Sports Club Stats, which I have open
in like seven browser tabs always
-Katie Baker

Toronto Maple Leafs Playoff Chances 50/50

Lost to Detroit 1-3, playoff odds down 5.3 to 75.1%
41 points   20 13-1

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Friday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Detroit 3 Toronto 1 -4.8
-0.3
-1.0
NY Rangers 4 Los Angeles 2 -0.2
+0.1
New Jersey 5 Dallas 2 -0.1
Buffalo 4 Carolina 5 (ot)-0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Boston vs NY Rangers-0.2-0.5-0.4-0.1-0.1+0.4
Ottawa vs Montreal+0.3-0.3-0.2-0.4-0.5-0.1
NY Islanders vs Los Angeles-0.2-0.2-0.2*+0.1*+0.0+0.2
Arizona vs Pittsburgh+0.2*+0.1*+0.0-0.1-0.2-0.2
Philadelphia vs Dallas-0.2-0.2-0.2*+0.0*+0.0+0.2
Washington vs Anaheim-0.2-0.1-0.1*+0.0*+0.0+0.2
Carolina vs Columbus*+0.0-0.1-0.2-0.1-0.1+0.1
Colorado vs Tampa Bay+0.1*-0.0*+0.0-0.1*-0.1-0.0
+0.2+0.0+0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1
Calgary vs Nashville+0.1*+0.0+0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Toronto finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
122-137In100.0%1006,415*
121386-4In99.3991551*
120376-5In99.199011,171*
119377-4In98.799012,463*
118367-5In97.899014,750*
117368-4In96.598028,918*
116358-5In94.9970315,690*
115359-4In92.59504027,689*
114349-5In88.69316046,571*
1133410-4In83.69018076,142*
1123310-5In77.1872110121,078*
1113311-4In69.1823150185,544*
1103211-5In59.3765190276,765*
1093111-6In48.4697240403,566*
1083112-5In37.0619300567,032*
1073012-6In26.052113510777,976*
1063013-5In16.6431442101,037,674*
1052913-6In9.2341748201,347,664*
1042914-5In4.42518543001,704,644*
1032814-6In1.71719595002,098,801*
1022815-5In0.51119637002,522,467*
1012715-6In0.16176611002,959,336*
1002716-5100.0%0.0315661510003,378,871*
992616-6100.00.0112652110003,768,720*
982617-5100.0No086127200004,103,819*
972517-699.9No065634410004,357,356*
962518-599.6No0448406200004,520,040*
952418-698.6No0240459410004,581,583*
942419-595.6No013147107310004,526,838*
932319-688.8No012346911831004,371,927*
922320-577.2No0164361213720004,129,641*
912220-661.3No010374111714610003,803,796*
902221-544.2No062927172113410003,429,761*
892121-629.0No0321141323211020003,013,298*
882122-517.6No021402821271971002,588,461*
872022-610.0No019014142727144002,176,483*
862023-55.2No00500182231228101,786,625*
851923-62.6No002000414293016401,429,766*
841924-51.1No010018233325811,120,014*
831824-60.5No000004153133152856,233*
821825-50.2No0000192537235638,112*
811725-60.1No0000041836339466,181*
801726-50.0No000211324015332,086*
791626-60.0No0016264522231,287*
781627-50.0No0003194731156,002*
771527-60.0No0001134441103,634*
761528-5OutNo018405166,510*
751428-6OutNo005356041,986*
741429-5OutNo03286925,809*
731329-6OutNo01237515,492*
721330-5OutNo118829,048*
711230-6OutNo012875,202*
701231-5OutNo09902,825*
691232-4OutNo7931,482*
681132-5OutNo496758*
671133-4OutNo199395*
661033-5OutNo496195*
65933-6OutNo29891*
64934-5OutNo29849*
41-63OutNo1005,989*
Total:75.1%2.1%563324334554321174,239,272

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Toronto finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupTampa BayColumbusNew JerseyWashingtonBostonNY RangersNY IslandersPhiladelphiaPittsburghCarolinaMontrealDetroitOttawaFloridaBuffalo
137480-06.0%11098511111010955330
128412-5No5050
127424-2No5050
126414-3No1429142914
125404-411.8186246181866
124405-34.0144861012181062424
123395-44.71389578991187121
122385-53.301381031299985355
121386-46.9187851211911946441
120376-56.11108941110991054450
119377-45.5197951110991155430
118367-56.71899611101010954430
117368-46.1198961110910965330
116358-56.4198961111109965430
115359-46.3198971010991065430
114349-56.118898101099965440
1133410-46.218889101099966441
1123310-56.318781091098976440
1113311-46.31878129988876441
1103211-56.21777139988886441
1093111-66.31767168877787551
1083112-56.32667188877797551
1073012-66.326662177666108551
1063013-56.235562366555108551
1052913-66.335552655555119661
1042914-56.244442955444129661
1032814-66.3543431443331210661
1022815-56.3633334333331310761
1012715-66.2722335332221410771
1002716-56.2822237222221411771
992616-66.3922238221111511871
982617-56.21011139111111511871
972517-66.21011139111111511871
962518-56.21122138111111511871
952418-66.21222237111111411871
942419-56.01422234111101310771
932319-65.6143223111000129661
922320-54.8142222711000107551
912220-63.811221211100086441
902221-52.78111160000064330
892121-61.85000120000043220
882122-51.1200080000022110
872022-60.6100050000011110
862023-50.3000030000011000
851923-60.2000010000000000
841924-50.100001000000000
831824-60.0000000000
821825-50.00000000
811725-60.00000000
801625-70.000000
791727-40.0000
781627-5No00
771729-2No0
41-76No
Total:4.7%8.01.91.91.826.31.51.51.21.11.110.17.65.45.10.6
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Friday100.0*Lottery seed
Detroit 3 Toronto 1 +1.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday100.0*Lottery seed
Boston vs NY Rangers+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.0+0.0-0.1
Colorado vs Tampa Bay-0.1+0.0-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Ottawa vs Montreal-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.0

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT12345678910111213141516171819202122232425262728293031
123-137100
122385-51000
121386-4991
120376-599001
119377-499001
118367-598101
117368-497102
116358-595203
115359-4923040
114349-58941600
1133410-484718000
1123310-57792011000
1113311-469133015000
1103211-559175019000
1093111-648216024000
1083112-5372490291000
1073012-626261113320100
1063013-51727131373101000
1052913-6924143407202000
1042914-542014539123030000
1032814-6215127341870500000
1022815-51109926251107100000
1012715-60661117301729200000
1002716-5034119312251041010000
992616-601210326251110730100000
982617-50181192319812702000000
972517-600501117275151223110000
962518-500305113321517643100000
952418-6002025321121913353110000
942419-500112280716232752310000
932319-6001012203113218566410000
922320-5000015016360639885200000
912220-6000100033404110611117310000
902221-50006012802073914149410000
892121-600300211041411171712620000
882122-5002001400201512192014720000
872022-601009001001513202216831000
862023-50000500000261322241782000
851923-60002000000261423251882000
841924-500100000026162526166100
831824-600000002818272514400
821825-5000001310223023920
811725-6000000141428311840
801726-500002721332791
791626-6000003133035162
781627-5000172439254
771527-6000031638357
761528-500110344312
751428-6006274819
741429-503205027
731329-602145034
721330-5194842
711230-60064351
701231-5043759
691232-423167
681132-512376
671133-401387
661033-51288
65933-61486
64934-5892
41-63100
Total:232368712356111212222232222211100