Sports Club Stats, which I have open
in like seven browser tabs always
-Katie Baker

Toronto Maple Leafs Playoff Chances 50/50

Beat Buffalo 4-3, playoff odds up 6.6 to 67.5%
50 points   21 13-8

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Tuesday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Toronto 4 Buffalo 3 +5.8
+0.3
+0.1
Calgary 5 Florida 2 +0.8
+0.1
St. Louis 4 Ottawa 6 -0.7
Columbus 4 Carolina 1 +0.4
NY Rangers 6 Dallas 7 +0.2
Anaheim 2 Tampa Bay 1 (ot)*+0.2
*-0.0
Minnesota 3 New Jersey 4 -0.2
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Edmonton vs Florida+0.7+0.2+0.1-0.5-0.6-0.6
Detroit vs Boston+0.5-0.2-0.2-0.5-0.7-0.3
Montreal vs Pittsburgh-0.1-0.2-0.1-0.1-0.1+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Toronto finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
123-130InYes100171,335*
122353-2In99.7%1000686*
121343-3In98.59911,748*
120344-2In97.99824,831*
119334-3In96.6973012,084*
118324-4In94.6964028,488*
117325-3In91.4936063,247*
116315-4In86.890100133,777*
115316-3In80.785151269,674*
114306-4In73.3792010518,452*
113307-3In63.6712720956,810*
112297-4In52.96235301,695,539*
111298-3In41.55244502,878,474*
110288-4In30.24152704,705,717*
109289-3In20.231601007,418,726*
108279-4In12.12165130011,269,583*
107269-5In6.41468180016,535,855*
1062610-4In2.9868230023,450,248*
1052510-5In1.14653010032,170,967*
1042511-4In0.32603620042,704,076*
1032411-5100.0%0.115343300054,949,188*
1022412-4100.00.004549500068,509,069*
1012312-5100.00.0036559000082,832,432*
1002313-4100.00.00285814000097,189,445*
992213-5100.00.0020582010000110,698,985*
982214-499.8No0145528210000122,418,129*
972114-599.0No094936331000131,514,932*
962115-496.9No0540423630000137,271,727*
952015-591.7No03304649720000139,281,945*
942016-481.7No1214531212510000137,374,516*
931916-566.6No01339212191130000131,697,915*
921917-448.5No0731192219820000122,802,743*
911817-531.0No03220620261661000111,354,239*
901818-417.3No01130314272513410098,214,081*
891718-58.5No0170172129221020084,204,171*
881719-43.7No0030031326291861070,228,147*
871619-51.4No0010016182927144056,967,897*
861620-40.5No0000002102331239144,925,203*
851520-50.1No00001415293117434,446,124*
841521-40.0No0000028223427825,669,100*
831421-50.0No00000031432351518,606,006*
821422-40.0No00001825412513,086,108*
811322-50.0No0000031742378,956,182*
801323-4OutNo00011138505,945,475*
791223-5OutNo000632623,831,007*
781224-4OutNo00325722,397,594*
771124-5OutNo00118811,454,254*
761125-4OutNo011287854,545*
751025-5OutNo00892487,369*
741026-4OutNo0595267,655*
73926-5OutNo0397143,520*
72927-4OutNo029873,551*
71827-5OutNo19936,800*
70828-4OutNo19917,513*
69829-3OutNo01008,248*
68729-4OutNo01003,700*
67730-3OutNo01001,619*
50-66OutNo100172,089*
Total:67.5%0.5%113272214676543212,063,883,540

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Toronto finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupColumbusWashingtonMontrealPittsburghNY RangersOttawaCarolinaBostonPhiladelphiaFloridaTampa BayDetroitNY IslandersNew JerseyBuffalo
130400-06.3%211514619714542792
127381-1No5050
125372-114.3714147217217
124362-27.4161242491837124
123352-35.22126135201092528113
122353-27.1221514720713433982
121343-36.02225135187136437102
120344-26.3222613619614543782
119334-36.5222614718714543782
118324-46.2222615618714543782
117325-36.2222715618713543782
116315-46.2222716617713543782
115316-36.3322717617613443772
114306-46.2332818617612443672
113307-36.3332919616612432672
112297-46.33321021615611432662
111298-36.24421122614610432562
110288-46.34421223713510432552
109289-36.2452122481259332452
108279-46.2552132491168332442
107269-56.25521324111067432332
1062610-46.3553132313976432332
1052510-56.2554122116876442332
1042511-46.2455111918785543222
1032411-56.24461017216104543222
1022412-46.3348814245114653223
1012312-56.2239712274123664113
1002313-46.3221159293132764113
992213-56.2221347312142874113
982214-46.2221535332141875114
972114-56.2221623331151875004
2215-36.2221623331151875004
962115-46.1321722321140875004
2014-66.0331722321140875004
952015-55.7431621290130775004
942016-45.1541421250110664003
931916-54.254112120090553003
921917-43.04381015060332002
911817-51.93251010040221001
901818-41.1113006020111001
891718-50.5001003010110000
881719-40.2001002010000000
871619-50.1000001000000000
861620-40.000000000000000
851621-30.0000000000000
841521-40.000000000000
831421-50.000000000
821422-40.00000000
811423-3No00
50-80No
Total:4.2%2.62.48.93.04.519.51.78.61.24.74.22.90.50.52.3
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Tuesday100.0*Lottery seed
Toronto 4 Buffalo 3 -1.0
St. Louis 4 Ottawa 6 +0.1
Calgary 5 Florida 2 -0.1
Minnesota 3 New Jersey 4 +0.0
Anaheim 2 Tampa Bay 1 (ot)-0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday100.0*Lottery seed
Montreal vs Pittsburgh+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.0-0.0-0.1
Detroit vs Boston-0.1+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.0
Edmonton vs Florida-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
123-130100
122353-21000
121343-39901
120344-29802
119334-397130
118324-495140
117325-3912600
116315-48731000
115316-381415010
114306-4736200100
113307-36472702000
112297-45393503000
111298-341104404000
110288-4301152060100
109289-3201159180200
108279-412964110030000
107269-567653110600000
1062610-4356351111100000
1052510-51357811118010000
1042511-40248129226010000
1032411-5013715623502010000
1022412-40027184243130200000
1012312-500171922492405000000
1002313-4001018115064010000000
992213-500516014611311601000000
982214-402120037172125020100000
972114-50180026231133130301000
962115-400500152601384306030000
952015-500300724003783190720000
942016-40102180030142111112510000
931916-500011200202011102181130000
921917-4000700102101732120920000
911817-500030041700331725187200000
901818-40010112001292326177200000
891718-500100700014132425167200000
881719-400000300001515242517820000
871619-50000100001614232518931000
861620-40000000001614232518930000
851520-500000000151423261992000
841521-40000000016152527187100
831421-500000002617272816400
821422-4000000282031261010
811322-50000131227342030
801323-40001519363170
791223-50002113141141
781224-4000152446222
771124-500021646315
761125-4001942399
751025-5005354614
741026-4002285020
73926-501215127
72927-401154935
71827-50104644
70828-4074053
69829-3043660
68729-432969
67730-312375
66630-412080
65631-301485
64531-411485
63532-31585
62432-4892
61433-32575
58335-2100
50040-00100
Total:00761016910146103156543222111000