Calgary Flames Playoff Chances 50/50

Did not play, playoff odds down 0.7 to 57.8%
22 points   11 8-0

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Sunday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Anaheim 3 Florida 2 -0.5
Detroit 3 Colorado 4 (ot)-0.3
Vegas 4 Los Angeles 2 +0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Monday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Washington vs Calgary-5.4-0.8-0.7+3.9+4.2+4.4
-0.3*-0.1*-0.0+0.3+0.3+0.3
-0.7-0.2-0.2+0.5+0.6+0.6
Minnesota vs New Jersey-0.3*-0.3*-0.3*+0.2*+0.1+0.4

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Calgary finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
121-148InYes100362*
1204611-6In97.9%99195*
1194612-5In99.5100195*
1184512-6In98.41000322*
1174513-5In95.99820510*
1164413-6In95.19720815*
1154313-7In93.997201,253*
1144314-6In90.796311,971*
1134214-7In85.894513,083*
1124215-6In80.392624,514*
1114115-7In73.6871036,416*
1104116-6In65.48313409,149*
1094016-7In54.977176012,476*
1084017-6In44.370219016,721*
1073917-7In33.76227120022,231*
1063918-6In23.252311610028,630*
1053818-7In14.04236201037,156*
1043718-8In7.43140263045,953*
1033719-7In3.422423150055,930*
1023619-8In1.314413671067,395*
1013620-7In0.383841111079,325*
1003520-8100.0%0.1433441730091,689*
993521-7100.00.022744225000102,807*
983421-899.90.012042287100114,638*
973422-799.6No0143833113000125,173*
963322-898.6No0932371561000133,320*
953323-795.9No05253717113100140,102*
943223-890.0No03183617168200145,103*
933224-779.1No212311520145100146,304*
923124-863.7No1725102121124100145,278*
913125-745.8No0418617251982000142,663*
903025-829.0No02123122426155100136,602*
893026-716.1No0171719282411300129,423*
882926-87.9No0040312252919610119,013*
872927-73.5No0020171930261220107,824*
862827-81.3No01003122632205097,276*
852828-70.5No00001620332810184,964*
842728-80.1No00000313303418273,472*
832729-70.1No00017233826561,957*
822629-80.0No0004173634951,957*
812630-70.0No00021032421442,364*
802530-80.0No001627462134,189*
792531-7OutNo00320492826,682*
782431-8OutNo00115473720,636*
772432-7OutNo0110444515,689*
762332-8OutNo006405411,817*
752333-7OutNo0435628,408*
742233-8OutNo0228706,080*
732234-7OutNo0124754,451*
722134-8OutNo118813,063*
712135-7OutNo015852,069*
702035-8OutNo011881,350*
692036-7OutNo991912*
681936-8OutNo793595*
671836-9OutNo496368*
661938-6OutNo496234*
651838-7OutNo298143*
641839-6OutNo19987*
22-63OutNo100312*
Total:57.8%2.3%51016166677776532,723,516

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Calgary finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupSt. LouisWinnipegVegasLos AngelesNashvilleSan JoseAnaheimColoradoChicagoVancouverMinnesotaDallasEdmontonArizona
148630-04.1%5688710510124101041
129506-7NoYes
128518-4NoYes
126498-6NoYes
125488-7No252550
124489-6No1717331717
1234810-510.555555516161126
1224710-64.4792114137119134242
1214711-510.44741615337697133
1204611-63.2561167651471111361
1194612-57.24787978812781051
1184512-66.266661111687109771
1174513-56.56898878766101051
1164413-65.2488889789710860
1154313-77.357788789979951
1144314-64.95678887998101051
1134214-76.167788989988931
1124215-66.5577888891099851
1114115-76.156788888898951
1104116-66.357898878988851
1094016-76.157898998988851
1084017-66.657998998888851
1073917-76.2569107998898841
1063918-66.45610107997797751
1053818-76.2561011710107797741
1043718-86.1561212710106696641
1033719-76.44513136111066105641
1023619-86.34514145111155105541
1013620-76.24415155121255104451
1003520-86.33416164121244114451
993521-76.33417174131333113351
983421-86.23318183141333122351
973422-76.34318183141322122251
963322-86.24418183131322122251
953323-76.05418173131322112251
943223-85.46517163121122101141
933224-74.975151331092181141
923124-84.06512102871161130
913125-72.954872551141120
903025-81.932551331030010
893026-71.021331220010010
883027-60.511110110010000
872927-70.200110000000000
862928-60.100000000000000
852727-90.00000000000000
842728-80.00000000000
832830-50.000000000
822629-80.000000
812630-7No0
802732-4No0
22-79No
Total:3.6%3.32.99.69.22.47.16.91.91.96.11.71.72.70.4
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Sunday100.0*Lottery seed
Anaheim 3 Florida 2 +0.1
Vegas 4 Los Angeles 2 -0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Monday100.0*Lottery seed
Washington vs Calgary+1.2+0.2+0.1-0.8-0.9-0.9
San Jose vs Anaheim-0.0+0.1+0.0+0.1+0.0-0.0
Nashville vs Winnipeg-0.0+0.0+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.0

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT12345678910111213141516171819202122232425262728293031
121-148100
1204611-69811
1194612-5991
1184512-69810
1174513-596220
1164413-695220
1154313-794320
1144314-691631
1134214-786851
1124215-6801162
1114115-77414103
1104116-66517130400
1094016-755221706000
1084017-644262118000
1073917-73428251110000
1063918-6232929314111000
1053818-7142832517211000
1043718-8724328204303000
1033719-731930122065050000
1023619-8113251717109070010
1013620-708182013131411011100
1003520-8041122815182132202000
993521-7026214142151354040000
983421-801317111201012880711000
973422-7011307151581213110230000
963322-8009031019413173114601000
953323-70050151911019898913100
943223-8003021606151461112472000
933224-70201110310183121191262000
923124-801007151919714141372000
913125-70004021606215111714831000
903025-80002011103111514191710510000
893026-7001007107271420191362100
882926-80000400302714212116831000
872927-7000201002614212218941000
862827-8001000026132023191041000
852828-7000000001513212420104100
842728-80000000251322252010300
832729-7000002614242618820
822629-80000271726261651
812630-70000139213024112
802530-800014142731194
792531-700282133288
782431-8001314323515
772432-70028264123
762332-8004204233
752333-7002144242
742233-80193753
732234-70063261
722134-8032671
712135-7022177
702035-8011782
692036-701386
681936-801089
671836-9694
661938-6694
651838-7397
641839-6298
22-63100
Total:2345335633553333333333333333221