Buffalo Sabres Playoff Chances 50/50

Lost to Carolina 4-5 (ot), playoff odds down 0.3 to 2.5%
23 points   8 18-7

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Friday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup
Buffalo 4 Carolina 5 (ot)-0.3
-0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup
Boston vs NY Rangers-0.1-0.1-0.1*-0.0-0.0+0.1
Ottawa vs Montreal+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1-0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Buffalo finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
121490-0In99.9%10005,956
110424-3In66.783176*
109414-4In50.06472914*
108415-3In40.647252832*
107405-4In29.2601128265*
106406-3In18.44017402163*
105396-4In12.23519442344*
104386-5In5.72917513724*
103387-4In2.4181955701,586*
102377-5In0.913176010003,050*
101378-4In0.26176115105,912*
100368-5In0.031460212010,858*
99369-4100.0%No111572740018,996*
98359-5100.0No085233610032,576*
973510-499.8No0543401020054,424*
963410-599.1No03354314410087,722*
953411-496.8No0126441783000136,671*
943311-591.0No011842161472000207,897*
933211-679.5No0123713181361000305,408*
923212-562.3No072981820134100437,469*
913112-642.6No042141322211130000609,309*
903113-525.2No0214281926198200827,675*
893013-613.1No019031224271761001,094,394*
883014-56.1No005016182825133001,408,206*
872914-62.7No002002102330228201,767,483*
862915-51.1No01001415282916402,165,235*
852815-60.4No00000282232251012,581,076*
842816-50.1No00000041429321733,003,567*
832716-60.0No000001722352673,417,988*
822717-50.0No0000003153335133,788,793*
812617-60.0No0000192841214,106,431*
802618-50.0No000052143314,340,703*
792518-60.0No000021441424,490,355*
782519-5OutNo001937534,530,812*
772419-6OutNo000532634,465,497*
762420-5OutNo000325714,310,517*
752320-6OutNo00220794,058,154*
742321-5OutNo00114853,737,600*
732221-6OutNo0010893,362,664*
722222-5OutNo007932,958,244*
712122-6OutNo005952,542,861*
702123-5OutNo03972,138,332*
692023-6OutNo02981,755,818*
682024-5OutNo01991,410,072*
671924-6OutNo01991,105,924*
661925-5OutNo0199844,617*
651825-6OutNo00100634,593*
641826-5OutNo00100464,435*
631726-6OutNo0100331,636*
621727-5OutNo0100231,645*
611627-6OutNo0100158,356*
601628-5OutNo0100105,003*
591528-6OutNo010067,955*
581529-5OutNo010043,559*
571429-6OutNo010026,619*
561430-5OutNo010015,902*
551330-6OutNo01009,566*
541331-5OutNo01005,385*
531231-6OutNo1003,069*
521232-5OutNo01001,667*
23-51OutNo1007,682*
Total:2.5%0.0%0001011234711205074,239,272

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Buffalo finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupTampa BayColumbusNew JerseyTorontoWashingtonBostonNY RangersNY IslandersPhiladelphiaPittsburghCarolinaMontrealDetroitOttawaFlorida
121490-06.6%1787971098986533
110424-3No171717171717
109414-47.1147297147777
108415-36.33916633661916336
107405-46.2265205171125539922
106406-37.437316719445664745
105396-45.545421518545428743
104386-56.2633243214534310533
103387-46.373425321443238743
102377-55.6922262223323310554
101378-46.6102327222332229744
100368-56.11122272242212110744
99369-46.31222282242111110744
98359-56.21322292231111110744
973510-46.1142228223111119644
963410-56.1153327322111119644
953411-46.1164325320121118543
3310-65.9164424320221118543
329-86.0164424320211118543
943311-55.8174422317111117533
3210-75.6184421317121117533
3412-35.5184422318221117533
933211-64.9184417314111115422
3312-45.1184418315111116432
3110-84.9184418314111115432
923212-53.9163314211110104322
3111-73.7153313210110004322
3313-34.1163314312111104322
3010-93.7153313210110004322
913112-62.61122917110003211
3213-42.912221028110003211
3011-82.41022917010002211
3314-22.811221028110003211
903113-51.6711615000002111
3012-71.4611614000002111
3214-31.6711615000002111
893114-40.9300403000001110
3013-60.8300303000001100
2912-80.8300302000001100
883014-50.4100201000000000
873015-40.2000101000000000
862915-50.1000000000000000
852916-40.0000000000000000
842816-50.0000000000000
832817-40.000000000
822717-50.00000000
812718-40.00000000
802618-50.000000
792619-40.0000
23-78No
Total:0.2%0.50.10.10.60.10.50.00.00.00.00.00.20.10.10.1
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Friday100.0*Lottery seed
Buffalo 4 Carolina 5 (ot)+0.1
SaturdayNone

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT12345678910111213141516171819202122232425262728293031
121490-010000
110424-3671717
109414-45014729
108415-34162528
107405-42931112532
106406-318221513822
105396-4122315338422
104386-562312442633
103387-421612735155070
102377-511299272310090000
101378-40671018281311320100
100368-5034109301831551200
99369-41293252181594030000
98359-50171171915111480611000
973510-4004091320718132822000
963410-5003048233181858640100
953411-4001014211131812710713100
943311-500101160714204139562000
933211-60000110392511281011721000
923212-50007014240841412138310000
913112-600040120041128161611520000
903113-5000200140207311181914721000
893013-600100800031411192117931000
883014-500005001014111923191141000
872914-60002000014101923211351000
862915-50010000014101824221351000
852815-60000000001310192523135100
842816-500000000141020272312300
832716-600000001412232821920
822717-50000000151527291740
812617-600000028213227101
802618-5000014132934182
792518-600000172238284
782519-5000031537387
772419-600019324612
762420-500005255218
752320-60002185425
742321-5001125433
732221-600085141
722222-500054649
712122-60034057
702123-50023464
692023-6012971
682024-5002376
671924-6001981
661925-5001585
651825-601189
641826-500991
631726-60694
621727-50595
611627-60397
601628-50298
591528-60298
581529-5199
571429-6199
561430-50100
551330-60100
541331-50100
531231-60100
521232-50100
511132-6100
501133-50100
491033-60100
23-48100
Total:00000000000100000011122345710152621