Calgary Flames Playoff Chances 50/50

Did not play, playoff odds up 0.04 to 43.9%
51 points   24 22-3

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Sunday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Chicago vs Vancouver+1.2*-0.1*+0.2-1.3-0.9-0.9
+0.1*+0.0*+0.0*-0.1*-0.0-0.1
Minnesota vs Nashville+0.9*+0.0*-0.1-0.6-0.7-0.7
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Monday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Toronto vs Calgary-7.2-1.0-1.3+4.7+5.8+5.9
-0.5*-0.1*+0.0+0.4+0.3+0.4
-0.0No-0.0*-0.0*-0.0+0.0
NY Rangers vs Los Angeles+1.4*+0.3*+0.3-0.9-1.4-1.1
+0.1*+0.0*-0.0*-0.0-0.2-0.1
Winnipeg vs Anaheim-0.3-0.7-0.6*-0.2*-0.1+0.6

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Calgary finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
117330-0In93.7%973159
111-112In25.01004*
110293-1In33.36717176*
109283-2In12.5584224*
108273-3In9.96230871*
107274-2In3.0424513135*
106264-3In2.2355510317*
105265-2In0.72057211722*
104255-3In0.218542531,307*
103256-2InNo104935502,476*
102246-3InNo54441914,200*
101236-4InNo336461417,086*
100237-3InNo1274722311,027*
99227-4InNo01945306017,105*
98228-3100.0%No0124037100024,958*
97218-4100.0No073243171035,708*
96219-399.9No0424452530048,425*
95209-499.6No215423470062,603*
942010-398.7No1936401310078,609*
931910-496.3No0528422130094,812*
921911-390.8No022038308100109,523*
911811-481.0No0112313716300123,546*
901812-366.7No007213825710133,992*
891712-450.1No041234331430140,692*
881713-333.6No026263623710142,691*
871613-419.9No0131634311320139,415*
861614-310.3No001927372150131,256*
851514-44.5No00419363190120,099*
841515-31.7No0021131391700107,043*
831415-40.6No00162442261091,137*
821416-30.2No0031642363075,725*
811316-40.1No011037466060,342*
801317-30.0No005295410046,395*
791217-4OutNo02215916134,592*
781218-3OutNo01145924224,948*
771118-4OutNo0095531417,567*
761119-3OutNo054939611,789*
751019-4OutNo034245107,554*
741020-3OutNo013450154,816*
73920-4OutNo12652212,868*
72921-3OutNo01954271,713*
71821-4OutNo115238932*
70822-3OutNo94943501*
69722-4OutNo83854241*
68723-3OutNo42967139*
67623-4OutNo247659*
66624-3OutNo3306733*
65524-4OutNo1006*
64525-3OutNo14867*
51-63OutNo100165*
Total:43.9%0.0%01410131515151410201,919,540

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Calgary finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupMinnesotaChicagoSan JoseAnaheimEdmontonNashvilleSt. LouisVancouverLos AngelesWinnipegDallasArizonaColorado
117330-04.4%13118913191466
112302-1NoYes
111303-0No6733
110293-1No171717171717
109283-24.2813251342584
108273-32.811101717610102134
107274-28.1110192476169351
106264-36.3118171768151043
105265-27.300182122471294300
104255-36.30119232255117330
103256-26.5002026254488220
102246-35.50122252634106120
101236-46.111252626238611
100237-36.41125282622751100
99227-46.3112729261175110
98228-35.9212729261174000
97218-46.4422828261164000
96219-36.3532828251164000
208-56.2632828251154000
95209-46.2942726240053000
2110-26.1842827240053000
198-66.41042726230053000
942010-36.21352724220043000
199-56.214527242100430000
2111-15.91352725220043000
931910-46.119725211900320000
2011-26.017726221900320000
189-65.919725211800320000
921911-35.62382218160022000
1810-55.72482218140022000
2012-15.92482218150021000
911811-45.22791914110011000
1912-25.22681814120011000
1710-64.827817131000110000
901812-34.427814108001100
1711-54.22681398001000
1913-14.026813107001000
891712-43.12279650000000
1813-23.42371076000000
881713-32.2175643000000
1612-51.9164532000000
871613-41.31033210000000
861614-30.6622110000000
851514-40.3311000000
841515-30.1100000000
831415-40.00000000
821416-30.0000000
811316-40.000000
801418-1No0
51-79No
Total:2.7%11.13.610.28.77.50.20.21.30.90.10.10.00.0
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Sunday100.0*Lottery seed
Chicago vs Vancouver-0.1+0.0-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Minnesota vs Nashville-0.1*+0.0*+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Monday100.0*Lottery seed
Toronto vs Calgary+1.1+0.2+0.2-0.8-0.9-0.9
NY Rangers vs Los Angeles-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Winnipeg vs Anaheim-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
117330-09433
112302-1100
111303-03367
110293-133331717
109283-2134642
108273-3105228163
107274-2339414651
106264-3232459451
105265-212044137122010
104255-301837175155021
103256-2102920324803300
102246-3522222251314600
101236-431421126172410010
100237-31819022205417121
99227-40415016218325203200
98228-3021001118122323055000
97218-400606121413561611100
96219-30033714033926192000
95209-402131102711552952000
942010-30101801910833776100
931910-400041171114081331000
921911-300025311038724531000
911811-400012190314337741000
901812-300001060211376109520000
891712-40003012034391413731000
881713-30002602615121816104100
871613-400013016026142119125100
861614-300001900271623211351000
851514-40040002818252313510
841515-30020013919262313410
831415-40010013102128231120
821416-3000001412243121700
811316-4000151630311510
801317-300002823372640
791217-400315353790
781218-300182846151
771118-40032050243
761119-30011248345
751019-400743429
741020-303364714
73920-402285120
72921-31205327
71821-40125137
70822-394942
69722-483854
68723-342967
67623-42476
66624-333067
65524-4100
64525-31486
51-63100
Total:00010112052311321423345666655410