Washington Nationals Playoff Chances 2018

Lost to Mets 470-471.5, playoff odds down 8.1 to 25.2%

0-1-0 .000

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Chances based on how well the Nationals finish out the regular season. Explain

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TW		W	-	L	-	T	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	Count

17.5	-19						In		100												769	*
17		17	-	2	-	0	In		100	0											1,254	*
16	.5	16	-	2	-	1	In		99	1											880	*
16		16	-	3	-	0	In		97	2		0									7,243	*
15	.5	15	-	3	-	1	In		95	5	0	1									4,535	*
15		15	-	4	-	0	In		89	9	0	2									27,444
		14	-	3	-	2	In		91	8	0	1									1,340	*
14	.5	14	-	4	-	1	In		81	16	0	3									16,662	*
14		14	-	5	-	0	99.9	%	66	25	2	7	0								80,284
		13	-	4	-	2	100.0		67	25	2	7	0								4,764	*
13	.5	13	-	5	-	1	99.8		50	34	4	11	0								46,517	*
13		13	-	6	-	0	98.6		31	39	9	19	1	0							187,464
		12	-	5	-	2	98.6		32	39	9	18	1	0							12,164	*
12	.5	12	-	6	-	1	95.6		16	38	16	26	4	0							98,289
		11	-	5	-	3	95.6		16	37	17	25	4	0							1,952	*
12		12	-	7	-	0	85.6		6	26	23	31	13	2	0	0					341,792
		11	-	6	-	2	86.4		6	27	23	31	12	1	0						24,082	*
11	.5	11	-	7	-	1	69.3		1	14	26	29	24	6	1	0					166,173
		10	-	6	-	3	68.5		1	14	26	28	25	6	1	0					3,607	*
11		11	-	8	-	0	43.3		0	5	21	18	32	19	5	1	0	0			505,554
		10	-	7	-	2	44.6		0	5	21	18	31	19	4	0	0				37,340	*
10	.5	10	-	8	-	1	21.2		0	1	14	6	27	33	16	3	0	0			225,009
		9	-	7	-	3	20.3			1	13	6	26	33	17	3	0				5,026	*
10		10	-	9	-	0	8.4		0	0	7	2	12	29	31	16	4	0	0		608,795
		9	-	8	-	2	8.5			0	7	1	11	29	32	16	4	0	0		45,710	*
9	.5	9	-	9	-	1	2.8			0	3	0	2	13	31	32	15	3	0	0	245,822
		8	-	8	-	3	2.6				2	0	2	13	32	33	15	2	0		5,721	*
9		9	-	10	-	0	0.9			0	1	0	0	4	16	32	31	14	3	0	599,305
		8	-	9	-	2	0.9				1	0	0	3	16	32	31	14	3	0	45,600	*
8	.5	8	-	10	-	1	0.2				0		0	0	4	18	36	30	10	1	218,639
		7	-	9	-	3	0.1				0			1	4	18	35	31	11	1	4,856	*
8		8	-	11	-	0	0.0				0			0	1	7	24	38	25	6	484,264
		7	-	10	-	2	0.0				0			0	1	6	23	38	26	6	35,682	*
7	.5	7	-	11	-	1	0.0				0				0	1	10	33	41	15	156,857
		6	-	10	-	3	Out									1	9	33	41	16	3,397	*
7		7	-	12	-	0	0.0				0				0	0	4	20	45	31	318,090
		6	-	11	-	2	Out								0	0	3	20	45	32	22,349	*
6	.5	6	-	12	-	1	Out									0	1	9	40	50	90,459
		5	-	11	-	3	Out									0	1	9	38	51	1,775	*
6		6	-	13	-	0	Out									0	0	4	30	66	168,146
		5	-	12	-	2	Out										0	4	29	67	11,349	*
5	.5	5	-	13	-	1	Out										0	1	19	80	41,940	*
5		5	-	14	-	0	Out										0	0	12	88	70,716
		4	-	13	-	2	Out											0	12	88	4,082	*
4	.5	4	-	14	-	1	Out											0	6	94	14,490	*
4		4	-	15	-	0	Out											0	3	97	24,597	*
3	.5	3	-	15	-	1	Out												1	99	3,764	*
3		3	-	16	-	0	Out												1	99	5,885	*
2	.5	2	-	16	-	1	Out												0	100	712	*
0	-2						Out													100	1,766	*

Total:							25.2	%	5	6	7	7	8	9	9	10	10	10	10	9	5,034,912

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TW		W	-	L	-	T	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24

18.5	-19						100
18		18	-	1	-	0	99	1
17	.5	17	-	1	-	1	98	2
17		17	-	2	-	0	98	2	0
16	.5	16	-	2	-	1	92	8	1
16		16	-	3	-	0	89	10	0	0
15	.5	15	-	3	-	1	70	26	3	0
15		15	-	4	-	0	68	27	4	0	0
14	.5	14	-	4	-	1	35	40	19	5	1	0	0
14		14	-	5	-	0	34	41	20	5	1	0	0		0
		13	-	4	-	2	8	24	31	24	10	3	0	0	0
13	.5	13	-	5	-	1	7	22	32	24	11	3	1	0	0	0
13		13	-	6	-	0	6	22	31	25	11	3	0	0	1	0
		12	-	5	-	2	0	3	10	21	28	23	11	2	1	0	0
12	.5	12	-	6	-	1	0	3	9	20	27	23	11	3	4	1	0	0	0
12		12	-	7	-	0	0	2	8	18	24	21	10	2	12	2	0	0	0
		11	-	6	-	2		0	0	2	8	20	32	24	5	5	3	1	0	0	0
11	.5	11	-	7	-	1		0	0	1	6	15	26	21	10	11	6	2	1	0	0	0	0
11		11	-	8	-	0		0	0	1	3	10	16	13	18	21	12	4	1	0	0	0
		10	-	7	-	2				0	0	1	9	34	1	5	11	14	12	8	3	1	0	0	0	0
10	.5	10	-	8	-	1				0	0	0	4	17	2	8	15	19	17	11	5	1	0	0	0
		9	-	7	-	3						0	1	20	0	0	1	3	8	14	18	17	12	6	2	0	0	0
10		10	-	9	-	0				0	0	0	1	7	2	8	16	22	21	14	7	2	0	0	0
		9	-	8	-	2							0	8	0	0	1	3	8	15	19	20	15	8	3	1	0	0	0	0
9	.5	9	-	9	-	1							0	3	0	0	1	2	7	14	21	22	17	9	4	1	0	0	0
		8	-	8	-	3								3					0	0	2	7	14	22	23	17	9	3	1	0
9		9	-	10	-	0						0	0	1	0	0	0	2	6	13	20	22	18	11	4	1	0	0	0
		8	-	9	-	2							0	1				0	0	0	2	6	14	21	24	18	10	3	1	0
8	.5	8	-	10	-	1							0	0			0	0	0	0	2	5	13	21	24	19	11	4	1	0
		7	-	9	-	3								0							0	0	1	3	10	20	28	24	12	3
8		8	-	11	-	0								0				0	0	0	1	5	12	20	24	21	12	4	1	0
		7	-	10	-	2								0							0	0	0	2	8	19	28	26	14	3
7	.5	7	-	11	-	1								0						0	0	0	0	2	7	17	27	27	15	4
7		7	-	12	-	0								0						0	0	0	0	2	7	17	27	28	16	4
		6	-	11	-	2																		0	0	2	9	26	39	24
6	.5	6	-	12	-	1																		0	0	2	9	25	39	26
6		6	-	13	-	0																		0	0	2	8	24	39	27
		5	-	12	-	2																				0	1	7	31	61
5	.5	5	-	13	-	1																				0	1	6	31	62
5		5	-	14	-	0																				0	1	6	31	63
		4	-	13	-	2																						1	13	86
4	.5	4	-	14	-	1																					0	1	12	87
4		4	-	15	-	0																					0	1	11	88
3	.5	3	-	15	-	1																						0	3	97
3		3	-	16	-	0																						0	3	97
2	.5	2	-	16	-	1																							1	99
2		2	-	17	-	0																							0	100
1	.5	1	-	17	-	1																								100
1		1	-	18	-	0																							1	99
0	-0.5																													100

Total:							2	2	3	3	3	4	4	5	3	4	4	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	4