Seattle Mariners Playoff Chances 2018

Lost to Rangers 271-386, playoff odds down 18.7 to 14.6%

0-1-0 .000

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Chances based on how well the Mariners finish out the regular season. Explain

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TW		W	-	L	-	T	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	Count

17	-19						In		100												931	*
16	.5	16	-	2	-	1	In		99	1		0									274	*
16		16	-	3	-	0	In		98	1		0									2,410	*
15	.5	15	-	3	-	1	In		95	3		1									1,639	*
15		15	-	4	-	0	100.0	%	89	8	0	3	0								11,205	*
14	.5	14	-	4	-	1	100.0		80	14	0	6	0								7,000	*
14		14	-	5	-	0	99.9		66	22	1	11	0								38,826	*
13	.5	13	-	5	-	1	99.6		50	30	3	17	0								22,940	*
13		13	-	6	-	0	97.8		30	34	8	26	2	0							99,554
		12	-	5	-	2	98.1		31	35	7	25	2	0							6,665	*
12	.5	12	-	6	-	1	94.1		15	33	13	33	6	0	0						58,231	*
12		12	-	7	-	0	81.9		5	22	18	37	16	2	0	0					215,909
		11	-	6	-	2	83.4		6	23	18	37	15	2	0						15,266	*
11	.5	11	-	7	-	1	64.1		1	11	20	32	28	7	1	0					114,220
		10	-	6	-	3	63.8		1	13	18	31	29	7	1						2,553	*
11		11	-	8	-	0	37.8		0	4	15	19	35	21	5	1	0				374,245
		10	-	7	-	2	38.7		0	4	15	19	35	21	5	0	0				27,886	*
10	.5	10	-	8	-	1	16.9		0	1	10	7	28	34	17	4	0	0			181,549
		9	-	7	-	3	16.2			1	9	6	28	35	16	4	0	0			4,104	*
10		10	-	9	-	0	6.1			0	5	2	12	30	32	16	4	0	0	0	533,461
		9	-	8	-	2	5.7			0	4	1	12	30	32	16	4	0	0		40,502	*
9	.5	9	-	9	-	1	1.7			0	2	0	2	14	32	33	15	3	0	0	235,643
		8	-	8	-	3	1.6				2	0	2	13	32	33	16	3	0	0	5,186	*
9		9	-	10	-	0	0.5			0	1	0	0	4	16	32	30	13	3	0	618,521
		8	-	9	-	2	0.5				1	0	0	4	16	32	31	14	3	0	46,791	*
8	.5	8	-	10	-	1	0.1				0		0	0	4	19	36	30	10	1	245,832
		7	-	9	-	3	0.1				0			0	4	19	35	30	10	1	5,660	*
8		8	-	11	-	0	0.0				0		0	0	1	7	24	38	25	5	587,883
		7	-	10	-	2	0.0				0			0	1	7	24	38	25	5	43,879	*
7	.5	7	-	11	-	1	0.0				0			0	0	1	11	33	40	15	206,875
		6	-	10	-	3	Out								0	2	10	33	40	15	4,534	*
7		7	-	12	-	0	Out								0	0	4	21	45	30	453,157
		6	-	11	-	2	Out								0	0	3	21	45	31	32,122	*
6	.5	6	-	12	-	1	Out								0	0	1	10	40	49	139,511
		5	-	11	-	3	Out										0	9	40	50	2,807	*
6		6	-	13	-	0	Out									0	0	4	31	65	282,956
		5	-	12	-	2	Out										0	4	30	66	18,606	*
5	.5	5	-	13	-	1	Out										0	1	19	79	76,256	*
5		5	-	14	-	0	Out										0	0	12	88	140,419
		4	-	13	-	2	Out											0	11	89	8,260	*
4	.5	4	-	14	-	1	Out											0	6	94	31,514	*
4		4	-	15	-	0	Out											0	3	97	54,100
		3	-	14	-	2	Out												2	98	2,671	*
3	.5	3	-	15	-	1	Out												1	99	9,791	*
3		3	-	16	-	0	Out												0	100	15,912	*
2	.5	2	-	16	-	1	Out												0	100	2,068	*
2		2	-	17	-	0	Out												0	100	3,341	*
1	.5	1	-	17	-	1	Out													100	266	*
1		1	-	18	-	0	Out												0	100	425	*
0	-0.5						Out													100	556	*

Total:							14.6	%	2	3	4	5	7	8	9	10	11	12	14	16	5,034,912

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TW		W	-	L	-	T	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24

17.5	-19						100
17		17	-	2	-	0	99	1
16	.5	16	-	2	-	1	90	10
16		16	-	3	-	0	91	9	0
15	.5	15	-	3	-	1	72	25	4	0
15		15	-	4	-	0	68	27	5	1	0				0
14	.5	14	-	4	-	1	33	42	19	5	1	0			0
14		14	-	5	-	0	31	40	21	6	1	0	0		0
13	.5	13	-	5	-	1	6	21	31	25	12	3	1	0	0	0
13		13	-	6	-	0	6	20	31	25	12	3	0	0	2	0	0
		12	-	5	-	2	0	2	9	20	29	25	11	2	1	0
12	.5	12	-	6	-	1	0	2	8	18	27	24	12	3	5	1	0	0	0
12		12	-	7	-	0	0	1	6	15	23	22	11	2	14	3	0	0	0
		11	-	6	-	2		0	0	1	6	18	31	26	5	6	4	1	0	0	0
11	.5	11	-	7	-	1	0	0	0	1	4	13	25	21	10	13	9	3	1	0	0	0	0
11		11	-	8	-	0	0	0	0	1	2	7	15	13	17	23	15	6	1	0	0	0	0
		10	-	7	-	2					0	1	7	31	1	4	10	15	14	10	4	1	0	0	0
10	.5	10	-	8	-	1				0	0	0	3	14	1	5	13	19	20	15	7	2	0	0	0
		9	-	7	-	3							0	16		0	0	2	5	11	17	19	16	9	3	1	0	0
10		10	-	9	-	0					0	0	1	5	1	6	13	21	23	17	9	3	1	0	0	0
		9	-	8	-	2							0	6	0	0	0	2	5	12	18	21	18	11	4	1	0	0	0	0
9	.5	9	-	9	-	1							0	2	0	0	0	2	5	11	18	22	20	12	5	1	0	0	0
		8	-	8	-	3								2					0	0	2	4	11	19	24	21	11	4	1	0
9		9	-	10	-	0						0	0	1	0	0	0	1	4	10	18	23	21	14	6	2	0	0	0	0
		8	-	9	-	2								1				0	0	0	1	4	11	19	24	22	13	5	1	0
8	.5	8	-	10	-	1								0				0	0	0	1	4	10	18	24	22	14	5	1	0
		7	-	9	-	3								0								0	0	2	7	16	28	27	15	4
8		8	-	11	-	0								0				0	0	0	1	3	9	17	24	23	15	6	1	0
		7	-	10	-	2								0								0	0	2	6	15	27	28	17	4
7	.5	7	-	11	-	1								0						0	0	0	0	1	6	15	26	29	18	5
		6	-	10	-	3																			0	1	8	24	39	27
7		7	-	12	-	0															0	0	0	1	5	14	26	30	19	5
		6	-	11	-	2																		0	0	1	8	23	39	28
6	.5	6	-	12	-	1																		0	0	1	7	22	40	30
		5	-	11	-	3																				0	0	6	30	63
6		6	-	13	-	0																		0	0	1	6	22	40	31
		5	-	12	-	2																				0	1	5	30	64
5	.5	5	-	13	-	1																			0	0	0	5	28	66
5		5	-	14	-	0																				0	0	5	28	67
		4	-	13	-	2																					0	0	11	89
4	.5	4	-	14	-	1																					0	0	11	89
4		4	-	15	-	0																					0	0	10	89
		3	-	14	-	2																							3	97
3	.5	3	-	15	-	1																						0	3	97
3		3	-	16	-	0																						0	2	98
2	.5	2	-	16	-	1																							0	100
2		2	-	17	-	0																							1	99
1	.5	1	-	17	-	1																								100
1		1	-	18	-	0																							0	100
0	-0.5																													100

Total:							1	1	1	2	2	2	3	3	2	3	3	4	4	4	5	5	5	6	6	6	7	7	8	9