580

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Anaheim finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupVancouverNashvilleSt. LouisCalgaryLos AngelesChicagoMinnesotaWinnipegSan JoseDallasArizonaColoradoEdmonton
151600-06.6%675879101099883
134496-5No5050
133497-4No333333
132476-716.781725817178
131488-410.010551551010201010
130478-510.448864681310101010
129468-612.510736911101099782
128469-56.66651013581198676
127459-63.275410128101169755
1264510-57.387711798997874
1254410-66.6766810910899774
1244411-56.466589799109784
1234311-65.466699999109874
1224312-55.866689899109884
1214212-66.476699889108874
1204112-76.576599899108874
1194113-66.076699989108874
1184013-76.376699889108874
1174014-66.276699989108874
1163914-76.376699888108874
1153915-66.376699889108874
1143815-76.276699889108874
1133816-66.2766910888108874
1123716-76.28661010888108874
1113717-66.38661010888108874
1103617-76.28651011888107864
1093618-66.29551111888107864
1083518-76.210551212777107864
1073519-66.311551312777106864
1063419-76.312551413666106853
1053420-66.213441514666105853
1043320-76.215441615555115743
1033321-66.316441716555114743
1023221-76.318331817444113733
1013222-66.219331918443113733
1003122-76.320332019333122723
993022-86.321332119332122723
983023-76.321332119322122713
972923-86.222442119322121713
962924-76.221542019332111713
952824-86.121651918332101612
942825-75.82066181633291512
932725-85.31877151433181512
922726-74.41577121133161311
912727-63.412659822141201
902627-72.28446511130101
892628-61.45224311020100
882528-70.72112200010000
872529-60.31111100000000
862429-70.10000000000000
852430-60.10000000000000
842330-70.00000000000000
832331-60.0000000000000
822231-70.000000000
812333-4No000
802233-5No0
31-79No
Total:5.3%14.94.14.114.713.83.63.63.19.02.65.92.32.4
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Friday100.0*Lottery seed
Edmonton 0 New Jersey 2 -0.0
Saturday100.0*Lottery seed
Dallas 5 Los Angeles 4 -0.1
Calgary 5 New Jersey 4 (so)+0.1
San Jose 3 Arizona 4 (so)*+0.0
Ottawa 2 St. Louis 3 +0.0
Edmonton 1 Chicago 7 -0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

This isn't your lottery pick because it does not factor in ping pong balls.
It's the final seed that gets you the ping pong balls.
The top 16 seeds are wrong, just ignore them for now.

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
128-151100
127459-61000
1264510-51000
1254410-61000
1244411-510000
1234311-610000
1224312-5100000
1214212-6100000
1204112-799000
1194113-699100
1184013-798100
1174014-697210
1163914-795311
1153915-69342010
1143815-790620100
1133816-6859402000
1123716-77912503000
1113717-672167050000
1103617-763211007000
1093618-6522513090000
1083518-7412916113000000
1073519-6293219116101000
1063419-719332231921020000
1053420-611312352241030000
1043320-762623823730400000
1033321-622020122211507000000
1023221-7114161518168010101000
1013222-608111712201211321020000
1003122-7046186211531552030000
993022-802316219176151040600000
983023-7011121141511111570811000
972923-800908111571911111430000
962924-700604617319154118511000
952824-800302316115159913922000
942825-70021113091215518116520000
932725-800100905719218101310510000
922726-700005023191156201210520000
912626-800031116010221914127310000
902627-7000100110501751217159410000
892527-8001007020112614201811510000
882528-70000410602716222113620000
872428-80000200300281623221572000
862429-7000101001381624231572000
852329-800000000138172423156100
842330-7000000013918262314510
832331-60000014112127221130
822231-700000151324282071
812232-60000027182927143
802132-700013112533226
792133-60001618333112
782033-700311293719
772034-60017234128
761934-7004174039
751935-602113850
741835-7173459
731836-6042669
721736-7022276
711737-6011683
701637-711486
691638-61991
681538-7694
671438-8595
661540-5793
64-65100
631341-6991
31-62100
Total:987667555544342322222211111000