Minnesota Twins Playoff Chances 2018

Beat Royals 339-312.5, playoff odds up 12.6 to 45.9%

1-0-0 1.000

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Chances based on how well the Twins finish out the regular season. Explain

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TW		W	-	L	-	T	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	Count

18.5	-20						In		100												908	*
18		17	-	2	-	0	In		100	0											1,845	*
17	.5	16	-	2	-	1	In		100	0											1,169	*
17		16	-	3	-	0	In		99	1		0									9,925	*
16	.5	15	-	3	-	1	In		99	1	0	0									6,090	*
16		15	-	4	-	0	In		97	3	0	0									36,029
		14	-	3	-	2	In		97	3	0	0									1,773	*
15	.5	14	-	4	-	1	In		94	6	0	1									21,474	*
15		14	-	5	-	0	100.0	%	87	11	0	2	0								100,934
		13	-	4	-	2	In		88	10	0	2									5,892	*
14	.5	13	-	5	-	1	100.0		79	17	1	3	0								56,942	*
14		13	-	6	-	0	99.9		64	27	2	7	0								220,834
		12	-	5	-	2	99.9		65	27	2	6	0								14,316	*
13	.5	12	-	6	-	1	99.8		48	36	5	11	0	0							113,915
		11	-	5	-	3	99.8		49	35	5	11	0								2,324	*
13		12	-	7	-	0	98.7		29	40	11	18	1	0	0						385,796
		11	-	6	-	2	98.7		30	40	11	17	1	0							27,158	*
12	.5	11	-	7	-	1	95.9		14	38	18	25	4	0	0						182,058
		10	-	6	-	3	95.9		15	39	18	24	4	0							3,881	*
12		11	-	8	-	0	86.8		5	27	25	29	12	1	0	0					541,255
		10	-	7	-	2	87.4		5	27	26	29	11	1	0	0					39,928	*
11	.5	10	-	8	-	1	71.0		1	14	28	27	23	5	0	0					234,953
		9	-	7	-	3	71.6		1	13	29	28	23	5	1						5,204	*
11		10	-	9	-	0	46.7		0	5	24	17	31	18	4	0	0	0			619,754
		9	-	8	-	2	47.3		0	5	25	17	30	18	4	0	0				46,401	*
10	.5	9	-	9	-	1	24.1		0	1	16	7	26	32	15	3	0	0			244,220
		8	-	8	-	3	25.2		0	1	17	7	26	31	15	3	0				5,592	*
10		9	-	10	-	0	10.9		0	0	9	2	12	29	30	15	3	0	0		579,435
		8	-	9	-	2	10.8			0	9	2	12	29	30	15	3	0	0		43,785	*
9	.5	8	-	10	-	1	3.9			0	4	0	2	14	32	31	13	2	0	0	206,351
		7	-	9	-	3	3.6			0	3	0	2	16	32	30	13	2	0		4,616	*
9		8	-	11	-	0	1.5			0	1	0	0	4	17	32	29	12	2	0	442,710
		7	-	10	-	2	1.4			0	1	0	0	4	17	33	29	13	2	0	32,901	*
8	.5	7	-	11	-	1	0.3				0		0	0	5	20	36	29	9	1	140,007
		6	-	10	-	3	0.5				1			0	5	19	36	29	10	1	2,994	*
8		7	-	12	-	0	0.1				0		0	0	1	8	25	38	23	5	275,568
		6	-	11	-	2	0.1				0			0	1	7	24	38	24	5	19,391	*
7	.5	6	-	12	-	1	0.0				0				0	2	11	34	39	14	77,715	*
7		6	-	13	-	0	Out								0	0	4	22	44	30	138,991
		5	-	12	-	2	Out									0	4	21	44	31	9,173	*
6	.5	5	-	13	-	1	Out									0	1	10	40	49	33,523	*
6		5	-	14	-	0	Out									0	0	4	31	65	55,973
		4	-	13	-	2	Out										0	4	32	65	3,226	*
5	.5	4	-	14	-	1	Out										0	1	19	80	11,199	*
5		4	-	15	-	0	Out											0	11	89	18,146	*
4	.5	3	-	15	-	1	Out											0	6	94	2,747	*
4		3	-	16	-	0	Out												3	97	4,076	*
3	.5	2	-	16	-	1	Out												1	99	494	*
3		2	-	17	-	0	Out												0	100	668	*
1	-2.5						Out													100	653	*

Total:							45.9	%	12	12	12	11	10	9	8	7	7	6	4	3	5,034,912

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TW		W	-	L	-	T	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24

19	-20						100
18	.5	17	-	1	-	1	99	1
18		17	-	2	-	0	100	0
17	.5	16	-	2	-	1	99	1
17		16	-	3	-	0	98	2
16	.5	15	-	3	-	1	93	7	0
16		15	-	4	-	0	92	8	0	0
15	.5	14	-	4	-	1	75	22	3	0	0
15		14	-	5	-	0	74	23	3	0	0				0
		13	-	4	-	2	43	40	14	3	0	0
14	.5	13	-	5	-	1	42	39	15	3	0	0			0
14		13	-	6	-	0	41	39	16	3	0	0	0		0
		12	-	5	-	2	11	29	32	19	7	1	0	0	0
13	.5	12	-	6	-	1	11	28	32	20	7	2	0	0	0	0
		11	-	5	-	3	1	6	16	26	26	17	6	1	0
13		12	-	7	-	0	10	27	32	20	8	2	0	0	1	0
		11	-	6	-	2	1	5	16	25	27	18	6	1	1	0	0
12	.5	11	-	7	-	1	1	5	14	24	26	18	7	1	4	1	0	0
		10	-	6	-	3		0	1	4	13	28	34	17	2	2	1	0	0
12		11	-	8	-	0	0	4	12	22	24	17	7	1	12	2	0	0	0
		10	-	7	-	2	0	0	1	3	12	24	30	17	6	5	2	0	0	0
11	.5	10	-	8	-	1	0	0	0	3	9	19	25	14	13	10	4	1	0	0	0
		9	-	7	-	3					0	3	19	49	2	5	8	7	5	2	1	0	0
11		10	-	9	-	0	0	0	0	2	6	13	17	10	23	19	8	2	0	0	0
		9	-	8	-	2				0	0	2	12	33	2	8	13	13	9	5	2	0	0	0	0
10	.5	9	-	9	-	1				0	0	1	6	17	3	12	19	19	13	7	3	1	0	0	0
		8	-	8	-	3							1	24	0	0	1	5	11	16	17	14	7	3	1	0	0
10		9	-	10	-	0				0	0	0	2	8	4	13	21	22	16	9	3	1	0	0	0	0
		8	-	9	-	2						0	0	10	0	0	1	5	12	19	20	16	10	5	1	0	0	0
9	.5	8	-	10	-	1							0	4	0	0	1	5	11	19	22	19	11	5	2	0	0	0
		7	-	9	-	3								4					0	1	4	10	19	23	21	12	5	1	0
9		8	-	11	-	0						0	0	1	0	0	1	4	11	19	23	20	13	6	2	0	0	0
		7	-	10	-	2							0	1				0	0	1	3	9	18	24	21	14	6	2	0	0
8	.5	7	-	11	-	1							0	0			0	0	0	1	3	9	17	24	23	15	7	2	0	0
		6	-	10	-	3								1							0	0	1	4	12	23	28	21	8	2
8		7	-	12	-	0								0			0	0	0	0	2	8	16	24	23	16	8	2	0	0
		6	-	11	-	2								0							0	0	1	3	11	23	28	21	10	2
7	.5	6	-	12	-	1								0							0	0	1	3	10	21	28	23	11	2
7		6	-	13	-	0															0	0	1	3	9	21	28	24	12	2
		5	-	12	-	2																		0	0	3	12	29	36	20
6	.5	5	-	13	-	1																		0	0	2	11	28	37	21
6		5	-	14	-	0																		0	0	2	11	27	38	22
		4	-	13	-	2																				0	1	8	35	56
5	.5	4	-	14	-	1																				0	1	8	32	58
5		4	-	15	-	0																			0	0	1	7	32	60
4	.5	3	-	15	-	1																					0	1	13	86
4		3	-	16	-	0																						1	13	87
3	.5	2	-	16	-	1																							4	96
3		2	-	17	-	0																							2	98
1	-2.5																													100

Total:							6	6	6	6	6	6	5	5	6	5	5	5	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	1