Detroit Red Wings Playoff Chances 50/50

Lost to Edmonton 2-6, playoff odds down 5.8 to 44.3%
23 points   10 9-3

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Wednesday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Detroit 2 Edmonton 6 -5.7
-0.4
-0.5
New Jersey 2 Boston 3 (so)-0.4
Pittsburgh 2 Vancouver 5 +0.4
Washington 5 Ottawa 2 +0.3
Columbus 1 Calgary 0 (ot)-0.3
Buffalo 4 Minnesota 5 +0.3
NY Islanders 4 Philadelphia 3 (ot)-0.2
Florida 2 Toronto 1 (so)-0.2
Tampa Bay 3 Chicago 2 (ot)-0.2
-0.1
Carolina 1 NY Rangers 6 +0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
NY Rangers vs Detroit-5.9-1.2-1.1+4.0+4.6+4.9
-0.4-0.1-0.1+0.2+0.3+0.3
-0.3-0.1-0.1+0.2+0.2+0.3
Columbus vs Ottawa+0.4-0.1-0.1-0.4-0.5-0.2
Boston vs Pittsburgh-0.2-0.4-0.4-0.2-0.2+0.4
Carolina vs Toronto+0.3-0.2-0.2-0.3-0.4-0.1
New Jersey vs Vancouver-0.2-0.2-0.2*+0.0*+0.1+0.3
Washington vs Tampa Bay-0.1-0.3-0.2*-0.1-0.1+0.2
Buffalo vs Edmonton-0.2-0.1-0.2*+0.0*+0.1+0.2
Philadelphia vs NY Islanders+0.1-0.2-0.2-0.2-0.2+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Detroit finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
122-143InYes1004,532*
121468-6In98.8%991165*
120469-5In99.6100277*
119459-6In98.39901633*
1184510-5In97.499011,166*
1174410-6In96.398022,140*
1164411-5In95.497123,630*
1154311-6In92.1951406,251*
1144312-5In88.49315010,772*
1134212-6In84.49127017,611*
1124112-7In77.98839027,853*
1114113-6In70.784412043,516*
1104013-7In61.879615066,007*
1094014-6In51.1728200097,759*
1083914-7In39.964112410141,760*
1073915-6In29.055143020200,176*
1063815-7In19.146163530277,487*
1053816-6In11.3371940400375,162*
1043716-7In5.7272145700498,277*
1033717-6In2.41922491010646,880*
1023617-7In0.81221521410821,676*
1013618-6100.0%0.2719522020001,021,984*
1003518-7100.00.031651264001,245,601*
993519-6100.00.0112473271001,486,851*
983419-799.90.01942371010001,739,353*
973420-699.60.006354115300001,995,966*
963320-798.5No04284218710002,245,269*
953321-695.4No0220412012410002,476,713*
943221-788.6No0114371917830002,675,642*
933222-676.5No00931152115720002,840,894*
923122-759.7No052510202113510002,956,599*
913022-841.0No0318515242111310003,013,256*
903023-724.6No011229212619820003,021,335*
892923-813.0No017151425261551002,966,943*
882924-76.2No004028202824113002,858,739*
872824-82.7No002013122529197102,707,641*
862825-71.1No001001618292714302,514,553*
852725-80.4No00000311253122712,289,680*
842726-70.2No00000151731291322,048,089*
832626-80.1No0000021126342151,796,789*
822627-70.0No00001620353091,548,246*
812527-80.0No000003133237151,308,922*
802528-70.0No000182742221,087,143*
792428-80.0No00004214431884,624*
782429-7OutNo002154340706,788*
772329-8OutNo0001103950554,881*
762330-7OutNo00063459426,891*
752230-8OutNo0042968322,095*
742231-7OutNo0022375239,136*
732131-8OutNo011881174,171*
722132-7OutNo011485123,683*
712133-6OutNo00108986,483*
702033-7OutNo089259,249*
692034-6OutNo059539,710*
681934-7OutNo049626,340*
671935-6OutNo039717,067*
661835-7OutNo29810,544*
651836-6OutNo1996,648*
641736-7OutNo01004,126*
631737-6OutNo01002,483*
621637-7OutNo01001,357*
611638-6OutNo0100830*
601538-7OutNo0100424*
591539-6OutNo100251*
581439-7OutNo199138*
571440-6OutNo10059*
561340-7OutNo49627*
23-55OutNo1004,423*
Total:44.3%0.8%231216666788877554,782,366

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Detroit finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupTampa BayColumbusNew JerseyTorontoNY IslandersBostonOttawaNY RangersCarolinaPittsburghWashingtonPhiladelphiaFloridaMontrealBuffalo
143600-06.2%278889978886643
129515-4NoYes
127484-8YesYes
126496-5NoYes
125497-414.32914291414
124498-3No126121866186126
123477-66.8579759161195927
122467-74.4199712671036104941
121468-66.727647878107107754
120469-57.64588951088596642
119459-67.33871178977876743
1184510-55.7366987978987552
1174410-66.1378989978876653
1164411-55.7376888988786653
1154311-65.7376979988786642
1144312-56.53771079988876642
1134212-66.146710791087776643
1124112-76.3466107101077776652
1114113-66.2466127101077676652
1104013-76.1566136101066775652
1094014-66.3556146111166665642
1083914-76.2655156111166665642
1073915-66.3755175121255554642
1063815-76.3844185121355554642
1053816-66.3944204131344443642
1043716-76.31144214131444443642
1033717-66.21233233141433332642
1023617-76.21433243141533332642
1013618-66.31533253151522222642
1003518-76.21622252151522221642
993519-66.31723262151522221642
983419-76.31833252151522221642
973420-66.21833252141522221642
963320-76.11944233131422221542
953321-66.02044223121222221542
943221-75.52055193111122221431
933222-64.819441639911111331
923122-73.715441226611110221
913123-62.61122824411110211
903023-71.5711513300000110
893024-60.8311302100000100
882924-70.4200201100000000
872925-60.2100100000000000
862825-70.1000000000000000
852826-60.0000000000000000
842726-70.000000000000000
832727-60.00000000000
822627-70.00000000
812628-60.000000000
802629-50.00000
792529-6No00
23-78No
Total:2.8%8.71.91.910.01.45.75.80.90.90.90.90.52.31.70.7
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Wednesday100.0*Lottery seed
Detroit 2 Edmonton 6 +1.2
Washington 5 Ottawa 2 -0.1
New Jersey 2 Boston 3 (so)+0.1
Tampa Bay 3 Chicago 2 (ot)+0.1
Florida 2 Toronto 1 (so)+0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday100.0*Lottery seed
NY Rangers vs Detroit+1.2+0.2+0.2-0.8-0.9-0.9
Carolina vs Toronto-0.1+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.0
Columbus vs Ottawa-0.1+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Boston vs Pittsburgh+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.1
Washington vs Tampa Bay-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.0

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT12345678910111213141516171819202122232425262728293031
122-143100
121468-69911
120469-51000
119459-698001
1184510-597101
1174410-696102
1164411-595212
1154311-6923140
1144312-5885150
1134212-6847270
1124112-778103900
1114113-671134012000
1104013-762176015000
1094014-6512180190000
1083914-74024110231010
1073915-629261312810200
1063815-7192715131313000
1053816-611251733451040000
1043716-76211743393060000
1033717-62161573013501000100
1023617-711112924199013100100
1013618-60781116221311621020000
1003518-7035118231731852040000
993519-601310319196171050601000
983419-7011811417101315909110000
973420-60005081215818141113300000
963320-700303717317184127601000
953321-600201316112181091110241000
943221-700100112071416514125831000
933222-600000803920213101113831000
923122-700005014190951514148310000
913022-8000302160521410171610410000
903023-7000100110209412191913620000
892923-8001007010415132021158310000
882924-7000004000201513202217941000
872824-80000020010015122023191141000
862825-700010000015122024201241000
852725-8000000001411202521114100
842726-700000000151222262110300
832626-800000001514242719820
822627-7000000271727271540
812527-8000000310223024101
802528-7000014142831173
792428-80000282235267
782429-7001416333413
772329-8000210294020
762330-700015224328
752230-80003164338
742231-7001114047
732131-800173656
722132-70043165
712133-60022572
702033-70012078
692034-6011683
681934-7001287
671935-60991
661835-70793
651836-60595
641736-7397
631737-60298
621637-7298
611638-6199
601538-7199
591539-6100
581439-7199
571440-6100
561340-7496
23-55100
Total:1112233423462323334444444444432