Buffalo Sabres Playoff Chances 50/50

Did not play, playoff odds up 0.5 to 32%
4 points   1 4-2

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Wednesday100.0*Chance in playoffs
Los Angeles 5 Montreal 1 +0.3
Toronto 6 Detroit 3 *+0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Thursday100.0*Chance in playoffs
Ottawa vs New Jersey*-0.1-0.5*-0.3*-0.0*-0.2+0.3
Boston vs Vancouver-0.3*-0.3-0.4*+0.2*-0.0+0.4
Calgary vs Carolina+0.3*+0.0*+0.0-0.3-0.4-0.2
Philadelphia vs Nashville-0.2*-0.2*-0.2*+0.2*+0.1+0.2

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Buffalo finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
121-154InYes100263*
1205615-4In96.8%97331*
1195313-9InYes10066*
1185415-6In99.2991119*
1175315-7In97.7982133*
1165215-8In95.79811254*
1155216-7In91.19532429*
1145116-8In91.19532672*
1135117-7In88.59433965*
1125017-8In80.690641,485*
1115018-7In74.4877602,245*
1104918-8In65.58210803,076*
1094919-7In55.174141104,369*
1084819-8In44.468171516,036*
1074820-7In34.4592020108,368*
1064720-8In22.44924252011,215*
1054620-9100.0%14.739273040014,805*
1044621-8In7.529293470019,314*
1034521-9In3.4203038101025,017*
1024522-8100.01.21328421420031,164*
1014422-9100.00.4825432040038,142*
1004423-8100.00.1421432571046,081*
994323-999.80.021640301020055,014*
984324-899.50.0112353414400064,553*
974224-998.4No082936197100074,616*
964225-895.9No0522352212310084,835*
954125-990.4No03163222177200095,397*
944126-880.7No01102819221351000104,600*
934026-966.0No16211423201031000112,474*
924027-848.4No041592024178200120,936*
913927-931.0No02104142424146100126,767*
903928-817.3No01628192621124100131,372*
893828-98.4No00314132326198200134,415*
883829-83.6No00202717262515510134,450*
873729-91.4No01013102128221130133,214*
863730-80.5No0000151526281861128,848*
853630-90.2No000029213025112124,816*
843631-80.1No000014142731184117,387*
833531-90.0No0000282234268109,181*
823532-80.0No000141632331399,829*
813432-90.0No00021028392090,351*
803433-80.0No0001622412980,484*
793333-9OutNo00317413870,125*
783334-8OutNo000212394861,066*
773234-9OutNo0018355751,506*
763235-8OutNo004296642,838*
753135-9OutNo003247335,701*
743136-8OutNo01198029,086*
733036-9OutNo01158423,413*
723037-8OutNo00118918,362*
712937-9OutNo089213,978*
702938-8OutNo0069410,852*
692838-9OutNo04968,118*
682839-8OutNo03976,077*
672739-9OutNo2984,373*
662740-8OutNo1993,104*
652640-9OutNo1992,240*
642540-10OutNo01001,580*
632541-9OutNo01001,045*
61-62OutNo1001,199*
602443-8OutNo0100312*
4-59OutNo100753*
Total:32.0%0.8%23795567789910122,723,516

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Buffalo finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupTorontoTampa BayColumbusNew JerseyPhiladelphiaOttawaPittsburghCarolinaDetroitWashingtonBostonFloridaNY IslandersMontrealNY Rangers
154750-05.5%868757756787775
126547-14NoYes
1245712-6No2020202020
1235814-3No25252525
1225613-6No13132513131313
1215412-97.41574474711154777
1205615-4No13163310633101010310
1195313-97.698283968125126662
1185415-61.78567897410687663
1175315-76.088437106710957873
1165215-85.1996599658578664
1155216-75.89756776510578773
1145116-86.888566106610587663
1135117-77.46866510667688665
1125017-85.491055610658687564
1115018-76.59105668549678665
1104918-85.4896559568688565
1094919-76.0101055610569578564
1084819-85.4101055510559588564
1074820-76.1111155510559588563
1064720-86.2111244510559489463
1054620-96.21212444114410498463
1044621-86.11313444114411489463
1034521-96.21414443113311399352
1024522-86.21414333123311399362
1014422-96.31515333133312399362
1004423-86.11615333133312299262
994323-96.016153331332122910261
984324-86.11615333133211299261
974224-96.11615443123211299251
964225-86.21514443123311289251
954125-95.6151354311339288241
4226-75.7151344311339288241
944025-104.913125539338277241
4126-85.013124439338266241
934026-94.211104437326255131
924027-83.1873325225143120
913927-91.9542213113122110
903928-81.1331112112011010
893828-90.5111001001011000
883829-80.2110000000000000
873729-90.1000000000000000
863730-80.0000000000000000
853630-90.000000000000000
843732-60.0000000000
833632-70.00000000
823633-60.000
813533-7No00
803534-6No00
4-79No
Total:2.0%5.04.61.51.51.13.81.11.03.40.82.72.70.71.60.4
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Wednesday100.0*Lottery seed
Los Angeles 5 Montreal 1 -0.1
Toronto 6 Detroit 3 *-0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Thursday100.0*Lottery seed
Ottawa vs New Jersey+0.0+0.1+0.1*+0.0*+0.0-0.1
Boston vs Vancouver+0.0+0.0+0.1*-0.0*-0.0-0.0
Calgary vs Carolina-0.0-0.0*+0.0+0.1+0.0+0.0
Chicago vs Edmonton-0.0*+0.0+0.1*-0.0*+0.0*+0.0
Arizona vs Dallas*-0.0+0.0+0.0*+0.1*+0.0-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT12345678910111213141516171819202122232425262728293031
121-154100
1205615-4973
1195313-9100
1185415-6991
1175315-79812
1165215-896211
1155216-791432
1145116-891432
1135117-788633
1125017-881964
1115018-774137060
1104918-8661690800
1094919-7551914011000
1084819-8442316015001
1074820-73424191191010
1064720-82227222231120
1054620-915252432532040000
1044621-8722255265370000
1034521-931722825850100010
1024522-811218102112901310200
1014422-9071312151513117214000
1004423-804813916171193206010
994323-902512414184187501002000
984324-80121011017715109013140000
974224-9017061210913131163701000
964225-8005038124131621661103100
954125-90030141119165131016272000
944126-8001019061397121751351000
934026-9100603811311149181141000
924027-800030141118813191810410000
913927-900020190431213211811410000
903928-80010060218615222012520000
893828-900000301042715222114731000
883829-80000200202715212216931000
873729-90010010026132023181041000
863730-8000000025122023201251000
853630-900000001512192420125100
843631-80000000151220252112410
833531-90000015122226201030
823532-80000261524271871
813432-9000028182826143
803433-8000013112431227
793333-900001618323112
783334-8000311283720
773234-90017224030
763235-8003164040
753135-902113651
743136-80163261
733036-90042769
723037-80022177
712937-9011683
702938-8011188
692838-900891
682839-80694
672739-9496
662740-80298
652640-9298
642540-10199
632541-9199
622441-10199
612442-9199
602443-80100
4-59100
Total:1112122222333232344444444555567