Buffalo Sabres Playoff Chances 50/50

Beat Detroit 7-6 (so), playoff odds down 5 to 6.6%

83 points 38 32-7

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Thursday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Win Stanley Cup
Detroit 6 Buffalo 7 (so)	+2.8		+0.2
NY Islanders 6 Tampa Bay 1	-2.5		-0.2
Pittsburgh 4 Minnesota 1	-2.4		-0.2
Florida 7 Ottawa 2	-2.3		-0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Win Stanley Cup
Buffalo vs Carolina	+5.0+5.1+1.5-3.2-3.1-5.3		+0.3+0.3+0.1-0.2-0.2-0.3
NY Islanders vs Philadelphia	-2.1-2.0-1.6*+0.1+0.1+2.7		-0.1-0.1-0.1+0.0+0.0+0.2
Detroit vs Pittsburgh	+2.2+0.9+1.0-1.2-1.9-1.9		+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1
Washington vs Florida	+2.0+0.3+0.3-0.8-1.6-1.6		+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Chances based on how well the Buffalo finish out the regular season. Explain

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance in		Pres	Division seed				Conference seed (wildcard race)
TP	W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy	1a	1b	2	3	WCb	WCa	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

93	5	0		-	0	76.4	%	No					30	46	21	3							383,223
92	4	0		-	1	39.1		No					8	32	42	18							519,227
91	4	1		-	0	17.6		No					2	16	45	38							1,386,264
	3	0		-	2	8.2		No					0	8	40	52							281,902
90	3	1		-	1	2.2		No					0	2	22	75							1,510,597
	2	0		-	3	1.2		No					0	1	17	81							76,442
89	3	2		-	0	0.4		No						0	12	88							2,022,031
	2	1		-	2	Out		No							5	95							614,803
	1	0		-	4	Out		No							5	95							10,365
88	2	2		-	1	Out		No								100							1,762,458	*
87	2	3		-	0	Out		No								82	17	1					1,475,327
	1	2		-	2	Out		No								76	23	1					447,741
	0	1		-	4	Out		No								70	28	2					7,598
86	1	3		-	1	Out		No								61	36	4					801,133
	0	2		-	3	Out		No								54	41	5					40,490
85	1	4		-	0	Out		No								25	54	21	0				536,739
	0	3		-	2	Out		No								16	58	26	0				108,748
84	0	4		-	1	Out		No								7	48	43	3				145,991
83	0	5		-	0	Out		No									23	67	10				79,657

Total:						6.6	%	No					1	5	14	68	9	3	0				12,210,736

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First round opponent based on how well the Buffalo finish out the regular season. Explain


If finish:									Chance will play in first round
TP		W		L	-	OT	Win Cup		Boston	Carolina	New Jersey	NY Rangers

93		5	0		-	0	4.8	%	46	26	5
92		4	0		-	1	2.4		32	6	1	0
91		4	1		-	0	1.1		16	1	0
		3	0		-	2	0.5		8	0	0
90		3	1		-	1	0.1		2	0	0
		2	0		-	3	0.1		1	0	0
89		3	2		-	0	0.0		0
		2	1		-	2	No
		1	0		-	4	No
83	-88						No

Total:							0.4	%	5.1	1.2	0.2	0.0

Points (Full Screen)

Chance Will Make Playoffs (Full Screen)

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Thursday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Detroit 6 Buffalo 7 (so)	-0.4
Pittsburgh 4 Minnesota 1	+0.1
NY Islanders 6 Tampa Bay 1	+0.1
Nashville 3 Carolina 0	+0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Buffalo vs Carolina	-0.5-0.5-0.3+0.2+0.2+0.6
NY Islanders vs Philadelphia	+0.1+0.1+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.1
Detroit vs Pittsburgh	-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Washington vs Florida	-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1
Vancouver vs Calgary	-0.1+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.0+0.1
Ottawa vs Tampa Bay	+0.1+0.1+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1
Winnipeg vs Nashville	-0.1+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.0

						100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32

93	5	0		-	0														30	5	41	13	9	2	0
92	4	0		-	1														8	1	31	12	28	18	3
91	4	1		-	0														2	0	16	3	24	38	17
	3	0		-	2														0	0	8	3	23	43	23
90	3	1		-	1														0		2	0	6	36	56
	2	0		-	3														0		1	0	5	34	60
89	3	2		-	0																0		1	19	80
	2	1		-	2																		0	13	86
	1	0		-	4																		0	13	86
88	2	2		-	1																			2	98
	1	1		-	3																			2	98
	0	0		-	5																			2	98
87	2	3		-	0																				82	17	1	0
	1	2		-	2																				75	24	1	0
	0	1		-	4																				64	32	4	0
86	1	3		-	1																				53	39	8	0
	0	2		-	3																				47	42	10	1
85	1	4		-	0																				20	47	29	5	0
	0	3		-	2																				12	49	33	6	0
84	0	4		-	1																				3	25	44	25	3	0
83	0	5		-	0																					6	34	47	12	1

Total:																			1	0	5	1	6	15	59	9	3	1	0	0