Colorado Avalanche Playoff Chances 50/50

Did not play, playoff odds down 2.7 to 39.1%
66 points   31 23-4

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Monday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup
NY Islanders 3 Minnesota 5 -1.5
-0.1
Vegas 0 Anaheim 2 -0.7
-0.1
Chicago 1 Los Angeles 3 -0.6
Calgary 1 Boston 2 (ot)+0.1
Nashville 5 Ottawa 2 *-0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Tuesday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup
Vancouver vs Colorado-8.1-1.3-1.3+5.8+6.5+6.6
-0.5-0.1-0.1+0.4+0.4+0.4
St. Louis vs San Jose-0.8-1.3-1.1-0.2-0.2+1.3
-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.1
Winnipeg vs Los Angeles+0.7*+0.0+0.0-0.6-0.7-0.5
Detroit vs Nashville+0.1*-0.0*-0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Colorado finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
114240-0In85.1%9722090,629
113230-1In74.89433404
112231-0In60.8858702,335*
111221-1In46.676121208,927*
110211-2In31.9651619131,197*
109212-1In19.55220262090,480*
108202-2In10.239223540245,366*
107203-1In4.426234470575,102*
106193-2In1.516215013001,271,208*
105194-1100.0%0.481752211002,531,678*
104184-2100.00.141249313004,763,832*
103174-3100.00.01842427008,262,919*
102175-2100.00.0043249131013,599,215*
101165-399.90.00222512230020,845,758*
100166-299.6No0113473270030,415,778*
99156-398.7No00638401410041,726,068*
98157-296.2No00327432340054,613,937*
97147-390.7No00117393490067,499,150*
96148-280.0No00929411820079,795,313*
95138-363.5No00418413061089,419,295*
94139-243.5No00293340142095,961,190*
93129-325.1No001321432660046,872,838
1310-124.9No01321432670050,962,961*
921210-211.8No001113637150095,618,588*
911110-34.5No00042543281088,877,993*
901111-21.4No000114404320079,239,985*
891011-30.3No0006325650067,189,096*
881012-20.1No00022265100054,663,223*
87912-30.0No00011367181042,302,393*
86913-20.0No0000763282031,374,040*
85813-30.0No00354385022,108,513*
84814-20.0No0014246100014,920,762*
83714-3OutNo00305117109,546,282*
82715-2OutNo00205126305,840,830*
81615-3OutNo0124636703,370,725*
80616-2OutNo0637441201,861,747*
79516-3OutNo032749210962,924*
78517-2OutNo011849311475,519*
77417-3OutNo01144432218,940*
76418-2OutNo063754495,302*
75318-3OutNo032763738,638*
74319-2OutNo0118671314,694*
73320-1OutNo01269204,855*
72220-2OutNo0663311,598*
71221-1OutNo26137451*
70121-2OutNo14851112*
69122-1OutNo524823*
68123-0OutNo50504*
67023-1OutNo1001
66024-0OutNo0178390,538
Total:39.1%0.0%0028121618172051001,128,403,356

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Colorado finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupVegasNashvilleWinnipegSan JoseDallasSt. LouisMinnesotaLos AngelesAnaheimCalgaryChicagoEdmontonVancouverArizona
114240-06.2%0642212726544000
113230-16.78422032223340
112231-05.90862232524444
111221-16.10119223232244300
110211-26.401412223212033300
109212-16.2017152221918332000
108202-26.3020191211716222000
107203-16.30242311914142210000
106193-26.2028271181212111000
105194-16.3130300161010111000
104184-26.223232015990000000
103174-36.243333014880000000
102175-26.27323311277000000
164-46.3732331127700000
101165-36.212313211166000000
176-16.212313211166000000
100166-26.21830311955000000
155-46.21929311855000000
177-06.21830311955000000
99156-36.22428292744100000
167-16.22428292744100000
145-56.22627292644100000
98157-26.03026272533100000
146-46.03026262533100000
168-06.03026262533100000
97147-35.73324242322100000
158-15.73324242322100000
136-55.63424232322100000
96148-25.13321202211000000
137-44.93321192211000000
159-05.23322212211000000
126-64.73220181211000000
95138-34.02817151111000000
149-14.22917161111000000
127-53.72716131111000000
94139-22.82112101100000000
128-42.6201191100000000
1410-02.6201191100000000
93129-31.612750000000000
1310-11.612750000000000
921210-20.76320000000000
911110-30.321100000000
901111-20.11000000000
891011-30.00000000000
881012-20.00000000000
87912-30.00000000000
86913-20.000000000
85813-30.0000
84814-2No0
66-83No
Total:2.4%13.310.710.10.61.81.11.00.20.10.10.00.00.00.0
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Monday100.0*Lottery seed
NY Islanders 3 Minnesota 5 +0.1
Vegas 0 Anaheim 2 +0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Tuesday100.0*Lottery seed
Vancouver vs Colorado+0.8+0.1+0.1-0.6-0.6-0.7
St. Louis vs San Jose+0.1+0.1+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.1

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT12345678910111213141516171819202122232425262728293031
114240-085122200
113230-1751933
112231-0612480700
111221-1472911012000
110211-2323316018101
109212-11932200233020
108202-210282212960400
107203-142221231120700
106193-2214183301900130000
105194-1081432427102110100
104184-204941631202930300
103174-3014393040356007000
102175-200223235037120013010
101165-3001111461331810220300
100166-200107422321303207000
99156-30000222132050400140100
98157-2000011151561421230400
97147-300000011852372340900
96148-200000033225441018200
95138-300000112135401306100
94139-2000000015431340142000
93129-300000011217442267000
1310-10000011217442267000
921210-2000001743337171000
911110-30000002220393051000
901111-200000001931411430000
891011-300000031740261120000
881012-2000001728332281000
87912-30000021428311861000
86913-200000051730291440000
85813-300017213226112000
84814-2000021025322271000
83714-30004142931175100
82715-2001619322812300
81615-300292433238100
80616-2000313293217400
79516-3001620342811200
78517-2000210273521500
77417-30041834311110
76418-2001928382120
75318-300418393360
74319-201103243121
73320-1052348212
72220-2021447316
71221-108433910
70121-22294623
69122-1225226
68123-0502525
67023-1100
66024-0043462
Total:000001003311111151171412653211000000