Buffalo Sabres Playoff Chances 50/50

Did not play, playoff odds up 0.03 to 22.6%
63 points   28 23-7

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Monday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup
Columbus vs Tampa Bay-0.6-0.5-0.8*+0.2*-0.2+0.8
Los Angeles vs Washington+0.8*+0.1*+0.2-0.6-0.7-0.6
San Jose vs Boston+0.1*+0.2*+0.1*-0.1*-0.0-0.2
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Tuesday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup
Florida vs Buffalo-6.7-1.5-1.5+4.8+5.3+5.6
-0.4*-0.1-0.1+0.3+0.3+0.4
New Jersey vs Pittsburgh+1.1*+0.0*+0.0-0.8-0.7-0.8
+0.1*-0.0*+0.0*-0.0*-0.1-0.0
Carolina vs NY Rangers-0.8-0.8-0.8*+0.0*-0.1+1.0
*-0.0-0.1*-0.0*-0.0*-0.0+0.1
Montreal vs Columbus-0.2-0.9-0.7-0.6*-0.3+0.6
Philadelphia vs Tampa Bay-0.6-0.6-0.5*+0.3*+0.2+0.7
-0.1*-0.1*+0.0*-0.0*+0.0+0.1
St. Louis vs Toronto+0.3*-0.1*-0.0*-0.3*-0.3-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Buffalo finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
111240-0In7.8%8911179
109220-2InNo1007*
108221-1InNo841619*
107211-2InNo8018261*
106212-1InNo66331178*
105202-2InNo60364470*
104203-1InNo4943801,103*
103193-2InNo036491502,548*
102183-3InNo026502315,005*
101184-2InNo18473329,478*
100174-3100.0%No1041445016,424*
99175-299.8No6345110027,028*
98165-399.1No32454181041,509*
97166-296.5No117502930060,584*
96156-389.5No010413991082,786*
95157-276.2No05274420400108,643*
94147-356.8No03144032111064,700
158-157.0No03154031111069,658*
93148-237.1No01629392130074,793
137-434.9No01628392340083,108*
92138-318.2No002163734101085,071
149-118.4No00216373491091,947*
91139-28.1No0172942182088,264
128-47.4No00727432030102,707*
90129-32.5No00217423171093,459
1310-12.7No003174231700100,848*
891210-20.8No00183640141086,301
119-40.7No001834401520103,204*
881110-30.1No0032444254084,686
1211-10.1No00032443254091,947*
871111-20.0No000114413491071,497
1010-40.0No01133936111085,974*
861011-30.0No00631421920063,884
1112-10.0No0073141192069,709*
851012-2OutNo0320422950109,210*
84912-3OutNo01113639111084,178*
83913-2OutNo0052744213062,229*
82813-3OutNo021642318143,601*
81814-2OutNo018344016229,534*
80714-3OutNo004244225418,789*
79715-2OutNo01144035911,606*
78615-3OutNo0073145176,687*
77616-2OutNo032344293,657*
76516-3OutNo11244421,961*
75517-2OutNo164251929*
74417-3OutNo042670443*
73418-2OutNo02575202*
72318-3OutNo1188179*
71319-2OutNo109021*
63-70OutNo100193*
Total:22.6%0.0%00038111419181483102,241,098

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Buffalo finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupTampa BayNY IslandersTorontoBostonColumbusWashingtonPittsburghMontrealCarolinaPhiladelphiaFloridaNY RangersNew JerseyDetroit
111240-06.1%2265211811
109220-2No434314
108221-15.35842
107211-23.3346123
106212-13.91405612
105202-26.412365501140
104203-16.715374911151
103193-26.929334632151000
102183-36.2214304133141000
101184-26.432126355424100
173-46.432027335424100
100174-36.4529222665232000
185-16.2527222775232000
99175-26.31033162186222000
164-46.61132172076222000
186-06.193317228622100
98165-36.41835121486312000
176-16.21635121586322000
154-56.1203512128631200
97166-26.0283381085212000
155-45.92933897521200
177-06.2263481185312000
144-65.7313288752110
96156-35.739275564201000
167-15.937295664211000
145-55.73926555420100
95157-24.943193343101000
146-44.8431833321010000
168-04.742213443101000
135-64.844162332101000
94147-33.63910222110000
158-13.73911222210000
136-53.4389112110000
93148-22.3295111100000
137-42.1274111100000
159-02.531611110000
126-62.026411100000
92138-31.1152000000000
149-11.317200000000
127-51.013100000000
91139-20.670000000000
128-40.56000000000
1410-00.5700000000
90129-30.2200000000
1310-10.220000000
891210-20.01000000
881110-30.000000
871111-20.0000
861011-30.00
63-85No
Total:1.4%11.25.31.51.81.10.80.40.20.20.00.00.00.00.0
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

MondayNone
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Tuesday100.0*Lottery seed
Florida vs Buffalo+0.8+0.1+0.1-0.6-0.6-0.7
Philadelphia vs Tampa Bay+0.1+0.1+0.0*-0.0*-0.0-0.1
Montreal vs Columbus+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT12345678910111213141516171819202122232425262728293031
111240-08911
109220-2100
108221-179516
107211-27010182
106212-152131331
105202-249101364
104203-133133043080
103193-20181444800150
102183-301011504901231
101184-24860441203302
100174-3144135244450
99175-2023124370510100
98165-30111123905401810
97166-2001529050029300
96156-30001170401390910
95157-2000004125144020400
94147-3000021132400321110
158-1000021132400311110
93148-20010512903922300
137-400010512803922300
92138-30000111513734910
91139-2000071294218200
128-400006126432030
90129-30000211642318100
1310-1000021174231810
891210-20000008334016200
119-4000007324017300
881110-300021939289100
1211-1000021939289100
871111-20000192935206100
1010-400082735217200
861011-3002142930176100
851012-20041527271772000
84912-300151525271872000
83913-200151425271982000
82813-30015132427198200
81814-20014132428198200
80714-301414262819710
79715-20151527301851
78615-30016172929143
77616-20282234268
76516-300312303817
75517-2015214527
74417-311143846
73418-243363
72318-3342371
71319-22476
70219-3100
69119-43367
63-68100
Total:00000001010701101417151064332111000