Toronto Maple Leafs Playoff Chances 50/50

Beat Detroit 6-3, playoff odds up 4.6 to 70.9%
12 points   6 1-0

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Wednesday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Toronto 6 Detroit 3 +4.2
+0.2
+1.3
Los Angeles 5 Montreal 1 +0.4
-0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Thursday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Ottawa vs New Jersey-0.2-0.5*-0.2*+0.1*-0.0+0.3
Boston vs Vancouver-0.3*-0.2*-0.2*+0.2*+0.0+0.3
Calgary vs Carolina+0.2*+0.0*+0.3*-0.1*-0.0-0.2
Philadelphia vs Nashville-0.2*-0.2*-0.0*-0.0*+0.3+0.2

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Toronto finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
124-162InYes100919*
1235115-9In99.8%1000406*
1225116-8In99.4100690*
1215016-9In99.0100001,030*
1205017-8In99.4100001,460*
1195018-7In98.999002,239*
1184918-8In98.299003,067*
1174818-9In97.499104,306*
1164819-8In95.998116,164*
1154719-9In94.297218,364*
1144720-8In90.6963211,284*
1134620-9In87.2944214,995*
1124621-8In81.99163019,288*
1114521-9In75.18784024,756*
1104522-8In66.783116031,016*
1094422-9In57.077149038,365*
1084423-8In46.37018120046,273*
1074323-9In35.46122151054,999*
1064324-8In24.65227201064,484*
1054224-9In15.742302430074,346*
1044225-8In8.633333040084,635*
1034125-9100.0%4.1233535700094,826*
1024126-8In1.61535391010105,188*
1014026-9100.00.59334214200113,766*
1004027-8100.00.152843204000120,614*
993927-999.90.022342256100126,332*
983928-899.80.01174030102000131,411*
973828-999.2No0123534144100134,143*
963829-897.6No0828361782000134,572*
953729-993.9No052235191351000133,496*
943730-886.2No0315321818103100129,394*
933630-974.0No1102714211672000124,426*
923631-857.7No1621102021146100117,233*
913531-939.6No03155152321114100109,219*
903532-824.0No0210210202519930099,592*
893432-912.6No0161514242516610090,309*
883433-86.1No0030281927231241080,466*
873333-92.6No0020141223272082070,090*
863334-81.0No0010027182726154160,448*
853234-90.4No000013112329229151,822*
843235-80.1No00001617292915343,142*
833135-90.0No000311243323635,207*
823136-80.0No000161833311128,866*
813036-90.0No00031230371723,265*
803037-8OutNo001724412618,250*
792937-9OutNo01419423514,296*
782938-8OutNo00213404410,877*
772838-9OutNo01935558,225*
762839-8OutNo0632626,111*
752739-9OutNo0325714,273*
742740-8OutNo0221773,267*
732640-9OutNo117812,280*
722641-8OutNo113871,628*
712541-9OutNo011891,045*
702542-8OutNo0793730*
692442-9OutNo496479*
682342-10OutNo397325*
672343-9OutNo397221*
662344-8OutNo397142*
652244-9OutNo29897*
12-64OutNo100357*
Total:70.9%7.7%1312191565554443222,723,516

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Toronto finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupTampa BayColumbusNew JerseyPhiladelphiaOttawaPittsburghCarolinaDetroitWashingtonBostonFloridaNY IslandersBuffaloMontrealNY Rangers
162750-05.0%547699769667766
1376111-3NoYes
1355810-7NoYes
1335711-7No333333
1325813-4No333333
131539-13No40202020
1305613-69.1999369999
1295513-711.812661212666661266
1285514-66.16213931293129633
1275414-73.4871487721577585
1265415-68.0115109539797114424
1255214-99.2675993979775686
1245215-86.6476895768949655
1235115-94.9567966765788874
1225116-86.8967776885786665
1215016-97.2776787667877667
1205017-86.0767887666777755
1195018-75.9666777778876655
1184918-85.6666788877776665
1174818-96.0777786776776665
1164819-86.4767786677777666
1154719-96.0766677777777666
1144720-86.5777687777777655
1134620-96.0766787787776655
1124621-86.1866787787776655
1114521-96.4866786687776665
1104522-86.2866686686776665
1094422-96.1866697686786665
1084423-86.2966696686886665
1074323-96.2966696696885664
1064324-86.310555106695885664
1054224-96.2115551055105895664
1044225-86.2125551155105995763
1034125-96.3134441254114994763
1024126-86.214444124411410104763
1014026-96.114444134412310103762
1004027-86.215333143313310103862
993927-96.316333143313311112872
983928-86.316333143313211112872
973828-96.316333143213211112861
963829-86.216443143213210102861
953729-95.816443133312210102761
943730-85.4144431233112992651
933630-94.712443103292771541
923631-83.6933282271551431
913531-92.4722251151441320
903532-81.5421131130220210
893432-90.8211020010110110
883433-80.4100010010110000
873333-90.2000000000000000
863334-80.1000000000000000
853335-70.0000000000000
843235-80.000000000000
833034-110.0000000
823035-10No000
813137-7No0
12-80No
Total:4.4%10.03.23.12.88.82.82.78.12.46.86.82.35.04.31.7
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Wednesday100.0*Lottery seed
Toronto 6 Detroit 3 -0.9
Los Angeles 5 Montreal 1 -0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Thursday100.0*Lottery seed
Ottawa vs New Jersey+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.0+0.0-0.1
Columbus vs Tampa Bay-0.1-0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Boston vs Vancouver+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT12345678910111213141516171819202122232425262728293031
124-162100
1235115-91000
1225116-8991
1215016-999100
1205017-899000
1195018-799000
1184918-898100
1174818-997210
1164819-896211
1154719-994321
1144720-891532
1134620-987642
1124621-882960300
1114521-9751280400
1104522-867161106000
1094422-957201408000
1084423-84623180120000
1074323-93526211151010
1064324-825272521811100
1054224-916272732121030000
1044225-89242862343040000
1034125-9419269237506000000
1024126-82142212201090900100
1014026-9091716151412012112000
1004027-80511179161721532040000
993927-9026174151941554060100
983928-801314112197139809120000
973828-9011107151291213112240100
963829-8007041015413172134802000
953729-90050251511118611812151000
943730-8003121307151071114493100
933630-90101903101431113815831000
923631-80100601515198121615831000
913531-900030213053121319168310000
903532-80002019021971521181041000
893432-90010061052816221912620000
883433-8000030020381621211473100
873333-90000201012715212217931000
863334-800010000026142123181041000
853234-900000002613212319104100
843235-8000000261321251910310
833135-9000002614222518920
823136-80000271625261761
813036-90000139202825123
803037-80014132532206
792937-9001719332911
782938-8001313293718
772838-90017234028
762839-8004183939
752739-901113849
742740-80183358
732640-9052867
722641-8032275
712541-911880
702542-8011286
692442-90693
682342-100792
672343-9694
662344-8694
652244-9298
642144-10298
632044-11397
12-62100
Total:8675545443533232333322222221111