Calgary Flames Playoff Chances 50/50

Beat Arizona 5-2, playoff odds up 0.01 to 99.99%
79 points   36 16-7

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Monday100.0*Pres Trophy
Calgary 5 Arizona 2 +0.5
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Columbus vs Tampa Bay+0.7*+0.1*+0.0-0.5-0.6-0.6
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Tuesday100.0*Pres Trophy
Philadelphia vs Tampa Bay+0.8*+0.0*+0.0-0.5-0.6-0.6

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Calgary finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
118-125In61.7%1003,270*
117183-2In44.010004,000*
116184-1In36.8100007,740*
115174-2In28.71000014,003*
114164-3In21.0990023,630*
113165-2In15.1990137,811*
112155-3In10.0981256,133*
111156-2In6.6961379,082*
110146-3In3.8923549,713
157-1In3.9933554,412*
109147-2In2.1884866,100
136-4In1.9875866,257*
108137-3In0.98171275,246
148-1In0.98171282,181*
107138-2In0.4731017087,608
127-4In0.4721018091,459*
106128-3In0.1621424091,840
139-1In0.16314240100,064*
105129-2In0.0521731095,320
118-4In0.04918330103,452*
104119-3In0.0382141092,795
1210-1In0.0412039059,082
108-5In0.0352243041,833*
1031110-2In0.0282349086,834
109-4InNo262351095,146*
1021010-3InNo172359177,099
1111-1InNo172359184,140*
1011011-2InNo112266265,319
910-4InNo92168272,287*
100911-3InNo51873453,210
1012-1InNo51873457,925*
99912-2InNo214776041,773
811-4InNo21477744,657*
98812-3InNo1107811062,951*
97813-2InNo067617044,407*
96713-3InNo047125029,460*
95714-2InNo264340018,662*
94614-3InNo155431011,132*
93615-2InNo04454106,326*
92515-399.9%No035622003,411*
91516-299.7No024695101,739*
90416-399.3No12719710820*
89417-295.5No116861131352*
88317-384.8No457717132138*
87318-268.3No345515228260*
86319-146.2No35123515426*
85219-216.7No885025812*
84119-3OutNo1001
83120-2OutNo1001
79023-0OutNo622313110179
Total:100.0%1.8%48133620000000002,241,098

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Calgary finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupSan JoseWinnipegNashvilleSt. LouisVegasDallasMinnesotaColoradoVancouverArizonaChicagoAnaheimEdmontonLos Angeles
125230-06.7%114320191391212131
124220-1No40202020
123221-0No1325131338
122211-1No377212814147
121201-24.813812211381413441
120202-18.62641420181189340
119192-25.902841719149911332
118193-17.102641720158911332
117183-26.3002641619159911332
116184-16.3002641719149912332
115174-26.50026417201510811332
114164-35.90026416201410911332
113165-26.10026416201410910332
112155-36.40026516191410911332
111156-26.0002661619139910332
110146-36.2003671619139910332
109147-26.2003610151813999332
136-46.1002610151812999432
108137-36.6003613151712989332
148-16.3003613151711989332
107138-26.2003617151611988332
127-46.1003618151510988332
106128-36.100362314149877322
139-16.300362314149877332
105129-26.300362813138876322
118-46.200363014128876322
104119-36.300363613107765321
1210-16.300363613107765321
1031110-26.21036431195764221
109-46.21035451185764321
1021010-36.21025521064653221
1111-16.11025511064653221
1011011-26.2202458853652211
100911-36.2202365632641211
99912-26.3301370421541211
98812-36.1401274311541211
97813-26.2501177211540211
96713-36.5600178110540211
95714-26.4600080100540211
94614-36.2600080000540211
93615-26.370008100044211
92515-36.48100780053211
91516-26.49200770043111
90416-35.7116217233101
89417-27.11741066033110
88418-13.61211155311
87318-210.071034522
86319-1No15427
85320-08.388
79-84No
Total:6.2%0.90.22.35.334.411.811.37.67.66.65.62.82.21.4
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Monday100.0*Lottery seed
Calgary 5 Arizona 2 -0.3
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
San Jose vs Boston+0.2+0.2+0.1-0.0-0.0-0.2
TuesdayNone

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT12345678910111213141516171819202122232425262728293031
125230-0946
123-124100
122211-1973
121201-28515
120202-17327
119192-26040
118193-15545
117183-244560
116184-1376300
115174-2297100
114164-32178000
113165-215840010
112155-310881020
111156-27891030
110146-34893050
109147-22864071
108137-3180611020
148-1181611020
107138-20738113400
127-40719214400
106128-306211316800
139-106210316800
105129-205211618130000
118-40491261914000
104119-3038111018220000
1210-103812918220000
1031110-2028101315321000
109-42691415341000
1021010-31771611443010
1111-11771611443010
1011011-21041865362110
100911-35216356952200
99912-22113154111224000
98812-31010045102328000
97813-20060338351141100
96713-30040214461202300
95714-221225102337000
94614-316049024317000
93615-202042212310100
92515-3013416145020000
91516-200241015850100
90416-301240689070000
89417-21136561101211
88317-345771717331
87318-23455152810822
86319-13512815238
85219-2883325817
84119-3100
83120-2100
79023-0181529251651
Total:2466710212401000000000000000000000