Toronto Maple Leafs Playoff Chances 50/50

Did not play, playoff odds up 3.7 to 56.4%
67 points   28 20-11

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Wednesday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup
Florida 3 Edmonton 4 +1.7
+0.1
Anaheim 5 Boston 3 +1.7
+0.1
Philadelphia 1 Washington 4 +0.6
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Thursday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup
Toronto vs NY Rangers+7.1+7.1+5.7-1.4-1.4-8.7
+0.4+0.4+0.4-0.1-0.1-0.5
Los Angeles vs Boston+1.5+0.3+0.3-1.0-1.3-1.3
+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1
Tampa Bay vs Calgary-0.8-0.8-0.6+0.2+0.2+0.9
-0.0-0.0-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1
Montreal vs NY Islanders+0.6-0.4-0.3-0.7-0.9-0.2
+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1-0.0

What If

Chances based on how well the Toronto finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
113230-0In45.6%59410109,306
112220-1In23.23763866
111221-0In13.9287205,035*
110211-1In6.61684018,676*
109201-2In2.910900065,080*
108202-1In0.959410181,772*
107192-2In0.229620477,349*
106193-1In0.0196301,088,312*
105183-2In0.0094602,335,099*
104184-1In0.0090100004,512,726*
103174-2In0.0084150008,247,705*
102164-3InNo0762310013,866,879*
101165-2100.0%No06631300022,100,815*
100155-3100.0No055406000032,771,500*
99156-2100.0No424711000046,296,117*
98146-399.9No3050190100061,292,021*
97147-299.5No19492803000077,478,986*
96137-398.1No11423807200092,291,220*
95138-294.0No5324501251000105,154,950*
94128-384.8No2204601712200054,249,180
139-185.1No2214501712200059,011,202*
93129-271.4No11240019217100056,081,773
118-467.8No11038019238100060,739,016*
92119-348.8No052801630174000054,713,078
1210-149.4No052801629174000059,498,837*
911110-230.7No0218011302710200050,894,483
109-427.1No0216010302812300056,047,191*
901010-313.2No008052233228100045,505,783
1111-113.8No018052233228100049,496,804*
891011-25.0No0030212293117510080,887,844*
88911-31.4No0010051832281330065,309,220*
87912-20.3No00001823332491050,522,527*
86812-30.1No00003122833195037,020,279*
85813-20.0No00001517333012226,000,175*
84713-30.0No000018253724517,254,539*
83714-20.0No000031535351210,954,043*
82614-3OutNo00172743226,553,612*
81615-20.0No000031744363,743,612*
80515-3OutNo001939512,003,684*
79516-2OutNo00431651,020,692*
78416-3OutNo0022276485,490*
77417-2OutNo0011485218,378*
76418-1OutNo099190,221*
75318-2OutNo059535,504*
74319-1OutNo029812,370*
73219-2OutNo1994,158*
72220-1OutNo1991,186*
71120-2OutNo0100341*
68-70OutNo10095*
67023-0OutNo0100109,149
Total:56.4%0.0%01018210711108643111,316,758,880

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Toronto finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupWashingtonPittsburghColumbusNY RangersMontrealOttawaFloridaNY IslandersBostonTampa BayBuffaloPhiladelphiaCarolinaNew JerseyDetroit
113230-06.3%061620436287215210
112220-15.4113212642515520411
111221-06.21112532223153112100
110211-16.51132836112102102100
109201-26.3215293911281001100
108202-16.3216304111161001000
107192-26.2216304211151001000
106193-16.3216304121141000000
105183-26.3216294132141000000
104184-16.3216283943242000000
103174-26.2215263765332100000
102164-36.2213233397433110000
101165-26.321220291210535110000
100155-36.311016241614726210000
166-16.221016241614726210000
99156-26.21813192017928210000
145-46.31812182018928210000
98146-36.226913232111110320000
157-16.316101423201119320000
135-56.225812242212110320000
97147-26.22469262312111320000
136-46.23458262413111420000
158-06.23469262312111320000
96137-36.15345262413011420000
148-16.24346272413011420000
126-56.16334262413011420000
95138-25.98333252312011420000
127-45.89333242312010420000
149-05.98333252312010420000
94128-35.31232221201009320000
139-15.51132223211109420000
117-55.11232220191008320000
93129-24.5133211716807320000
118-44.2133211615706320000
1310-04.3133211615706320000
92119-33.0113211110504210000
1210-13.1113211110504210000
911110-21.9721176302110000
109-41.7621166202110000
901010-30.831103310100000
891011-20.310001100000000
88911-30.1000000000000
87912-20.000000000000
86913-10.000000000000
85813-20.000000000000
84814-10.000000000
83714-2No000
82715-1No
81615-2No0
67-80No
Total:3.5%5.33.03.74.713.011.96.00.45.21.91.10.00.00.00.1
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Wednesday100.0*Lottery seed
Florida 3 Edmonton 4 -0.2
Anaheim 5 Boston 3 -0.2
Philadelphia 1 Washington 4 -0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Thursday100.0*Lottery seed
Toronto vs NY Rangers-1.0-1.0-0.8+0.2+0.2+1.2
Los Angeles vs Boston-0.2-0.0-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Montreal vs NY Islanders+0.1+0.1+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.2
Tampa Bay vs Calgary+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.0-0.0-0.1

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
113230-046134100
112220-1231463
111221-014147200
110211-171083100
109201-2378820000
108202-1149040000
107192-2028880010
106193-1018214003000
105183-2007321005000
104184-1006030009000000
103174-20046380015000000
102164-30324400211001000
101165-202046002740020000
100155-30114400318005000000
99156-25370031160011000000
98146-3228002525001800010000
97147-2018017320028100300000
96137-301009340035300702000
95138-205042900387001105100
127-405328003780012061000
94128-30211900321400170122000
139-10212000321300170122000
93129-201011002118001812271000
92119-300050101800151301740000
1210-100050111800151291740000
911110-2002413008229281220000
901010-3000170032213323820000
891011-200003001110263120710000
88911-30001000313272918610000
87912-20000001415272817610000
86812-3000000151526271772000
85813-20000000151526271872000
84713-30000015152628187100
83714-200001515272817510
82614-3000161830281430
81615-200002822332681
80515-30003122936192
79516-2001519393150
78416-30002103443110
77417-200052451200
76418-1021552310
75318-201848430
74319-10441540
73219-2233651
72220-1124741
71120-2118801
70121-111863
69122-012826
68022-18020
67023-038215
Total:002800612001470071119754321110000