Florida Panthers Playoff Chances 50/50

Beat Toronto 2-1 (so), playoff odds up 3.4 to 24.9%
18 points   8 11-2

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Wednesday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Florida 2 Toronto 1 (so)+2.8
+0.2
+0.0
Detroit 2 Edmonton 6 +0.4
New Jersey 2 Boston 3 (so)-0.2
Washington 5 Ottawa 2 +0.2
Pittsburgh 2 Vancouver 5 +0.2
Buffalo 4 Minnesota 5 +0.2
Columbus 1 Calgary 0 (ot)-0.2
Tampa Bay 3 Chicago 2 (ot)-0.1
Nashville 3 Montreal 2 (so)*+0.1
NY Islanders 4 Philadelphia 3 (ot)*-0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Columbus vs Ottawa+0.3-0.1-0.1-0.3-0.4-0.2
Boston vs Pittsburgh-0.1-0.3-0.3-0.2-0.1+0.3
NY Rangers vs Detroit+0.3-0.1-0.1-0.3-0.3-0.1
Carolina vs Toronto+0.2-0.2-0.1-0.3-0.3-0.1
New Jersey vs Vancouver-0.2-0.2-0.1*+0.0*+0.0+0.2
Washington vs Tampa Bay-0.1-0.2-0.2*-0.1-0.1+0.2
Buffalo vs Edmonton-0.1-0.1-0.1*+0.1*+0.0+0.2
Philadelphia vs NY Islanders+0.1-0.2-0.1-0.1-0.1*+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Florida finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
121-140InYes1004,405*
120498-4In96.3%96427*
118-119InYes100138*
117479-5In96.09911200*
116469-6In94.7973398*
1154610-5In92.29514791*
1144510-6In89.695151,440*
1134511-5In84.7922702,600*
1124411-6In77.98731004,401*
1114311-7In71.48441207,612*
1104312-6In61.878616012,610*
1094212-7In50.9718210020,027*
1084213-6In40.66411251032,097*
1074113-7In29.555133010048,888*
1064114-6In19.54616353073,254*
1054014-7In11.636194040107,716*
1044015-6In6.0272145700155,003*
1033915-7100.0%2.519224910100216,841*
1023916-6In0.91221511510298,504*
1013816-7100.00.27195220200400,519*
1003817-6100.00.03165026400527,138*
993717-7100.00.011246327100677,318*
983718-699.90.0184137112000856,403*
973618-799.5No06344116400001,057,909*
963619-698.2No03264120820001,280,807*
953519-794.7No0219392113410001,524,115*
943520-687.2No0113352019931001,771,870*
933420-774.3No00829152216720002,022,921*
923320-856.7No042210212214510002,265,002*
913321-737.9No00215515242212410002,489,923*
903221-821.9No011029212620920002,683,087*
893222-711.1No006141425261761002,836,681*
883122-85.0No003027192825123002,939,434*
873123-72.1No001003112429218102,994,575*
863023-80.8No001001617292815402,991,061*
853024-70.3No00000210233223812,933,577*
842924-80.1No00000151630311522,822,617*
832925-70.0No0000021025352352,666,968*
822825-80.0No00015183531102,473,826*
812826-70.0No00002123238162,254,964*
802726-80.0No0000172643242,013,432*
792727-70.0No000041944331,765,866*
782627-8OutNo00021442421,523,090*
772628-70.0No0001939521,288,489*
762528-8OutNo000534611,071,479*
752529-7OutNo0032869871,995*
742429-8OutNo0022276700,489*
732430-7OutNo0011881549,649*
722330-8OutNo011386421,662*
712331-7OutNo001090320,452*
702231-8OutNo00793237,778*
692232-7OutNo0595172,748*
682132-8OutNo0496123,716*
672133-7OutNo039786,756*
662033-8OutNo029860,011*
652034-7OutNo19940,378*
642035-6OutNo19926,758*
631935-7OutNo010017,619*
621936-6OutNo010010,959*
611836-7OutNo01006,938*
601837-6OutNo01004,244*
56-59OutNo1005,259*
551539-7OutNo0100249*
18-54OutNo1004,683*
Total:24.9%0.2%11694457891011121254,782,366

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Florida finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupTampa BayColumbusNew JerseyTorontoNY IslandersBostonOttawaNY RangersCarolinaPittsburghWashingtonDetroitPhiladelphiaMontrealBuffalo
140610-06.4%277797888888742
125493-9YesYes
124505-6NoYes
123506-5YesYes
122507-4NoYes
121508-312.5131313131338
120498-47.441511111177741147
119488-57.54261199246131161142
118478-69.465687119813754651
117479-56.048810759106958636
116469-65.8266861212676810661
1154610-56.7357879988878552
1144510-65.6467967986889553
1134511-56.33671079988888552
1124411-66.637611610967779642
1114311-76.64661279966779542
1104312-66.5466136101066679542
1094212-76.35651461010666610542
1084213-66.46551561110655610442
1074113-76.37551651111555510442
1064114-66.28441851211555410442
1054014-76.39441941212444410342
1044015-66.311332141212444411342
1033915-76.212332231313333311242
1023916-66.314332331313333311242
1013816-76.215222421413222211242
1003817-66.316222421414222212142
993717-76.317332421414222212142
983718-66.217332421313222211141
973618-76.218332331313222211141
963619-66.119442131212222210141
953519-75.91955203111122229131
943520-65.420551739922227131
933420-74.618551437712116121
923421-63.615441025511114021
913321-72.41022724311113010
903322-61.4611412200002010
893222-70.7311201100001000
883223-60.3100101100000000
873123-70.1000100000000000
863124-60.1000000000000000
853024-70.0000000000000000
843025-60.0000000000000000
832925-70.00000000000
822926-60.00000000
812927-50.0000000
802928-4No00000
792828-5No0
783031-0No
772729-5No0
18-76No
Total:1.6%5.21.21.25.20.82.82.80.50.50.50.52.30.30.80.3
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Wednesday100.0*Lottery seed
Florida 2 Toronto 1 (so)-0.7
New Jersey 2 Boston 3 (so)+0.0
Detroit 2 Edmonton 6 -0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday100.0*Lottery seed
Columbus vs Ottawa-0.1+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.0
Carolina vs Toronto-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.0
Boston vs Pittsburgh+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.0
NY Rangers vs Detroit-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.0

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT12345678910111213141516171819202122232425262728293031
121-140100
120498-4964
118-119100
117479-596311
116469-69523
1154610-592314
1144510-690515
1134511-5857270
1124411-67893100
1114311-77113401200
1104312-662166016000
1094212-7512080200000
1084213-64123110241010
1074113-730261312810100
1064114-619261513231300
1054014-71225163345204000
1044015-66211743483070000
1033915-721615631135010001000
1023916-61111282418901310100
1013816-7079101622131172102000
1003817-6035109221721952040000
993717-7013931919518940701000
983718-60117113171014149010120000
973618-7005071213818141133400000
963619-600303715317184137702000
953519-700201314112189101111241000
943520-600100111071414614136931000
933420-7000007038182131111148310000
923320-800004014170961515159310000
913321-70000201140521310181711410000
903221-8000100902095132019136200000
893222-7000006010416132021158310000
883122-8000030020151320221810410000
873123-70000100000151220231911410000
863023-800010000014112024211251000
853024-70000000001411202521124100
842924-8000000000141221262111300
832925-7000000001513232720820
822825-8000000261627271651
812826-700000029213025102
802726-80000014142832184
792727-70000272134278
782627-80001414333514
772628-7000019284121
762528-80015214330
752529-70002154240
742429-8001103949
732430-700063559
722330-80042967
712331-70022474
702231-80011980
692232-7011485
682132-8001189
672133-700892
662033-80694
652034-70496
642035-60397
631935-7298
621936-6199
611836-7199
601837-6199
591737-70100
581738-60100
571638-70100
561639-6100
551539-7199
18-54100
Total:0001111212241223233444555667776