Montreal Canadiens Playoff Chances 50/50

Did not play, playoff odds up 0.001 to 95.6%
63 points   28 13-7

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Sunday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Pres Trophy
Pittsburgh vs Boston+0.2*+0.1*+0.1-0.2-0.2-0.2
-0.1-0.2*-0.1*+0.0*+0.0+0.2
Ottawa vs Columbus-0.1*-0.1*-0.1*+0.0*-0.1+0.2
+0.3*-0.0*+0.0-0.3*-0.1-0.2
Minnesota vs Nashville-0.2-0.2-0.2+0.2*+0.0+0.3
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Monday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Pres Trophy
Toronto vs Calgary-0.2-0.2*-0.1+0.2*+0.0+0.2
Arizona vs Florida+0.2*-0.0*+0.1*-0.2-0.2-0.1
Washington vs Carolina+0.1*-0.1*-0.0*-0.2*+0.0-0.1
-0.3-0.3*-0.1*-0.0*+0.1+0.3
Colorado vs San Jose+0.1*-0.1*+0.0*+0.0*-0.0-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Montreal finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
123-131InYes100181*
122294-1In95.0%98340*
121284-2InYes10096*
120274-3In98.6991213*
119275-2In95.8973430*
118265-3In92.4946865*
117266-2In86.790101,635*
116256-3In80.5851502,862*
115246-4In71.778224,899*
114247-3In62.1712908,102*
113237-4In52.06238012,653*
112238-3In41.05248018,995*
111228-4In30.24357027,194*
110229-3In20.63267137,980*
109219-4In12.623751050,646*
1082110-3In6.716822065,309*
1072010-4In3.310873080,347*
1062011-3In1.35895096,211*
1051911-4In0.439080110,705*
1041912-3In0.1187110123,414*
1031812-4In0.00831610133,651*
1021813-3In0.0078201072,111*
1712-5In0.00762210066,849*
1011713-4In0.007028200140,764*
1001714-3100.0%No06234400070,016*
1613-5100.0No06036400066,527*
991614-4100.0No051417000128,571*
981615-3100.0No040461200060,441*
1514-599.9No40461200057,598*
971515-499.8No031491911000104,675*
961516-399.0No2148271310089,065*
951416-496.7No1342341531073,573*
941417-391.1No8344018720058,963*
931317-480.4No425411913610045,944*
921318-364.8No2153809181241034,374*
911218-446.0No183007202110300024,917*
901219-327.9No042004162620820017,477*
891119-415.6No02120110242717610011,746*
881120-37.1No01605172825134107,658*
871020-42.9No0302920302311204,825*
861021-31.3No0101314252920613,056*
85921-40.3No00171730281331,733*
84922-30.1No000292435236990*
83822-4OutNo1315323514560*
82823-3OutNo029244222267*
81723-4OutNo3183940129*
80724-3OutNo37345673*
79725-2OutNo3306733*
78625-3OutNo89213*
63-77OutNo100164*
Total:95.6%3.1%55723901111000001,919,540

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Montreal finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupWashingtonColumbusPittsburghNY RangersOttawaTorontoBostonCarolinaPhiladelphiaNY IslandersBuffaloDetroitFloridaNew JerseyTampa Bay
131340-06.3%11110635192118131112
125302-250.05050
124303-1No5050
123293-2No28666171111611
122283-37.5101531032015833103
121284-22.13138168131518432132
120274-34.71041114423131363493
119275-24.91251234620121433592
118265-36.722515345171514333101
117266-25.71251535417151334392
116256-36.52261635416161233382
115246-46.62361934415141232382
114247-36.12482133415131232282
113237-46.43492333313121132271
112238-36.345102723312111022261
111228-46.14612292231110922261
110229-36.3571332222109822151
109219-46.258153422288711141
1082110-36.368163612277611141
1072010-46.369173712276611131
1062011-36.279173723266511131
1051911-46.379173624265511131
1041912-36.279173535355521121
1811-56.279173535255521121
1031812-46.268163347355422221
1913-26.268163347355422221
1021813-36.268153158444422221
1712-56.268153059454432221
1011713-46.2571428611544433322
1814-26.3571427711544433322
1001714-36.2561225813643343322
1613-56.2561224914643343322
991614-46.14510211116733354412
1715-26.44511201117733354413
981615-36.2348161319922265513
971515-46.33371216211022276614
961516-36.2335818231111186614
951416-45.9334618231111187704
941417-35.9433317221100087704
931317-45.044221520900076604
921318-34.144211216700055503
911218-42.93211912500044302
901219-31.9221057302222
891119-40.811003521111
881120-30.400002210101
871020-40.1001100000
861021-30.100000000
85921-40.100
84922-3No0
63-83No
Total:6.0%4.86.211.623.57.611.15.34.23.93.73.63.13.12.02.0
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Sunday100.0*Lottery seed
Ottawa vs Columbus+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.0-0.0-0.1
Pittsburgh vs Boston-0.0-0.0*-0.0+0.0+0.1+0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Monday100.0*Lottery seed
Toronto vs Calgary+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.0-0.0-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
123-131100
122294-19533
121284-2100
120274-39901
119275-29613
118265-39226
117266-287410
116256-3804150
115246-472622
114247-36292900
113237-452103800
112238-341114700
111228-4301357000
110229-32112661100
109219-413117421000
1082110-3797941010
1072010-43681720200
1062011-3147811203000
1051911-4027218205000
1041912-3016225219000
1031812-4005033111400000
1021813-3003840111810010
1712-50036401120100100
1011713-40025450125210200
1001714-301546002951030000
991614-4084300301110700000
981615-30437002818101200000
971515-4012900222700171101000
961516-302101434002421030100
951416-40130835002861050310
941417-30833100281210807200
931317-441240022190091126100
921318-320150142400721713510
911218-410872300431821113100
901219-3042180012122422114100
891119-40211200161824211141000
881120-301060029192521125100
871020-40030029182422146100
861021-3010038172422167200
85921-40013819242415620
84922-301371826251461
83822-400181733231520
82823-313822332581
81723-43123230202
80724-381630387
79725-215274512
78625-38235415
77626-2100
75-76100
63034-01891
Total:323324101390062001011100000000000