Toronto Maple Leafs Playoff Chances 50/50

Lost to Buffalo 2-5, playoff odds down 8.3 to 78.2%
85 points   35 24-15

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Saturday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup
Buffalo 5 Toronto 2 -7.5
-0.5
New Jersey 1 Carolina 3 -0.4
NY Islanders 1 Boston 2 +0.1
Columbus 1 Philadelphia 0 +0.1
Florida 7 Chicago 0 *-0.1
SundayNone

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Toronto finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
10180-0InNo3453127,022,135
10070-1InNo19552613,412,156
9971-0InNo9514041,608,872
60-2InNo8484411,445,984
9861-1100.0%No3366000070,996,785
50-3100.0No333630005,582,199
9762-0100.0No126720100110,123,899
51-2100.0No12276020051,927,730
40-4100.0No120770201,701,567
9652-199.8No01281600161,069,014
41-399.7No0108370021,100,184
30-599.7No01083700331,467
9553-098.9No068013100166,524,189
42-298.5No05801410098,168,347
31-498.1No0479152005,147,231
20-697.7No0479152040,662
9443-193.9No026725600202,994,257
32-392.1No01662570031,911,371
21-590.9No016425810753,701
10-790.2No164259102,787
9344-084.5No1523214200157,385,474
33-280.2No049311720098,966,174
22-476.6No04630203005,836,721
11-674.6No04430214060,917
00-868.6No452328386
9234-160.6No0303031810153,471,428
23-354.3No02827341110024,129,774
12-550.4No02525351310569,076
01-748.0No02324361422,094
9135-039.6No01723391930095,196,913
24-232.2No01418392440056,147,868
13-427.0No0121539286002,944,569
02-624.2No1014383080023,156
9025-114.8No0593537121069,632,323
14-310.6No46304117109,127,419
03-58.3No3527422020142,921
8926-05.5No242343263035,987,351
15-23.3No121742325016,981,337
04-42.0No1113403770555,764
8816-10.7No0073245141017,555,757
05-30.3No004274818101,382,565
8717-00.1No0021847294007,777,782
06-20.0No0011347345002,138,008
8607-10.0No0004314816101,897,140
8508-0OutNo0115473250881,286
Total:78.2%No1853016126310001,760,658,440

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Toronto finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupWashingtonColumbusPittsburghNY RangersMontrealOttawaBostonNY IslandersTampa BayCarolinaFlorida
10180-06.2%01132144920000
10070-16.200118205830000
9971-06.20008226540000
60-26.30007236540000
9861-16.20003246840000
50-36.20003256840000
9762-06.31001256940000
51-26.3100125684010
40-46.310012568410
9652-16.2411024663010
41-36.241102466310
30-56.242102465310
9553-06.2832022613000
42-26.293202260200
31-46.193202160200
20-66.1103202159200
9443-15.91654018501000
32-35.8165401748100
21-55.7175401747100
10-74.91754164810
9344-05.3217401438100
33-25.0206401336000
22-44.8206401234000
11-64.62064113300
00-83.515531431
9234-13.820640822000
23-33.418540721000
12-53.117530619000
01-73.5174351800
9135-02.515530413000
24-22.012420311000
13-41.71032039000
02-61.610322800
9025-10.9621014000
14-30.7411013
03-50.531113
8926-00.3210001
15-20.2100001
04-40.110001
8816-10.000000
05-30.000000
8717-00.000000
06-20.000000
8607-10.0000
8508-0No
Total:4.9%10.53.42.30.715.643.71.70.00.30.00.0
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Saturday100.0*Lottery seed
Buffalo 5 Toronto 2 +1.0
NY Islanders 1 Boston 2 +0.2
Montreal 3 Ottawa 1 -0.1
SundayNone

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
10180-01223458120
10070-13163420260
9971-0091833391
60-2081533432
9861-10343251900000
50-303330521200000
9762-0011254626001000
51-2010224432002000
40-401020423600200
9652-10001228546000
41-3001025586100
30-5001023606100
9553-00061366112100
42-20051169113100
31-4004971114200
20-60487111420
9443-10023641411600
32-3012631312700
21-5012621312810
10-711621213910
9344-001151112014200
33-20049102117200
22-4004692120300
11-600449212140
00-8144914283
9234-10030525308100
23-300284233311100
12-50025322351320
01-7002332136142
9135-0001722138193000
24-200141173825500
13-4001211437287000
02-6101133630810
9025-100509323714200
14-30406284019200
03-5305254122300
8926-0204193929710
15-2102143834910
04-41011135381210
8816-10005254123500
05-30003214227600
8717-000111343615200
06-20018323918200
8607-1000215373410100
8508-00052240266100
Total:011713400061012631000000